Daily Picks

Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 4, 2026

Saturday, July 4, 20269 racesEllis Park

Happy Fourth of July from Ellis Park, where the fireworks tonight won't be the only explosions worth watching. Nine races are on tap under clear blue skies with temperatures sitting at a warm 87°F — the kind of summer afternoon that rewards speed on the front end and puts a premium on horses who can handle the heat down the lane.

The card is a genuine mixed bag: six furlongs sprint battles dominate the early going, but the turf comes alive in the back half with a pair of allowance routes and a stakes race that looks like the marquee event of the afternoon. Whether you're here to cash a ticket on the opener or build a multi-race sequence into the late card, today has something for every level of bettor.

TrackWiz has broken down all nine races. The first three are on us — free analysis, no strings attached. The final six, including the stakes, are available to subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint where the TrackWiz ratings spread is massive — the top-rated filly stands nearly 20 points clear of the field, but at 4/1 morning line there's still real wagering value on the board.

win2Annie BeeML 4/1

Annie Bee comes in with a TrackWiz rating of 83.23, which is a full 19 points ahead of the next closest rival in this maiden special weight — that kind of gap in a maiden field is significant. Adam Beschizza gets the call for trainer Matt A. Shirer, and at 4/1 on the morning line, she's not being blindly bet down, which means the market respects the competition. Her average speed figure of 54 is solid for this company, and in a race where several rivals show modest or unproven numbers, she looks like the clear class of the field. This is our top selection in the opener.

place4Lindy CanML 8/1

Lindy Can at 8/1 is the sneaky value play in this spot — her TrackWiz rating of 63.52 ranks her fourth in the field but she's sitting at one of the longest prices among the upper tier. Edgar Morales is an experienced hand who can navigate a maiden sprint, and trainer Dana Hancock knows how to spot a horse to fire on debut. If she gets any pace help early, she's live to sneak into the exotics at a generous price.

show6She's Our TenML 3/1

She's Our Ten opens as one of the co-favorites at 3/1 behind Parisinthespring, and trainer Peter Eurton has a long track record of sending well-prepared maidens to the gate. Her TrackWiz rating of 60.75 places her squarely in the middle of the upper group, and with Rafael Bejarano in the irons, the tactical riding is there. She's a solid show inclusion in trifectas, especially if Annie Bee leads this field wire to wire.

Race 2

5:19 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite Gee No Hollander at 7/5 faces a legitimate threat from Lord Majesty at 2/1, setting up what could be a pace duel between two of the top-rated horses — the rest of the field is a big step behind.

win2Lord MajestyML 2/1

Lord Majesty tops our TrackWiz ratings at 88.54, a full seven points clear of Gee No Hollander, and that edge is meaningful in a six-furlong starter optional claiming race. Trainer Cameron Milligan has him at a 25% career win rate, which is a respectable strike rate at this level, and Francisco Arrieta gets the mount. At 2/1 on the morning line, he's not cheap, but the rating gap justifies making him the win selection — he's simply the most accomplished horse in here on paper.

place6Gee No HollanderML 7/5

Gee No Hollander is the public's choice at 7/5, and a TrackWiz rating of 81.27 backs up that confidence — he's clearly in the top tier of this field. Trainer Kinnon LaRose sends him out with Axel Concepcion up, and his 20% career win mark is consistent. Even if Lord Majesty is the better horse on ratings, Gee No Hollander has enough ability to hit the board, and he's probably the best exacta partner at a shorter price.

show1Imperial RulerML 6/1

Imperial Ruler at 6/1 is worth a show ticket as a value hedge. His TrackWiz rating of 71.99 makes him the clear third-best horse in this field, and there's a real gap between him and the rest of the bottom half. Edgar Morales navigates him for trainer Ismael Bahena, and in a race where the top two could burn each other up, Imperial Ruler has the profile of a horse that picks up the pieces.

