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Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 9, 2026

July 9, 20269 racesAll Ellis Park picks

This card ran on July 9, 2026.

Best bets at Ellis Park, July 9, 2026

Race 14Quick to CharmML 5/212:50 PM EDT

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Ellis Park rolls out a nine-race Thursday card under partly cloudy skies and 86°F heat — warm enough to keep things interesting on both the dirt and the turf, where two of today's later races figure to draw sharp attention. It's a well-rounded afternoon that mixes maiden claimers early, a pair of maiden special weights in the middle portion, and allowance company to close things out.

The turf gets a real workout today with three races on the grass — Races 5, 7, and 9 — spread across the card. In this kind of heat, a firm or near-firm turf course can play to closers who save ground, so pace scenario matters more than usual on those legs. Keep that in the back of your mind as you build your tickets.

Three races are open to everyone today, and they cover the early part of the card nicely — a pair of maiden claimers and a claiming sprint that give you a real feel for how the track is playing before the bigger decisions arrive.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claimer at six furlongs that splits cleanly at the top — two horses rated nearly identically separate themselves from a field that falls off sharply below them, setting up a potential exacta battle between the chalk and an overpriced morning line number.

win4Quick to CharmML 5/2

Quick to Charm (#4) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and draws in at a playable 5/2 on the morning line with trainer Mark Casse sending her out — Casse consistently puts first-time starters in position to win, and the Cristian Torres booking is a solid sign of confidence. Her average speed figure of 54 is in line with the field, but the overall rating edge over everyone except Shot At Perfection gives her a real cushion. In a maiden claimer at six furlongs, pace can get honest fast, and a horse with this kind of profile from a sharp barn typically has the early education to handle it.

place6Shot At PerfectionML 2/1

Shot At Perfection (#6) is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and carries a TrackWiz rating of 86.92 — essentially a dead-heat with Quick to Charm at the top. Trainer Ian Wilkes has a sharp eye for placing horses, and Francisco Arrieta is a capable pilot. If Quick to Charm handles the pace better, Shot At Perfection's profile still screams runner-up at minimum.

show1Gorrono RanchML 8/1

Gorrono Ranch (#1) is an interesting underneath play at 8/1 on the morning line, trained by the powerhouse Steven Asmussen and carrying the top TrackWiz rating of 69.71 among the second tier of this field. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. is one of the best riders in the country and doesn't take throwaway mounts — that combo at this price in an 8/1 opener is worth a spot in your exacta/trifecta coverage.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:19 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A stretched-out maiden claimer going a mile on dirt features a clear top tier, but the Garcia barn saddles two runners which could create some interesting pace dynamics and complicate the favorite's path home.

win6LexicoML 3/1

Lexico (#6) sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and goes at a reasonable 3/1 on the morning line — the top number in a field where most horses are bunched between 37 and 78. Trainer Donald Habeeb has him ready with an avg speed of 52, consistent with the field baseline, but the overall profile edge is meaningful over a mile where horses with class advantages tend to assert themselves in the final quarter. Edgar Morales is a reliable pilot who knows how to manage pace situations going the classic distance.

place4SilvertownML 7/2

Silvertown (#4) checks in at 78.81 on the TrackWiz scale — second best in this field — and goes at 7/2, which actually represents decent value given how close she is to the top-rated Lexico. Trainer Genaro Garcia also runs My Secret Dreams in this race, so he's got the barn covered; Summer Pauly gets the mount and has the horse pointed correctly for a one-mile dirt trip.

show1My Secret DreamsML 9/2

My Secret Dreams (#1) is the third horse in the TrackWiz hierarchy at 73.86 and also comes from the Garcia barn, meaning the trainer has genuine firepower in two spots. At 9/2 on the morning line, she offers solid value as a show play or trifecta piece — if Lexico wires the field, the Garcia runners could easily fill the placings behind her.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Our three free best bets today are clustered in the opening trio of races, and there's a consistent thread running through them: horses with solid TrackWiz ratings in the upper 80s sitting at fair morning-line prices. Quick to Charm (Race 1, 5/2 ML) leads the way on the dirt sprint, followed by Lexico (Race 2, 3/1 ML) stretching out to a mile, and Editor (Race 3, 5/2 ML) in the claiming sprint at 6½ furlongs.

