Daily Picks

Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 2, 2026

Thursday, July 2, 20269 racesEllis Park

It's a scorcher at Ellis Park today — clear skies and a flat 90°F on the thermometer as they load the gates for a 9-race Thursday card. Heat like this can be a real factor, especially in the longer dirt routes where horses who press the pace early may find the stretch wall comes up fast. Keep that in mind as the day goes on.

The card has a little bit of everything: maiden specials, claiming races, allowance tests, and a pair of turf miles that should draw some grass-loving types out of the woodwork. Our TrackWiz ratings cover the full card, and there's genuine intrigue spread across all nine races — from wide-open maiden fields to a couple of spots where the numbers point pretty firmly in one direction.

Three races are free for all TrackWiz readers today, with full premium analysis on the remaining six available to subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile dirt claimer where the morning-line favorite looks vulnerable and a mid-price contender holds a clear edge in TrackWiz ratings — this one sets up as a potential upset card.

win5ArganML 7/2

Argan tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35, a meaningful gap above the rest of this field. The Kenneth G. Miller trainee carries a 16% career win rate and matches the field on raw speed at 53, but it's the overall profile that separates this horse at 7/2 — that's fair value for the top-rated runner. Edgar Morales takes the mount and should have options from the gate in a field that doesn't scream early speed dominance.

place4Tiffany TwistML 4/1

Tiffany Twist (4) slots in second on our ratings at 75.24 and brings a 15% career win rate that mirrors the top pick. Gabriel Saez is a reliable hand and at 4/1 on the morning line, this filly has the profile to hit the board even if Argan runs her down late.

show3Little DixieML 5/1

Little Dixie (3) is the most interesting of the three picks, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 64.26 — a noticeable step below the top two but ahead of the morning-line favorite Big Dig. Trainer Tito Moreno's runner comes in at 5/1, offering legitimate show-ticket value in what could be a messy finish behind the top two.

Race 2

5:19 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A wide-open 16-horse maiden claimer on the turf with zero career winners in the field — first-time starters and lightly raced maidens everywhere you look, making this a handicapper's puzzle.

win4BearisterML 9/2

Bearister (4) is the standout on TrackWiz ratings at 84.90 in a very competitive maiden field, and trainer J. Keith Desormeaux is a name worth following on the grass. James Graham takes the ride, and at 9/2 on the morning line, this horse offers the best combination of rating and reasonable price. The 54 average speed figure also ties for the field's best, suggesting there's some legitimate form underneath the maiden tag.

place6He's a CharmerML 7/2

He's a Charmer (6) sits just behind Bearister with a strong 80.82 TrackWiz rating and comes in at an accessible 7/2 on the morning line. Trainer Ethan W. West gives this one a shot with Luan Machado up, and in a race this deep with maiden claimers, a second-best rating is plenty enough to justify a place ticket.

show10Both Sides of BadML 4/1

Both Sides of Bad (10) checks in third on our ratings at 72.47 and is trained by the well-regarded Joe Sharp, who knows how to place horses on the turf. Jaime A. Torres gets the call, and at 4/1, this runner is worth weaving into any trifecta or exacta combination as a reliable bottom half of a ticket.

Race 3

5:48 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong dirt allowance optional claimer featuring a pace-friendly setup and two Steven Asmussen runners that could split the field — the shape of this race is genuinely interesting.

win4Banned for LifeML 5/1

Banned for Life (4) leads the field with an 80.55 TrackWiz rating and the highest average speed figure in the race at 56 — a number that jumps off the page when you scan the card. Ramon A. Vazquez takes the mount for trainer Steven M. Asmussen, who always shows up at Ellis with live horses. The 5/1 morning line feels generous for a horse this well-profiled, making this a legitimate best-bet candidate.

place7Sinner's SinML 8/1

Sinner's Sin (7) is the value angle here at 8/1 on the morning line — a 79.79 rating that trails Banned for Life by barely a point. Trainer Ron Moquett sends this one out with Yedsit Hazlewood, and a 25% career win rate gives this horse a real résumé to lean on. If the pace scenario turns hot up front, a closer with this profile could be sitting on a big number.

show5Tap Me a SongML 3/1

Tap Me a Song (5) is the morning-line favorite at 3/1 and brings a 21% career win rate to the table, but our ratings suggest this one is slightly overvalued at the price. Still, a 70.53 rating and Gabriel Saez in the irons is enough to justify a show ticket — and in trifectas this horse is a natural key underneath the top two.

