Daily Picks

Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 6, 2026

Monday, July 6, 20269 racesEllis Park

Ellis Park is rolling out a nine-race card on a pleasant Sunday afternoon — partly cloudy skies, 83°F, and the kind of summer Kentucky weather that keeps the turf course lively and the dirt playing honest. Conditions look favorable across both surfaces, which matters a lot on a card that splits nearly evenly between dirt and grass.

Today's card is a nice mix of conditions — you've got your maiden claimers, a pair of allowance turf routes, a starter allowance, and some straight claiming action to keep the angles flowing all afternoon. There's genuine intrigue up and down the card, and TrackWiz analysis has surfaced some interesting prices worth targeting.

Three races are free for all readers, with the rest locked behind our premium subscription. Whether you're just dipping in for a couple of plays or grinding the full card, we've got you covered.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile claiming opener where the TrackWiz ratings separate the field clearly — Argan sits well above the pack, but Miranda's Rocky's superior avg speed and 23% career win rate make this more than a one-horse race.

win5ArganML 7/2

Argan draws our top rating in this field at 86.35 — a meaningful gap over the second-best horse — and trainer Kenneth G. Miller sends him out at a 7/2 morning line that represents fair value for the top-rated contender. His 16% career win rate is modest but respectable in this company, and with Edgar Morales in the irons, he has a capable pilot to navigate a one-mile trip. The pace scenario here looks manageable, and if Argan runs to his rating ceiling, he should have too much for this field in the stretch.

place4Tiffany TwistML 4/1

Tiffany Twist earns a solid 68.32 TrackWiz rating and posts the same 15% career win rate as the favorite, making her a logical exacta partner. Gabriel Saez is a proven commodity in this region and knows how to get a horse placed even when the top prize slips away. At 4/1 on the morning line, she offers genuine each-way value in a race where the top tier is closely bunched below Argan.

show3Little DixieML 5/1

Little Dixie comes in with a 66.86 rating — just a tick below Tiffany Twist — and Tito Moreno has her primed at 5/1. Her 14% career win rate is consistent enough to suggest she hits the board at a solid clip, and Yedsit Hazlewood gives her a capable handler who knows this track. She's a natural fit in trifecta coverage at a price that could pay nicely.

Race 2

5:19 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden claiming turf affair with 16 runners and zero career wins in the field — this is pure projection handicapping, and the TrackWiz ratings identify a clear top tier while the middle of the field is bunched tightly enough to create chaos in the exotics.

win4BearisterML 9/2

Bearister is our top-rated horse in this field at 84.90 and goes postward at a fair 9/2 morning line under James Graham for trainer J. Keith Desormeaux, whose operation regularly spots horses well on the turf. The 54 avg speed figure is tied for the best among horses with recorded figures in the race, and that combination of rating edge plus Desormeaux's turf acumen makes this the most complete profile in the field. In a wide-open maiden event, having a meaningful ratings advantage is worth leaning on hard.

place6He's a CharmerML 7/2

He's a Charmer sits just behind Bearister with an 81.51 rating and is actually the morning-line favorite at 7/2, which tells you the market has a different view at the top. Trainer Ethan W. West and jockey Luan Machado form a competitive team, and matching Bearister's 53 avg speed figure while carrying a higher public profile gives him plenty of place upside. If the favorite hits the board, He's a Charmer is the most likely partner.

show15CptbobsbtwentynineML 8/1

Cptbobsbtwentynine pops off the page as a value angle here — a 73.21 rating at 8/1 is a notable disconnect, putting this horse in the same conversation as the top two despite a morning line that suggests otherwise. Edgar Morales pilots for trainer Jordan Blair, and with a 53 avg speed mark to his credit, there's enough foundation to make this a serious show contender. In a 16-horse turf maiden, getting a top-three-rated horse at 8/1 in the show spot is exactly the kind of overlay that builds exotic payouts.

