Daily Picks

Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 10, 2026

Friday, July 10, 20269 racesEllis Park

Ellis Park is open for business on a pleasant Friday afternoon — partly cloudy skies and 81°F means comfortable conditions for both horses and horseplayers. With nine races spread across dirt and turf, there's plenty of action to work through today.

The card leans heavily on claiming and allowance company, but a pair of Maiden Special Weight events in Races 5 and 6 give us some intrigue on both surfaces. The turf course figures to play a big role today — four of the nine races are contested on the grass — so keep an eye on how those early turf runners handle the going before you commit to your later tickets.

TrackWiz has you covered from the jump with free best bet analysis on Races 1, 2, and 3, and full premium breakdowns on the back half of the card where the most complex wagering opportunities live.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

One horse stands miles above this claiming field on paper, but the 3/1 morning line keeps it honest — the real question is who survives a likely honest pace to fill out the exacta.

win1Bourbon and SpiceML 3/1

Bourbon and Spice is the clear top selection here, posting a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 that dwarfs the rest of the field by nearly 30 points. The 20% career win rate is solid for a claimer, and Summer Pauly gets the call for trainer Ed Moger, Jr. — a reliable combination at this level. At 3/1 on the morning line, you're not getting overlay value, but the rating edge is commanding enough that this is a must-include in any exotics construction today.

place7Lady PippaML 4/1

Lady Pippa comes in with a 58.85 rating — second best in the field — and Axel Concepcion is a capable pilot who knows how to rate a horse and find a spot on the rail. The 9% career win rate is modest, but in place scenarios at this class level, consistency matters more than peak wins, and this filly has the profile to hang around for a piece.

show6McSniperML 5/1

McSniper checks in with a 51.44 rating and a 25% career win rate, giving Martin Garcia something workable to steer. The 5/1 morning line suggests the market respects this horse's chances, and at six furlongs on dirt, a pace setup that sees the leaders go hard early could leave McSniper finishing well for the minor awards.

Race 2

5:19 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A one-mile turf claimer with a clear top-rated horse but a trio of legitimate contenders within striking distance — pace and positioning off the grass rail could be the difference-maker.

win1Gift GivingML 7/2

Gift Giving is the standout, carrying an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and an eye-catching 40% career win rate — that's not a typo, and it's the best win percentage in the field by a wide margin. Rafael Bejarano is an experienced hand on the turf, and trainer David Jacobson knows how to place a horse. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is as close to a 'bet with confidence' spot as you'll find in a claimer.

place4Storm BayML 9/2

Storm Bay has a 78.23 rating and while the 6% career win rate looks soft, this horse's overall profile suggests more near-misses than the headline number implies. William Antongeorgi III at 9/2 provides a price worth playing in the exotics — if Gift Giving gets caught wide or encounters traffic on the turf course, Storm Bay has the rating to capitalize.

show8Never Really KnowML 4/1

Never Really Know (No. 8) is nearly identical to Storm Bay in raw rating at 78.12, and Francisco Arrieta is one of the sharper pilots in this barn area. Trainer Norm W. Casse sends out horses ready to run, and a 20% career win rate on a 4/1 shot in a show spot makes this a logical third wheel in the trifecta.

Race 3

5:48 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An 11-horse dirt sprint with a class separator hiding in plain sight at 5/1 — the pace could get messy early, setting up a one-two punch from the horses who rate off the speed.

win6Split SuccessML 5/1

Split Success carries the top rating in this field at 84.17, a significant edge in an 11-horse claiming sprint where chaos is always a factor. Abel Cedillo rides for trainer Matt A. Shirer, and the 28% career win rate is among the strongest in the field. At 5/1 on the morning line, this is a genuine value play — that rating advantage should be reflected at shorter odds, so if the market gives you 5/1 at post time, you take it.

place10Tiz in SightML 4/1

Tiz in Sight is our place selection, posting a 70.39 rating alongside the field's top average speed figure of 56. Trainer Chris A. Hartman sends this horse in off a 25% career win rate, and Danny Sheehy is a capable jockey who can track a pace and pounce. In a field this big, having early speed numbers helps secure a clean trip.

show9Turkish PistachioML 8/1

Turkish Pistachio at 8/1 is an intriguing show play with a 66.64 rating and a 16% career win rate. Summer Pauly has ridden well in these maiden and claiming events, and trainer Genaro Garcia has this horse pointing toward a forward move. If the pace honest up front and the leaders come back to the field, Turkish Pistachio is positioned to collect a check.

