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Delaware Park Picks & Predictions — September 16, 2026

September 16, 20268 racesAll Delaware Park picks

Delaware Park is playing host to a full 8-race card today under clear skies and a comfortable 79°F — just about as good as late-September conditions get at a Mid-Atlantic oval. The turf course figures to be running firm and fast with no weather concerns, which is great news for the three grass races on the afternoon slate.

The card is a nice mix of maiden events, claiming races, and starter optional claimers spread across both dirt and turf, giving bettors plenty of angles to work. Distance variety is solid too — from a quick 5½-furlong dash on the dirt to routes stretching past a mile on the lawn.

TrackWiz has broken down all 8 races, with the first three free to every reader and the full card available to subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:40 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming opener on the dirt where trainer Jamie Ness saddles two horses and holds a significant edge in the ratings — but the pace could get spicy with several speed-leaning profiles in the field.

win5UniquenessML 3/1

Uniqueness is the clear top-rated horse in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — nearly 30 points clear of the second-best rated runner — and the morning line of 3/1 reflects legitimate public respect. Trainer Jamie Ness is a presence in the Mid-Atlantic circuit and tightening up a maiden at this level is right in his wheelhouse. The average speed figure of 53 is competitive for this maiden claiming sprint, and with Martin Chuan up, there's a capable pilot in the irons. In a field where every horse has a career win percentage of zero, the ratings gap here is the clearest edge we can find.

place3Jack RabbitnessML 2/1

Jack Rabbitness posts the highest average speed figure in the field at 55, which gives him a legitimate class edge on raw pace numbers in a 6-furlong dirt sprint. Also trained by Jamie Ness, there's a dual-bullet scenario here where the barn clearly has live runners in the race. Jaime Rodriguez gets the call and should be able to find a good trip off what could be a contentious early pace.

show6AllaboutjotonightML 4/1

Allaboutjotonight draws the 6-post with Paco Lopez — one of the most accomplished jockeys on the Mid-Atlantic circuit — and that rider upgrade alone puts this one in the exotic conversation. The 4/1 morning line reflects fair value, and a TrackWiz rating of 55 slots right into the middle of this field. In a maiden race with no proven winners, Lopez's experience navigating a pace scenario could be the difference for a placing.

Race 2

5:17 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short-field starter optional claiming sprint where the two highest-rated horses are both post-time underdogs to the morning-line favorite — setting up a prime overlay situation for sharp bettors.

win6It's the Law BabyML 3/1

It's the Law Baby carries a TrackWiz rating of 86.45, second-best in this field by a comfortable margin, and the 3/1 morning line actually represents solid value given how far that rating separates from the pack. Jose A. Batista gets the mount for trainer Jesus Rodriguez, and with a career win percentage of 25%, this horse has shown an ability to close the deal when conditions align. The 5½-furlong distance on dirt suits a closer or stalker profile, and the pace setup — with Where Are You likely pushing up front — could set the table perfectly for a late run.

place2Great DestinyML 8/1

Great Destiny is the most interesting overlay in this race, sitting at 8/1 on the morning line despite owning the top TrackWiz rating of 79.79 in the field. A 33% career win rate is legitimately strong at this level, and trainer Nesvil Hernan Bailon has this horse ready to fire. Emanuel Rosario gets a live shot at a big price, and if It's the Law Baby kicks first, Great Destiny figures to be right there cleaning up in the place spot.

show1Where Are YouML 9/5

Where Are You opens at 9/5 on the morning line and carries a perfect 100% career win rate, which means every time this horse has entered the winner's circle, it has won outright — a small but undefeated record. Trainer Greg Compton sends her out with Vincent Cheminaud, and while the TrackWiz rating of 58.67 is the third-best in the field, the horse's win consistency makes her a reliable exotics anchor. At short odds she's hard to bet for value, but as a show safety net in a trifecta, she earns her spot.

Race 3

5:46 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Turf

Ten runners go to the turf at a mile and 70 yards in a claiming affair, and the Jamie Ness barn once again dominates the ratings — though a pair of 7/2 shots make this look more competitive on paper than it might actually be.

win10Stella MarsML 7/2

Stella Mars carries a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 — the top mark in a 10-horse field — and the 7/2 morning line is a fair but beatable price for a horse with this kind of ratings edge. Trainer Jamie Ness has been one of the more active conditioners on the Delaware card today, and Martin Chuan in the irons keeps the connections tight. The average speed figure of 54 is middle-of-the-pack, but on turf routes, tactical versatility and fitness often trump raw figures — and Ness horses tend to be ready.

place5Cha Cha ChukkaML 3/1

Cha Cha Chukka rates second in the field at 74.23 and opens at a juicy 3/1 morning line, making her an excellent place-ticket anchor in a race her barn (also Jamie Ness) could potentially sweep. Jaime Rodriguez takes the mount, and the 53 average speed figure is right in line with the expected pace flow of a mile-plus turf route. At 3/1, you're not laying a lot of juice for a horse that the TrackWiz model clearly respects.

show7Classicals FinaleML 7/2

Classicals Finale is essentially a coin flip on ratings with the place pick — a 73.91 rating at 7/2 on the morning line is outstanding value for a show ticket. Daniel Centeno has been getting live mounts lately and this is one of them, with trainer Richard P. Sillaman sending him out at a price that screams inclusion in exotics. The 54 average speed figure ties with Stella Mars and suggests this horse can run with the best in the field on a pace-honest turf route.