Race 3

5:48 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong allowance optional claiming sprint features a genuine pace battle brewing — multiple horses with strong speed figures and high avg speed marks are pointing at the same early fractions, which could set things up beautifully for closers.

win4Banned for LifeML 5/1

Banned for Life tops our ratings at 80.55 and posts the best avg speed figure in the race at 56, matching only Sinner's Sin, Risk It, and Taylor's Version — but his TrackWiz edge separates him from that group. Trainer Steven M. Asmussen is among the most decorated conditioners in the country, and Ramon A. Vazquez gets a live mount here at a 5/1 morning line that offers genuine overlay potential. The 12% career win rate is the one caution flag, but at this class level and distance, his raw figures make him the most dangerous horse in the field.

place7Sinner's SinML 8/1

Sinner's Sin has everything you want in a place horse — a 79.79 rating, a 56 avg speed figure, and a 25% career win rate that screams consistency. Ron Moquett is a sharp trainer who knows how to place horses, and Yedsit Hazlewood has been a reliable presence at Ellis Park. The 8/1 morning line makes this feel like an underlay if anything; expect him to be shorter at post.

show3ExplorationML 4/1

Exploration brings the highest career win rate of our top three at 28% and earns a 70.11 TrackWiz rating. David Jacobson doubles up in this race, and Rafael Bejarano, the barn's choice, rides Exploration rather than stablemate Tuskegee Airmen — that's a meaningful signal. At 4/1, she offers solid show insurance while also having enough upside to factor in the exacta.

Our three complimentary picks today span the first three races and give you a solid foundation to start the afternoon. On the dirt, Argan opens the card as our top play at 7/2 morning line in the one-mile claiming opener — a price we think is fair given the rating our model has assigned. Swing over to Race 2 and the turf maiden claiming field looks like fertile ground for Bearister at 9/2, a horse we see as undervalued in a wide-open field stretching to 1 1/16 miles on the grass.

Race 3 is where the value angle really catches our eye — Banned for Life at 5/1 morning line in a six-furlong allowance optional claiming sprint. The pace scenario in this race sets up well for a closer with a strong late kick, and that 5/1 number could look very generous at post time. These three free races alone give you a clear plan for the early card.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A deep 16-horse maiden special weight sprint for fillies where no horse has an avg speed figure recorded — this is an all-projection race, and trainer and jockey pedigree become the primary handicapping levers.

win4Scarlett BegoniaML 2/1

Scarlett Begonia is our top-rated horse in the field at 58.33 and draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1, which is well-deserved given that gap over the next tier. Trainer Brad H. Cox is one of the premier conditioners in the country — his first-out fillies regularly fire fresh, and Luan Machado is a capable pilot who can place a debutante in a good striking position early. In a race with no recorded speed figures, the Cox barn's reputation for having horses ready to run gives Scarlett Begonia a significant edge that the market has rightly recognized.

place5She Ain't JokinML 9/2

She Ain't Jokin earns a 54.17 rating under Mark E. Casse, another trainer who consistently gets debut runners ready to fire. Francisco Arrieta is sharp and handles first-timers well, and the 9/2 morning line suggests the market respects this filly without overrating her — that's a comfortable place profile in a big field. Cox and Casse fillies filling the top two spots would make for a very tidy exacta.

show11Jazz QueenML 6/1

Jazz Queen at 6/1 brings a 51.67 rating and trainer Joe Sharp, who is well-regarded for developing young turf talent — though this is a dirt sprint, his overall horsemanship for debut runners translates. Axel Concepcion gets the mount and rides aggressively enough to keep a first-timer in contention through the early furlongs. In a 16-horse field, having a third horse with a legitimate trainer angle at 6/1 is smart trifecta insurance.

