Daily Picks

Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 5, 2026

Sunday, July 5, 20269 racesEllis Park

Happy post-holiday Sunday at Ellis Park. Nine races are on tap under partly cloudy skies with temperatures sitting around 84°F — comfortable enough for both the horses and the handicappers in the grandstand. The turf course figures to be in good shape, which matters a lot today with four of the nine races run on the grass.

The card has a little bit of everything: a stakes race on the turf sprint (Race 8), a pair of maiden special weight events, claiming races to kick things off, and a tasty allowance optional claiming turf mile that closes out the afternoon in Race 9. Plenty of angles to dig into whether you're playing a single race or building multi-race exotics through the back half of the card.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The morning-line favorite gets faded here — our top-rated horse at 4/1 presents real value against a short-priced chalk in this one-mile dirt claimer.

win1Romantic LeadML 4/1

Romantic Lead carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.62 and goes postward at a juicy 4/1 morning line. That gap between his rating and the 7/5 favorite Culprit (76.23) is meaningful over a route of ground, where superior numbers tend to play out. Trainer Felipe Nickel has him pointed at this distance, and Luan Machado gets the call — this is the kind of overlay spot handicappers love to find in the opener.

place5JinxziML 3/1

Jinxzi (80.88 rating, 3/1) slots in as our place pick and represents solid insurance. Trainer Ian R. Wilkes is a steady hand in this jurisdiction, and with Victor Carrasco up, the horse has a professional rider who can find the right spot in a one-mile trip. The rating edge over the chalk is real, making Jinxzi a cornerstone for exacta and trifecta coverage.

show4CulpritML 7/5

Culprit opens as the 7/5 favorite and carries a 76.23 rating with Rafael Bejarano in the irons — a jockey who knows how to rate a horse on the front end. His average speed figure matches Romantic Lead, and trainer David Jacobson is capable of getting horses ready to fire first time back at a distance. Even if the favorite gets beaten, this horse figures to be on or near the board.

Race 2

5:19 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A clear standout emerges in this six-furlong dirt claimer, but the second and third choices offer legitimate threats that make the exacta worth building.

win5Ship Ship HoorayML 2/1

Ship Ship Hooray (rating 88.54) is the top-rated horse in the field by a meaningful margin and posts the field's best average speed figure at 56. A 20% career win rate adds credibility, and trainer Kelsey Danner has this filly dialed in at 2/1 on the morning line. Axel Concepcion gets the mount, and in a six-furlong sprint where early speed figures matter, this looks like the horse to beat.

place6Forty LoveML 6/1

Forty Love is our value play for the place slot at 6/1 off a 76.52 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field and a notable gap above third-ranked Gallo de Fuego. Cristian Torres takes over the mount for trainer Martin Rouck, and at those odds this filly could easily outrun her price. She's the right kind of inclusion in exactas underneath the favorite.

show3Gallo de FuegoML 9/2

Gallo de Fuego (74.21 rating, 9/2) rounds out our exotics ticket and gives Gabriel Saez a live mount off a trainer in Cameron Milligan who doesn't waste entries. Her 14% career win rate is respectable in this spot, and she matches the field's top average speed figure at 55. She's the logical third wheel in your trifectas.

Race 3

5:48 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Wide-open five-and-a-half-furlong sprint with the morning-line favorite carrying one of the lower ratings in the field — pace could be contested early and set up for closers.

win2Army WildcatterML 7/2

Army Wildcatter earns our top pick with the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 86.35 and a 14% career win rate that backs up his form cycle. Trainer John Ennis sends him out at a very playable 7/2, and with Alex Achard in the irons, there's a strong jockey-trainer partnership to lean on. In a sprint where several horses could mix it up early, Wildcatter's numbers suggest he's the one with the most upside when the pace collapses.

place6Jack CharlesML 5/1

Jack Charles (82.12 rating) deserves attention at 5/1, especially given that 25% career win rate — one of the strongest in this field. Trainer Wayne Catalano is a consistent winner at the mid-level claiming and allowance ranks, and Adam Beschizza is a reliable pilot in these spots. The rating gap between Jack Charles and the third-best horse is significant enough that he belongs in every exotic.

show1HistoricML 4/1

Historic (78.81 rating, 4/1) completes our trifecta ticket and gets the coveted rail post with Gabriel Saez up. Trainer Lane Johnston keeps his horse competitive in sprint conditions, and the 11% career win rate is boosted by consistent effort. At 4/1, Historic might even be undervalued relative to his 78.81 rating — he's a sensible anchor in the show position.

