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Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — July 20, 2026

July 20, 20267 racesAll Fort Erie picks

This card ran on July 20, 2026.

Best bets at Fort Erie, July 20, 2026

Race 12PrincessonamissionML 9/24:30 PM EDT

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Fort Erie is open for business on a pleasant Monday, with partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 77°F keeping conditions close to ideal. The turf course should be in good shape, and the dirt looks fast — exactly the kind of afternoon where sharp handicapping can pay off.

We've got a seven-race card to work through, mixing allowance company with a healthy dose of claiming races and a maiden claimer on the grass. Three of those races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, while the back half of the card — where some of the most interesting pace scenarios set up — is available to subscribers.

A few angles jump out early: there's genuine longshot value on the turf in Race 3, and the allowance bookends to the card (Races 1 and 7) each feature a horse our models are bullish on. Let's dig in.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:30 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A wide-open allowance mile with a clear TrackWiz ratings gap at the top — the morning-line favorite isn't the horse our model likes best, setting up a potential overlay situation worth exploiting.

win2PrincessonamissionML 9/2

Princessonamission owns the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 84.9 — a significant edge over the rest of the card — and that kind of separation in an allowance spot is hard to ignore. The morning line of 9/2 is generous given her model score, suggesting the public may be underestimating her. Desean Bynoe gets the call, and if Princessonamission can translate that rating into a clean trip around one mile and 70 yards on the dirt, she should be a factor throughout. The value here is real — at 9/2 against a morning-line favorite we like less, she's our top selection.

place5Sunset SkippyML 2/1

Sunset Skippy comes in at a 68.87 rating and carries a 20% career win percentage — the best strike rate in this field — which tells you this horse knows how to compete and finish. Trainer Tom Steer sends her out as the 2/1 morning-line favorite, meaning the public agrees she belongs near the top, and that kind of mutual confidence is worth respecting. In a race where pace could get honest over the extra distance, Skippy's win record suggests she'll be in the thick of it.

show4Z HubML 4/1

Z Hub is sitting at 67.62 on the TrackWiz scale and goes postward at 4/1 with a 12% career win rate — solid enough to factor in the exotic tickets. Juan Crawford is aboard, and at a price that makes the show position attractive, Z Hub fills out a logical trifecta underneath two horses with meaningfully higher ratings.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

4:58 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Stirling Castle looks like a dominant favorite in this six-and-a-half furlong claiming sprint, but the pace scenario and a couple of live prices underneath make the exotics worth constructing carefully.

win5Stirling CastleML 2/1

Stirling Castle is the class of this field by almost every metric — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating that towers over the next closest at 62.3, and a 33% career win percentage that's simply elite for a claiming runner. Trainer Anthony Adamo sends him out at 2/1, which is actually fair given how much he separates from the field on paper. Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin takes the mount, and with that kind of back-class and a strong win percentage behind him, Stirling Castle should be able to dictate or track the pace over six and a half furlongs.

place2Always a WayML 3/1

Always a Way rates second in this field at 62.3 and goes at 3/1 with Juan Crawford, who has been busy on this card. The 11% career win rate is modest, but in a claiming race where you're looking for horses to hit the board, Always a Way's rating advantage over the middle of the pack gives her a clear path to a place finish if Stirling Castle uses up the speed horses early.

show1Sea to AirML 4/1

Sea to Air is the most interesting piece of the show puzzle here — a 24% career win percentage is eye-catching and suggests a horse that has been live in similar spots before. The 4/1 morning line gives you some value in the exotics, and Ismael Eluid Mosqueira knows the Fort Erie oval. At 46.05 rating she won't beat the top two on pure numbers, but her win history says she competes hard.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

The first three races give us a nice cross-section of what Fort Erie is offering today. Princessonamission opens the card in allowance company going a route of ground — a mile and 70 yards on dirt — and at 9/2 on the morning line she represents real value if she handles the added distance. In Race 2, Stirling Castle is the morning-line chalk at 2/1 in a 6½-furlong dirt claimer, and TrackWiz analysis backs that number with an 88.54 rating, the highest of the free-race group. Don't sleep on Cinnamon Bits in Race 3, though — a 6/1 morning line on the turf is the kind of price that can make your afternoon if the pace sets up right, and our models like her chances more than the oddsmakers do.

