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Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — July 21, 2026

July 21, 20267 racesAll Fort Erie picks

This card ran on July 21, 2026.

Best bets at Fort Erie, July 21, 2026

Race 15Silent PassionML 3/14:30 PM EDT

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Rain is falling at Fort Erie today, and that changes everything. With temps sitting at a mild 75°F and wet weather in the mix, the dirt strip is going to be a factor in every dirt race on the card — and there are plenty of them. Seven races are on the board, and our TrackWiz models have been crunching pace scenarios and surface preferences all morning.

The card runs the gamut from claiming sprints to allowance routes, with a pair of turf tests thrown in that'll be worth monitoring closely as post time approaches. Wet turf can play very differently than firm going — tighter turns, less kick for closers — so keep an eye on the official surface report before you finalize any tickets.

Bottom line: today is a day where knowing your horses' wet-track records isn't optional, it's essential. We've got three free previews to get you started and four premium races behind the paywall for the full-card bettors.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A tight five-horse claiming sprint where the TrackWiz ratings tell a clear story — Silent Passion sits well clear of the field, but the morning line makes the favorite Legs Like Flatter the one to beat on paper.

win5Silent PassionML 3/1

Silent Passion is the standout on TrackWiz ratings with an 87.08 — the highest mark in the field by a comfortable margin — and trainer Nick Guy Mileni Jr. saddles her with Helen Marie Vanek in the irons. At 3/1 on the morning line, she's not overpriced given that rating edge, and an 18% career win rate gives her a legitimate base of form to lean on. In a 5.5-furlong dirt sprint where early position matters, she looks like the horse to catch.

place1RiflingML 5/2

Rifling opens at 5/2 and checks in second on our ratings at 68.99, giving trainer Julie Mathes a pair of runners in this spot. Chad Lee gets the call, and while the 13% career win rate is modest, the speed figures are consistent with the rest of the field — this one has the profile of a horse that competes without necessarily dominating.

show4Legs Like FlatterML 2/1

Legs Like Flatter is the public's choice at 2/1 with a 26% career win rate — the best strike rate in the field. Juan Crawford is a solid booking in the irons, and that win percentage demands respect in a short field. The 59.91 rating trails our top two picks, but at short odds, she's plenty capable of filling out an exacta or trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

4:58 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Last Glimmer is a class standout on the ratings in this six-furlong dirt claimer, but the public seems to favor My Cash Factor at near-even odds — setting up a potential overlay situation if our top pick fires.

win3Last GlimmerML 3/1

Last Glimmer tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 — matching the highest score we've seen on today's card — and goes postward at a fair 3/1 on the morning line under Ismael Eluid Mosqueira for trainer Steven Cathcart. The 12% career win rate is workmanlike, and the average speed figure is in line with this group. When a horse carries the field's top rating at a reasonable price, that's the angle TrackWiz analysis consistently targets.

place5Souper CopML 5/2

Souper Cop holds a 16% career win rate and a solid 61.56 TrackWiz rating, making her a credible threat to hit the board at 5/2. Juan Crawford is an experienced hand around Fort Erie, and Erin H. Rickman's barn shows a respectable win rate to back up the morning line price. She profiles as a closer type who could benefit if the speed horses burn each other up early.

show6My Cash FactorML 9/5

My Cash Factor opens as the public's choice at 9/5, which immediately flags a value question — our ratings put her third in the field at 59.25, behind both Last Glimmer and Souper Cop. That said, an 18% career win rate is the second-best in this field, and Prayven Badrie is a live booking. Include her in exotics, but respect the fact that the odds may not reflect the form accurately.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

The first three races on the card are open to all TrackWiz readers, and they give us a solid early read on how the track is playing. Silent Passion kicks things off in Race 1 — a 5½-furlong dirt claiming sprint where pace figures to be honest and a wet-footed runner could steal the show at morning-line odds of 3/1. Race 2 follows a similar script at 6 furlongs on dirt, where Last Glimmer carries matching 3/1 odds and an 87-point TrackWiz rating that puts her right in the thick of it.

