Daily Picks

Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 12, 2026

Sunday, July 12, 20269 racesEllis Park

It's a beautiful Sunday afternoon at Ellis Park — partly cloudy, 82°F, and nine races on the board ready to be picked apart. Conditions look favorable for the dirt runners today, and with the temperature sitting comfortably in the low 80s, we shouldn't see any weather-related surprises throwing off the pace scenarios.

The card mixes it up nicely: you've got maiden claimers, a pair of turf routes, allowance company, and a Starter Optional Claiming sprint that's drawn a sneaky interesting field. In other words, there's something here for every kind of bettor — whether you're playing singles or trying to string together a multi-race sequence.

TrackWiz has crunched the full card and we're bringing you three free race breakdowns to get you started, plus the complete premium deep-dive for subscribers covering all nine races.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Kenneth G. Miller saddles two of the top-rated horses in this 7-furlong dirt claimer, setting up a potential barn domination — but the TrackWiz numbers say the stablemates are separated by a hair, making this a tricky race to take on faith alone.

win7Mister BanderasML 5/1

Mister Banderas (#7) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 80.21, the highest mark in the field, and he carries that edge for trainer Kenneth G. Miller who clearly has this barn in good form with two horses in the field. Adam Beschizza gets the call and the 5/1 morning line feels workable given how cleanly this horse grades out. With an average speed figure of 55 — tied for the field's best — there's real ability here, and at seven furlongs on dirt this looks like a distance that should suit a horse with his profile.

place8League of LegendsML 8/1

League of Legends (#8) is nearly inseparable from the top pick at a TrackWiz rating of 79.79, and at 8/1 on the morning line there's genuine place value if the price holds. Francisco Arrieta is a reliable hand and the 55 average speed figure matches the field's co-best. The career win percentage of just 8% is worth noting — this horse has a knack for placing without getting to the wire first, which makes the place spot feel like a natural fit.

show4Shadow CoastML 9/2

Shadow Coast (#4) checks in with a 78.47 TrackWiz rating and pairs with Mister Banderas as one of Miller's two entries, giving the trainer a strong grip on the top of this field. The 55 average speed figure is elite for this group and a 20% career win rate suggests steady competitiveness. If you're building an exacta or trifecta, having the trainer's two best horses anchoring the top of the ticket is a logical approach.

Race 2

5:19 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer going a mile on dirt with a dozen runners and every horse still looking for their first win — chaos is the only certainty, but a few clear class separators emerge when you dig into the TrackWiz numbers.

win5WhateverML 5/1

Whatever (#5) leads all horses in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 84.17 — a meaningful gap over the rest of this maiden field — and trainer Sergio Donjuan sends him out with Gerardo Corrales in the irons. At 5/1 on the morning line, the price reflects some respect but not yet the blind favoritism that would kill the value. The 52 average speed figure isn't the field's best, but in maiden company the overall profile score is what jumps off the page here.

place3Can't Stop WillisML 5/2

Can't Stop Willis (#3) is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 and rates second in the field at 77.53, giving this Cameron Milligan trainee a legitimate shot to hit the board. Francisco Arrieta is a strong jockey booking and the 53 average speed figure is respectable for the level. When the top-rated horse in a maiden field goes off at 5/1 and the second-rated is the chalk, the place pool on the top pick can offer real overlay value.

show2PropsML 10/1

Props (#2) is an eye-catching show selection at 10/1 morning line, and the connection to trainer Steven M. Asmussen — one of the most prolific conditioners in North America — is a legitimate angle worth chasing. A TrackWiz rating of 65.31 puts him third in the field and well clear of the bottom half. Keith Asmussen takes the mount, keeping this one strictly in-house, which is often a sign the barn believes.

Race 3

5:48 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

Midway Munny stands out as a class-above in this mile starter allowance, but The Town and Mischief Mania make this more than a one-horse show — pace scenario will be crucial going around two turns.

win7Midway MunnyML 7/2

Midway Munny (#7) is the standout here, posting the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 86.35 and a career win percentage of 33% — best in the field by a wide margin. Trainer Colby Williams has Yedsit Hazlewood in the irons, and the 7/2 morning line makes this a reasonable chalk play rather than a mug bet. The 53 average speed figure is solid for the level, and that elite win rate tells you this horse has consistently converted when given the opportunity.

place1The TownML 9/2

The Town (#1) rates a strong second in the field at 80.07 and brings a 25% career win percentage with Ben Curtis up for trainer Aaron Shorter. The 55 average speed figure actually leads the field, suggesting raw pace ability that could make this horse dangerous on the front end. If Midway Munny gets shuffled back or the trip goes sideways, The Town has the talent to capitalize.

show6Mischief ManiaML 6/1

Mischief Mania (#6) at 6/1 represents solid value in the exotics with a 73.87 TrackWiz rating and an impressive 25% career win rate. Linda Rice is a sharp trainer and Francisco Arrieta aboard is always a reliable booking. The 54 average speed figure keeps her competitive in this group, and the slightly longer morning line makes her a worthwhile trifecta anchor.