The connecting thread across these three free races is pace: all three figure to see honest early fractions, which tends to reward horses that can rate off the speed and finish. Keep that in mind when you're building your tickets.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

5:26 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

Seven furlongs on the turf with a wide-open claiming field — the morning-line chalk here isn't our top-rated horse, and a 6/1 shot leads the TrackWiz standings, making this a race to attack with exotic plays.

win7Cinnamon BitsML 6/1

Cinnamon Bits tops the TrackWiz ratings in this eight-horse turf field at 82.71 — a meaningful gap above the second-best rated horse — and yet the morning line has her at 6/1, which is exactly the kind of overlay we look for. Trainer Joseph Humber and jockey Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin are a pairing that appears multiple times on today's card, and familiarity counts. With an average speed figure of 53 consistent with the rest of the group, the edge here is the rating, and at 6/1 the value makes her our clear top selection on the turf.

place5Coach CaleyML 3/1

Coach Caley rates second in the field at 66.93 and is the 3/1 morning-line second choice, so the public is somewhat aligned here. Chad Lee rides for trainer Julie Mathes, and while the average speed figure of 51 is a tick below the cluster of 53s in this field, the overall rating score suggests Coach Caley compensates elsewhere in the profile. An 11% career win rate is respectable in a claiming turf spot, and at 3/1 she's a natural place horse to pair with our top pick.

show3Gambler's PoseML 7/2

Gambler's Pose at 7/2 brings a 64.79 rating — third-best in the field — and trainer Ken Albu is sending out a horse whose overall score separates her from the bottom half of this field. The 10% career win rate isn't flashy, but in a turf claiming sprint with pace questions, Gambler's Pose's rating makes her a logical show play and trifecta anchor.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

5:54 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong dirt claimer is a TrackWiz subscriber exclusive, and the top two rated horses are going at prices that offer real value — the morning-line favorite isn't the horse our model trusts most.

win4Paperback HeroML 5/1

Paperback Hero leads all horses in Race 4 with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and backs it up with a 19% career win percentage and an average speed figure of 55 — tied for best in the field. Trainer Roy George Agostino sends him out at 5/1 with Leo Salles up, and that price relative to his rating is exactly the kind of value angle that makes this a strong win play. In a six-furlong dirt sprint where speed figures matter, Paperback Hero's combination of top-end rating and winning pedigree gives him the clearest path to the winner's circle.

place3A La CarteML 7/2

A La Carte rates third in the field at 74.82 — a solid number — and goes at 7/2 with Kirk Johnson aboard for trainer Nick Guy Mileni Jr. The 11% career win rate and average speed figure of 54 put her right in the mix with the top contenders, and at a price that's accessible, she's a logical exacta and place play underneath Paperback Hero.

show7Where Is EssaML 6/1

Where Is Essa brings some intrigue at 6/1 — a 66.55 rating combined with a 15% career win percentage and an average speed of 55 that matches the best in the field. Juan Crawford is a busy rider on today's card, and trainer Sharon Ceccato knows how to spot a horse in the right spot. At 6/1 and with legitimate speed figures, Where Is Essa is worth including in trifecta plays.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

6:22 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Strike a Note dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this six-furlong dirt claimer, but a 4/1 second choice with a sharp profile gives the exotics real teeth — don't single blindly.

win5Strike a NoteML 5/2

Strike a Note comes in with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in this field by a wide margin — and while the 12% career win rate isn't gaudy, the rating separation is the story here. Trainer Joseph Humber fields multiple horses today and clearly has the barn in good form, and Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin has been one of the more active riders on this card. At 5/2 on the morning line, the public is already on to this one, but the model strongly supports the favoritism.

