Daily Picks

Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — July 12, 2026

Sunday, July 12, 20268 racesFort Erie

Fort Erie is open for business on Sunday, July 12, with a crisp 8-race card posted under clear skies and a comfortable 79°F. The dirt strip figures to be fast and fair all afternoon — ideal conditions for speed horses to dictate terms and hold on late.

All eight races are contested at sprint distances, topping out at 7 furlongs, which tells you right away that pace is going to be the story today. Whether a horse can clear out early or whether the field bunches up and sets things up for a closer — that's the question we're answering race by race. Three of today's full analyses are on us, with the remaining five available to TrackWiz subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short field of five in this 6½-furlong dirt claimer, but the top two in our ratings are separated from the pack — expect Brazilian Legacy and Shes Hot to Trot to dominate the exotics.

win4Brazilian LegacyML 9/5

Brazilian Legacy earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 88.83 — the widest margin over any rival in today's opener. With an 18% career win rate, this horse converts at a level that outpaces every other entrant, and an average speed figure of 54 gives the edge on the board. At 9/5 on the morning line, the market agrees this is the one to beat, and trainer Anthony Adamo sends the horse out with Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin — a pairing worth noting at this level.

place5Shes Hot to TrotML 2/1

Shes Hot to Trot carries a TrackWiz rating of 86.40, just a hair behind the top pick, and has the tactical speed (avg 52) to stay in the mix around two turns of this short sprint. The 2/1 morning line reflects public respect, but the place spot looks like the safer play given a modest 5% career win rate — this is a horse that fires competitive efforts without always finishing first. Trainer Julie Mathes keeps the horse competitive, and the place return here should be solid.

show3Easter Sunday GirlML 7/2

Easter Sunday Girl at 7/2 represents the third-best rating in the race at 59.78 — a step below the top two but well clear of the bottom of the field. A 10% career win rate and consistent avg speed of 52 suggest she'll be running late in this sprint, which makes her a logical show inclusion in exacta and trifecta tickets. Jockey Edgar Zenteno gives her an experienced pilot to navigate the short field.

Race 2

4:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Chrome's Big Break comes in as the morning-line favorite but faces a serious TrackWiz ratings challenge from Rifling — this one sets up as a two-horse battle with legitimate upset potential from Frac Amour at 3/1.

win4RiflingML 5/2

Rifling tops our ratings at 87.81 despite going off at 5/2 — meaning the public is underrating this horse relative to what our model sees. A 10% career win rate is modest, but the avg speed figure of 54 matches the morning-line favorite Chrome's Big Break, and our composite rating gives Rifling the edge. Trainer Michael J. Blake and jockey Chad Lee combine here for what we think is the best price on the board in Race 2.

place5Chrome's Big BreakML 8/5

Chrome's Big Break is the public's choice at 8/5 for good reason — a 35% career win rate is exceptional at this level, and an avg speed of 55 leads the field. The concern is the morning-line price; at nearly even money, the place return won't be exciting. Still, that win percentage demands respect, and trainer Steven Cathcart clearly has this horse ready to fire. Place it is if the win price gets squeezed further.

show3Frac AmourML 3/1

Frac Amour sits third in our ratings at 52.73 but opens at a juicy 3/1, which makes this horse interesting for multi-race exotics. Trainer Julie Mathes has a knack for placing horses competitively, and an 11% career win rate at this distance and surface is workmanlike. If the pace between Rifling and Chrome's Big Break gets contentious early, Frac Amour and Kirk Johnson could be the beneficiary coming home.

Race 3

5:11 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight sprints can be tricky to read, but Speedy Connection is the clear standout on paper — the question is whether Ilikeitwhenitsnows can keep things honest and offer value underneath.

win4Speedy ConnectionML EVN

Speedy Connection earns the highest TrackWiz rating of any horse on today's entire card at 90.00, which is a significant statement in a Maiden Special Weight field. Going off at even money, trainer Anthony Adamo again saddles a standout, and jockey Xarel Forde gets the call — this barn clearly fires horses ready to win. The avg speed of 54 leads this field, and in maiden sprints, raw ability tends to win out when it's this dominant.

place5IlikeitwhenitsnowsML 9/2

Ilikeitwhenitsnows opens at 9/2 and checks in with a solid 84.31 TrackWiz rating — the second-best mark in the race by a comfortable margin. Trainer Doug Carter and jockey Steve Jadoo give this horse a capable foundation, and the price represents real value relative to the form. If Speedy Connection falters or gets bumped out of a clean trip, Ilikeitwhenitsnows looks like the most likely beneficiary.

show1Woodglen CourtML 2/1

Woodglen Court is the public's second choice at 2/1 — surprisingly short given a 78.02 rating that trails both top picks. What makes this horse interesting for show tickets is the morning-line positioning; 2/1 in a maiden race tells you trainer William G. McMahon has this horse fit and jockey Edgar Zenteno is a reliable pilot. Worth including in underneath slots of trifectas, particularly if the pace scenario plays to closers.

