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Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — August 17, 2026

August 17, 20267 racesAll Fort Erie picks

Fort Erie is back in action on Monday, August 17 with a seven-race card, and conditions are about as good as you can ask for — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 80°F should keep the turf in good shape and the dirt playing fair all afternoon.

We've got a mix of claiming races, a pair of Starter Optional Claiming events, and an allowance spot sprinkled in, which means there's something for every kind of bettor today. Three of those races open for free, and TrackWiz analysis goes deep on all seven for subscribers.

A couple of turf sprints stand out on the card, and the pace scenarios in the dirt sprints look like they'll set up for some honest pace and clear stretch battles. Let's break it all down.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite isn't the top-rated horse in this 6-furlong dirt claimer — Bingo's Grind holds the edge on our model and offers real overlay value at 5/1.

win2Bingo's GrindML 5/1

Bingo's Grind tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 despite being posted at 5/1 on the morning line — that's the kind of disconnect we love to exploit. Trainer Michael V. Cohen has Kirk Johnson up, a reliable combination at this level. With a 15% career win rate, this horse knows how to get to the wire, and the rating edge over the chalk is significant enough to make him our top selection.

place1A La CarteML 8/5

A La Carte is the public's choice at 8/5 for a reason — an 83.74 rating puts her right in the mix, and trainer Nick Guy Mileni, Jr. conditions her well for six furlongs on dirt. With Leo Salles in the irons and a 13% career win rate, she's a solid safety net if Bingo's Grind runs into trouble.

show3CantucciML 7/2

Cantucci at 7/2 rounds out a logical exacta and trifecta spread. The 80.48 TrackWiz rating is the third-best in the field, and Alexis Sanchez gives this barn a capable pilot. At a fair price, Cantucci is a smart inclusion in multi-leg wagers without breaking the bank.

Race 2

8:58 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Shes Hot to Trot carries the top rating by a wide margin in this 6.5-furlong dirt claimer, yet the morning line has her off at 9/2 — a potential overlay with real juice behind it.

win2Shes Hot to TrotML 9/2

Shes Hot to Trot has the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 84.90, and she's being sent off at 9/2 behind a morning line favorite in Alta Calibre whose rating (46.27) is nearly 40 points lower — that gap is glaring. Trainer Julie Mathes saddles both of her top horses today, and Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin gets the call on this one, suggesting connections prefer her as the barn's primary runner. An 8% career win rate sounds modest, but these figures often understate horses who run in tougher spots; today's conditions look favorable.

place1Frac AmourML 3/1

Frac Amour is the other Mathes runner in this spot, carrying a 73.45 rating and a 10% career win rate at 3/1. Kirk Johnson knows this barn's horses well, and drawing the rail at 6.5 furlongs gives Frac Amour a chance to control or sit just off a contested pace. A strong place candidate if Shes Hot to Trot runs the top of the race.

show5SigiriyaML 5/1

Sigiriya at 5/1 posts a 58.26 rating and a 14% career win rate — one of the stronger win percentages among the realistic contenders. Trainer Sharon Ceccato keeps horses competitive at this level, and Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin's presence on Shes Hot to Trot leaves Gaskin off this one, though Sigiriya still has capable handling. A useful show play and an affordable exotic inclusion.

Race 3

9:26 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

The 5-furlong turf sprint features a clear class standout in Galvaston, whose rating towers over the field — but a fair price and turf surface make the race more interesting than it appears on paper.

win7GalvastonML 3/1

Galvaston is the horse to beat at 3/1, packing an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the highest in today's card through Race 3 and a full eight points clear of the next challenger in this spot. Ismael Eluid Mosqueira gets the mount for trainer George Newland, who has shown a knack for placing horses effectively. A 6% career win rate suggests Galvaston has faced tough competition, which makes today's Starter Optional Claiming spot look like a comfortable opportunity. We're on at a price.

