Daily Picks

Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 11, 2026

Saturday, July 11, 20269 racesEllis Park

Ellis Park rolls out a nine-race Saturday card under cloudy skies and a comfortable 81°F — conditions that should keep the dirt playing fair and give the turf courses every chance to hold up nicely through the afternoon. No scorching sun baking the lanes, no rain softening the ground. Clean, honest footing all the way around.

The card is a solid mix of conditions: a pair of Starter Allowances, Claiming contests, Maiden Special Weights on both surfaces, and a turf Allowance to anchor the back half of the card. There's something here for every kind of bettor, whether you like grinding the claimers or hunting value in the maiden ranks.

Three races are unlocked for all TrackWiz readers today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — giving you a free look at our top picks in both Starter Allowances and the opening Claiming mile. The remaining six races are available to subscribers, and trust us, the back half of this card is where the real opportunity lives.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The top of the TrackWiz ratings is tightly bunched in this 6-furlong starter allowance, with four horses rated between 75 and 85 — so the favorite's 6/5 morning line may already be vulnerable.

win4HesperML 5/1

Hesper tops our ratings at 84.17 and draws the attention of veteran rider Ben Curtis, a pairing that commands respect in a race where the public will be staring at a much shorter-priced rival. The 5/1 morning line makes this feel like a legitimate overlay. With a 12% career win rate, Hesper isn't a frequent winner, but in a field where speed figures are essentially even across the board, that top rating edge could be the difference. Trainer Gregory D. Foley keeps horses sharp, and at this sprint distance on dirt, Hesper's profile fits.

place3Trouble AheadML 6/1

Trouble Ahead is our place pick at 6/1 and carries a 79.17 rating alongside the best career win percentage among the top contenders at 20%. Francisco Arrieta gets the call and has been riding with confidence. This horse looks like the type that can creep into a photo finish if the pace sets up right.

show2Bob's CarrotML 6/5

Bob's Carrot is the morning-line favorite at 6/5 and carries a 78.72 TrackWiz rating, which actually puts her third in the ratings — a subtle but meaningful gap behind Hesper and Trouble Ahead. Jaime A. Torres aboard gives the connections a strong pilot, and the Carlos Santamaria barn also has Capital Connection in the race, which could mean this team is splitting attention. Bob's Carrot looks like a solid show hedge given the volume of support she'll likely attract.

Race 2

5:19 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A two-horse battle at the top of the ratings sets the stage in this one-mile dirt claimer, but Admiral Hall's 20% career win rate from the outside post adds a third dimension worth watching.

win1Nash PotatoesML 5/2

Nash Potatoes leads all comers with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and Ben Curtis in the irons — the same rider who showed well on Hesper in Race 1. The 5/2 morning line is reasonable value given that rating edge, though the 6% career win rate is a flag worth noting. In a one-mile claimer, pace will matter, and Nash Potatoes will need to translate that rating into a ground-saving trip around two turns to get the job done.

place4AlstonML 9/5

Alston is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 and posts an 84.50 rating — the second-best figure in the field — but what really stands out is a 33% career win rate that dwarfs everyone else in this field. Trainer Peter Eurton ships in with a horse that clearly knows how to finish the job. If Alston fires her best, she's beating Nash Potatoes outright, which makes her an ideal place anchor.

show6Admiral HallML 7/2

Admiral Hall at 7/2 rounds out our TrackWiz selections with a 77.69 rating and a tidy 20% career win rate for trainer Matthew P. Sims. Gerardo Corrales gets the mount, and from the outside post, this horse will likely track the pace and be rolling late at a mile. He's the kind of consistent performer that shows up in exactas and trifectas at a fair price.

Race 3

5:48 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

A classic split between high-rated but lower-odds horses and lower-rated but high-win-percentage horses makes this 7-furlong starter allowance one of the trickier puzzles on the card.

win6Alta AvenueML 5/1

Alta Avenue sits at the top of our TrackWiz ratings with an 84.17 figure and a 27% career win rate — the strongest combination of both metrics in this field. Rafael Bejarano is a big-race rider who elevates any entry, and at 5/1, there's real value here given the ratings edge. Seven furlongs on dirt is a distance that rewards horses who can extend a sprint, and Alta Avenue's profile fits trainer David Jacobson's typical style of keeping horses fresh and ready.

place2Cold CaseML 6/1

Cold Case comes in at 6/1 with an 80.11 rating and an 18% career win rate for trainer Matt Williams. Francisco Arrieta takes the mount and has been reliable throughout this card. Cold Case shapes up as a presser or closer who could benefit if the pace up front gets honest — at that morning line, there's solid place value here.

show4BalaclavaML 9/5

Balaclava is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 and boasts a staggering 50% career win rate — but the 58.67 TrackWiz rating sits well below both Alta Avenue and Cold Case. Ben Curtis keeps the ride, and trainer Brian Williamson clearly has this horse cranked up, but the rating gap is real. We're using Balaclava third in our vertical exotics as a hedge against the form showing up on race day.