The first three races give us plenty to work with. Brazilian Legacy opens the card in a 6½-furlong dirt claimer at a 9/5 morning line that looks fair given an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — one of the stronger figures posted in a claimer today. In Race 2, Rifling draws our eye in a 6-furlong dirt claimer, rated 87.81 and sitting at 5/2 on the line. Then the Maiden Special Weight in Race 3 is arguably the most intriguing of the trio: Speedy Connection carries an even-money morning line and a clean 90.00 TrackWiz rating, the top mark on the entire card. On a fast-playing dirt oval where early speed tends to be rewarded, that number commands respect.

The connecting thread across all three free picks? Each horse profiles as a front-runner or stalker in a pace scenario that looks manageable. On a track playing this quick, horses that can save ground and apply pressure at the right moment have a clear edge. These three plays give you a strong starting point for the afternoon.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:39 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-horse claiming field where the morning-line favorite isn't our top-rated horse — Paperback Hero at 3/1 stands out on ratings while Attestation at 2/1 could be an overbet public choice.

win5Paperback HeroML 3/1

Paperback Hero leads our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 — well clear of the rest of this claiming field — and the 3/1 morning line makes this a genuine value play relative to the model. A 19% career win rate is strong for this company, and trainer Roy George Agostino places this horse for jockey Helen Marie Vanek to handle. The avg speed of 55 ties for the field lead, and at six furlongs on the dirt, pace capacity matters — this horse has it.

place2Forest FlashML 7/2

Forest Flash at 7/2 is the speed threat in this race — an avg speed figure of 56 leads the entire field, and trainer Jeff Voyce sends this horse out with Ismael Eluid Mosqueira, who knows how to take advantage of early fractions. A 13% career win rate won't set the world on fire, but Forest Flash's raw pace profile could keep this horse honest for two spots. A pace duel scenario could see this one wire to wire or just miss.

show3AttestationML 2/1

Attestation is the morning-line favorite at 2/1, which tells you the public sees a strong contender — and a 25% career win rate backs that up. Our ratings have this horse third in the field at 69.45, suggesting mild overlay risk at the short price. For show purposes in the trifecta, Attestation with Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin is a solid underneath inclusion, particularly given trainer Joseph Humber's ability to condition horses for short sprints.

Race 5

6:07 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

This allowance sprint at 6½ furlongs features two Roy George Agostino trainees splitting duties, with Cooler Man standing out on ratings while the 5/2 Golden Test gives handicappers a legitimate second option.

win5Cooler ManML 3/1

Cooler Man posts an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the top mark in the field — and opens at 3/1, which is a price we'll happily take given the form. An avg speed figure of 55 leads the field at this distance, and trainer Roy George Agostino has form with this horse, sending it out with jockey Michael David. A 9% career win rate looks modest, but in allowance company this competitive, consistent form matters more than raw win percentage.

place3Golden TestML 5/2

Golden Test at 5/2 checks in with our second-highest rating in the race at 82.73, and this is the horse that makes structuring the trifecta interesting. Trainer Anthony Adamo pairs with jockey Xarel Forde — the same combination that's working well today — and a career win rate of 11% at allowance level is respectable. An avg speed of 54 matches the field, and at 6½ furlongs, pace efficiency is everything.

show2Mymathes CorrectML 4/1

Mymathes Correct draws the 4/1 morning line with a 71.83 rating and a very strong 20% career win rate that demands respect. Trainer Julie Mathes — yes, the trainer shares the name in this horse — and jockey Kirk Johnson give this runner a capable team for the distance. The avg speed of 52 is the lowest among our top three picks, so this horse may need a contested pace up front to close into, making show the right spot.