place1Rye's My GuyML 6/1

Rye's My Guy brings a 79.44 rating and a 13% career win rate, and trainer Sharon Ceccato has multiple runners live on the card today — always a sign of a barn firing on all cylinders. Juan Crawford handles the mount from the rail, giving Rye's My Guy a clean look in a five-furlong sprint where early position is crucial. The 6/1 price makes the place ticket genuinely attractive.

show4Vamos ViejoML 5/2

Vamos Viejo sits just below Rye's My Guy at a 78.81 rating and checks in at 5/2 on the morning line. Trainer Debra E. Rombis has Jose Luis Campos aboard, and a 12% career win rate tells us this horse competes honestly. With two strong horses rated above him and several rated well below, a show finish is the realistic outcome — and 5/2 makes it worth including.

Our three free looks today span the early part of the card and give you a real foundation to build on. Galvaston in Race 3 is the name we keep circling — a 3/1 morning line on the turf at five furlongs with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating, the highest of the free-race group. Five-furlong turf sprints at Fort Erie reward horses that can find a clean trip early, and our analysis likes Galvaston's profile here.

In the dirt openers, Bingo's Grind (Race 1) and Shes Hot to Trot (Race 2) both carry solid ratings in the mid-84 range and are pegged at 5/1 and 9/2 respectively on the morning line — which means there's potential value if they hit the board. The six-furlong and six-and-a-half-furlong distances in those races tend to favor horses that can press or stalk a honest pace, and we'll flag those pace scenarios in the full breakdowns.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:54 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This is a premium race requiring a TrackWiz subscription — and Ashcar Nellie's dominant 87.81 rating with a 31% career win rate makes a compelling case for why serious players will want full access.

win4Ashcar NellieML 5/2

Ashcar Nellie is the most dominant favorite on today's entire card, posting an 87.81 TrackWiz rating alongside a 31% career win rate — that combination at 5/2 is not a bad price at all. Trainer Kevin Buttigieg puts Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin up, and with an average speed figure of 55, Ashcar Nellie matches the top tier in this six-furlong dirt claimer. When a horse with nearly one-in-three lifetime victories shows up with the field's top rating, you don't need a complicated angle — you need a ticket.

place6Silent PassionML 9/2

Silent Passion backs up the top selection with an 81.94 rating and a strong 20% career win rate, making her a natural place anchor at 9/2. Trainer Nick Guy Mileni, Jr. runs Helen Marie Vanek, and with an average speed of 55 matching the class of the race, Silent Passion has the form to be finishing when it counts. The price makes her an ideal exacta partner underneath Ashcar Nellie.

show7RiflingML 6/1

Rifling at 6/1 rates as the clear third choice on TrackWiz metrics, holding a 56.06 rating with a 13% career win rate under trainer Michael J. Blake. The 6/1 morning line represents fair value for a show play, and with an average speed of 54, Rifling isn't giving up much to the top two physically. A logical trifecta anchor for bettors looking to structure their exotics.

Race 5

10:22 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Free Charging's rating tops this 5.5-furlong claiming field but she's done it in limited starts — this is a wide-open sprint where the pace could set up for a closer, and Porshas Run at 12/1 is quietly intriguing.

win4Free ChargingML 7/2

Free Charging earns the top rating in this field at 80.22 despite going off at 7/2 — that's a mild overlay relative to the quality she brings. Trainer Beverly Jeanette Curto sends out Steve Jadoo, and while a 5% career win rate is low, TrackWiz analysis suggests the overall body of work grades well at this distance. Her speed average of 53 over 5.5 furlongs is workable, and the rating advantage over the second choice is meaningful enough to make her the selection.

place2Hobbie ClassML 5/2

Hobbie Class is the morning line favorite at 5/2 with a 75.54 rating and a 14% career win rate — she's clearly the public's pick for good reason. Trainer Julie Belhumeur sends out Corey Jordan, and the combination of a solid career win rate and the second-highest rating in the field makes Hobbie Class the natural place play. If Free Charging stumbles at all, she'll be right there.

show3Porshas RunML 12/1

Here's the angle: Porshas Run comes in at 12/1 on the morning line but posts a 73.96 TrackWiz rating — third in this field and within two points of the place pick. Trainer Michael V. Cohen has Kirk Johnson in the saddle, a pairing that fires regularly at this track. At a massive overlay on the morning line relative to her actual rating, Porshas Run is a legitimate show value play and a strong trifecta option for the price-conscious bettor.