Race 3

5:48 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Pelican Bay enters this maiden claimer as a heavy TrackWiz favorite despite being the morning-line second choice, while Silver Sniper lurks as an interesting price play — the Asmussen barn adds intrigue with two entries.

win5Pelican BayML 3/1

Pelican Bay is the standout in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — that's the kind of top-line number that separates a horse from a maiden claiming field. Ben Curtis takes the mount for trainer Kinnon LaRose, and while her average speed figure of 52 is modest, the overall profile and rating suggest she's simply in better shape than these rivals. At 3/1 on the morning line, she's accessible as the win selection, and the rating edge here is too large to overlook.

place8Silver SniperML 5/1

Silver Sniper at 5/1 is the place pick and arguably a value play for exotics — her TrackWiz rating of 78.77 puts her solidly in second in this field, and Francisco Arrieta is one of the better jockeys on the Ellis circuit. She shares a modest speed figure with Pelican Bay at 52, but the overall TrackWiz metric suggests more upside, and trainer Eric N. Foster is worth tracking. If Pelican Bay stumbles or gets caught in traffic, Silver Sniper should be right there.

show6BienvilleML 9/2

Bienville at 9/2 fills out the show spot with a TrackWiz rating of 60.3 that places her clearly in the top half of this eight-horse field. Ramon A. Vazquez rides for the Asmussen barn, which always commands attention — Asmussen's operation is known for placing horses in spots where they can succeed, and having two entries in this race suggests some confidence in the conditions. She's a natural trifecta fill.

Our free coverage kicks off with three straight six-furlong dirt sprints, and the pace scenario connecting all of them is worth noting early. On a warm, dry day like this, the Ellis Park main track figures to play fast and true — good news for horses with early speed who can clear the field and dictate their own terms. Annie Bee (Race 1, morning line 4/1) draws our top rating among the maidens and looks like a fair-priced play to get her career started on the right foot. Lord Majesty (Race 2, ML 2/1) is the highest-rated pick of the free trio at 88.54 and comes in as the morning-line favorite for good reason in the Starter Optional Claiming — this one sets up as a potential bridge race for your early multi. Pelican Bay (Race 3, ML 3/1) rounds out the free card in the Maiden Claiming and carries an 87.08 TrackWiz rating that suggests he belongs near the top of this field.

Three sprints, three strong opinions. The common thread: front-running or pace-pressing types figure to have a structural edge today. Keep that bias in mind as you work deeper into the card.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

An eleven-horse maiden turf mile with a crowded field of first-time and lightly-raced turf runners — the pace is unpredictable, the form is thin across the board, and a wide post draw could scramble the outcome.

win1SmokeML 7/2

Smoke tops our win selections with a TrackWiz rating of 58.46 and draws the rail for trainer Brendan P. Walsh, one of the sharper outfits when it comes to debuting turf horses. Danny Sheehy handles the riding duties, and Smoke's average speed figure of 55 is the best among horses in this field that have a recorded number. In a wide-open maiden turf field, the Walsh barn's patience and preparation typically shows up, and the 7/2 morning line offers a fair price on what looks like the most complete résumé here.

place6Ohana LuluML 5/2

Ohana Lulu at 5/2 is the morning-line favorite and holds a TrackWiz rating of 57.5 — just a tick behind Smoke but with an average speed figure of 56, the best recorded mark in the field. Ben Curtis rides for trainer Brendan P. Walsh, giving Walsh two live shots in the same race, which is a pattern worth noting. She's a natural place pick, especially if the Walsh barn has had a good look at both horses and sent them both with intent.

show5Starry FlightML 4/1

Starry Flight at 4/1 rounds out our show selection with a TrackWiz rating of 55 and the services of Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. for trainer Ian R. Wilkes. No recorded speed figure is on file, suggesting this is a first or very lightly raced turf runner, which can cut both ways — but Wilkes tends to be patient and deliberate with his turf horses, which means this one could be more ready than the form indicates. A solid trifecta inclusion at a price.