Our three free plays today span maiden claiming, starter optional claiming, and a turf claiming route — a real cross-section of the card. Uniqueness (Race 1, 3/1 ML) leads off the free slate with an 87.08 rating in a maiden claiming sprint, the kind of spot where TrackWiz ratings have historically shown strong ROI. It's the Law Baby follows in Race 2 at the same 3/1 morning line over 5½ furlongs of dirt, while Stella Mars rounds out the free trio in Race 3, drawing a 7/2 ticket on the turf route — a surface that should be playing fair and fast today given the clear conditions.

Worth noting: two of our three free top picks share a 3/1 morning line, which tells us the morning-line makers see competitive fields in those spots. That's exactly where sharp play can find a little extra value if the board drifts the right direction post-scratch.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight fillies go two turns of dirt in a nine-horse field where several first-time starters cloud the picture — and a pair of well-connected barns could send out the top two finishers.

win2Sewanee InnML 5/2

Sewanee Inn tops the TrackWiz ratings at 57.50 among horses with workable data, and the 5/2 morning line reflects the book's respect for trainer H. Graham Motion — one of the most accomplished conditioners in the Mid-Atlantic region. The 54 average speed figure is the second-best posted number in the field and suggests she has the raw ability to compete in a Maiden Special Weight. Jaime Rodriguez gets the call, and with Motion's consistent record of pointing horses perfectly for their debut or early starts, Sewanee Inn deserves her spot at the top of the card.

place5PoulinML 7/2

Poulin rates 55.83 and posts an average speed figure of 53 — respectable numbers for a maiden — and trainer Michael Stidham knows how to get horses ready to fire first time or off a short layoff. Carol Cedeno picks up the mount, and at 7/2 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse sitting just behind the top pick in the ratings. In a race this wide open, Poulin's combination of ratings and trainer class makes her a logical place candidate.

show1Of CourseML 5/1

Of Course breaks from the rail with Jevian Toledo up — and Toledo is one of the sharper riders in this circuit, capable of stealing a ground-saving trip along the inside in a six-furlong sprint. Trainer McLean Robertson sends her out at 5/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 53.33, which puts her comfortably in the top half of the field. In a MSW maiden where many runners lack speed figures entirely, Of Course's rail position and jockey quality make her a legitimate show threat worth including in trifectas.

Race 5

6:48 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Turf

A sprawling 15-horse field goes a mile and 70 yards on the turf in a starter optional claiming, and sorting pace from the large field will be the key — our top picks are all overpriced relative to their TrackWiz numbers.

win13Hotter Than FireML 8/1

Hotter Than Fire rates 79.79 — the highest mark in this 15-runner field — and opens at 8/1, which is outstanding overlay territory for a horse the model clearly separates from the pack. Trainer Jamie Ness continues to be the dominant barn on the Delaware card today, and Jaime Rodriguez gets the call on the turf at a distance that favors patient, tactically sound runners. A career win percentage of 12% isn't flashy, but in a 15-horse field of starter optional claimers, consistency matters more than raw strike rate — and the ratings edge here is significant.

place6Will of VictoryML 6/1

Will of Victory carries a 71.41 rating and a 20% career win rate, which is a solid foundation heading into a competitive turf route. Trainer Mario Roberto Lopez sends her out with Matilda Burnham up, and the 6/1 morning line makes her an attractive play in the exotics at a price that doesn't hurt. Her average speed figure of 53 fits the expected pace scenario of this race, and in a field this large, the place pool can offer serious value on a horse of this quality.

show2Secret OaksML 10/1

Secret Oaks is a 10/1 morning-line shot with a 25% career win rate — that's a horse who closes the deal one in four tries, which stands out in a field this size. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser sends her out with Ricardo Chiappe, and the TrackWiz rating of 57.50 ranks her right behind the top picks. At 10/1 she's a legitimate longshot value in the show spot, and including her in trifectas and superfectas at those odds could pay handsomely if the top picks run 1-2.