Our three free races today are all on the dirt, and the early read from TrackWiz analysis is that early pace could be at a premium on the main track this afternoon. Romantic Lead (4/1 morning line) draws our eye in Race 1 going a flat mile — the extra distance should suit a presser that can stalk and pounce. In the six-furlong Race 2, Ship Ship Hooray comes in as the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating, the highest of the free bunch. Army Wildcatter rounds out the free card in Race 3 at 7/2, a five-and-a-half furlong sprint where we like the pace setup.

All three free picks share a common thread: they project to run near or on the lead without being asked to go wire-to-wire from the gate. On a warm summer afternoon at Ellis, that kind of tactical speed can be the difference between a winner's circle photo and a near-miss.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A massive field of first-time turf starters and lightly raced maidens makes this mile on the grass a genuine puzzle — pedigree and trainer patterns loom large when form is thin.

win7Bardstown RoadML 5/2

Bardstown Road tops our board at 5/2 with a 57.5 rating — highest in the field — and draws the services of Florent Geroux, one of the circuit's most accomplished turf riders. Trainer Kenneth McPeek has a well-earned reputation for pointing grass-bred maidens correctly, and at a middle distance of one mile, McPeek horses often improve significantly from debut. The morning line reflects market respect, and the TrackWiz rating confirms it.

place11Play It AgainML 4/1

Play It Again (rating 55.0, 4/1) gives us a trainer angle worth following — Mark Casse is consistently one of the best turf trainers in North America, and Axel Concepcion is a savvy pick for a horse that may need the experience to unlock. The 56 average speed figure is tied for best in the field, which tells us there's raw ability here even in a maiden debut on grass.

show3CastiglioneML 9/2

Castiglione (54.17 rating, 9/2) rounds out the exotic ticket with a strong pedigree angle implied by trainer Cherie DeVaux, who places her horses thoughtfully on the turf. Brian Hernandez Jr. is as good as it gets in this region and gives the horse a legitimate confidence boost. With no speed figure on record, the intrigue is in the unknown — and at 9/2, the price reflects that mystery without being prohibitive.

Race 5

6:44 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses separated by less than half a rating point at the top of the field set up a fascinating allowance showdown over six furlongs — the chalk is beatable if the pace scenario sets up right.

win6French BlueML 9/5

French Blue edges out our top spot with a 83.92 rating and gets the Baffert-Geroux combination, one of the most potent trainer-jockey partnerships in American racing. She opens at 9/5 on the morning line, and while that's not a generous price, her 16% career win rate and 54 average speed figure are solid for this level. In a six-furlong sprint where tactical speed matters, Geroux knows how to place a horse in the right position to pounce.

place1Rational TheoryML 4/1

Rational Theory is separated from French Blue by just 0.34 rating points (83.58 vs 83.92) and goes at a much more generous 4/1. Trainer Steven Asmussen is one of the all-time winningest conditioners, and Brian Hernandez Jr. is a proven partner in these spots. If the pace gets hot up front, a horse with Rational Theory's numbers should be closing hard in the final furlong — making him a standout value for the place.

show5Vicki RoseML 12/1

Vicki Rose is our longshot inclusion in the show spot at 12/1, carrying a 73.96 rating that's closer to the top two than her odds suggest. Trainer Pavel Matejka has a live runner here with Luan Machado in the irons, and a 17% career win rate is respectable company. At a 12/1 morning line, any piece of the show pool or trifecta from her represents serious value if the top two have a pace-induced duel.

Race 6

7:12 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Legitimate depth in this one-mile allowance optional claiming on the turf — the top of the field is tightly bunched in ratings with a pair of solid closers and a sneaky double-digit longshot lurking.

win6TirupatiML 5/2

Tirupati tops the field with an 83.04 TrackWiz rating and a standout 26% career win rate — one of the highest in the field. Trainer Jonathan Thomas places his horses with precision, and Umberto Rispoli is an elite turf pilot who excels at tracking pace and timing his run over a mile. With the best rating and the best win percentage among the contenders, Tirupati is the horse to beat at 5/2.

place8Daisy FlyerML 4/1

Daisy Flyer (81.97 rating, 4/1) is nearly as strong on paper and brings a 25% career win rate and an impressive 59 average speed figure — tied for highest in the field with Reining Flowers. Trainer George Arnold II keeps his turf runners sharp, and Axel Concepcion is a reliable hand over a mile on the grass. The half-point rating difference from Tirupati makes this a horse you want in every exacta.

show7Kozy Kurlin KittenML 10/1

Kozy Kurlin Kitten opens at 10/1 with a 76.88 rating — third-best in the field and a substantial edge over anything below her. Trainer Doug O'Neill is capable of springing a price in these spot starts, and Rafael Bejarano is a seasoned veteran who can find cover on the turf. Her 22% career win rate is excellent for a double-digit morning line horse, making her the right longshot anchor for trifectas.