Race 5

6:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite Eye Witness at 2/1 gets challenged by a value standout in Baladine, whose TrackWiz rating leads the field despite sitting at 8/1 — this is a pace-honest claimer where the best price might be the best horse.

win4BaladineML 8/1

Baladine is our top TrackWiz-rated horse in this claiming field at 79.79, and yet the morning line has her sitting at 8/1 — that kind of disconnect between rating and price is exactly the spot TrackWiz analysis loves to find. Francisco Arrieta gets the call for trainer Hutch Holsapple, and while her 8% career win rate is low, the overall profile and speed figure of 55 suggest she's been running against tougher. This is a value play with legitimate win potential, not just a trifecta filler.

place5Eye WitnessML 2/1

Eye Witness at 2/1 is the morning-line choice and she comes in with the highest career win rate in the field at 18% — that consistency matters in a claiming race where reliability is currency. Trainer J. Kent Sweezey puts Jaime A. Torres in the saddle, and her TrackWiz rating of 70.28 confirms she belongs near the top. Even at a short price, she's the natural place bet for conservative players who want to stay on the right side of the chalk.

show6Martini BluML 6/1

Martini Blu at 6/1 is a solid show selection with a TrackWiz rating of 67.71 and a 15% career win mark that puts her in the middle of the pack on consistency. Trainer Ron Moquett sends her out with Yedsit Hazlewood, and the 6/1 price makes her an attractive trifecta piece if the top two hold up. Her speed figure of 54 is right in line with the field, meaning she's not out of her depth.

Race 6

7:12 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The Brad Cox barn fires with a double-barreled attack on this allowance optional claiming turf route, but Doctrine and Zakinthos from Lynch's barn make this a genuine three-horse battle at the top — the rest of the field is playing catch-up.

win1DoctrineML 6/1

Doctrine leads our TrackWiz ratings for this race at 82.71 and comes in with a 25% career win rate — the kind of consistency you want backing a win selection in an allowance field. Florent Geroux rides for Brad H. Cox, and that combination carries weight at any track. At 6/1 on the morning line, the market is giving you a fair price on the top-rated horse, which doesn't always happen in competitive allowance turf events — this is a genuine value overlay.

place4ZakinthosML 7/2

Zakinthos at 7/2 is the second-highest rated horse in this field at 78.91 and brings a 20% career win rate into the equation. Trainer Brian A. Lynch puts Rafael Bejarano up, a pairing that has shown up in big spots before. He's a natural place pick who has the tactical versatility to run his race at 1 1/16 miles on turf, and if the Cox horses set up the pace early, Zakinthos could be right there to swoop in.

show9PreppedML 9/2

Prepped at 9/2 rounds out the show spot with a TrackWiz rating of 77.45 and a 20% career win rate — she's right in the conversation at the top of this field. Axel Concepcion rides for trainer Cherie DeVaux, and the 9/2 morning line makes her one of the shorter-priced show selections on today's card. She's a natural trifecta inclusion and wouldn't surprise anyone if she ran down Zakinthos late in a pace-honest turf route.

Race 7

7:42 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A first-out maiden sprint on dirt where nearly the entire field is making their debut with no speed figures on record — trainer connections and morning-line positioning become outsized factors in handicapping this one.

win5AntivenomML 2/1

Antivenom at 2/1 is the morning-line choice and our win pick, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 58.33 that leads this debut-heavy field. Francisco Arrieta handles the riding for Mark E. Casse, and Casse is one of the most respected trainers in North America when it comes to preparing first-time starters — his operation doesn't waste money putting horses in spots they're not ready for. With no speed figures available across most of this field, trainer reputation and rating edge are what you're leaning on, and Antivenom checks both boxes.

place4TanchoML 7/2

Tancho at 7/2 sits just below Antivenom in our ratings at 55.83 and is trained by Wesley A. Ward, who has an outstanding reputation developing young horses for first-out sprints. Yedsit Hazlewood gets the mount, and the 7/2 price makes Tancho the natural place selection — he's well within striking distance of the top pick on ratings. In a field of firsters, Ward's horses typically show up ready, which makes Tancho a reliable trifecta anchor.

show9SubjugationML 4/1

Subjugation at 4/1 fills the show spot with a TrackWiz rating of 55 — matching Tancho almost exactly — and gets the Asmussen barn treatment with Ramon A. Vazquez up. Asmussen's strike rate with debut runners is well-documented, and putting Vazquez on a maiden at 4/1 suggests genuine confidence from the connections. At that price, including Subjugation in trifectas is easy to justify.