Our three free picks today cover Races 1 through 3 — a nice stretch to open the card that sets up some early multi-race action. Mister Banderas (Race 1, 5/1 morning line) kicks things off in the 7-furlong dirt claimer, and that morning line price looks inviting for a horse our model rates at 80-plus. Then it's on to Whatever in the mile maiden claimer (Race 2, 5/1 ML, rated 84.17), where we see real value against a field that looks beatable at today's class level.

Race 3 is arguably the most compelling of the free trio — Midway Munny draws into a Starter Allowance going a mile on the dirt, and a 7/2 morning line on an 86-rated horse in this spot is exactly the kind of early-card overlay TrackWiz loves to highlight. Starter Allowance fields can be tricky to read since horses must have run for a claiming price to be eligible, but Midway Munny's profile clears that bar cleanly. Keep an eye on how the early pace shapes up in Races 1 and 2 — if the dirt is playing speed-friendly, Munny could be sitting in a perfect stalker spot.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

First-time starters dominate this MSW sprint, making this one of the trickier puzzles on the card — trainer pedigree and workouts carry extra weight when race experience is nonexistent across nearly the entire field.

win8E Tee AyeML 3/1

E Tee Aye (#8) earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 56.67 and comes in as the morning-line favorite at 3/1, backed by trainer Paul J. McGee with Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. — one of the best jockeys in the region — securing the mount. As a first-time starter, we're leaning on the overall profile score and the powerful rider booking to make the case. Hernandez doesn't take bad rides in this spot, and the market seems to agree.

place1Jackie's PlayerML 9/2

Jackie's Player (#1) rates second in the field at 54.17 and the Brad H. Cox trainer connection is one of the best first-out angles in the business — Cox consistently gets horses ready to fire fresh. Luan Machado takes the mount and the 9/2 morning line leaves enough room for a live place bet. In a wide-open MSW with no experience to lean on, trainer reputation becomes the tie-breaker.

show5SubliminalML 5/1

Subliminal (#5) is the one horse in this field that carries an average speed figure — 54 — giving our analysis a small but meaningful data point the others don't have. John Alexander Ortiz conditions and Edgar Morales rides, a competent combination at this level. At 5/1, there's show value if the prior work hints at readiness, and that speed figure edge over field-mates who are complete unknowns is worth a small investment in the trifecta.

Race 5

6:44 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A sprawling 16-horse maiden claimer on the Ellis Park turf with the full field spread across a wide ability range — a handful of horses separate from the pack on the TrackWiz numbers, but a big field on grass always keeps longshot hunters in business.

win10Melody ManML 5/2

Melody Man (#10) is the clear top selection here with a field-best TrackWiz rating of 82.25 and an average speed figure of 57 that leads every other runner in this field. J. Kent Sweezey trains and Gerardo Corrales gets the mount, with the 5/2 morning line making this the lukewarm crowd favorite. On a mile turf route with this kind of speed figure separation, Melody Man looks like the class of a wide-open field.

place3Boss' DeedML 10/1

Boss' Deed (#3) rates second in the field at 76.88 and at 10/1 on the morning line is one of the better value angles in this race. Trainer Troy Newton sends him out with Jaime Torres in the irons, and the 54 average speed figure is competitive. The gap between the 10/1 price and his second-best field rating is exactly the kind of overlay our analysis is designed to surface — don't sleep on this one in the exacta.

show15RockfestML 9/2

Rockfest (#15) sits third in the TrackWiz ratings at 75.79 and comes in off a 9/2 morning line that has attracted some market respect. Rafael Bejarano is a savvy turf pilot and trainer James P. DiVito's 55 average speed figure keeps Rockfest squarely in the competitive tier. In a wide turf field, horses with proven pace figures and sharp jockeys tend to find their way onto the board.

Race 6

7:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A tight allowance mile on dirt with a genuine market-beater lurking near the top — the morning-line favorite isn't the top-rated horse in our model, and that discrepancy is where today's best betting opportunity may live.

win6Moon Over ChoctawML 9/2

Moon Over Choctaw (#6) leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 84.90 — beating the 8/5 morning-line chalk by a meaningful margin — and trainer Philip D'Amato ships in with Rafael Bejarano, a combination that's tough to dismiss. A 27% career win percentage is rock solid for an allowance runner and the 54 average speed figure is right in line with the top tier of this field. The 9/2 morning line on the highest-rated horse in the race is exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis is built to find.

place5Tap to OpenML 8/5

Tap to Open (#5) is the heavy crowd favorite at 8/5 and rates second in our model at 80.84, meaning the market and our numbers agree on this horse's quality — just not on who should be on top. Brad H. Cox trains and Jaime Torres rides, an elite combination that deserves respect. A 25% career win rate supports the market position, and in the place pool this likely collapses to near even money, so use it as a key underneath in exactas.

show4HeartbeatML 4/1

Heartbeat (#4) brings the field's best career win percentage at 28% and a TrackWiz rating of 70.02, which slots comfortably into the third tier of this competitive allowance. Florent Geroux is a seasoned jockey who rarely wastes a good trip, and trainer Brian A. Lynch keeps horses fit for these spots. At 4/1, Heartbeat makes a logical trifecta anchor behind the top two selections.