Race 5

6:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A 12-horse claiming turf mile where the morning-line favorite Twolatebabydoll is not our top-rated horse — TrackWiz analysis points toward two horses at double-digit odds who rate higher, which sets up a potential upset scenario worth exploring in the exotics.

win3Got GoneML 12/1

Got Gone tops our TrackWiz ratings at 73.96 despite going off at 12/1 on the morning line — that's the kind of gap that gets our attention. Trainer John Ennis and jockey Alex Achard combine for a low-profile but legitimate partnership, and Got Gone's 16% career win rate in a claiming field is respectable. His avg speed of 53 is in line with the field average, but the TrackWiz model sees something in his form cycle that the public pricing hasn't caught up to yet — that's where value lives.

place12Honor AztecaML 10/1

Honor Azteca rates second in the field at 72.52 and goes at 10/1, another overlay in a race where the morning-line favorite is ranked lower by our model. James Graham rides for J. Keith Desormeaux, a trainer who does solid work with turf horses, and Honor Azteca's 52 avg speed figure reflects a horse who saves ground and finishes. At double-digit odds in the place hole, he's a core part of our exotic plays today.

show9TwolatebabydollML 5/2

Twolatebabydoll is the morning-line second choice at 5/2 and earns a 68.20 rating — lower than both our win and place picks, but still a competitive figure that justifies a show position. Cristian A. Torres is a strong rider who can get the most out of a horse with pace, and a 12% career win rate in this company is workable. If the race unfolds conventionally and the public money lands correctly, Twolatebabydoll is likely hitting the board — but we'd rather beat her than bet her at the top.

Race 6

7:12 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

This one-mile starter allowance features two horses rated well above the rest — Thea and Angel Bella are separated from the field by a significant margin in TrackWiz ratings, setting up a compelling exacta match between the 3/1 and 5/1 morning-line options.

win5TheaML 3/1

Thea leads our ratings at 86.61 and gets the morning-line favoritism at 3/1, which is justified every way you look at it. Trainer Lindsay Schultz sends her out with Abel Cedillo up, and the combination of a 21% career win rate with that elite rating makes her the clear top pick. Her avg speed of 53 is in line with the field, suggesting she doesn't need to earn it on raw figures alone — the model projects her as a complete package at this distance.

place1Angel BellaML 5/1

Angel Bella rates a strong 84.17 — only marginally behind Thea — and carries a 20% career win rate that suggests she finishes in the money consistently. Luan Machado rides for D. Whitworth Beckman, and the 5/1 morning line represents legitimate value for a horse this close to the top of the ratings. If Thea is the win bet, Angel Bella is the automatic exacta partner.

show6GypsanML 6/1

Gypsan earns a 75.13 rating — well clear of the rest of the field once you get past the top two — and Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. is one of the best pilots on this circuit. A 22% career win rate is above average for a starter allowance field, and trainer Chris A. Hartman has her positioned well at 6/1. She's the natural choice to round out trifecta tickets in what looks like a race that the top three rated horses should control.

Race 7

7:42 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A nine-horse turf allowance at 1 1/16 miles where the morning-line favorite isn't our top-rated horse — Right to Win at 6/1 headlines the TrackWiz analysis while the 3/1 choice Two Beers by Ten slots in as the value anchor for place bettors.

win9Right to WinML 6/1

Right to Win is our top-rated horse in this field at 82.71 and heads to the gate at 6/1 — that's a meaningful disconnect between our model and the public odds that we're happy to exploit. Florent Geroux is a graded stakes-caliber jockey who handles turf routes with authority, and trainer Lauren Robson has this horse pointed correctly. A 33% career win rate is an outstanding figure, and at over 6-1, Right to Win is the best value on the entire card today.

place5Two Beers by TenML 3/1

Two Beers by Ten is the morning-line choice at 3/1 and earns a 70.50 TrackWiz rating — a legitimate contender, just not one we have on top. Danny Sheehy rides for Michael J. Maker, a trainer who excels on the turf, and the 55 avg speed figure is the best in the race. There's real upside here to beat us, which is why we're keeping him as the place anchor — if Right to Win fires, Two Beers by Ten should be right there in the runner-up spot.

show3Fountain LakeML 4/1

Fountain Lake rates 61.35 and goes at 4/1 for trainer John Alexander Ortiz, giving this horse the second-lowest morning line in the race despite being the third-rated horse in our model. Axel Concepcion is aggressive enough to get Fountain Lake into a good ground-saving trip early on the turf, and a 7% career win rate understates the horse's ability to land in the exotic spots. As a show selection, the 4/1 price and solid rating make this a trifecta cornerstone.