Race 8

8:12 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A turf sprint stakes on Independence Day with two legitimate stars at the top — Trouble Calling's 88.54 TrackWiz rating is elite for this level, but Two Seven O at 9/2 brings a jaw-dropping 66% career win rate that demands attention.

win5Trouble CallingML 2/1

Trouble Calling is simply the class of this stakes field on TrackWiz ratings at 88.54, a mark that's comfortably ahead of anyone else in the race. Ben Curtis rides for trainer Gregory D. Foley, and Trouble Calling's 37% career win rate is excellent for a horse running in stakes company. At 2/1 on the morning line, she's not a bargain, but when a horse leads the field by this wide a margin in the ratings and shows elite consistency, you back her to win — it's that straightforward.

place7Two Seven OML 9/2

Two Seven O at 9/2 is the most intriguing horse on today's entire card — a 66% career win rate is exceptional by any measure, and that profile screams horse who belongs in this caliber of competition. Francisco Arrieta takes the mount for trainer David Fawkes, and the TrackWiz rating of 76.92 backs up the record. The 9/2 price might not last long once the sharp money gets involved, and he's a natural place pick who could easily run down Trouble Calling if the pace sets up right.

show6Spun D M CML 5/1

Spun D M C at 5/1 brings a 50% career win rate into this stakes sprint and a TrackWiz rating of 71.64 that makes him the third-best horse on paper. Martin Garcia has the mount for Randy L. Morse, and the 5/1 morning line gives you a bit of price on a horse who has clearly been competitive at this level. In a turf sprint stakes where pace can scramble the order late, Spun D M C's consistency makes him a solid trifecta show horse.

Race 9

8:42 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A sprawling 13-horse allowance optional claiming turf route that's as deep as it gets at Ellis Park — Sumood's TrackWiz rating stands out clearly at the top, but So Sandy and Skyro offer genuine mid-price alternatives in a complex race.

win2SumoodML 5/1

Sumood leads our TrackWiz ratings in this large field at 84.17 and carries a 25% career win rate — elite numbers for a turf route this competitive. Ben Curtis gets the mount for trainer Brendan P. Walsh, and it's the second time today Walsh deploys Curtis in a key spot, which speaks to their confidence in the horse. At 5/1 morning line in a 13-horse field, Sumood offers real value — that's a price you'd expect on a horse rated well below her, not one who's the class of the field on paper.

place11So SandyML 4/1

So Sandy at 4/1 is our place pick and comes in with a TrackWiz rating of 61.29 and a 22% career win rate that shows she consistently runs in the mix. Axel Concepcion handles the mount for trainer Cherie DeVaux, who also runs Prepped earlier on the card — a barn firing on multiple cylinders. In a 13-horse turf route where pace can get complicated in the first turn, So Sandy's experience and rating make her a comfortable place selection.

show4SkyroML 6/1

Skyro at 6/1 rounds out the show spot with a TrackWiz rating of 59.75 and a 21% career win rate that demonstrates he's a genuine competitor at this level. James Graham rides for trainer Chris A. Hartman, and in a race this large, having a horse who can settle in mid-pack and make one steady run on the turf is invaluable. The 6/1 price makes him an attractive trifecta piece in what figures to be a complex result.

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Today's best bets start with Lord Majesty in Race 2 and Pelican Bay in Race 3 — two high-rated plays in the free card that could kick off a profitable Independence Day afternoon. For the full picture, including Trouble Calling in the stakes and our multi-race wager strategy, subscribers have everything they need waiting inside. Good luck at the windows, and enjoy the card.

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