Our three free best bet races today span both surfaces and conditions, and there's a common thread running through them: pace scenario matters enormously on a hot afternoon like this one. In Race 1, Argan draws our top rating at 86.35 and opens at a workable 7/2 morning line — a solid spot in a dirt claiming mile. On the turf, Bearister headlines Race 2 at 9/2 in a maiden claiming route, a price that looks generous given the TrackWiz profile. And in Race 3, Banned for Life catches our eye at 5/1 in a six-furlong allowance optional claiming sprint — that morning line price in a dirt dash is the kind of overlay that gets our attention.

The Ellis Park turf course should be playing well under these dry, sunny conditions — firm footing tends to favor closers with strong late kick in the longer routes, while the dirt has been known to show a slight speed bias when the track dries out in summer heat. Worth watching how the first couple of races play out before committing heavily to either profile.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A deep 16-horse maiden special weight sprint on dirt where no horse has ever broken their maiden — first-out runners from blue-chip barns dominate the market and the ratings.

win4Scarlett BegoniaML 2/1

Scarlett Begonia (4) is the clear public choice at 2/1 and leads our ratings at 58.33 in a field where no one has a speed figure to defend. Brad H. Cox is one of the most successful maiden trainers in the country, and Luan Machado provides a reliable pilot. In a race this wide open on form, leaning into the top trainer-jockey combo at the top of our ratings is the straightforward play.

place5She Ain't JokinML 9/2

She Ain't Jokin (5) is trained by Mark E. Casse, another barn that hits at a high clip with first-time starters, and comes in at 9/2 on the morning line. A TrackWiz rating of 54.17 puts her solidly in the mix, and Francisco Arrieta is a capable hand for the placement. At fair odds, she's an easy addition to exacta and trifecta tickets behind the favorite.

show11Jazz QueenML 6/1

Jazz Queen (11) is one of two horses tied at a 51.67 TrackWiz rating in this race but gets the nod thanks to trainer Joe Sharp's strong maiden record and Axel Concepcion's familiarity with Sharp runners. At 6/1 on the morning line, she represents genuine value as a show or trifecta piece in a wide-open sprint that could scramble in the final yards.

Race 5

6:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Twelve runners on the Ellis Park turf at a mile, and the TrackWiz ratings say to throw out the morning-line favorite — a pair of double-digit prices lead our analysis and make this race a potential value bonanza.

win3Got GoneML 12/1

Got Gone (3) tops our ratings at 73.96 despite being listed at 12/1 on the morning line — that's a significant discrepancy that TrackWiz analysis flags as a prime value opportunity. Alex Achard takes the mount for trainer John Ennis, and the 16% career win rate on a turf route horse at this price is the kind of angle serious bettors circle. If this horse gets a good pace to run at, the price is well worth the risk.

place12Honor AztecaML 10/1

Honor Azteca (12) rates second at 72.14 and is also available at 10/1, giving our top two picks a combined morning-line price well over 20-1. James Graham rides for J. Keith Desormeaux, a trainer with grass savvy, and a 9% career win rate on a horse priced this generously means the place pool could offer excellent value on a ticket.

show7GalatinaML 6/1

Galatina (7) slots in third on our ratings at 70.62 with trainer Wayne M. Catalano sending her out at 6/1 — arguably the best price-to-rating ratio among the closer-form horses in the field. Gabriel Saez handles the riding duties, and in a wide, potentially pace-hot turf mile, a horse with this rating sitting comfortably in the mid-field could be in a great spot to close.

Race 6

7:12 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A nine-horse starter allowance on the dirt mile where the top two TrackWiz-rated horses are separated by barely a point — this figures to be a tight, competitive finish between two quality runners.

win5TheaML 3/1

Thea (5) leads all starters with an 85.19 TrackWiz rating and a career win rate of 21%, backing up the morning-line favoritism at 3/1 with real numbers. Abel Cedillo gets the mount for trainer Lindsay Schultz, and a 53 average speed figure keeps this horse right in the heart of the field's pace range. The combination of top rating, solid win percentage, and a competent jockey makes Thea the straightforward win selection here.

place1Angel BellaML 5/1

Angel Bella (1) is a razor-thin second in the ratings at 84.17 — just one point separating her from the top pick — and brings a 20% career win rate that mirrors Thea's profile almost exactly. Trainer D. Whitworth Beckman sends this one out at 5/1 with Luan Machado up, and the inside post at a mile on a dirt track often plays well here at Ellis. If the pace sets up honest, Angel Bella could have the last run.

show6GypsanML 6/1

Gypsan (6) rates third in the field at 75.13 with a strong 22% career win rate — the highest of any horse in this field — suggesting Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. has a mount that knows how to finish. At 6/1 on the morning line, trainer Chris A. Hartman's runner is a natural underneath piece in exactas and trifectas, especially if the top two split each other's energy going to the far turn.