Race 8

8:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

The seven-furlong dirt allowance is the most top-heavy race on the card — Rebel Instinct sits atop our ratings at 88.83 with a commanding lead over the field, but Corona de Oro and a surprise show candidate at 20/1 make the trifectas worth constructing carefully.

win8Rebel InstinctML 9/5

Rebel Instinct is the best-rated horse on the entire card today at 88.83, and yet the 9/5 morning line is one of those rare cases where the chalk is also the overlay. Trainer Brad H. Cox — who also saddles Ezum in this race — clearly prefers this one, and Florent Geroux in the irons is the kind of booking that confirms the stable's intentions. A 33% career win rate paired with a 55 avg speed figure gives Rebel Instinct both the raw figures and the statistical consistency to dominate at this level.

place6Corona de OroML 7/2

Corona de Oro brings a 78.38 rating for trainer Dallas Stewart, with Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. aboard — one of the most reliable jockey-trainer combinations at this meet. The 14% career win rate is the one soft spot, but in an allowance field where the top horse is a near-lock, hitting the board at 7/2 is a very achievable outcome. Corona de Oro should be a staple in every exacta and trifecta ticket underneath Rebel Instinct.

show11QuarryML 20/1

Quarry is our show selection at 20/1 morning line — a genuine longshot angle — with a 55.36 TrackWiz rating that actually outranks several horses going off at far shorter odds. Abel Cedillo has the tactical awareness to navigate a large field and keep a horse in position, and trainer Mark Simms, Jr. has him primed at a price. In a race where the top two feel relatively secure, spicing the trifecta with Quarry at 20/1 could deliver a meaningful payout.

Race 9

8:42 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

The turf mile closer is a 13-horse maiden special weight with an intriguing split — Paseo is the clear top pick by TrackWiz ratings but goes off as the 3/1 morning-line favorite, while Marble Arch at 12/1 offers a compelling overlay in the place and exotic spots.

win9PaseoML 3/1

Paseo sits atop our ratings at 77.08 and is correctly installed as the morning-line choice at 3/1 by trainer Ian R. Wilkes — a conditioner who regularly produces sharp turf runners. Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. takes the mount, which is about as strong a jockey booking as you'll find at this meet. A 54 avg speed figure is solid for a maiden turf route, and the combination of elite rating, top jockey, and respected trainer gives Paseo the most complete case in a competitive field.

place10Marble ArchML 12/1

Marble Arch is a fascinating overlay at 12/1, earning a 63.96 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in this field — a significant gap between his rating and his morning-line odds. Trainer Robert Medina and Cristian A. Torres form an under-the-radar partnership, and a 52 avg speed figure gives him a real foundation on the turf. In a 13-horse maiden event where the favorite is well-identified, finding this kind of ratings-to-odds mismatch in the place position is exactly how you build profitable exotic tickets.

show13Determined DancerML 9/2

Determined Dancer earns a 54.17 rating at 9/2 under trainer Cherie DeVaux, who also saddles Good Conduct in this race — when a barn doubles up, it's worth noting which horse gets the higher-rated jockey booking. Axel Concepcion, who rides Determined Dancer, is a sharp turf pilot who can put a horse in a ground-saving position from the start. The 53 avg speed figure and 9/2 price make this a natural show selection for bettors looking to connect the trifecta.

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Today at Ellis Park it all comes back to a few key plays: Argan, Bearister, and Banned for Life headline the free card, while Rebel Instinct (9/5, Race 8) is the strongest-rated horse on the entire card and our anchor for multi-race tickets. Don't sleep on Got Gone at 12/1 — longshots at that price with a credible pace angle are exactly the kind of overlays that make a day at the track worthwhile. Full analysis for all nine races is available to TrackWiz subscribers — good luck and let's cash some tickets.

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