Our three free races today share a common thread: competitive fields where the morning line hasn't buried the best horse. In Race 1, Hesper opens at 5/1 in a 6-furlong Starter Allowance — that's a price worth circling when our TrackWiz rating says this horse is the class of the field. Race 2 stretches out to a mile on the dirt, and Nash Potatoes carries our highest free-race rating of the day (87.81) while sitting at a very fair 5/2 on the morning line. When your top-rated horse is also near the top of the morning line, that's the kind of alignment you want. Then Race 3 brings another Starter Allowance — this time at 7 furlongs — where Alta Avenue mirrors Hesper's 5/1 price and 84.17 rating. Two horses at the same price and the same rating in similar conditions? Worth noting as a potential same-day double or rolling pick-3 anchor.

With cloudy skies keeping the heat manageable, pace scenarios on the dirt should be fairly straightforward — expect honest fractions and ground-saving trips on the rail to matter. Keep that in mind as you watch the early races develop.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden claimer on the turf with a full field of first-time or maiden runners — no one has won before, which puts the TrackWiz ratings and connections front and center.

win6Birch RunML 7/2

Birch Run earns our top rating at 86.35 — a clear class edge over the rest of this maiden field — with Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. up for trainer Paul J. McGee. At 7/2 on the morning line, this isn't a bargain, but the rating gap justifies confidence. On a one-mile turf route with zero career wins across the entire field, the horse with the highest preparation score is the one to beat, and Birch Run fits that description emphatically.

place3MaioraML 3/1

Maiora checks in second in our ratings at 76.21 and draws morning-line second-favorite status at 3/1 — the market agrees this one belongs in the conversation. Luan Machado takes the mount for William D. Cowans, and on the turf at a mile, a horse with this rating profile can definitely earn a place check. Worth including in exacta and trifecta combinations.

show7Lady FayeML 4/1

Lady Faye at 4/1 lands third in our ratings at 63.71 for trainer Joe Blair Roberts, with Adam Beschizza riding. In a full field of maiden turf runners, pace scenarios are unpredictable, and a horse priced at 4/1 with a solid rating and a live jockey gives you a fair shot at the show slot without breaking the bank. She's the right type to include underneath in trifectas.

Race 5

6:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The TrackWiz model is bucking the morning line in a big way in this one-mile dirt claimer — our top-rated horse is posting a double-digit morning line, while the public favorite checks in well below the top of our ratings.

win6Vino CouragioML 10/1

Vino Couragio is our top-rated horse in this race at 76.88, but the morning line of 10/1 screams value play — this is exactly the kind of overlay situation TrackWiz analysis is built to find. Trainer Joel Campbell puts Francisco Arrieta up, and with a 16% career win rate in the books, this horse has shown the ability to fire. At a mile on dirt, pace will shape the outcome, and if Vino Couragio can track a hot early pace and pounce, the payoff could be significant.

place4Contrary ChieftainML 5/1

Contrary Chieftain comes in at 5/1 with a 67.90 rating and a strong 25% career win rate for trainer Robertino Diodoro — one of the sharper conditioners you'll find at this level. Cristian A. Torres gets the call, and the combination of a winning trainer, a capable rider, and a horse who has hit the board frequently makes this an ideal place ticket underneath Vino Couragio.

show8Army OfficerML 3/1

Army Officer is the morning-line favorite at 3/1 but rates third in our model at 63.77, behind both Vino Couragio and Contrary Chieftain. That's a mismatch worth noting. Summer Pauly rides for Genaro Garcia, and the 16% career win rate is fine, but at 3/1, you're not getting compensated for the risk. We include Army Officer in the show slot as a hedge given the public backing, but the real money in this race is keying up from Vino Couragio.

Race 6

7:12 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A maiden special weight on the turf over 5½ furlongs with a field full of first-time starters and debut runners — the ratings are tightly compressed, making trainer and jockey connections as important as any number.

win5GroundswellML 4/1

Groundswell tops our ratings at 55.00 and benefits from the powerful Mark E. Casse barn — the same trainer who also saddles Pride Rock, meaning Casse has two shots at this one. Francisco Arrieta rides Groundswell, and at 4/1 on the morning line, this is the most balanced combination of rating, odds, and connections in the field. On a short turf sprint like 5½ furlongs, breaking alertly matters, and Arrieta is the kind of jockey who gets horses out of the gate cleanly.

place2Admiral's OrderML 9/2

Admiral's Order rates second in our model at 54.17 for trainer Ben Colebrook, with Luan Machado up at 9/2 on the morning line. In a field where the ratings are clustered this closely, the second-best number can easily win, and Admiral's Order is the logical alternative. Colebrook has a good feel for turf sprints, and Machado has been sharp throughout this card.

show1Pride RockML 5/1

Pride Rock rates 53.33 and is the second Casse runner in the field — trainer Casse's stable hits at a high clip, and when he runs two in the same race, both deserve serious consideration. Cristian A. Torres rides at 5/1 on the morning line. If Groundswell gets compromised in traffic or breaks slowly, Pride Rock could easily be there to pick up the pieces, making this a natural show bet.

