Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 3, 2026

Damascus Steel (1) brings serious credentials with a 40% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 81.73, second-best in the field. Trainer Destin Heath has this one cranked up, and Ben Curtis is a proven commodity in these conditions. At 5/1 on the morning line, there's real value in connecting Damascus Steel underneath in exactas.

Horse of the Sea (8) comes out of Brad Cox's barn — one of the premier operations in the country — and carries a 25% career win rate with a rating of 77.94. Cox runners are always live, especially at 3/1 morning line odds, and Jaime Torres is a capable pilot. This horse rounds out the trifecta ticket as a solid third option with legitimate trainer pedigree behind it.

Maple Ridge (8) is another Asmussen runner — the trainer who also saddles Sheza Go Getter in this race — and rates second overall at 55.00 with a 4/1 morning line that offers fair value. Asmussen's operation consistently produces sharp debut runners, and Ramon Vazquez gives Maple Ridge a quality pilot. The dual Asmussen presence in the race also creates interesting pace management possibilities.

Speak for Yourself (2) checks in at 54.17 on the TrackWiz scale — just a whisker behind Maple Ridge — and trainer John Servis has a long track record of producing ready debut runners. Jockey Jaime Torres is a solid partner in maiden company, and the 9/2 morning line means there's real overlay potential if the top two disappoint. A live show play for exotic construction.

Provider (5) is a strong second in our ratings at 81.15 and comes out of Peter Eurton's barn — a trainer with a sharp eye for placing horses on turf. Rafael Bejarano, a veteran with extensive grass experience, is aboard at 4/1 on the morning line, making this a horse you want underneath in exactas. The tight rating gap between Provider and Swerve suggests a genuine pace battle could develop between the two.

Clark's Corner (2) is the longshot angle hiding in plain sight — rated 58.41 by TrackWiz, which is actually the third-highest in the field despite a 15/1 morning line that screams overlay. Trainer Ian Wilkes has quietly put together a competitive book of business at Ellis Park, and Francisco Arrieta gives this one a live chance at a huge price. Toss Clark's Corner into your trifectas and let it run.

Implied Open (9) rates at 55.00 — just a half-point below Talleyrand — and comes to the gate at 4/1 with trainer William Walden giving this one a spot to fire. Axel Concepcion handles the riding duties, and in a field this deep, the second-best rated horse at fair odds is exactly the type you want underneath in exactas. Don't overthink it at that price.

Tactical Tune (11) checks in at 54.17 on the TrackWiz scale — third-best in the field — and Francisco Arrieta gets the mount for trainer Norm Casse, whose family name carries serious credibility in North American racing. At 9/2, this is good value in a field where the top three in our ratings are closely bunched. A trifecta inclusion with upside.

Icona (5) is the morning-line favorite at 3/1 and for good reason — a 33% career win rate is elite for this level, and trainer Brendan Walsh rarely sends out a horse unprepared for the task. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. aboard only strengthens the case. Our TrackWiz rating of 79.42 puts Icona just behind La Cantera, making this a logical place bet with a horse that closes races out consistently.

No Other Like You (8) comes in at 8/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 69.87 — third in the field — and trainer David Fawkes has this one pointed at a mile on turf that suits an 18% career win rate. Ben Curtis aboard is a rider who consistently gets horses into good positions on grass. At those odds, No Other Like You is worth threading into trifectas as a legitimate third player.

Bet the Gray (5) is the value bomb of this card — a 10/1 morning-line horse carrying a TrackWiz rating of 70.00, which is second-best in the field and notably ahead of the 2/1 favorite Twirling Aces. Trainer Matt Williams sneaks a live runner in here at a price the public hasn't caught up to yet, and Francisco Arrieta gets a horse that should find a clean trip from the five hole. At 10/1, Bet the Gray is a strong exacta and trifecta inclusion — potentially the best value on the card.

Kayla's Komet (8) is another price play at 15/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 60.83 — placing this one ahead of several shorter-priced competitors. Gabriel Saez takes the mount for trainer Bret Calhoun, who has a strong win rate in allowance company, and an average speed figure of 56 actually leads the field on raw numbers. At 15/1, Kayla's Komet is a genuine show-bet overlay and a worthy trifecta piece.

Abbi Fede (2) is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 for trainer Joe Sharp — a trainer known for placing horses in spots where they can succeed — and Ben Curtis brings a steady hand on the grass. The TrackWiz rating of 79.57 confirms Abbi Fede as a legitimate contender, even if Snare grades out ahead. A 7% career win rate reminds you this horse runs into trouble at times, making place the safer play.

Michael's Cove (6) brings a compelling 25% career win rate into this starter allowance turf mile — one of the stronger records in the field — and a TrackWiz rating of 62.62 that slots in comfortably as the third-best horse on our board. Trainer Troy Newton has Michael's Cove ready to factor, and Edgar Morales takes the mount with a 5/1 morning line that looks like value in the exotics. A solid anchor for trifectas.