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Delaware Park Picks & Predictions — August 29, 2026

August 29, 20268 racesAll Delaware Park picks

Results are in — see the official Delaware Park chart and payouts (our top pick won 5 of 8)→

Clear skies and a comfortable 75°F greet us at Delaware Park this Saturday afternoon — ideal conditions for both the dirt and turf surfaces, and exactly the kind of day where preparation separates the winners from the guessers. Eight races are on the menu, spanning maiden specials, allowances, and a trio of Starter Optional Claimers that promise some genuine intrigue.

The turf courses figure to be at their best with no weather interference in the picture, which matters quite a bit when you're looking at two of today's most interesting races landing on the green. Meanwhile, the dirt is fast and consistent — the kind of sealed, predictable surface where pace scenarios play out cleanly and speed figures hold their value.

TrackWiz has the full card broken down from Race 1 to Race 8. Three races are open to everyone, and the remaining five are available to subscribers — including our pace projections and exotic ticket strategies for the back half of the card.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden sprint that's essentially a blank-slate puzzle — most of this field is first-time out or carries no speed figure history, so TrackWiz ratings and trainer pedigree do the heavy lifting here.

win1Weekend StormML 9/5

Weekend Storm tops the TrackWiz ratings at 58.67 and opens at 9/5 on the morning line, suggesting the market agrees with our model. Michael Trombetta is a sharp conditioner who rarely sends an unprepared first-timer to the gate, and Daniel Centeno gives the connections a reliable pilot for the 5½-furlong dirt dash. In a field where most rivals lack any recorded speed figure, this horse's superior rating is a meaningful edge worth backing.

place5My Hometown GalML 5/2

My Hometown Gal is the only horse in this field who shows an average speed figure — clocking in at 54 — which provides a concrete baseline that most of her rivals simply can't match. Trainer Michael Gorham sends her out at 5/2 with Raul Mena up, and that speed-figure edge in a field of unknowns makes her a logical place contender who could easily outrun her modest odds.

show6Purely RandollML 7/2

Purely Randoll draws the 6-hole and comes in with a TrackWiz rating of 55.83 under Gary Capuano, a trainer who knows how to place horses effectively at Delaware. At 7/2 on the morning line, she's reasonably priced for exotic inclusion and rounds out a logical top three in a race where the back half of the field is largely unexposed.

Race 2

4:52 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The morning-line favorite here doesn't match up with the top TrackWiz rating — creating a compelling overlay situation with a horse going off at more than twice the favorite's odds.

win1Yes PicnicML 7/2

Yes Picnic is the clear TrackWiz top selection with a dominant rating of 86.35 — more than 12 points clear of the next-best horse — and backs it up with a stellar 37% career win rate, the highest in the field by a wide margin. Jamie Ness is a savvy trainer who knows how to spot his horses in the right spots, and Jaime Rodriguez gets the call in a Starter Optional Claiming mile that sets up well for a horse with this kind of consistent form. Going off at 7/2 while sporting the best numbers in the race makes Yes Picnic a clear value play.

place5Ruby RubyML 8/1

Ruby Ruby looks like a live longshot at 8/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 78.18 — the third-best in the field — and matches the top two in average speed at 53. A 14% career win rate tells you she doesn't always fire, but trainer John Kirby has her placed at a level where she can compete, and if Yes Picnic runs to her rating up front, Ruby Ruby could be picking up pieces late.

show2Back Wall BanditML 3/1

Back Wall Bandit is the morning-line favorite at 3/1 and posts a solid 74.23 TrackWiz rating with a 25% career win percentage, making her a dependable show proposition. Michael Simone trains her and she's been consistent enough in this company to land in the money, even if her overall rating suggests she's getting a bit of a market overreaction compared to Yes Picnic.