Race 7

7:42 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

Find No Fault is a standout in the ratings in this one-mile maiden special weight on dirt, but at 3/1 morning line the market already knows it — the real intrigue is whether a pair of longshots rated higher than several morning-line picks can outperform their odds.

win1Find No FaultML 3/1

Find No Fault leads the field with an 86.27 TrackWiz rating — a full 16 points clear of the next-highest rated horse — and draws Gerardo Corrales for trainer Dale L. Romans, one of the most accomplished conditioners in the region. At 3/1 on the morning line, the price is fair but not exciting. What makes this horse compelling is the consistency of the rating in a maiden dirt route where inexperience often causes chaos — Find No Fault simply grades out on top every way we look at it.

place3Sequoia StarsML 15/1

Sequoia Stars at 15/1 is a fascinating TrackWiz value play — the horse rates 69.58, which is third in the entire field, yet the morning line has it buried at 15/1. Trainer J. Kent Sweezey puts Edgar Morales up, and at a mile, a horse with that rating hidden under a longshot price is exactly the kind of place overlay that can deliver big exacta returns. Don't sleep on this one in multi-horse exotics.

show7Oso de OroML 10/1

Oso de Oro rates 67.64 for trainer Brendan P. Walsh — one of the most respected names in the barn — and gets Ben Curtis at 10/1. Walsh rarely ships horses to a spot without having them fit and ready, and Curtis is the kind of rider who will get every inch out of a maiden. At 10/1, Oso de Oro is an outstanding show value and a must-include in trifectas underneath Find No Fault.

Race 8

8:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A 16-horse turf allowance at 5½ furlongs is one of the toughest betting races you'll face all day — big fields on short turf sprints are chaotic, but Military Cruiser's rating towers over the competition.

win7Military CruiserML 7/2

Military Cruiser tops our model at 86.35 — the same elite number we saw from Birch Run and Crossfire earlier today — and draws Cristian A. Torres for trainer Nicholas Vaccarezza. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is appropriately priced as the top selection in a field this size. The 57 average speed figure is the highest in the race, giving Military Cruiser a genuine edge in pure pace terms. In a chaotic 16-horse sprint on the turf, having the fastest horse often matters most, and this one fits.

place9VanderbiltML 6/1

Vanderbilt rates 78.00 with a 33% career win rate — one of the best win percentages in the race — and gets Danny Sheehy up for trainer Jordan Blair at 6/1. That win rate is a real signal that this horse fires when conditions are right, and the 56 average speed figure is right there with the leaders. Vanderbilt is our preferred place bet in a field this deep.

show8TaminoML 10/1

Tamino rates 75.70 for trainer Kinnon LaRose with Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. in the irons at 10/1 on the morning line. A 16% career win rate won't set the world on fire, but Tamino grades out third in the ratings in a 16-horse field, and Hernandez is a skilled pilot who can find a path in traffic on a packed turf course. At 10/1, the show payoff here could be surprisingly healthy.

Race 9

8:42 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This 6-furlong dirt maiden optional claimer is a wide-open affair with no experienced winners in the field, but Crossfire's rating stands head and shoulders above the competition in what shapes up as a pace-pressured sprint.

win7CrossfireML 7/2

Crossfire tops the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — matching the elite scores we saw from Military Cruiser and Birch Run — and draws Ben Curtis for trainer Brendan P. Walsh, a pairing that should inspire confidence. Walsh is one of the best maiden-graduate trainers in the business, and his horses rarely show up underprepared. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's reasonable value for a horse that grades out this far above the field in a 14-runner maiden sprint.

place12Trim CastleML 4/1

Trim Castle rates 66.27 for trainer John Ennis with Danny Sheehy up at 4/1 on the morning line — second in our ratings and attractively priced as the place selection. In a large maiden field at six furlongs, pace can get messy, and Trim Castle's rating profile suggests this horse is capable of tracking the chaos and finishing with purpose. A solid place alternative if Crossfire gets into trouble.

show13Money Man MikeML 3/1

Money Man Mike rates 56.67 for trainer Aaron M. West at 3/1 — the morning-line favorite, though our model has this horse third in the ratings. Francisco Arrieta takes the mount, and a 3/1 morning favorite in a maiden field of this size will attract heavy public action. Despite the ratings gap behind Crossfire and Trim Castle, Money Man Mike's public support means the horse will likely be present at the finish — we include it in the show slot and in trifecta combinations.

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Bottom line: Ellis Park is dealing a nine-race card worth your full attention today. Nash Potatoes is our top-rated free pick and the horse to beat in Race 2, while Hesper and Alta Avenue offer legitimate value in the two Starter Allowances. For the rest of the card — including that juicy 10/1 longshot angle and our Pick 4 ticket — the full analysis is ready and waiting for subscribers. Head to TrackWiz Premium to unlock everything before first post.

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