Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 5, 2026

Jack Charles (82.12 rating) deserves attention at 5/1, especially given that 25% career win rate — one of the strongest in this field. Trainer Wayne Catalano is a consistent winner at the mid-level claiming and allowance ranks, and Adam Beschizza is a reliable pilot in these spots. The rating gap between Jack Charles and the third-best horse is significant enough that he belongs in every exotic.

Historic (78.81 rating, 4/1) completes our trifecta ticket and gets the coveted rail post with Gabriel Saez up. Trainer Lane Johnston keeps his horse competitive in sprint conditions, and the 11% career win rate is boosted by consistent effort. At 4/1, Historic might even be undervalued relative to his 78.81 rating — he's a sensible anchor in the show position.

Play It Again (rating 55.0, 4/1) gives us a trainer angle worth following — Mark Casse is consistently one of the best turf trainers in North America, and Axel Concepcion is a savvy pick for a horse that may need the experience to unlock. The 56 average speed figure is tied for best in the field, which tells us there's raw ability here even in a maiden debut on grass.

Castiglione (54.17 rating, 9/2) rounds out the exotic ticket with a strong pedigree angle implied by trainer Cherie DeVaux, who places her horses thoughtfully on the turf. Brian Hernandez Jr. is as good as it gets in this region and gives the horse a legitimate confidence boost. With no speed figure on record, the intrigue is in the unknown — and at 9/2, the price reflects that mystery without being prohibitive.

Rational Theory is separated from French Blue by just 0.34 rating points (83.58 vs 83.92) and goes at a much more generous 4/1. Trainer Steven Asmussen is one of the all-time winningest conditioners, and Brian Hernandez Jr. is a proven partner in these spots. If the pace gets hot up front, a horse with Rational Theory's numbers should be closing hard in the final furlong — making him a standout value for the place.

Vicki Rose is our longshot inclusion in the show spot at 12/1, carrying a 73.96 rating that's closer to the top two than her odds suggest. Trainer Pavel Matejka has a live runner here with Luan Machado in the irons, and a 17% career win rate is respectable company. At a 12/1 morning line, any piece of the show pool or trifecta from her represents serious value if the top two have a pace-induced duel.

Daisy Flyer (81.97 rating, 4/1) is nearly as strong on paper and brings a 25% career win rate and an impressive 59 average speed figure — tied for highest in the field with Reining Flowers. Trainer George Arnold II keeps his turf runners sharp, and Axel Concepcion is a reliable hand over a mile on the grass. The half-point rating difference from Tirupati makes this a horse you want in every exacta.

Kozy Kurlin Kitten opens at 10/1 with a 76.88 rating — third-best in the field and a substantial edge over anything below her. Trainer Doug O'Neill is capable of springing a price in these spot starts, and Rafael Bejarano is a seasoned veteran who can find cover on the turf. Her 22% career win rate is excellent for a double-digit morning line horse, making her the right longshot anchor for trifectas.

Puteketeke (66.71 rating, 6/1) is a clear second on TrackWiz numbers and gets trainer Michael Maker, whose barn is consistently among the best at developing young horses. Danny Sheehy handles the riding duties on a horse whose 55 average speed figure suggests real ability. At 6/1, Puteketeke is the right horse to back for second in exactas if the favorite runs to her number.

Pursuit of Freedom (55.0 rating, 4/1) gives trainer Peter Eurton a legitimate contender with Rafael Bejarano in the saddle. The 56 average speed figure matches the top horses in this field, and Eurton is a sharp conditioner who doesn't waste entries on unprepared runners. At 4/1, this horse is a sensible show bet and a trifecta piece if the pace scenario gets complicated.

Triskelion (81.86 rating, 5/1) is our place pick and a horse with a profile that suggests he can run down tiring speed in the final furlong of a five-and-a-half-furlong turf dash. Trainer George Arnold II has a live runner, and Cristian Torres keeps the ride consistent — always a positive sign of connections' confidence. A 20% career win rate in stakes-adjacent company gives him credibility at a price that makes him mandatory in exotics.

Gigabit rounds out the ticket at 6/1 with an 80.4 rating and a remarkable 40% career win rate — the best win percentage among the contenders. Trainer Rey Hernandez fires an impressive dart here, and a 57 average speed figure matches the second tier of this field. If Beach Heist hits any traffic or gets challenged hard through the turn, Gigabit has the tactical profile to swoop late and pick up a piece.

Trust Account (67.26 rating, 5/1) gets trainer Brendan Walsh, who is among the best turf conditioners working today, and Ben Curtis is a steady hand over distance on the grass. A 20% career win rate on a horse going at 5/1 in a spread field is a value play, and the 54 average speed figure is right in the mix with the top contenders. Trust Account figures to be running hard in the final sixteenth when it matters most.

Infinite Sky (64.39 rating, 3/1) gives Brad Cox — one of the premier conditioners in the country — a second runner in the race, and Luan Machado takes over the mount. A 25% career win rate and a 55 average speed figure make this horse a legitimate contender, and the 3/1 morning line reflects market confidence. Even if she doesn't win, Infinite Sky's profile screams board finisher in a wide-open field like this.