Race 7

7:42 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

This turf allowance optional claimer is headlined by a Mark Casse-trained filly who our model loves, but Wind Flower's elite 37% win rate and the second-best TrackWiz score make this a two-horse race with a morning-line angle worth exploiting.

win7Smiling EllieML 7/2

Smiling Ellie (#7) leads the entire field with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 and brings a 23% career win percentage that's well above average for an allowance optional claimer on turf. Mark Casse is one of the premier turf trainers in the country and Francisco Arrieta gets the call — a sharp booking for a horse going off at 7/2. The 54 average speed figure is in line with the top tier, and the trainer-surface combination here is a legitimate angle.

place3Wind FlowerML 5/1

Wind Flower (#3) is the most intriguing horse in this field on pure career stats — a 37% win rate that absolutely no one else in this field comes close to matching. William Mott trains and Cristian Torres rides, and the 55 average speed figure leads the group. At 5/1, the place price on a horse winning more than one-in-three starts is undervalued, and our second-best rating of 78.44 confirms this is a serious contender.

show4She's Lookin LuckyML 2/1

She's Lookin Lucky (#4) is the morning-line second choice at 2/1 and checks in third on our ratings at 70.54, suggesting the market is perhaps overestimating her relative to the top two. Florent Geroux rides for trainer Matt Shirer and the 54 speed figure is consistent. If you're building a trifecta around Smiling Ellie and Wind Flower, She's Lookin Lucky gives you a defensible third leg at a reasonable price.

Race 8

8:12 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses with 41% career win rates headline this starter optional claimer sprint, but TrackWiz ratings split them clearly — Defending Albert's edge in our model makes this a case of the better horse hiding at a generous price.

win2Defending AlbertML 8/1

Defending Albert (#2) posts the field's top TrackWiz rating at 79.79 and — critically — is tied with Air of Defiance for the highest career win percentage in the field at 41%, an extraordinary number. The 56 average speed figure is also among the field's best, and trainer Coty Rosin sends him out with Francisco Arrieta, a sharp jockey booking at 6.5 furlongs on dirt. The 8/1 morning line on the top-rated horse with a 41% win rate is the kind of price discrepancy that should have serious bettors paying attention.

place6Show TimeML 3/1

Show Time (#6) rates a close second in the field at 77.59 and pairs that with a 56 average speed figure that ties for the field's best. David Jacobson trains and Rafael Bejarano — a rider who knows how to position horses in sprint scenarios — takes the mount at 3/1. With a 29% career win rate and the second-best rating in the field, this is a logical horse to key in exactas beneath the longer-priced Defending Albert.

show5Air of DefianceML 7/2

Air of Defiance (#5) matches Defending Albert with a 41% career win rate — the best in the field — and posts a TrackWiz rating of 76.03 that sits squarely in contention. Gabriel Saez rides for trainer S. Jade Cunningham and the 56 average speed figure is right at the top of the group. The 7/2 morning line reflects market respect, but with two horses rated above her, the show spot feels like the right framing for exotics.

Race 9

8:42 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A massive 16-horse maiden special weight on 5.5 furlongs of turf closes out the Ellis Park card, and this chaotic sprint favors horses with real turf speed figures — Lots of Kisses stands above the field on our ratings, but a pair of double-digit longshots make the exotics compelling.

win14Lots of KissesML 9/2

Lots of Kisses (#14) leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 69.90 and brings a 57 average speed figure that is the second-highest in the entire race — meaningful for a turf sprint where early pace and turf-specific ability matter most. Michael J. Maker is one of the best turf trainers in the country and Yedsit Hazlewood gets the mount, a pairing that should be taken seriously at 9/2. In a 16-horse maiden field on grass, having the top-rated horse with a sharp trainer and strong speed figure is about as much edge as you can ask for.

place16Toast the StarML 12/1

Toast the Star (#16) is our place selection at 12/1 morning line and represents outstanding value if the price holds into post time. A TrackWiz rating of 62.42 puts her second in the field and the 56 average speed figure is right at the elite tier of this group. Edgar Morales is a capable pilot and trainer John Hancock has been known to place horses well in these spots — at double-digit odds this is exactly the kind of longshot place play that pays handsomely.

show10JudiciousML 4/1

Judicious (#10) rates third in the field at 60.82 with a 56 average speed figure and the backing of trainer Philip D'Amato, a name that always commands respect on turf. Francisco Arrieta — one of the meet's busiest and most effective jockeys — takes the mount at 4/1. The combination of a top-five rating, elite turf trainer, and a quality rider makes Judicious a credible show selection and a smart piece of any trifecta ticket in this wide-open closer.

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Bottom line: Ellis Park is serving up a genuinely fun card on a pleasant Sunday afternoon. Midway Munny is our headline free play, but there's real meat in the premium races — particularly the turf sequence and that Race 8 longshot angle. If you want the complete picture before post time, the full TrackWiz card analysis is available to subscribers at /pricing. Good luck out there — let's cash some tickets.

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