Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 9, 2026
Ellis Park rolls out a nine-race Thursday card under partly cloudy skies and 86°F heat — warm enough to keep things interesting on both the dirt and the turf, where two of today's later races figure to draw sharp attention. It's a well-rounded afternoon that mixes maiden claimers early, a pair of maiden special weights in the middle portion, and allowance company to close things out.
The turf gets a real workout today with three races on the grass — Races 5, 7, and 9 — spread across the card. In this kind of heat, a firm or near-firm turf course can play to closers who save ground, so pace scenario matters more than usual on those legs. Keep that in the back of your mind as you build your tickets.
Three races are open to everyone today, and they cover the early part of the card nicely — a pair of maiden claimers and a claiming sprint that give you a real feel for how the track is playing before the bigger decisions arrive.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A maiden claimer at six furlongs that splits cleanly at the top — two horses rated nearly identically separate themselves from a field that falls off sharply below them, setting up a potential exacta battle between the chalk and an overpriced morning line number.
Quick to Charm (#4) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and draws in at a playable 5/2 on the morning line with trainer Mark Casse sending her out — Casse consistently puts first-time starters in position to win, and the Cristian Torres booking is a solid sign of confidence. Her average speed figure of 54 is in line with the field, but the overall rating edge over everyone except Shot At Perfection gives her a real cushion. In a maiden claimer at six furlongs, pace can get honest fast, and a horse with this kind of profile from a sharp barn typically has the early education to handle it.
Shot At Perfection (#6) is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and carries a TrackWiz rating of 86.92 — essentially a dead-heat with Quick to Charm at the top. Trainer Ian Wilkes has a sharp eye for placing horses, and Francisco Arrieta is a capable pilot. If Quick to Charm handles the pace better, Shot At Perfection's profile still screams runner-up at minimum.
Gorrono Ranch (#1) is an interesting underneath play at 8/1 on the morning line, trained by the powerhouse Steven Asmussen and carrying the top TrackWiz rating of 69.71 among the second tier of this field. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. is one of the best riders in the country and doesn't take throwaway mounts — that combo at this price in an 8/1 opener is worth a spot in your exacta/trifecta coverage.
Race 2
Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
A stretched-out maiden claimer going a mile on dirt features a clear top tier, but the Garcia barn saddles two runners which could create some interesting pace dynamics and complicate the favorite's path home.
Lexico (#6) sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and goes at a reasonable 3/1 on the morning line — the top number in a field where most horses are bunched between 37 and 78. Trainer Donald Habeeb has him ready with an avg speed of 52, consistent with the field baseline, but the overall profile edge is meaningful over a mile where horses with class advantages tend to assert themselves in the final quarter. Edgar Morales is a reliable pilot who knows how to manage pace situations going the classic distance.
Silvertown (#4) checks in at 78.81 on the TrackWiz scale — second best in this field — and goes at 7/2, which actually represents decent value given how close she is to the top-rated Lexico. Trainer Genaro Garcia also runs My Secret Dreams in this race, so he's got the barn covered; Summer Pauly gets the mount and has the horse pointed correctly for a one-mile dirt trip.
My Secret Dreams (#1) is the third horse in the TrackWiz hierarchy at 73.86 and also comes from the Garcia barn, meaning the trainer has genuine firepower in two spots. At 9/2 on the morning line, she offers solid value as a show play or trifecta piece — if Lexico wires the field, the Garcia runners could easily fill the placings behind her.
Race 3
Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt
A claiming sprint over 6.5 furlongs where the TrackWiz top-rated horse comes in as a manageable price, but a sneaky 100% career win rate from an accomplished barn and a Brad Cox runner right behind could complicate the pace picture considerably.
Editor (#4) leads the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and enters with a 40% career win rate — meaning when he fires, he fires. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. stays aboard for trainer Jake Radosevich, and at 5/2 on the morning line, this is a fair price for the top-rated horse. His average speed figure of 55 ties the field ceiling, and the 6.5-furlong distance should suit a horse with his profile.
Damascus Steel (#1) carries an 81.73 rating and a legitimate 40% career win percentage, trained by Destin Heath and ridden by Ben Curtis. He's going at 5/1 on the morning line, which looks like soft money for a horse this accomplished in a claiming field — Curtis is capable of getting him into the right spot off a clean break from the rail.
Horse of the Sea (#8) comes in at 3/1 on the morning line with a solid 75.5 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate from the Brad Cox barn — that last part matters. Cox runners at Ellis Park rarely run flat, and at 3/1 this horse has every reason to be sniffing around the bottom of the exacta or better. He's the show play that could easily outrun his position in the order.
Our three free best bets today are clustered in the opening trio of races, and there's a consistent thread running through them: horses with solid TrackWiz ratings in the upper 80s sitting at fair morning-line prices. Quick to Charm (Race 1, 5/2 ML) leads the way on the dirt sprint, followed by Lexico (Race 2, 3/1 ML) stretching out to a mile, and Editor (Race 3, 5/2 ML) in the claiming sprint at 6½ furlongs.
All three carry TrackWiz ratings north of 87 — a meaningful threshold in this company — and none is being asked to do anything outside their established profile. If the early dirt is playing honest and speed is getting rewarded, the pace scenario in Race 3 especially sets up in a way that could make Editor tough to catch. Use the free picks to calibrate before you commit real money in the premium half of the card.
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Today's Ellis Park card is a solid Thursday afternoon with legitimate angles from the first race to the ninth. Quick to Charm, Lexico, and Editor anchor the free side of the card, while the turf races and allowance closers offer the most upside for subscribers hunting multi-race value. Good luck out there — and remember, full-card analysis including pace projections and exotic tickets is waiting for you at /pricing.