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Delaware Park Picks & Predictions — September 12, 2026

September 12, 202610 racesAll Delaware Park picks

Delaware Park sends out a 10-race card this Saturday under cloudy skies and a comfortable 80°F — conditions that should keep the main track playing fair and the turf course lively heading into the afternoon. No rain in the picture means we're not expecting any last-minute surface changes, so handicap accordingly.

The card has real meat on it today. We've got two stakes races — Race 4 on the dirt and Race 9 on the turf — bookending a full slate that runs the gamut from maiden claimers to a starter allowance. Whether you're firing singles or building multi-race tickets, there's plenty to work with across all 10 races.

TrackWiz analysis covers the complete card. The first three races are free for everyone — a nice warm-up before the card heats up — with the final seven races reserved for subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:37 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming sprint with a field full of first-timers and lightly raced runners — but one horse carries a TrackWiz rating that towers over the rest of the field by a significant margin.

win10Royal MistML 9/2

Royal Mist (No. 10) is the class of this field on our ratings, posting an 84.9 that leaves the rest of the field in the dust — the next closest is We Goin at 56.67. Paco Lopez climbs aboard, a rider who knows how to get debut runners into rhythm at this level. The posted average speed figure of 53 is workmanlike but more than enough for this group, and that 9/2 morning line may be a bit generous given the rating gap.

place5We GoinML 3/1

We Goin (No. 5) brings an average speed figure of 54 — actually edging Royal Mist on raw speed — and trainer Anthony W. Dutrow puts horses on the board at a decent clip. The 3/1 morning line makes this one of the more heavily backed horses in the race, but if you're looking for a solid exacta anchor underneath the top pick, the numbers support it.

show3Brown Sugar BettyML 4/1

Brown Sugar Betty (No. 3) checks in at 55 on the TrackWiz rating with an average speed figure of 52 under trainer Keri Brion, who has a knack for preparing first-out runners. At 4/1, she's a legitimate price to fill out the trifecta and represents the best of the remaining first-time starters without prior speed figures on record.

Race 2

5:08 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This starter optional claiming sprint features a fascinating pace mismatch — a horse with a 50% career win rate at one end of the spectrum and a high-rated closer lurking at double-digit odds at the other.

win9Derby HangoverML 8/1

Derby Hangover (No. 9) carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 78.47 and posts an average speed figure of 55 — best of any horse in this race. The 8/1 morning line makes this a genuine value play rather than a chalk bet, and trainer Teresa M. Pompay has saddled this one to roll. Jockey Cipriano Gil will need to find a clean trip, but the underlying numbers say this horse is faster than the market currently implies.

place4MeatballsforariesML 9/2

Meatballsforaries (No. 4) owns the best career win percentage in the field at 16% and rates second in the TrackWiz rankings at 76.29. Trainer Andrew L. Simoff consistently gets horses ready to fire in spots like this, and Julio A. Hernandez is a reliable pilot at this level. At 9/2, the place price should be solid if this horse runs to form.

show3Dina's TouchML 5/2

Dina's Touch (No. 3) slots in third on our ratings at 74.58 and draws the 5/2 morning line — the public clearly respects her chances. Trainer Jose S. Rodriguez keeps this one competitive, and a 10% career win rate in claiming company tells you she finds ways to hit the board even when the win doesn't come. She's the safety net for exacta and trifecta coverage.

Race 3

5:38 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A two-horse war looks likely at the top of this claiming route, with Hawkstone and Seeking Unity separating themselves on both the morning line and the TrackWiz ratings — but a couple of live longshots add intrigue.

win3HawkstoneML 7/2

Hawkstone (No. 3) sits atop our ratings at 86.35 and wins at a 20% clip in his career — respectable for claiming company at this distance. Trainer Pedro Nazario has him in good form and jockey Paul A. Luna knows the Delaware Park dirt well. The 7/2 morning line is fair value for the top-rated horse in the field, and the mile-and-70-yard distance suits a consistent closer profile.