The pivot comes in Race 3, where we shift to turf for 5 furlongs and Lumberyard takes the top spot with the highest TrackWiz rating of the free trio at 88.54 — and a morning line of 2/1 that suggests the market already respects him. If the turf course is sealed or downgraded due to rain, watch for late scratches and field reshuffling before you lock anything in.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

5:26 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A five-furlong turf sprint with genuine pace and rating intrigue — Lumberyard leads on our numbers, but the morning line favorite Four Beach Friends and the well-priced Doadster make this a race worth playing vertically.

win5LumberyardML 2/1

Lumberyard posts the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54 and is trained by Nick Guy Mileni Jr., who also has Let's Go Liam in the race — dual entries can sometimes signal a barn that's live. Helen Marie Vanek rides, and while the 5% career win rate is low, it's important to remember that Lumberyard's rating edge over this field is what drives the selection. At 2/1, the price is fair for a horse that clearly grades out above the competition on our model.

place7Four Beach FriendsML 8/5

Four Beach Friends is the morning line choice at 8/5 with a 73.19 TrackWiz rating — second in the field — and a steady 8% career win rate. Trainer Anthony Adamo sends out Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin, and the 55 average speed figure is among the best on the turf today. If Lumberyard gets beat, this one looks most likely to be standing on the podium.

show2DoadsterML 7/2

Doadster is an interesting piece at 7/2 with a 70.42 TrackWiz rating — third in the field and within striking distance of Four Beach Friends. Trainer Jeff Voyce puts Ismael Eluid Mosqueira up, and a 55 average speed figure matches the top closers here. The 4% career win rate is a concern, but in turf sprints at this level, pace and surface form can override raw numbers — Doadster has enough rating to find the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

5:54 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Maiden claiming dirt sprint with a wide-open look on paper — Hard Performer and Silent Mort lead the way on ratings, while Rapporteur is a sneaky show play at a big number.

win4Hard PerformerML 5/2

Hard Performer posts the race's top TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and goes as a 5/2 morning line choice under Jalon L. Samuel for trainer Marvin Richards. The 52 average speed figure in a maiden claiming field is workable, and the rating gap over the rest of this group is meaningful. In a race where everyone is still looking for that first win, having the model's top-ranked horse at a reasonable price is exactly where you want to be.

place5Silent MortML 7/2

Silent Mort rates second in the field at 77.47 and carries a 54 average speed figure — one of the best in the race. Helen Marie Vanek gets the call for trainer Nick Guy Mileni Jr., who has multiple runners firing at Fort Erie tonight. The 7/2 morning line is a fair reflection of the form, and in a maiden field, being second-best on our numbers usually translates to at least a board finish.

show2RapporteurML 12/1

Rapporteur is the live longshot angle here at 12/1 morning line — the rating of 61.74 is actually third in this field, which makes the price look generous. Trainer Philip Hall sends out Prayven Badrie, and the 53 average speed figure is solid context for a maiden claimer. At double-digit odds with a legitimate rating, this is exactly the type of show play that rewards TrackWiz subscribers who look beyond the chalk.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

6:22 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

An allowance stretch-out to 6.5 furlongs on dirt where Takemybourbonneat and Momaxie look like the class of the field — but at likely short prices, the value question is real.

win2TakemybourbonneatML 2/1

Takemybourbonneat leads all TrackWiz ratings in this allowance at 88.54 and brings the second-best career win rate in the field at a remarkable 27%. Trainer Anthony Adamo puts Sofia Vives in the irons, and the 55 average speed figure is tied for best in today's race. At 2/1 on the morning line, this is a horse you can make a case to back without apology — the numbers just line up.

place5MomaxieML 9/5

Momaxie is genuinely fascinating here — a 50% career win rate is one of the most eye-catching stats on today's full card, and the 82.12 TrackWiz rating keeps her firmly in the conversation. Juan Crawford rides for Steven Cathcart, who saddles two in this spot. The 9/5 morning line makes her a likely co-chalk with our win pick, so the value is a bit squeezed — but in exotics, you can't leave a horse with half her starts in the winner's circle off your tickets.

