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Delaware Park Picks & Predictions — September 17, 2026

September 17, 20268 racesAll Delaware Park picks

Delaware Park rolls out an eight-race Thursday card under partly cloudy skies with temperatures sitting at a comfortable 83°F. Conditions look favorable across both surfaces — the dirt should be playing fast, and the turf gets multiple looks today with three grass races on the slate. That kind of split card always creates interesting pace dynamics and some genuine cross-surface handicapping puzzles.

We've got a mix of starter optional claiming sprints, a couple of maiden events, and an allowance race that shapes up as one of the more competitive bouts of the afternoon. There's something for every type of bettor today — speed lovers, turf specialists, and value hunters alike.

Three races are open to all readers on TrackWiz. The remaining five are part of our full premium breakdown. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:40 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses separate themselves from the pack in this Starter Optional Claiming sprint, but the morning line may be misleading — our top-rated runner goes postward at a generous 3/1 while the chalk carries a significantly lower TrackWiz rating.

win1Java TalesML 3/1

Java Tales earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.08 — a full seven points clear of the second-best horse — and backs it up with a 33% career win rate that screams consistency. Jevian Toledo is in the irons, a rider who knows how to get position in a 6-furlong dirt sprint and doesn't give ground cheaply. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's real value here given how decisively the numbers favor this runner over the field.

place6Capricorn BelleML 4/1

Capricorn Belle brings the second-highest TrackWiz rating (80.48) and a jaw-dropping 50% career win percentage — the best strike rate in the entire field. Trainer Cathal A. Lynch sends her out at 4/1, which is a fair price for a horse that wins half the time she shows up. Jose A. Batista gets the call, and this horse looks a near-lock to hit the board even if she can't quite catch Java Tales.

show2Endless GlowML 2/1

Endless Glow opened as the 2/1 morning-line favorite, which tells you the public liked her early, but a TrackWiz rating of 64.11 and a 12% career win rate suggest she's vulnerable at the top of the market. Still, as a show play she offers decent insurance — she's close enough on class to threaten for third money if the top two run to their ratings. Ruben Silvera takes the mount and should be able to find a spot in a field that doesn't project as exceptionally fast.

Race 2

5:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A tight battle at the top of the ratings shapes up between two well-regarded horses going a route of ground on the dirt, while the rest of the field faces a meaningful class and figure gap.

win6Collection DayML 3/2

Collection Day tops the TrackWiz ratings at 89.27 and draws the services of Paco Lopez — one of the sharper pilots in the Mid-Atlantic circuit — for this mile-and-70-yard dirt test. The 3/2 morning line reflects legitimate top-choice status, and a 15% career win rate in what figures to be a competitive spot is worth noting, though the raw rating separation from the field suggests this horse is operating at a different level. In a pace scenario where the route sets up for a presser or stalker, Collection Day's profile fits the distance profile well.

place2Hope's AliveML 7/5

Hope's Alive is no pushover — an 85.88 TrackWiz rating and a 33% career win percentage make this the most proven winner in terms of strike rate. Opened at 7/5, which suggests the market also has this horse high in its estimation, and Ricardo Chiappe is a capable route rider. If Collection Day has any trouble, Hope's Alive is right there to capitalize.

show4Run Happy PappyML 8/1

Run Happy Pappy checks in as the third-best-rated horse in the field at 73.72 — a meaningful step below the top two but a significant jump above the rest. The 8/1 morning line makes this a legitimate value play for show, and a 23% career win rate in claiming company suggests Angel R. Quinones has a horse that knows how to compete. In a race where the top two could press each other hard, Run Happy Pappy stalking from third could be the move to the wire.

Race 3

5:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden turf sprint with a field of first-time and lightly-raced runners makes this one of the trickier puzzles on the card — no horse carries a career win percentage, and the ratings are bunched closely near the top.

win9Golden FaithML 7/2

Golden Faith earns the top TrackWiz rating at 55.83 and gets a 7/2 morning line that represents fair but not overly generous value in a maiden field. Trainer Mario Roberto Lopez sends this runner out over 5 furlongs of turf, a compact sprint that rewards natural speed and quick handling — and an average speed figure of 55 is among the best in the field. Matilda Burnham takes the mount, and in a race where the ratings cluster tightly, that top rating with a shot at a legitimate winning price makes Golden Faith the call.

place10TizocML 5/1

Tizoc ties for the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 53.33 and posts the highest average speed figure among the top contenders at 56. Paco Lopez is a major upgrade in the irons — that's the kind of jockey booking that catches your eye in a maiden race — and a 5/1 morning line leaves some meat on the bone for exotics players. In a 5-furlong turf sprint, getting away cleanly is everything, and Lopez is as good as it gets at that.

show2Aunt JudyML 5/1

Aunt Judy ties Tizoc on the TrackWiz rating (53.33) and gets trainer Cathal A. Lynch, who also saddles Derry Moon in this race — Lynch clearly has multiple bullets loaded. Jose A. Batista rides, giving this entry a solid rider-trainer combination. With no speed figures on file, this reads like a horse whose best work may be ahead of her, which is exactly the profile that can sneak into the exacta at a fair 5/1 price.