place8Seeking UnityML 5/2

Seeking Unity (No. 8) is rated second in this field at 78.55 and carries a 20% career win rate of his own, matching Hawkstone stride for stride on that metric. Paco Lopez in the irons is a significant upgrade angle — he's one of the best riders in this circuit. At 5/2, the place market may pay less than you'd like, but the horse's consistency makes him a near lock to hit the board.

show4Freedom StanceML 8/1

Freedom Stance (No. 4) is the value show play here at 8/1, posting a TrackWiz rating of 65.67 and the highest career win rate in the entire field at 27%. Trainer Daniel Velazquez has him pointed right, and if the pace scenario sets up honest, a closer with that win percentage tends to find the frame. Use him in trifectas as a live 8/1 shot.

The opening trio gives us an interesting cross-section of the card. Royal Mist (Race 1, 9/2 morning line) headlines the free picks in a 5½-furlong maiden claimer on dirt, posting an 84.9 TrackWiz rating that stands out in what figures to be a modest field. In Race 2, Derby Hangover is our value angle — the 8/1 morning line in a starter optional claiming sprint screams overlaid, and at a 78.47 rating we're not blindly chasing the chalk. Then in Race 3, Hawkstone draws our attention in a 1-mile 70-yard claimer, carrying an 86.35 rating and a sensible 7/2 price that makes the risk-reward conversation easy.

One thing connecting these three early races: the dirt course figures to play honest under these dry, mild conditions. No bias toward the rail or deep closers based on what we're seeing today — pace scenario and raw ability should sort these fields out cleanly. Good news for handicappers who like their analysis to actually hold up at the gate.

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Race 4

6:11 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The day's first stakes race presents a genuine puzzle — the morning-line favorite carries the biggest brand name, but two horses at 8/1 own ratings that say this is much closer than the odds suggest.

win1Cadet CorpsML 7/5

Cadet Corps (No. 1) opens as the 7/5 morning-line favorite and for good reason — a TrackWiz rating of 82.89 and a career win percentage of 31% put him firmly in class-of-the-field territory. Paco Lopez takes the mount, one of the top pilots on the East Coast circuit, and trainer Kelly J. Breen has a strong record pointing horses for spots like this. The price won't be exciting, but the résumé backs up the chalk.

place7Mr. RippleML 8/1

Mr. Ripple (No. 7) is the horse we think the morning line seriously underestimates. His TrackWiz rating of 79.79 is only three points off the favorite's, and he matches Cadet Corps on career win percentage at 31%. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser has him primed, and an 8/1 morning line on a horse this close in the ratings to the favorite is where value lives in stakes races.

show4ProfoundML 8/1

Profound (No. 4) rounds out our stakes trifecta with a 75.88 rating and a 27% career win rate — legitimately strong numbers in a spot like this. Trainer Harold Wyner and jockey Frankie Pennington have a working relationship, and Profound's profile suggests a horse who can sit off a contested pace and grind to the wire. Another 8/1 overlay that deserves exotic action.

Race 5

6:42 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A massive field takes to the turf for this claiming route, and sorting through 16 runners is no small task — but the TrackWiz model finds a clear top tier separated from the rest of the field by double-digit rating points.

win12Take Me To ChurchML 7/2

Take Me To Church (No. 12) tops our ratings at 86.35 with an average speed figure of 55 — the best in the field — and trainer Gregory D. Sacco is one of the sharper conditioners for turf routes in this region. Paco Lopez gets the call, making this a formidable connections package at just 7/2. A 15% career win rate in a field this large is actually a positive indicator, and we like the overall package here.

place13BodecreamML 5/1

Bodecream (No. 13) rates second in the field at 83.62 and shares the same barn as Mo Rewards under trainer Jamie Ness — a dual-entry that suggests strong stable confidence in the distance and surface. Martin Chuan rides, and an average speed figure of 54 on the turf is plenty fast enough to contend. The 5/1 morning line is workable for the place, especially when paired with the top pick in an exacta.

show7ArjayML 4/1

Arjay (No. 7) is our show pick here at 4/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 79.66 and a 21% career win rate — the latter being one of the better figures in this sprawling field. Trainer Kerri Raven has kept this horse competitive on the lawn, and a 21-win-percentage horse at 4/1 in a 16-horse turf field offers legitimate trifecta upside. Carol Cedeno rides, and she's capable of finding ground in traffic.