All three carry TrackWiz ratings north of 87 — a meaningful threshold in this company — and none is being asked to do anything outside their established profile. If the early dirt is playing honest and speed is getting rewarded, the pace scenario in Race 3 especially sets up in a way that could make Editor tough to catch. Use the free picks to calibrate before you commit real money in the premium half of the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:48 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A claiming sprint over 6.5 furlongs where the TrackWiz top-rated horse comes in as a manageable price, but a sneaky 100% career win rate from an accomplished barn and a Brad Cox runner right behind could complicate the pace picture considerably.

win4EditorML 5/2

Editor (#4) leads the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and enters with a 40% career win rate — meaning when he fires, he fires. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. stays aboard for trainer Jake Radosevich, and at 5/2 on the morning line, this is a fair price for the top-rated horse. His average speed figure of 55 ties the field ceiling, and the 6.5-furlong distance should suit a horse with his profile.

place1Damascus SteelML 5/1

Damascus Steel (#1) carries an 81.73 rating and a legitimate 40% career win percentage, trained by Destin Heath and ridden by Ben Curtis. He's going at 5/1 on the morning line, which looks like soft money for a horse this accomplished in a claiming field — Curtis is capable of getting him into the right spot off a clean break from the rail.

show8Horse of the SeaML 3/1

Horse of the Sea (#8) comes in at 3/1 on the morning line with a solid 75.5 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate from the Brad Cox barn — that last part matters. Cox runners at Ellis Park rarely run flat, and at 3/1 this horse has every reason to be sniffing around the bottom of the exacta or better. He's the show play that could easily outrun his position in the order.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

2:16 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A first-time-starter-heavy maiden special weight over 5.5 furlongs on dirt, with virtually the entire field at zero career starts — making trainer reputation and workouts the primary handicapping levers in what figures to be a wide-open guessing game.

win4TambelinaML 5/2

Tambelina (#4) tops our picks at 5/2 on the morning line and carries a 57.5 TrackWiz rating — the highest among a tightly bunched field. Brad Cox is one of the premier trainers in the country, and his first-time starters are not throw-ins; he targets specific spots and often wins them. Luan Machado knows Cox horses well, and the 5/2 price is fair for the combination of trainer profile and top rating in a field where nobody has raced.

place8Maple RidgeML 4/1

Maple Ridge (#8) is the other Asmussen runner in the field alongside Sheza Go Getter, and at 4/1 she carries a 55.0 TrackWiz rating — solid in context. Asmussen with Brian Hernandez Jr. on the win pick suggests this barn means business; Maple Ridge at a slightly longer price is worth including under and around as a place play or exacta piece.

show2Speak for YourselfML 9/2

Speak for Yourself (#2) goes at 9/2 on the morning line with trainer John Servis — a horseman with a long track record of getting horses ready to run first out. The 54.17 rating is just a hair off Tambelina's, making her a legitimate contender for the minor awards rather than a pure throw-in. Jaime Torres is also a capable hand who can get a green horse into a comfortable spot early.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 5

2:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A maiden special weight on the Ellis turf going 1 1/16 miles features a top two separated clearly from the rest of the field on TrackWiz ratings, while a 15/1 shot from a sharp barn lurks as the most interesting value play on the board.

win9SwerveML 9/2

Swerve (#9) lands at the top of our TrackWiz rankings with an 83.41 rating and heads to the gate at 9/2 on the morning line — offering real value for a top-rated turf router. Trainer Keith Desormeaux is an experienced hand on grass, and Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. is the kind of pilot you want aboard a horse stretching out on the turf for the first time. An average speed of 54 aligns with the field, but the rating advantage is real.

place5ProviderML 4/1

Provider (#5) checks in at 81.15 on the TrackWiz scale — just two points off Swerve — and draws at 4/1 with trainer Peter Eurton, who has a strong national reputation for placing horses in the right spot. Rafael Bejarano is dialed in on this surface type, and with a clean trip at 1 1/16 on turf, this one could press Swerve all the way to the wire.

show2Clark's CornerML 15/1

Clark's Corner (#2) is the longshot angle hiding in the show slot — a 15/1 morning line price with a 58.41 TrackWiz rating that actually leads this field in the second tier. Ian Wilkes is a trainer who quietly gets results at Churchill-circuit tracks, and Francisco Arrieta is a steady rider who can get a price horse into a ground-saving trip. At that morning line, he's worth boxing into trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 6

3:12 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A sprawling 16-horse maiden special weight at 5.5 furlongs is a punter's nightmare — with the bulk of the field rated nearly identically and most runners first-time starters, the top-rated horse and barn pedigree of the trainer become the clearest differentiators.

win7TalleyrandML 5/2

Talleyrand (#7) is our top choice at 5/2 on the morning line with a 57.5 TrackWiz rating that leads this field. Trainer Brendan Walsh is excellent in short sprint maiden situations, and Ben Curtis knows how to get a horse out of a big field cleanly. In a 16-horse maiden sprint, positioning at the break is everything — the Curtis-Walsh combination gives Talleyrand the best chance of landing in a good spot early.

place9Implied OpenML 4/1

Implied Open (#9) rates at 55.0 and goes at 4/1 on the morning line — a fair price for a horse this close to the top of the ratings. Trainer William Walden with Axel Concepcion navigating a big field is a workable combo, and in a race where chaos at the break can shuffle the order, having the second-rated horse in a spot to capitalize on traffic makes him a natural underneath play.