Race 3

5:24 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A full field of maidens going a mile on the turf, but one horse stands out so dramatically on the TrackWiz model that this race has the feel of a standout play hiding behind a crowded field.

win8Hotter Than FireML 2/1

Hotter Than Fire is virtually lapping this field on the TrackWiz model, posting an 88.54 rating — more than 22 points ahead of the second-best horse — while going off at just 2/1 on the morning line, which actually looks fair given the talent gap. Trainer Jamie Ness is an accomplished conditioner on the Delaware circuit, and Jaime Rodriguez is one of the meet's most reliable riders. In a 13-horse maiden field on turf, this horse's numbers scream standout play.

place9Golden EllieML 5/1

Golden Ellie checks in as the second-best rated horse in the field at 65.77 and shows an average speed figure of 53 to go with her turf pedigree. Trainer Michael Gorham sends her out at 5/1 with Madeline Rowland in the irons, and in a wide-open second tier, she has the profile of a horse that can grab a piece while the top pick handles the heavy lifting.

show12She's a Canny LassML 8/5

She's a Canny Lass is the 8/5 morning-line second choice with a TrackWiz rating of 61.92, third-best in the field, and Michael Simone conditions her with Jaime Rodriguez up — the same pilot going in Race 3 on Hotter Than Fire (note: Rodriguez has a mount here as well). Her odds suggest public support, and in a mile turf maiden, she's priced to be a factor even if she can't match the top horse's raw rating.

The first three races on today's card are where we start building our foundation, and there's a clear theme running through them: horses who project well on their best surface with solid underlying numbers. Weekend Storm opens the card in a 5½-furlong maiden special weight on dirt — a race that often rewards the horse who shows the cleanest early energy in sprint maidens. Over on the turf, Hotter Than Fire is our highest-rated free pick of the day with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating in a mile maiden claimer — that figure stands out in this field, and the morning line of 2/1 suggests the market agrees. In between, Yes Picnic brings a strong 86.35 rating into the Starter Optional Claiming mile, a spot where class consistency tends to matter enormously.

With the turf in excellent shape on a dry, clear afternoon, horses with proven grass form are getting a green light from us today. Keep that in mind as you work through the free selections — surface suitability is one of the cleanest edges available in a card like this.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:56 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This maiden claiming sprint features a sharp ratings divergence — TrackWiz's top pick goes off at 8/1 while the morning-line favorite is rated significantly lower, setting up a potential overlay situation in the first premium race of the card.

win3Squared CircleML 8/1

Squared Circle is an eye-catching TrackWiz top pick at 79.79 — a rating that towers over the rest of this maiden claiming field — while the morning line has him priced at a generous 8/1. That's a significant disconnect between public perception and our model, and those are exactly the spots worth targeting. Trainer Nesvil Hernan Bailon sends him out with an average speed figure of 53, and if he runs to his rating, he'll be well clear of a field that doesn't offer much depth.

place6Little SnuffML 3/2

Little Snuff opens as the 3/2 morning-line favorite, and with a TrackWiz rating of 59.17 — second-best in the field — that public confidence isn't unfounded. Julio Hernandez takes the mount for trainer Andrew Simoff, and while our model prefers Squared Circle on top, Little Snuff's market position suggests she'll be competitive enough to hit the board.

show5To EternityML 9/5

To Eternity comes in at 9/5 with a 58.67 TrackWiz rating, essentially identical to Little Snuff's number, making the third spot a coin flip between these two. Trainer Michelle Castillo and jockey Eliseo Ruiz keep the connections simple, and in a six-horse maiden field, the odds suggest To Eternity will be involved at the finish even if the top two dominate.

Race 5

6:28 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 fur · Turf

The morning-line favorite isn't our top pick in this allowance sprint on the turf — TrackWiz's model finds a slight edge with a horse going off at more than double the chalk's odds, setting up a potential value situation in one of the day's most competitive races.

win7Pure OctaneML 3/1

Pure Octane tops the TrackWiz model at 87.08, just edging the morning-line favorite, and posts a 25% career win rate that shows he knows how to close out a race. Trainer McLean Robertson places him here at 3/1 — solid value given the rating — and Julio Hernandez is one of the sharper tactical riders on the Delaware circuit. With an average speed of 53 on turf and a model that says he's the best horse, there's real merit in siding with him over the public choice.

place1EastbostonbennyML 6/5

Eastbostonbenny is the 6/5 morning-line chalk and carries a 86.05 TrackWiz rating that's barely a point behind our top pick — so this isn't a case of fading a bad horse, it's about finding value. Steve Klesaris conditions him and Jaime Rodriguez rides, a strong combination, and his 55 average speed figure on the grass is legitimate. He's a must-use in exactas and a safe place bet even if Pure Octane gets the nod on top.

show4Rye DiggitydogML 5/2

Rye Diggitydog might be the most interesting horse in this race from a pure speed figure standpoint — his 57 average speed on turf is the joint-highest in the field alongside Luca Machine and Shear Magic, and he opens at a fair 5/2. Trainer Hugh McMahon fits him well at the 5-furlong turf sprint distance, and Jorge Hernandez gives him a capable handler. At 67.41 on the TrackWiz scale, he's a legitimate third option and a nice exotic play.