Race 6

7:13 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint for fillies and mares with a largely debut or lightly-raced field — the horses who have actually posted speed figures hold a measurable edge, and two closers separate from the pack on the ratings.

win9Maxie's MunnyML 7/2

Maxie's Munny (No. 9) tops our ratings at 55.83 with an average speed figure of 54 and draws Julio A. Hernandez, one of the more consistent riders in this circuit. Trainer Daniel G. Eubanks has a solid track record at Delaware Park, and the 7/2 morning line reflects both public and model confidence. In a maiden field where many horses have no prior speed figures on record, any measurable form is a significant advantage.

place7Mitoleon DynamiteML 9/2

Mitoleon Dynamite (No. 7) is right behind at a 54.17 rating and also owns an average speed figure of 55 — matching the top pick's raw pace numbers. Trainer Keri Brion is well-regarded for developing younger horses and getting them ready to fire, and Martin Chuan is a capable pilot at this level. The 9/2 morning line makes the exacta with Maxie's Munny an attractive play.

show2Cosmic AngelML 6/1

Cosmic Angel (No. 2) is one of the few horses in this field with a solid rating (51.67) despite having no prior speed figures logged — suggesting her profile is built on workout and pedigree data that our model found encouraging. Trainer Greg Compton knows how to place first-time starters, and at 6/1, she's a reasonable trifecta wheel for players looking to broaden coverage.

Race 7

7:44 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

One horse in this maiden claiming sprint stands alone — Nazeer's TrackWiz rating of 87.08 is nearly 32 points clear of the second-best horse in the field, making this a prime single for multi-race wagers.

win8NazeerML 3/1

Nazeer (No. 8) is the standout of the entire day's card in terms of rating separation from his competition, posting an 87.08 in a field where nobody else cracks 56. Paco Lopez takes the mount for trainer Gregory D. Sacco, an elite connections combo that gives this horse every advantage going into the gate. An average speed figure of 53 backs up the model, and the 3/1 morning line is a gift on a horse this dominant on paper.

place11Williston WizardML 4/1

Williston Wizard (No. 11) checks in second on the ratings at 55 with an average speed figure of 52, and trainer Edward T. Allard has experience bringing young horses along steadily. Martin Chuan has the call and knows the Delaware oval well. At 4/1, the place payoff should be reasonable, and this is a legitimate second-best horse in a field where the rest are bunched well below.

show1El WoodsieML 6/1

El Woodsie (No. 1) is a TrackWiz-rated 51.67 out of the Kelly J. Breen barn — a trainer with a strong record at this meet — and Daniel Centeno has been picking his spots well this meet. No prior speed figure on record keeps some uncertainty in the profile, but post position 1 in a six-furlong sprint can be a tactical advantage with the right trip. A 6/1 show play in exotics is fair.

Race 8

8:16 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A full field of 12 goes to the gate in this starter allowance route, and the pace scenario looks honest — which should set things up nicely for the top-rated closer in the field who is priced as an overlay.

win2Admiral MoML 6/1

Admiral Mo (No. 2) is our top pick with a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 and the most impressive career win percentage in the field at 40% — that's a genuinely elite number for this level. Paco Lopez takes over the mount for trainer Kelly J. Breen, a combination that has a proven track record converting favorites and overlays alike. An average speed figure of 54 is clean, and the 6/1 morning line on a horse with these numbers represents real value.

place9Striking SparksML 4/1

Striking Sparks (No. 9) rates second in the field at 71.24 with a 23% career win rate and an average speed figure of 53 that matches the field average. Trainer Jose S. Rodriguez has this one in good form, and Jesus M. Rios gets the call. At 4/1, the place price won't be flush, but the consistency of the form profile makes Striking Sparks a reliable exacta partner underneath the top pick.

show10GuaponessML 10/1

Guaponess (No. 10) is the value show play at 10/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 67.13 — not far off the second pick — and trainer Jamie Ness has a knack for keeping horses sharp through the starter allowance ranks. A 21% career win rate gives you confidence this horse finds the board more often than not, and the 10/1 morning line makes the trifecta return attractive if you can land the top two.