Race 6

10:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The public will key on the 2/1 morning line favorite Mo Argento, but Brengungirl's 84.17 TrackWiz rating tops this allowance field and she's being sent off at a very generous 5/1.

win5BrengungirlML 5/1

Brengungirl is the play here at 5/1, with an 84.17 rating that leads this allowance field by a clear margin. Trainer Joseph Humber puts Juan Crawford aboard, and a 16% career win rate tells you this horse competes — she's not just filling a spot. At 5.5 furlongs on dirt, speed out of the gate matters, and Brengungirl's 54 average speed is right in line with the class of the race. Beating the morning line favorite by that much on the ratings while paying 5/1? That's the definition of a value play.

place6SobiechML 4/1

Sobiech at 4/1 is the logical place anchor, sitting just behind Brengungirl with a 76.97 rating and a 16% career win rate matching his stablemate Brengungirl's lifetime mark. Trainer Dale A. Powell puts Leo Salles up — a rider who knows Fort Erie well. If Brengungirl handles the pace scenario, Sobiech has the profile to grind out second money.

show7Mo ArgentoML 2/1

Mo Argento opens as the 2/1 favorite and carries a 71.23 rating alongside a 20% career win rate — the strongest win percentage of the top three. Trainer Nick Guy Mileni, Jr. and Helen Marie Vanek have connected multiple times today, and with the highest average speed figure in the field at 55, Mo Argento clearly has tactical speed. She's a show hedge for anyone using Brengungirl on top, and if the pace collapses, she could easily beat that.

Race 7

11:18 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

Seven furlongs on the Fort Erie turf with a deep nine-horse field — the pace figures to be honest, which should set things up beautifully for Knotty and Nice, who stands out as the class of this Starter Optional Claiming field.

win5Knotty and NiceML 4/1

Knotty and Nice owns an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — easily tops in this field — and goes in at 4/1, which represents solid overlay value given that advantage. Trainer Julie Mathes sends Kirk Johnson to the saddle, and Mathes has multiple runners live today, suggesting the barn is rolling. A 14% career win rate and an average speed of 54 are perfectly calibrated for a 7-furlong turf test, and with the pace scenario likely to develop over a longer distance, a stalker's profile could be very dangerous here.

place8Zippy GambleML 9/2

Zippy Gamble at 9/2 is a clear second choice on our model with a 72.9 rating and a 15% career win rate — consistent enough to be trusted in the exacta underneath. Trainer Dale A. Powell has Leo Salles in the irons, and with a 54 average speed, Zippy Gamble should be competitive throughout this seven-furlong trip. A reliable play for bettors building multi-horse tickets.

show9Nice BabyML 6/1

Nice Baby checks in at 6/1 with a 58.71 rating and the second-highest career win rate in the field at 22% — that lifetime win number is hard to ignore in a spot like this. Trainer Anthony Adamo sends out Sofia Vives, and the combination of a competitive rating and strong historical winning tendency makes Nice Baby a smart show selection. At 6/1, she adds some juice to the trifecta without costing you the farm.

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Fort Erie looks like a solid Monday card with a clear headliner in Galvaston on the turf and a lot of value to hunt across the claiming ranks. Our top plays for free-card readers are Galvaston, Bingo's Grind, and Shes Hot to Trot — but the full picture, including Ashcar Nellie and the multi-race sequences, is waiting for subscribers. Head to /pricing to get the complete TrackWiz breakdown before post time.

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