Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 10, 2026

Tiz in Sight is our place selection, posting a 70.39 rating alongside the field's top average speed figure of 56. Trainer Chris A. Hartman sends this horse in off a 25% career win rate, and Danny Sheehy is a capable jockey who can track a pace and pounce. In a field this big, having early speed numbers helps secure a clean trip.

Turkish Pistachio at 8/1 is an intriguing show play with a 66.64 rating and a 16% career win rate. Summer Pauly has ridden well in these maiden and claiming events, and trainer Genaro Garcia has this horse pointing toward a forward move. If the pace honest up front and the leaders come back to the field, Turkish Pistachio is positioned to collect a check.

Game Point (No. 8) rates second in the field at 77.15 and carries a 20% career win rate into a race that suits closers on the turf. Mario Gutierrez has experience navigating big fields and finding running room late, and the 5/1 morning line keeps this as a fair-value second choice. If Arthur's Court gets shuffled back in traffic, Game Point could be the one who capitalizes.

You Belong Here (No. 6) brings a 65.94 rating and a 22% career win rate — respectable credentials in a 12-horse turf field. Gabriel Saez is a seasoned jockey who rarely wastes a trip, and trainer Rob Atras has shown a knack for spotting his horses in winnable spots. At 6/1 in the show position, this is a logical piece for your trifecta bottom.

Babysitter (No. 4) is the value angle in the place spot at 10/1 on the morning line, with a 66.45 rating that puts her third in the field. Trainer John Alexander Ortiz is a name worth noting here — he has a history of getting maiden horses sharp for their prime efforts, and H. Luke Hoskins provides a reliable pilot. If Lady Law goes wire-to-wire, Babysitter has the profile to track the pace and hold second.

Sweet Reward opens at 4/1, the second-shortest price in the field, and earns that respect with a 55.00 rating and a top average speed figure tied at 55. Trainer William I. Mott is one of the premier conditioners in the game, and Axel Concepcion will keep this filly relaxed early before asking for run in the stretch. Even in a maiden race, Mott's first-timers or lightly raced horses are never to be dismissed.

Homeawayfromhome (No. 1) rates at 54.17 with trainer Brendan P. Walsh sending this horse out — Walsh is one of the most accomplished turf conditioners operating today, and his maiden grass runners deserve serious attention regardless of the odds. Ben Curtis takes the mount, providing top-shelf guidance, and the 9/2 price is worth including in your exacta beneath Epic Fashionista.

Glycogen (No. 7) checks in at 51.67 on the TrackWiz model, and trainer John C. Servis has a steady hand with grass maidens. Yedsit Hazlewood is an underrated pilot who can get a clean trip from the seven post in a 12-horse field. At 6/1 on the morning line, this is a logical show play or trifecta include if the field spreads out early.

Glory Run (No. 7) opens as the morning-line favorite at 3/1 and carries a 100% win rate — though in allowance company, that often means a lightly raced horse with upside. Alex Achard has excellent feel for this distance and surface, and trainer John Ennis is consistent at this level. The 56 average speed figure adds some reassurance that the talent matches the winning record.

Sweet Mary (No. 2) offers a 50% career win rate and a 55 average speed figure from what appears to be a small but productive sample. Francisco Arrieta aboard for trainer Carlos Santamaria gives this horse a capable pilot at 4/1, and at six furlongs, a horse who has won half her starts knows how to get to the wire. She's a natural show hedge in any exotics play.

Twirling Claire (No. 1) is a legitimate win threat herself at 81.56, with a field-best 57 average speed figure that stands out in a turf sprint where pure pace matters. The 20% career win rate is respectable, and Edgar Morales navigates inside posts well on the turf. Trainer Gregory D. Foley has this filly primed, and the 9/2 morning line could drift — which makes her even better value if the market underestimates her.

Mechaya (No. 2) rates at 74.35 with Rafael Bejarano — a veteran turf rider with impeccable feel — getting the mount for trainer James P. DiVito. The 55 average speed figure is competitive in this group, and the 7/2 morning line suggests strong market support. In a trifecta box alongside My Sweetheart and Twirling Claire, Mechaya is the natural third leg.

Countthetrue (No. 10) checks in just below at 54.17 and opens at 9/2, trained by Wayne M. Catalano — a conditioner who has a strong record with maiden sprinters at mid-level tracks. Victor R. Carrasco takes the mount and provides a decisive hand on a horse that will need to break cleanly from the 10 post in a crowded field. If Sweet Venture gets shuffled in traffic early, Countthetrue is in position to inherit the pace.

For the Win (No. 7) comes in at 53.33 with trainer George Weaver, whose operation doesn't miss many spots when placing a maiden. Declan Cannon has ridden Weaver horses with notable success, and a 5/1 morning line on a horse from this barn in a sprint maiden is worth including as the show leg of a trifecta. In a 15-horse race, a steady pace setup and a clean trip are all this horse needs to hit the board.