The free portion of today's card features three solid races to anchor your afternoon. Java Tales opens the day in Race 1, a 6-furlong starter optional claiming sprint on dirt where our rating of 87.08 makes her the clear top choice at a very playable 3/1 morning line. In Race 2, Collection Day draws our highest free-race rating at 89.27 and goes as the 3/2 morning-line favorite stretching out to a mile and 70 yards on dirt — that kind of class and distance combo is exactly what TrackWiz analysis is built to flag. Rounding out the freebies is Race 3, a 5-furlong turf maiden special weight where Golden Faith sits at 7/2 on the morning line. MSW turf sprints for maidens can be chaotic, and that lower rating of 55.83 reflects genuine uncertainty — approach with measured confidence.

One theme to watch across the free picks: the dirt races today may favor horses who can get to the front or press the pace early. Keep an eye on how the first two dirt races develop — if the early pace setters are holding on, that's useful intel heading into the rest of the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This Starter Optional Claiming sprint looks like a potential wire-to-wire job — one horse towers over the field in both raw rating and career win percentage, and the morning line has already installed it as the even-money favorite.

win3Kerness KML EVN

Kerness K is simply in a different tier here — a TrackWiz rating of 90.00 is the highest we'll see all day in open company, and a 60% career win rate is extraordinary at any level. The even-money morning line is short, yes, but it's defensible when the numbers are this clean. Trainer Jamie Ness puts Martin Chuan up, and with a 56 average speed figure that matches the field's best, this horse has both the class and the raw speed to dictate from the front in a 6-furlong dash.

place7Backside BuzzML 6/1

Backside Buzz rates third in the field at 60.03 and actually edges Twelve Treasures by a hair — enough to get the nod for place honors in a race where the top spot looks locked up. A 15% career win rate understates what the rating says about this horse's consistency, and the 6/1 morning line offers real value if you're looking to build exactas around the likely favorite. Ruben Silvera takes the mount for trainer Timothy C. Kreiser, a solid combination.

show5Twelve TreasuresML 6/1

Twelve Treasures sits just behind Backside Buzz in the ratings at 58.99, but a 29% career win rate — second only to Kerness K in this field — shows this is a horse that competes when it shows up. Emanuel Rosario rides for trainer Renaldo Richards, and a 56 average speed figure means Twelve Treasures can keep up with the early fractions. At 6/1, this runner makes a lot of sense in the exotics as a back-end piece in trifectas.

Race 5

6:48 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A full field of maidens stretches out to a mile and a sixteenth on the turf, creating an intricate pace puzzle — the morning-line favorite doesn't match the top TrackWiz rating, which sets up a potential overlay at a price.

win4FarooqML 6/1

Farooq leads all horses in this 15-runner field with a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 — and does so at 6/1, which is a genuine overlay given how cleanly the numbers separate him. Trainer Karin Wagner puts Jaime Rodriguez in the irons, and an average speed figure of 54 is among the best in the field. Going a mile and a sixteenth on turf, a horse that can rate off the pace and fire down the lane is ideal, and Farooq's profile fits that mold at a price that makes him the standout value play of Race 5.

place3Christ Is KingML 9/2

Christ Is King is the second-best rated horse in the field at 77.27, and a 9/2 morning line is reasonable value for a place play in a field this deep. Ricardo Chiappe rides for trainer Bruce M. Kravets — a combination that's shown up well in route races — and a 54 average speed figure matches Farooq's, meaning this horse can run with the top contenders on raw ability. If Farooq hits the board, Christ Is King shapes as the most likely horse to be right beside him.

show6The Magic SpeedML 3/2

The Magic Speed opened as the 3/2 morning-line favorite, which means the public projects this as the horse to beat — but a TrackWiz rating of 67.46 puts it third in our model, a full 15 points behind Farooq. Paco Lopez rides for Wayne Potts, and that jockey booking is significant in a large maiden field where piloting decisions matter. The show play here is less about the rating and more about acknowledging that the heavy-bet horse is going to attract money and is dangerous enough to finish in the top three, even if our analysis says it's not the best horse in the field.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint on the dirt features two horses within three points of each other at the top of the TrackWiz ratings, setting up what could be a genuine battle between the class of the field — with a sneaky value play lurking at 8/1.