Race 7

7:42 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

One horse towers over this maiden special weight field on the TrackWiz ratings — the question is whether the rest of the field can make a race of it behind the heavy favorite.

win8Embry ShowML 2/1

Embry Show (88.54 rating) is the standout in this maiden sprint by a wide margin, and the Baffert-Geroux combination at 2/1 signals a horse pointed to fire first time out. That 56 average speed figure is tied for the field's best, and in maiden sprints, early speed figures from works and prior efforts carry real predictive weight. When Baffert brings a debut runner at 2/1 with Geroux up, the market is usually speaking a language worth listening to.

place2PuteketekeML 6/1

Puteketeke (66.71 rating, 6/1) is a clear second on TrackWiz numbers and gets trainer Michael Maker, whose barn is consistently among the best at developing young horses. Danny Sheehy handles the riding duties on a horse whose 55 average speed figure suggests real ability. At 6/1, Puteketeke is the right horse to back for second in exactas if the favorite runs to her number.

show4Pursuit of FreedomML 4/1

Pursuit of Freedom (55.0 rating, 4/1) gives trainer Peter Eurton a legitimate contender with Rafael Bejarano in the saddle. The 56 average speed figure matches the top horses in this field, and Eurton is a sharp conditioner who doesn't waste entries on unprepared runners. At 4/1, this horse is a sensible show bet and a trifecta piece if the pace scenario gets complicated.

Race 8

8:12 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Stakes company on the Ellis turf course at five and a half furlongs — a heavy favorite sits atop the morning line, but two live runners in the mid-price range offer real exacta and trifecta value.

win1Beach HeistML 7/5

Beach Heist is the class of this field with a 89.42 TrackWiz rating — best on the card today — and opens as the 7/5 chalk with a gaudy 33% career win rate. Trainer William Walden has this horse in peak condition, and Axel Concepcion gets the assignment in what figures to be a pace-pressuring role on the front end. The 58 average speed figure is the highest in the field by a full point, and in stakes company on turf, that kind of raw speed advantage rarely lies.

place8TriskelionML 5/1

Triskelion (81.86 rating, 5/1) is our place pick and a horse with a profile that suggests he can run down tiring speed in the final furlong of a five-and-a-half-furlong turf dash. Trainer George Arnold II has a live runner, and Cristian Torres keeps the ride consistent — always a positive sign of connections' confidence. A 20% career win rate in stakes-adjacent company gives him credibility at a price that makes him mandatory in exotics.

show3GigabitML 6/1

Gigabit rounds out the ticket at 6/1 with an 80.4 rating and a remarkable 40% career win rate — the best win percentage among the contenders. Trainer Rey Hernandez fires an impressive dart here, and a 57 average speed figure matches the second tier of this field. If Beach Heist hits any traffic or gets challenged hard through the turn, Gigabit has the tactical profile to swoop late and pick up a piece.

Race 9

8:42 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A sprawling twelve-horse allowance optional claiming field on the turf at a mile and a sixteenth — our top pick comes from mid-pack at 10/1, making this a race built for trifecta and superfecta players.

win11Call the BullpenML 10/1

Call the Bullpen tops our board with a 76.88 TrackWiz rating and opens at 10/1 — a price that doesn't match the number at all. Trainer Carlos David has a history of pointing turf routers correctly, and Jaime Torres picks up the mount on a horse with a 20% career win rate and a 55 average speed figure. At a mile and a sixteenth, late closers with strong ratings consistently outperform their odds, and Call the Bullpen fits that mold perfectly.

place8Trust AccountML 5/1

Trust Account (67.26 rating, 5/1) gets trainer Brendan Walsh, who is among the best turf conditioners working today, and Ben Curtis is a steady hand over distance on the grass. A 20% career win rate on a horse going at 5/1 in a spread field is a value play, and the 54 average speed figure is right in the mix with the top contenders. Trust Account figures to be running hard in the final sixteenth when it matters most.

show6Infinite SkyML 3/1

Infinite Sky (64.39 rating, 3/1) gives Brad Cox — one of the premier conditioners in the country — a second runner in the race, and Luan Machado takes over the mount. A 25% career win rate and a 55 average speed figure make this horse a legitimate contender, and the 3/1 morning line reflects market confidence. Even if she doesn't win, Infinite Sky's profile screams board finisher in a wide-open field like this.

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Bottom line: Beach Heist is the marquee play of the day in Race 8, Ship Ship Hooray is the strongest free-card number with that 88.54 rating, and Call the Bullpen at 10/1 in the finale is the kind of longshot angle that makes the last race worth staying for. Unlock the full nine-race breakdown — including exotic ticket recommendations and pace projections — with a TrackWiz subscription at /pricing. Good luck out there today.

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