Race 9

8:44 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The nightcap stakes on the turf is headlined by a horse with a perfect career record, setting up a fascinating betting dynamic between the short-priced standout and a cluster of well-rated alternatives at better prices.

win11Intrepids FantasyML 6/5

Intrepids Fantasy (No. 11) carries a 100% career win percentage — she's undefeated — and tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.18. Trainer Gary Capuano is one of the premier turf conditioners in the Mid-Atlantic, and Emanuel Rosario will look to get a good position early on the lawn. The 6/5 morning line is short, but an unbeaten record at the top of the ratings in a stakes field is hard to fade.

place9MopoML 3/1

Mopo (No. 9) is the most intriguing alternative in the field, posting a 82.88 rating — virtually identical to Intrepid Mo — with a 28% career win rate and an eye-catching average speed figure of 56, the best in the race. Trainer Phillip Capuano has this one fit and firing, and the 3/1 morning line makes the place payoff meaningful. In a turf stakes where anything can happen in traffic, Mopo's raw speed numbers deserve respect.

show8Intrepid MoML 6/1

Intrepid Mo (No. 8) rates third in the field at 82.71 and owns a 36% career win rate — matching co-favorite Souper Williwaw on that metric but at a much friendlier 6/1 morning line. Also trained by Gary Capuano, this one benefits from a barn that clearly knows the turf circuit, and pairing both Capuano runners in trifecta combinations makes strong handicapping sense. A horse with these credentials showing at 6/1 is a legitimate value play.

Race 10

9:14 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The finale is a crowded 13-horse claiming sprint on the dirt, and the TrackWiz model identifies a clear top selection while a pair of double-digit morning-line prices offer trifecta value in a race that could get chaotic early.

win4Miss Mo TownML 7/2

Miss Mo Town (No. 4) dominates the ratings in this field at 86.35 — the same elite figure that topped a couple of earlier races today — with an average speed figure of 55 and trainer Jamie Ness sending her out in top form. Yedsit Hazlewood gets the call, and in a 13-horse sprint where early pace could get heated, a horse with this combination of raw speed and overall rating should be able to find a good spot and sustain. The 7/2 morning line is fair.

place12Dip FantasiaML 5/1

Dip Fantasia (No. 12) is rated second in the field at 70.12 — a 16-point gap below the top pick, but comfortably clear of the rest of the field — with an average speed figure of 54. Trainer Michael Stidham is a quality conditioner who doesn't miss spots, and Jose A. Batista aboard adds a reliable hand. At 5/1, the place price is attractive for a horse who clearly has more class than most in this field.

show2Little GussieML 10/1

Little Gussie (No. 2) is our value show play at 10/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 68.9 — actually third-best in the field — and an average speed figure of 55 that ties the top pick. A 10/1 morning line on a horse who rates this high in the field is a genuine overlay, and if the pace scenario gets honest and the top two battle it out, Little Gussie has the raw numbers to be there at the finish. Trifecta players should strongly consider including her.

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Today's Delaware Park card is a solid mid-September program anchored by two stakes races and a collection of competitive claiming and maiden events that reward sharp handicapping. Royal Mist, Derby Hangover, and Hawkstone are your free best bets to get the day started — and Intrepids Fantasy in the Race 9 turf stakes is the name to know on the full card. For pace projections, exotic strategies, and analysis on all 10 races, the complete breakdown is live now for TrackWiz subscribers. Good luck at the windows.

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