win1OverspentML 4/1

Overspent earns the top TrackWiz rating in this allowance field at 85.62 and comes in at a 4/1 morning line that represents honest value for a horse the numbers say should be the top choice. A 23% career win rate in allowance company is solid, and an average speed figure of 57 is the best in this field — in a 6-furlong dirt sprint, early speed and figure superiority are everything. Mychel J. Sanchez gets the mount for trainer Mark Shuman, and this combination should be competitive right off the break.

place6EastbostonbennyML 2/1

Eastbostonbenny opened as the 2/1 morning-line favorite and carries an 82.92 TrackWiz rating — just three points off the top. Paco Lopez in the irons for Steve Klesaris is an eye-catching jockey-trainer combo, and a 16% career win rate in allowance company, while modest, doesn't fully tell the story the rating does. This horse figures to be in the mix from the start and could easily turn the tables on Overspent if the pace sets up in its favor.

show2SkillianML 8/1

Skillian brings the third-highest TrackWiz rating (75.19) and a 40% career win rate — the best strike rate in the entire field, which is a number that demands attention in any race. Trainer Lacey Gaudet puts Jevian Toledo in the irons, and a 56 average speed figure keeps Skillian pace-competitive in a wide-open sprint. At 8/1 on the morning line, this is the kind of horse that exotics players should be using in the bottom of trifectas — a legitimate runner at a generous price.

Race 7

7:52 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Turf

The maiden optional claiming field on the turf route looks like a prime spot for a well-rated overlay — the top TrackWiz horse goes at 6/1 while lesser-rated horses draw shorter morning lines, creating an intriguing value scenario.

win8Orange RoadML 6/1

Orange Road tops the TrackWiz ratings in this nine-horse field at 82.71 — a comfortable margin over the second-ranked horse — and gets a 6/1 morning line that feels generous. Trainer McLean Robertson puts Jose A. Batista up for this mile-and-70-yard turf test, and an average speed figure of 55 is the best in the field. In a maiden route on grass, staying power matters as much as early foot, and Orange Road's profile — strong rating, solid speed figure, quality jockey — checks all the boxes.

place6Grey BullML 8/1

Grey Bull has the second-highest TrackWiz rating at 77.92 and brings an average speed figure of 54 — competitive with the best in the field. Trainer Jamie Ness, who also saddles Kerness K in Race 4, clearly knows how to get a horse ready, and Martin Chuan picks up the mount at 8/1. That price on a horse with a genuine second-best rating in a maiden turf route makes Grey Bull a strong candidate for exacta and trifecta coverage.

show7ToldML 8/1

Told rates third in the field at 68.54 and draws the high-profile services of Paco Lopez for trainer Blake Kelly — a pairing that tends to show up ready in these spot-play situations. The 8/1 morning line is fair value for a horse that trails the top two in the ratings but is meaningfully ahead of the rest of the field. In a route of ground where pace can collapse the field, Told rates as a reliable show play and a worthwhile piece in vertical exotic wagers.

Race 8

8:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A 5.5-furlong dirt claiming sprint where one horse stands out from the field by a wide margin in the TrackWiz ratings — and does so at a price that makes this arguably the best pure value bet on the entire card.

win7Sweet WinnerML 3/1

Sweet Winner tops this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — the same top rating Java Tales earned in Race 1, but here the competition is softer and the morning line sits at a juicy 3/1. Paco Lopez takes the mount for trainer Daniel Velazquez, and when Lopez is on your top-rated horse in a short sprint, you pay attention. A 7% career win rate is modest, but the rating differential here is so significant — over 22 points above the next-ranked horse — that this reads like a horse poised for a breakthrough in the right spot.

place6Re ElectionML 4/1

Re Election brings a 64.39 TrackWiz rating and a 33% career win rate — by far the best strike rate in this field — which signals a horse that knows how to close out races when the conditions are right. Trainer Cathal A. Lynch puts Jose A. Batista in the irons at 4/1, a combination that tends to arrive at the track with a plan. If Sweet Winner hits any trouble or gets pressured too hard early in this short sprint, Re Election is the horse most likely to swoop in and grab second.

show5They Call Me SueML 8/1

They Call Me Sue checks in with a 54.01 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field — and a 9% career win rate that, while modest, is boosted by the solid figure. Tony Wilson sends this runner out with Noel Herman in the irons at 8/1, making this an attractive show play and trifecta filler. In a field where several horses are clearly overmatched, finding a third-best rated horse at 8/1 is exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis is built to surface.

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Delaware Park has a well-rounded card today with something for every angle. Java Tales and Collection Day headline the free best bets, while Kerness K — our highest-rated horse on the card — is the marquee play for premium subscribers. Don't leave the later races to guesswork; the full TrackWiz breakdown gives you pace scenarios, value angles, and exotic ticket strategies for all eight races. Good luck at the windows.

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