Our three free races today all come in the early part of the card, and they span both surfaces — giving you an immediate read on where the bias, if any, is sitting. On the dirt, Bourbon and Spice (Race 1, morning line 3/1) headlines the opener over six furlongs, posting a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 that leads the entire card. In Race 2, the action shifts to a one-mile turf route where Gift Giving (7/2 ML, 86.35 rating) looks like a solid foundation piece for multi-race sequences. Then back to the dirt in Race 3, where Split Success at a juicy 5/1 morning line (84.17 rating) could offer real value in another six-furlong dash.

Take note of how the pace scenarios develop in these early races — if front-runners are getting caught in Race 1, that's useful information heading into the dirt sprints later on. These first three races are your free window into today's card, and they're worth handicapping carefully before the premium portion kicks in.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A full field of 12 goes a mile on the turf in a claiming event — there's a clear top-rated contender, but the morning line has five horses at 6/1 or shorter, signaling the handicappers see this as wide open.

win2Arthur's CourtML 6/1

Arthur's Court tops the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 and checks every major box: solid 18% career win rate, Ben Curtis in the irons — Curtis is always a rider worth following at Ellis Park — and trainer Aaron Shorter placing the horse at a mile on turf where the setup favors horses with tactical pace. At 6/1 on the morning line, the potential return is attractive relative to the quality edge this horse holds.

place8Game PointML 5/1

Game Point (No. 8) rates second in the field at 77.15 and carries a 20% career win rate into a race that suits closers on the turf. Mario Gutierrez has experience navigating big fields and finding running room late, and the 5/1 morning line keeps this as a fair-value second choice. If Arthur's Court gets shuffled back in traffic, Game Point could be the one who capitalizes.

show6You Belong HereML 6/1

You Belong Here (No. 6) brings a 65.94 rating and a 22% career win rate — respectable credentials in a 12-horse turf field. Gabriel Saez is a seasoned jockey who rarely wastes a trip, and trainer Rob Atras has shown a knack for spotting his horses in winnable spots. At 6/1 in the show position, this is a logical piece for your trifecta bottom.

Race 5

6:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden special weight going a mile on dirt — every horse is still looking for that first win, so trainer pedigree and recent work patterns carry extra weight when the past performances don't tell the whole story.

win2Lady LawML 5/1

Lady Law tops this maiden field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating despite a 5/1 morning line that suggests the public hasn't fully caught on yet. Luan Machado gets the mount for trainer W. Bret Calhoun, who is sharp with maiden horses and knows how to have them ready first or second out. In a mile maiden special weight, the class edge Lady Law shows on our model is exactly the kind of edge you want to back.

place4BabysitterML 10/1

Babysitter (No. 4) is the value angle in the place spot at 10/1 on the morning line, with a 66.45 rating that puts her third in the field. Trainer John Alexander Ortiz is a name worth noting here — he has a history of getting maiden horses sharp for their prime efforts, and H. Luke Hoskins provides a reliable pilot. If Lady Law goes wire-to-wire, Babysitter has the profile to track the pace and hold second.

show9Sweet RewardML 4/1

Sweet Reward opens at 4/1, the second-shortest price in the field, and earns that respect with a 55.00 rating and a top average speed figure tied at 55. Trainer William I. Mott is one of the premier conditioners in the game, and Axel Concepcion will keep this filly relaxed early before asking for run in the stretch. Even in a maiden race, Mott's first-timers or lightly raced horses are never to be dismissed.

Race 6

7:12 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open 12-horse maiden turf sprint at 5½ furlongs — many of these horses are first-time starters or lightly raced, making trainer angle and breeding almost as important as any past performance line.

win5Epic FashionistaML 7/2

Epic Fashionista heads the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden turf sprint at 55.83, and trainer Mark E. Casse is one of the best in the business at preparing turf maidens for a winning debut. Francisco Arrieta gets the call, and his experience on grass gives the partnership a tactical edge in what figures to be a pace-pressured 5½-furlong heat. The 7/2 morning line reflects market respect, but there's still upside here given the Casse barn's consistent first-out stats.

place1HomeawayfromhomeML 9/2

Homeawayfromhome (No. 1) rates at 54.17 with trainer Brendan P. Walsh sending this horse out — Walsh is one of the most accomplished turf conditioners operating today, and his maiden grass runners deserve serious attention regardless of the odds. Ben Curtis takes the mount, providing top-shelf guidance, and the 9/2 price is worth including in your exacta beneath Epic Fashionista.

show7GlycogenML 6/1

Glycogen (No. 7) checks in at 51.67 on the TrackWiz model, and trainer John C. Servis has a steady hand with grass maidens. Yedsit Hazlewood is an underrated pilot who can get a clean trip from the seven post in a 12-horse field. At 6/1 on the morning line, this is a logical show play or trifecta include if the field spreads out early.