show11Tactical TuneML 9/2

Tactical Tune (#11) at 9/2 carries a 54.17 TrackWiz rating and hails from the Norm Casse barn — a trainer who knows how to spot a first-starter in the right race. Francisco Arrieta picks up the mount and has the experience to find a spot in a packed field. In a race this wide and this deep, having three solid ratings-based horses covering exotics is the smart play.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 16 runners

Race 7

3:42 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

A loaded turf allowance mile with 14 runners features a clear top-two on the TrackWiz ratings, but a monster field means pace could get wild early and closers with good grass figures should be watched — this is a race to go deep in exotics.

win7La CanteraML 4/1

La Cantera (#7) tops the TrackWiz board at 85.62 and goes at a very fair 4/1 on the morning line — the top-rated horse in an allowance field should be receiving more attention than this price implies. Trainer Carlos David has a 22% career win rate from this horse, and Axel Concepcion is a competent pilot in turf route situations. An average speed of 55 is at the top of the field's range, and the rating gap between La Cantera and the rest of the mid-field is substantial.

place5IconaML 3/1

Icona (#5) carries a 79.42 TrackWiz rating and a 33% career win rate — that win percentage stands out in a race where most horses are in single digits. Brendan Walsh sends her out and she gets Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr., which is one of the stronger trainer-jockey pairings in the Midwest. At 3/1, she's the morning line favorite, and with a horse rated this high running for a barn this sharp, underneath plays are very much in play.

show8No Other Like YouML 8/1

No Other Like You (#8) rates at 71.22 with an 18% career win rate and goes at 8/1 — a price that seems generous for a horse this well-rated in a turf route. Trainer David Fawkes has her positioned correctly, and Ben Curtis is a very capable jockey on this surface. In a 14-horse field where the top two might fight each other, a well-rated 8/1 shot filling the trifecta spot is exactly the kind of play that pays.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

Race 8

4:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

A seven-furlong dirt allowance with a fascinating split at the top — the race's highest-rated horse is not the morning line favorite, and the 2/1 chalk carries a 100% win rate that creates significant fade potential if the market has overreacted to a small sample.

win1KenzML 5/1

Kenz (#1) leads the field with an 80.67 TrackWiz rating and a 33% career win rate, going at 5/1 despite being our top-rated horse — that gap between our number and the morning line is where value lives. Steven Asmussen puts Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. aboard, which is never an accident from this barn. An average speed of 55 matches the field ceiling, and seven furlongs on dirt is squarely in the wheelhouse of a horse with this speed profile.

place5Bet the GrayML 10/1

Bet the Gray (#5) is the surprise of this analysis — a 10/1 morning line shot rated 71.88 by TrackWiz, which is the second-highest number in the field. Trainer Matt Williams is sending her out at a price that doesn't reflect the underlying figures, and Francisco Arrieta knows how to get the most out of a closer in a seven-furlong speed-heavy field. This is a genuine value play underneath.

show4If If IfML 8/1

If If If (#4) rates at 71.67 — nearly identical to Bet the Gray — and also goes at a generous 8/1 morning line. Rafael Bejarano has the mount for Chris Hartman, and a 33% career win rate shows this horse knows how to convert. In a race where the favorite is 2/1 and carries a 100% win rate on a small sample, having two 70+ rated horses lurking at big prices underneath makes for a compelling trifecta wheel.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 9

4:42 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

The starter allowance closer on turf at a mile features an 11-horse field where the TrackWiz top two are meaningfully separated from the pack — but a handful of horses with impressive career win rates at longer odds could scramble the minor awards.

win5SnareML 9/2

Snare (#5) is the standout of the card's finale — an 84.9 TrackWiz rating in a starter allowance field is a significant advantage, and Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. climbing aboard for trainer Paul McGee is a serious booking. At 9/2 on the morning line, the price is fair for what is comfortably the top-rated horse in the race. An average speed of 56 leads the entire 11-horse field, and on the turf at a mile that edge in raw numbers combined with the top figures makes Snare our strongest opinion of the nightcap.

place2Abbi FedeML 5/2

Abbi Fede (#2) rates second in the field at 79.57 and goes at 5/2 — making her the morning line favorite despite not topping our ratings. Joe Sharp is a trainer who excels in spots like this, and Ben Curtis has won plenty of races on turf. The 7% career win rate is modest, but in a starter allowance the class level is compressed and a horse this well-rated from this barn tends to show up.

show6Michael's CoveML 5/1

Michael's Cove (#6) goes at 5/1 on the morning line with a 62.62 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate — that winning percentage in a starter allowance field is excellent context. Trainer Troy Newton has him pointed at this spot, Edgar Morales gets the mount, and an average speed of 55 is respectable in this company. He's the natural third wheel in your trifecta construction and a legitimate threat to outrun his position.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

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Today's Ellis Park card is a solid Thursday afternoon with legitimate angles from the first race to the ninth. Quick to Charm, Lexico, and Editor anchor the free side of the card, while the turf races and allowance closers offer the most upside for subscribers hunting multi-race value. Good luck out there — and remember, full-card analysis including pace projections and exotic tickets is waiting for you at /pricing.

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