show3Get Out the VoteML 5/1

Get Out the Vote rates third in this allowance field at 72.08 with a 13% career win rate and a 55 average speed figure. Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin rides for John Simms, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's real value here relative to the top two. If the pace scenario tightens up between the two favorites, Get Out the Vote has the profile to be sitting quietly and swoop late for a piece of the purse.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 6

6:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 7 fur · Turf

Seven furlongs on Fort Erie's turf with an interesting odds inversion — the morning line favorite Mad Dog N Joe at 7/5 actually trails two horses on our ratings, headlined by Pat's Gamble at 5/1.

win4Pat's GambleML 5/1

Pat's Gamble is the TrackWiz value play in this allowance turf route, posting an 84.17 rating — second-best in the field — while sitting at a generous 5/1 on the morning line. Edgar Zenteno rides for John Simms, and a 55 average speed figure is tied for best in the race. The 11% career win rate is understated for a horse with this kind of raw rating, and when the model says a horse outgrades a shorter-priced rival, that's the overlay we're looking for on a seven-furlong turf route.

place3Lasting SilenceML 5/2

Lasting Silence grades out third on the TrackWiz model at 70.00 and boasts a 30% career win rate — one of the most impressive percentages on today's card. Juan Crawford takes the mount for Sharon Ceccato, and the 5/2 morning line reflects solid public support. In a turf route where pace control often means everything, a horse with this kind of strike rate and an experienced jockey is a safe place to anchor your exacta.

show6Mad Dog N JoeML 7/5

Mad Dog N Joe opens as the morning line favorite at 7/5, but our ratings peg this one fourth in the field at 61.29 — below both Pat's Gamble and Lasting Silence. The 14% career win rate is unremarkable for a horse at this price. Xarel Forde rides for Anthony Adamo, and we respect the trainer angle, but at likely sub-even money, the risk-reward calculus here is upside down. Including in show exotics makes sense; betting to win against better-rated rivals does not.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

7:18 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Wide-open maiden special weight on six furlongs of Fort Erie dirt — Fredericka's Rose leads on ratings, but with every horse in the field still looking for Win No. 1, anything can happen.

win1Fredericka's RoseML 7/2

Fredericka's Rose tops the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden special weight at 86.35 and draws the rail under Ismael Eluid Mosqueira for trainer Steven Cathcart, who has had a strong presence on tonight's card. The 53 average speed figure is consistent with the front runners in this group, and while the 7/2 morning line puts her off the chalk, our model says she deserves to be the favorite. In maiden races, identifying the horse with the clearest rating edge is the single most reliable handicapping angle.

place7Blue's MommyML 5/1

Blue's Mommy rates second in this field at 77.96 and opens at 5/1, which represents genuine overlay value relative to her TrackWiz number. Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin rides for John Simms, a trainer who has placed horses consistently on this card. The 53 average speed figure matches Fredericka's Rose exactly, and in a maiden race where pace can get messy, Blue's Mommy looks like an ideal each-way target.

show4Dancin Mary MarieML 4/1

Dancin Mary Marie rates third in the field at 65.09 with a 53 average speed figure and breaks from post four under Desean Bynoe for trainer Desmond Maynard. The 4/1 morning line is fair but not exciting — however, in an eight-horse maiden field, having the third-rated horse with a clean post and a capable jockey is a meaningful edge for show and trifecta purposes. She fills out the superfecta naturally.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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A wet Fort Erie card demands sharp thinking and flexible tickets. Our top free plays — Silent Passion, Last Glimmer, and Lumberyard — give every reader a strong foundation, but the full-card edge lives in the premium analysis. Unlock all seven races, including our exotic strategies and pace projections, with a TrackWiz subscription at /pricing. Good luck out there — and watch that track condition board.

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