Race 6

7:23 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A nine-horse claiming mile on the dirt where one horse — Bugged Out — separates himself from the field on ratings, but a pair of intriguing price horses could make the exotics very rewarding.

win2Bugged OutML 2/1

Bugged Out has the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 88.54 and opens as the 2/1 morning-line favorite — the model and the public agree, which is always a good sign. Trainer Charles A. DeMario sends him out with Angel Moreno, and a 16% career win rate in a claiming context is workmanlike and consistent. The average speed figure of 53 is competitive on this dirt mile, and at 2/1 there isn't huge value, but in a race this clear-cut on ratings, laying a short price on a class standout is often the smart play.

place8AdeML 5/1

Ade is the most intriguing price in this race — a 75.61 TrackWiz rating at 5/1 on the morning line with Paco Lopez in the irons for trainer Anthony Pecoraro. The career win percentage of 8% is modest, but Lopez doesn't take bad mounts, and a horse that rates this highly while going overlooked by the morning line is exactly the kind of overlay the TrackWiz model is designed to find. At 5/1 in the place pool, Ade is outstanding value in any exotic bet.

show5Lady ArwenML 3/1

Lady Arwen rates 62.17 and opens at 3/1, giving her the third-best morning-line price in the field while ranking third in our ratings — a perfectly aligned situation for show-ticket inclusion. Jesus M. Rios gets the call for trainer Jose S. Rodriguez, and the 52 average speed figure is consistent with the expected pace of a mile dirt claiming race. She doesn't wow you in any single category, but the combination of ratings, price, and rider quality makes her a solid show-spot hedge in the exotics.

Race 7

7:53 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A 13-horse turf starter optional claiming at a mile and a sixteenth is one of the trickiest races on the card — a cluster of runners in the 60-80 ratings range sets up a competitive affair with legitimate overlay opportunities in the middle of the pack.

win3Tiz ComplexML 7/2

Tiz Complex rates 83.31 — second-highest in the field — and opens at 7/2, making him the morning-line favorite in terms of price and the clear second pick by our ratings. Trainer Cathal A. Lynch is a sharp conditioner on this circuit, and Vincent Cheminaud is a capable turf jockey who can rate a horse in a large field. The average speed figure of 52 is right in line with the competitive midpack, but the class and rating edge suggest Tiz Complex is operating at a higher level than his price implies.

place13Back Wall BanditML 8/1

Back Wall Bandit carries an impressive 23% career win rate — one of the higher marks in this field — and a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 that ranks him third-best among all starters. Trainer Michael V. Simone sends him out at 8/1 on the morning line, which is a significant overlay for a horse with this kind of win consistency and ratings profile. In a 13-horse field where pace angles get scrambled, a horse with a strong winning record and a patient jockey (Jose A. Batista) has a real shot to find daylight late.

show6El Ma'anyML 4/1

El Ma'any rates 76.93 and carries a 25% career win rate — one of the strongest in the field — for trainer Michael Dini at 4/1 on the morning line. Paco Lopez has a double call today (also on Pippa's Noncents), but he's on El Ma'any here, which suggests connections feel good about this runner's chance on the turf. The average speed figure of 53 is right at the competitive median for this field, and at 4/1 in the show spot, this is a horse worth including in trifectas and superfectas.

Race 8

8:24 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A compact six-horse maiden optional claiming mile on the dirt to close out the card — and it's far from a typical chalk situation, with the top-rated horse and the morning-line favorite being two different horses.

win2No More KingsML 2/1

No More Kings posts the top TrackWiz rating of 88.54 in a six-horse field while sitting at 2/1 on the morning line — not a bargain price, but the ratings edge over the second-best horse is notable. Trainer Greg Compton puts Paco Lopez on the mount, and Lopez has been sharp on this card all day. The average speed figure of 53 is competitive for a maiden dirt mile, and in a short field where there's nowhere to hide, class and ratings tend to sort out cleanly — No More Kings looks like the most professional runner in here.

place5Where's Your BoomML 6/1

Where's Your Boom opens at 6/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 58.33 — the second-highest in the field — and trainer Kelly Lynn Deiter doubles up in this race, giving her two shots to connect. Vincent Cheminaud gets this one, and the average speed figure of 52 is workable for the distance. At 6/1, this is a genuine overlay for a horse whose ratings say she should be a much shorter price — a prime candidate for place and exacta inclusion.

show1UndertakerML 6/5

Undertaker is the morning-line favorite at 6/5 but rates only 55.96 on the TrackWiz model — well behind No More Kings' 88.54 — which flags a potential vulnerable favorite scenario. Trainer Ben Ramos sends him out with Cipriano Gil, and the 54 average speed figure is competitive but not dominant. If you're structuring trifectas, using Undertaker in the show spot while keying the higher-rated horses on top is a smart approach — he's likely to hit the board but the model suggests he won't be winning this.

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Bottom line: Delaware Park is giving us a clean, playable card today with excellent conditions and a clear standout in Bugged Out (Race 6). The free races — headlined by Uniqueness, It's the Law Baby, and Stella Mars — give every reader a strong starting point. For pace projections, multi-race wagering strategy, and the full card analysis, TrackWiz subscribers have everything they need. Check out /pricing if you want in on the complete picture. Good luck out there — let's have a day.

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