Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — July 12, 2026

Ilikeitwhenitsnows opens at 9/2 and checks in with a solid 84.31 TrackWiz rating — the second-best mark in the race by a comfortable margin. Trainer Doug Carter and jockey Steve Jadoo give this horse a capable foundation, and the price represents real value relative to the form. If Speedy Connection falters or gets bumped out of a clean trip, Ilikeitwhenitsnows looks like the most likely beneficiary.

Woodglen Court is the public's second choice at 2/1 — surprisingly short given a 78.02 rating that trails both top picks. What makes this horse interesting for show tickets is the morning-line positioning; 2/1 in a maiden race tells you trainer William G. McMahon has this horse fit and jockey Edgar Zenteno is a reliable pilot. Worth including in underneath slots of trifectas, particularly if the pace scenario plays to closers.

Forest Flash at 7/2 is the speed threat in this race — an avg speed figure of 56 leads the entire field, and trainer Jeff Voyce sends this horse out with Ismael Eluid Mosqueira, who knows how to take advantage of early fractions. A 13% career win rate won't set the world on fire, but Forest Flash's raw pace profile could keep this horse honest for two spots. A pace duel scenario could see this one wire to wire or just miss.

Attestation is the morning-line favorite at 2/1, which tells you the public sees a strong contender — and a 25% career win rate backs that up. Our ratings have this horse third in the field at 69.45, suggesting mild overlay risk at the short price. For show purposes in the trifecta, Attestation with Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin is a solid underneath inclusion, particularly given trainer Joseph Humber's ability to condition horses for short sprints.

Golden Test at 5/2 checks in with our second-highest rating in the race at 82.73, and this is the horse that makes structuring the trifecta interesting. Trainer Anthony Adamo pairs with jockey Xarel Forde — the same combination that's working well today — and a career win rate of 11% at allowance level is respectable. An avg speed of 54 matches the field, and at 6½ furlongs, pace efficiency is everything.

Mymathes Correct draws the 4/1 morning line with a 71.83 rating and a very strong 20% career win rate that demands respect. Trainer Julie Mathes — yes, the trainer shares the name in this horse — and jockey Kirk Johnson give this runner a capable team for the distance. The avg speed of 52 is the lowest among our top three picks, so this horse may need a contested pace up front to close into, making show the right spot.

Nice Baby at 5/2 posts a 71.53 rating and the best career win rate of the non-Ashcar Nellie contenders at 25% — a number that says this horse finishes first nearly once every four starts. Trainer Anthony Adamo pairs with Xarel Forde for another entry from a barn that's been active and placed well today. In a short sprint, the 5/2 price for a horse with a 25% win rate is a viable exacta wheel on top of our win pick.

Vandoo at 4/1 earns third in our ratings at 50.91 and brings the field's top avg speed at 55 — tied with several others but notable given the price. Trainer Joseph Humber and jockey Edgar Zenteno make for a workmanlike combo, and a 13% career win rate is serviceable in starter optional claiming. If the pace gets hot early with Ashcar Nellie and Nice Baby battling, Vandoo could be the one left for thirds.

Half to Reload is the hidden gem in this race — an avg speed figure of 56 leads the entire field and trainer Michael J. Blake has this horse ready at 5/1. Jockey Helen Marie Vanek gets the mount, and an 18% career win rate tells you this is a horse that hits the board more often than the morning line implies. The place angle here offers real value given the speed advantage in the figures.

Rye's My Guy is the morning-line choice at 2/1 and carries a respectable 73.54 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — along with an 11% career win rate. Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin rides for trainer Sharon Ceccato, and while the rating gap behind Bingo's Grind is real, Rye's My Guy's position at the top of the public's card means it'll get a clean trip in a manageable six-horse field. Worth including in trifecta constructions underneath.

Hot Omelet opens as the morning-line second choice at 2/1 and carries a 25% career win rate — the best in this race by a wide margin. Trainer Joshua Robillard sends the horse out with Michael David, and while the 72.12 rating is well behind Really Thirsty, the win conversion rate on turf at this level is hard to dismiss. At seven furlongs, experienced horses with high win rates tend to find a way to the board.

Sparkling Silver at 7/2 brings a 48.91 rating and an 11% career win rate to a turf race where several horses look exposed. Trainer Steven Cathcart and jockey Alexis Sanchez make a capable pairing, and the seven-furlong distance is longer than most of today's card — which can open up opportunities for horses that run late. In an otherwise top-heavy field, Sparkling Silver is a serviceable show inclusion to round out the trifecta.