place6JagannaML 4/1

Jaganna is the most intriguing piece of this race at 4/1 — a 72.39 TrackWiz rating is comfortably second in the field, and a 20% career win percentage is among the better strike rates in today's full card. Helen Marie Vanek gets the mount for trainer Nick Guy Mileni Jr., who also has A La Carte in Race 4, suggesting the barn is active. Jaganna's numbers make her a natural exacta partner with Strike a Note and a horse to trust for the place.

show1Her ObsessionML 6/1

Her Obsession at 6/1 fills out the show spot with a 55.8 rating and an interesting angle — a 5% career win rate is low, but Desean Bynoe is one of the more experienced riders on this card and trainer Joan M. Mitchell places horses thoughtfully. In a field where the top two are well above the rest on ratings, Her Obsession's price makes her worth including in trifecta tickets as the third wheel.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

6:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden claiming turf route where all seven horses are winless — form is murky, but TrackWiz ratings still find a clear separation at the top that shapes the ticket.

win1Ur HeartML 9/5

Ur Heart tops this maiden turf field with an 81.63 TrackWiz rating — a significant margin over the second-best horse — and goes as the 9/5 morning-line favorite, which is fair given how much the model separates her. Romero Ramsay Maragh takes the mount for trainer Sarah Ritchie, and in a field where nobody has broken their maiden, speed figure and rating edge matter more than win history. The 9/5 price isn't value exactly, but the model confidence is high enough to make her a strong win selection.

place7La RondeML 4/1

La Ronde is the standout place play here at 4/1 with a 77.53 rating — second-best in the field and a legitimate threat to challenge Ur Heart if things go sideways in the race. Trainer Claudia S. Rabstein and jockey Pierre Mailhot team up, and in a maiden race on the turf, a horse with this kind of rating backing at a reasonable price is exactly the kind of place play you want in your tickets. Don't skip her in the exacta.

show6It's Pay DayML 2/1

It's Pay Day is the 2/1 morning-line second choice, but our model has her third in the field at 58.33 — meaning the public may be slightly overrating her relative to La Ronde. That said, trainer Daniel Wills and jockey Brian A. Cheyne are a solid pairing, and the average speed figure of 52 ties with Ur Heart for best in the race. She's worth the show spot in your trifecta for the speed figure alone.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

7:18 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Mo Argento stands out as a ratings powerhouse in this allowance sprint, but a 10/1 overlay with a legitimate profile lurking in the one-hole makes this a race worth attacking with exotics.

win7Mo ArgentoML 7/2

Mo Argento leads this eight-horse allowance field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — the strongest number on the board — and pairs it with a 22% career win percentage and a 55 average speed figure that's tied for best in the race. Trainer Nick Guy Mileni Jr. has been active across this card, and Helen Marie Vanek gets the call at a 7/2 morning line that genuinely underprices this horse relative to the competition. Six and a half furlongs on the dirt is a comfortable distance for a closer or a stalker with late pace, and Mo Argento's profile fits the bill.

place1BrengungirlML 10/1

Brengungirl at 10/1 is the value angle of this race — a 71.16 rating is third in the field and a 18% career win percentage says she knows how to compete. Trainer Joseph Humber is sending out multiple runners today in strong form, and Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin gets the call. The morning-line price of 10/1 is significantly generous for a horse with these numbers, making Brengungirl a must-use in exactas and a genuine win contender if Mo Argento hits traffic.

show6Reach for the TopML 5/2

Reach for the Top goes at 5/2 as one of the shorter prices in the field, and a 68.53 rating with a 20% career win percentage justifies the public attention. Trainer Patrick Dixon teams with jockey Jalon L. Samuel, and the 55 average speed figure — tied for best — suggests this horse can handle the pace in an allowance sprint. She's a logical show play and trifecta piece underneath our top two selections.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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Bottom line for today at Fort Erie: Stirling Castle is the most straightforward best bet on the card, Cinnamon Bits is the value play to watch on the turf, and Princessonamission sets the tone in the opener. For the full-card breakdown — including pace scenarios, exotic tickets, and our take on Mo Argento and the premium sprint races — that's all available to TrackWiz subscribers. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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