Race 6

6:35 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A seven-horse Starter Optional Claiming sprint at 5½ furlongs — short and sharp, where Ashcar Nellie's elite ratings and 35% win rate make this horse a clear standout, but Nice Baby and Vandoo offer competitive underneath prices.

win7Ashcar NellieML 3/1

Ashcar Nellie is simply the class of this field — an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a 35% career win rate are both the best numbers in today's Race 6 by a significant margin. Trainer Kevin Buttigieg sends out Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin, one of the more active jockeys on the card today, and the 3/1 morning line offers fair value on a horse that converts at elite levels. At 5½ furlongs, early position matters, and an avg speed of 55 suggests this horse won't be shuffled back.

place4Nice BabyML 5/2

Nice Baby at 5/2 posts a 71.53 rating and the best career win rate of the non-Ashcar Nellie contenders at 25% — a number that says this horse finishes first nearly once every four starts. Trainer Anthony Adamo pairs with Xarel Forde for another entry from a barn that's been active and placed well today. In a short sprint, the 5/2 price for a horse with a 25% win rate is a viable exacta wheel on top of our win pick.

show3VandooML 4/1

Vandoo at 4/1 earns third in our ratings at 50.91 and brings the field's top avg speed at 55 — tied with several others but notable given the price. Trainer Joseph Humber and jockey Edgar Zenteno make for a workmanlike combo, and a 13% career win rate is serviceable in starter optional claiming. If the pace gets hot early with Ashcar Nellie and Nice Baby battling, Vandoo could be the one left for thirds.

Race 7

7:03 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Bingo's Grind opens as a prime-priced overlay in this Starter Optional Claiming sprint — the ratings strongly favor the #2, but Half to Reload's pace profile and speed figures make the exacta structure compelling.

win2Bingo's GrindML 3/1

Bingo's Grind carries an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the top score in the field — and yet goes off at 3/1 while the public has Rye's My Guy at 2/1 as the morning-line favorite. That's the kind of discrepancy our model loves. Trainer Michael V. Cohen sends this horse out with Kirk Johnson, and a 16% career win rate in starter optional claiming is competitive. At six furlongs, the avg speed of 55 keeps Bingo's Grind in contention throughout.

place6Half to ReloadML 5/1

Half to Reload is the hidden gem in this race — an avg speed figure of 56 leads the entire field and trainer Michael J. Blake has this horse ready at 5/1. Jockey Helen Marie Vanek gets the mount, and an 18% career win rate tells you this is a horse that hits the board more often than the morning line implies. The place angle here offers real value given the speed advantage in the figures.

show3Rye's My GuyML 2/1

Rye's My Guy is the morning-line choice at 2/1 and carries a respectable 73.54 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — along with an 11% career win rate. Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin rides for trainer Sharon Ceccato, and while the rating gap behind Bingo's Grind is real, Rye's My Guy's position at the top of the public's card means it'll get a clean trip in a manageable six-horse field. Worth including in trifecta constructions underneath.

Race 8

7:31 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

The card closes on the turf at seven furlongs — a surface switch that reshuffles the deck, and Really Thirsty's dominant rating and speed figures make this horse the clear TrackWiz selection in the finale.

win5Really ThirstyML 3/1

Really Thirsty earns an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and leads the field with an avg speed figure of 56 — meaningful at the longer seven-furlong turf distance where late pace capacity comes into play. A 21% career win rate is the second-best in the field and legitimizes the consistent form this horse has shown. Trainer Julie Mathes and jockey Brian A. Cheyne combine for a turf entry that looks well-placed at 3/1 on the morning line.

place6Hot OmeletML 2/1

Hot Omelet opens as the morning-line second choice at 2/1 and carries a 25% career win rate — the best in this race by a wide margin. Trainer Joshua Robillard sends the horse out with Michael David, and while the 72.12 rating is well behind Really Thirsty, the win conversion rate on turf at this level is hard to dismiss. At seven furlongs, experienced horses with high win rates tend to find a way to the board.

show7Sparkling SilverML 7/2

Sparkling Silver at 7/2 brings a 48.91 rating and an 11% career win rate to a turf race where several horses look exposed. Trainer Steven Cathcart and jockey Alexis Sanchez make a capable pairing, and the seven-furlong distance is longer than most of today's card — which can open up opportunities for horses that run late. In an otherwise top-heavy field, Sparkling Silver is a serviceable show inclusion to round out the trifecta.

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Today's card at Fort Erie is compact and beatable — eight sprint races on a fast dirt track, topped by Speedy Connection's card-best 90.00 rating in the Race 3 maiden. Brazilian Legacy and Rifling round out a solid free-play trifecta to get your afternoon started. For the full picture — pace analysis, exotic angles, and our takes on Races 4 through 8 — it's all waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there.

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