Race 7

7:42 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Intrigue surrounds this six-furlong dirt allowance — multiple horses carry perfect 100% win records (suggesting limited career starts), while the top-rated horse opens at a price that screams value in an allowance field.

win4TechwerkianML 10/1

Techwerkian is our top selection despite the 10/1 morning line, carrying the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 76.88 — a significant edge over the next-closest contenders. The 33% career win rate is the most meaningful of any horse not carrying a 100% rate from just one start, and Summer Pauly rides for trainer Rey Hernandez in what shapes up as a pace-influenced race. If you can get double-digit odds on the top-rated horse in a six-furlong allowance, you take that bet.

place7Glory RunML 3/1

Glory Run (No. 7) opens as the morning-line favorite at 3/1 and carries a 100% win rate — though in allowance company, that often means a lightly raced horse with upside. Alex Achard has excellent feel for this distance and surface, and trainer John Ennis is consistent at this level. The 56 average speed figure adds some reassurance that the talent matches the winning record.

show2Sweet MaryML 4/1

Sweet Mary (No. 2) offers a 50% career win rate and a 55 average speed figure from what appears to be a small but productive sample. Francisco Arrieta aboard for trainer Carlos Santamaria gives this horse a capable pilot at 4/1, and at six furlongs, a horse who has won half her starts knows how to get to the wire. She's a natural show hedge in any exotics play.

Race 8

8:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

An 11-horse allowance on the turf at 5½ furlongs features a tight cluster of legitimate contenders near the top of the ratings — this is a pace-dependent race where the right trip could elevate several horses.

win7My SweetheartML 5/1

My Sweetheart tops the field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and a 56 average speed figure that ranks among the best in this allowance. Cristian A. Torres rides for the powerful Mark E. Casse barn, a combination that consistently produces on the turf, and a 14% career win rate in allowance company speaks to a horse who competes at this level regularly without embarrassing herself. The 5/1 morning line feels fair — maybe even generous — for the top-rated horse in a field this deep.

place1Twirling ClaireML 9/2

Twirling Claire (No. 1) is a legitimate win threat herself at 81.56, with a field-best 57 average speed figure that stands out in a turf sprint where pure pace matters. The 20% career win rate is respectable, and Edgar Morales navigates inside posts well on the turf. Trainer Gregory D. Foley has this filly primed, and the 9/2 morning line could drift — which makes her even better value if the market underestimates her.

show2MechayaML 7/2

Mechaya (No. 2) rates at 74.35 with Rafael Bejarano — a veteran turf rider with impeccable feel — getting the mount for trainer James P. DiVito. The 55 average speed figure is competitive in this group, and the 7/2 morning line suggests strong market support. In a trifecta box alongside My Sweetheart and Twirling Claire, Mechaya is the natural third leg.

Race 9

8:42 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a massive 15-horse maiden optional claimer at six furlongs on dirt — the large field creates pace chaos and gives longshots a fighting chance, but the top of the ratings cluster is narrow enough to anchor your tickets.

win3Sweet VentureML 4/1

Sweet Venture (No. 3) earns the top pick with a 55.00 TrackWiz rating and the benefit of trainer Eddie Kenneally, who consistently delivers maiden horses ready to run. Francisco Arrieta is an excellent pilot for a first or second-out maiden, and the 4/1 morning line is the shortest price among our top three picks — the market agrees this is the horse to beat. In a 15-horse field, getting a Kenneally-trained horse at 4/1 in the morning is worth acting on.

place10CountthetrueML 9/2

Countthetrue (No. 10) checks in just below at 54.17 and opens at 9/2, trained by Wayne M. Catalano — a conditioner who has a strong record with maiden sprinters at mid-level tracks. Victor R. Carrasco takes the mount and provides a decisive hand on a horse that will need to break cleanly from the 10 post in a crowded field. If Sweet Venture gets shuffled in traffic early, Countthetrue is in position to inherit the pace.

show7For the WinML 5/1

For the Win (No. 7) comes in at 53.33 with trainer George Weaver, whose operation doesn't miss many spots when placing a maiden. Declan Cannon has ridden Weaver horses with notable success, and a 5/1 morning line on a horse from this barn in a sprint maiden is worth including as the show leg of a trifecta. In a 15-horse race, a steady pace setup and a clean trip are all this horse needs to hit the board.

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Today's Ellis Park card is a solid Friday afternoon slate with real wagering depth. Bourbon and Spice is the top-rated horse on the card and a sensible starting point, but the value hunt runs all nine races — especially with Techwerkian lurking at double-digits in Race 7. Free analysis covers Races 1–3; subscribers get the full card, pace scenarios, and exotic strategies. Good luck out there — and as always, bet smart.

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