Race 7

7:42 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A nine-horse allowance on the Ellis turf at 1 1/16 miles where the morning-line favorite rates behind two horses on our sheet — expect the odds board to tell a different story than the TrackWiz ratings.

win9Right to WinML 6/1

Right to Win (9) leads the field with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating and an impressive 33% career win rate — one of the strongest winning profiles on today's entire card. Florent Geroux is a top-shelf turf rider, and trainer Lauren Robson's runner at 6/1 represents a clear overlay situation where our ratings diverge from the morning line. At a mile and a sixteenth on the grass, a horse with this kind of win percentage is dangerous from any post.

place5Two Beers by TenML 3/1

Two Beers by Ten (5) is the morning-line choice at 3/1 and brings a 70.50 TrackWiz rating along with a 17% career win rate to a turf route where trainer Michael J. Maker is always live. Danny Sheehy takes the call, and the 55 average speed figure is the highest in this field — suggesting this horse has a bit more raw pace than the rest. Even if Right to Win runs the table, this horse profiles as a natural runner-up.

show2Rocky JoyML 6/1

Rocky Joy (2) checks in third on our ratings at 63.76 and slots in at 6/1 with Gabriel Saez in the irons for trainer Jose Luiz Aranha. The 54 average speed figure ties for second-best in the race, and in a turf route with a pace-influenced scenario, a horse sitting mid-pack with these numbers can sneak into the trifecta at a price worth taking.

Race 8

8:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

An 11-horse dirt allowance at seven furlongs that looks like a two-horse race at the top of the ratings — but a massive price in the show spot makes the exotics extremely interesting.

win8Rebel InstinctML 9/5

Rebel Instinct (8) is the dominant figure on this card, leading all runners with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and a 33% career win rate that stamps this as a genuine class horse. Florent Geroux teams up with Brad H. Cox — one of the most formidable trainer-jockey combinations in the region — and the 55 average speed figure is tied for the field's best. At 9/5 on the morning line, this is a horse you respect, not fade, and the rating gap over the rest of the field is hard to argue with.

place6Corona de OroML 7/2

Corona de Oro (6) is the clear second choice in our ratings at 78.38 and is trained by Dallas Stewart, who conditions horses exceptionally well around the Ellis oval. Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. handles the riding, and at 7/2 on the morning line, the place pool on this horse should offer some juice. A 14% career win rate doesn't scream dominant, but paired with the second-best rating in the field, a board finish looks very likely.

show11QuarryML 20/1

Quarry (11) is the value piece of the puzzle at 20/1 on the morning line, carrying a 55.36 TrackWiz rating that outpaces several single-digit-priced rivals. Abel Cedillo gets the mount for trainer Mark Simms, Jr., and in a race where the top two are well-established, the show pool could be soft enough that Quarry at this price makes the trifecta a worth-playing ticket. This is speculative, but 20/1 for a horse with a legitimate rating in an allowance field deserves attention.

Race 9

8:42 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A 13-horse maiden special weight mile on the turf to close out the card — Ian Wilkes sends out the morning-line favorite, but a double-digit price in the place spot steals the show on our ratings sheet.

win9PaseoML 3/1

Paseo (9) is the clear top selection with a 77.08 TrackWiz rating — well clear of the rest of this maiden field — and comes in as the 3/1 morning-line choice with Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. in the irons. Trainer Ian R. Wilkes knows this track and excels placing first-time starters and lightly raced maidens in spots where they can win. With a 54 average speed figure and the most polished overall profile in the race, Paseo is the straightforward top selection to break her maiden here.

place10Marble ArchML 12/1

Marble Arch (10) is the eye-catching angle of this race — a 63.96 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in the field, yet carries a 12/1 morning line that screams overlay. Cristian A. Torres takes the mount for trainer Robert Medina, and in a maiden field where no one has won before, a horse with a second-best rating at double-digit odds is worth attacking in the exacta and place pool. This is exactly the kind of value spot TrackWiz analysis is designed to surface.

show13Determined DancerML 9/2

Determined Dancer (13) rates third in the field at 54.17 and comes in at a workable 9/2 on the morning line, trained by Cherie DeVaux who also saddles Good Conduct in the same race — a barn split that's worth noting. Axel Concepcion rides, and while the rating gap between Determined Dancer and the top two is meaningful, a 54.17 score in a wide-open maiden field is enough to warrant inclusion in trifecta and superfecta tickets.

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Bottom line: Ellis Park is serving up a full and interesting Thursday card, and our top-rated horse on the day — Rebel Instinct in Race 8 — is the name to circle. For the free plays, Argan, Bearister, and Banned for Life are our best bet selections to kick off the afternoon. Unlock the full card breakdown, pace projections, and exotic strategies with a TrackWiz subscription at /pricing. Good luck out there — stay hydrated and cash tickets.

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