Race 6

7:00 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Three horses are bunched tightly at the top of the TrackWiz model in this 5½-furlong dirt Starter Optional Claiming race, making it a fascinating race to dissect — but the slight ratings edge and a 31% career win rate point toward one clear selection.

win1PerugiaML 9/5

Perugia tops the TrackWiz model at 88.17 and backs it up with a 31% career win rate — the highest among the top three contenders — which tells you this horse doesn't just show up, she finishes. Jamie Ness saddles her for the second time on today's card, demonstrating real confidence in his barn's form, and Jaime Rodriguez gets the return call in the irons. At 9/5, she's reasonably priced for a horse with these credentials in a Starter Optional Claiming sprint.

place6RitabookML 3/1

Ritabook comes in with a 87.08 TrackWiz rating — only a single point behind the top pick — and trainer Victor Carrasco Jr. has her in a familiar spot with Jose Batista aboard. Her 19% career win rate is solid, and her 55 average speed figure matches the top contenders stride for stride. If pace shapes up hot up front, Ritabook has the profile to come running late and grab a piece.

show4Miguel's BelleML 7/2

Miguel's Belle rates third in the field at 82.38 and shows the same 55 average speed figure as Ritabook, making her numbers almost interchangeable with the place pick. Michael Simone trains her — he's had multiple live horses on today's card — and Cipriano Gil keeps the ride. At 7/2, she's a fair price for a horse who has the ability to land in the top three in a competitive but manageable field.

Race 7

7:32 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The biggest field of the day — 15 horses going 1 1/16 miles on the turf in a Starter Optional Claiming — and three horses at the top of the TrackWiz model are separated by just about four points, guaranteeing a competitive finish.

win10Tiz ComplexML 5/2

Tiz Complex leads the TrackWiz model at 87.81 in this sprawling field and goes postward at 5/2 — a fair price for the top-rated horse going a route on turf. Trainer Cathal Lynch knows how to prepare grass horses, and Vincent Cheminaud, a strong turf pilot, gets the mount. His 9% career win rate looks modest, but in routes on the lawn where pace scenarios matter more than raw aggression, his rating suggests he consistently runs his race.

place12Will of VictoryML 2/1

Will of Victory rates 85.98 — just shy of the top pick — and comes in with a 25% career win rate that gives her a clear edge in terms of closing out races over Tiz Complex. She opens at 2/1 as the morning-line choice, which suggests the market is more bullish on her than our model, and Matilda Burnham gives trainer Mario Lopez a capable rider for the 1 1/16-mile turf trip. Solid place play in any exotic combination.

show9RylnnslookingluckyML 9/2

Rylnnslookinglucky sits third on the TrackWiz model at 83.91 — only four points off the leader in a 15-horse field, which is a meaningful concentration at the top — and opens at 9/2 with Julio Hernandez aboard for trainer Kenneth Cox. A 6% career win rate is low, but his model rating says he consistently puts in quality efforts without always getting the win. In a big field with potential pace chaos, a horse that runs steady figures often finds the show spot.

Race 8

8:04 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a maiden claiming sprint on the dirt where the morning-line chalk and our top TrackWiz pick align, but a pair of overlooked rivals rated just underneath offer real exotic value — especially one priced at 8/1.

win2Uncle ZebML 2/1

Uncle Zeb is the TrackWiz top pick at 87.34 and the 2/1 morning-line favorite, and in this case the public and the model are in agreement. Trainer Juan Bacallao Vega sends him out with a 52 average speed figure, and Paul Luna gets the mount in what shapes up as a straightforward 5½-furlong dirt sprint. In maiden claiming company, a horse with this kind of model advantage is exactly the type you lean on to anchor your tickets.

place6Little JerryML 8/1

Little Jerry checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 — nearly identical to Bold Statement's 78.68 — but it's his 53 average speed figure, the highest in the field, that gives him the edge as our place selection. Trainer Michael Gorham conditions him and Jorge Hernandez rides, a capable combination for a 5½-furlong sprint. At 8/1 on the morning line, he's a genuine overlay candidate for the place slot and worth including in exacta and trifecta keys.

show1Bold StatementML 3/1

Bold Statement rounds out the top three with a 78.68 TrackWiz rating and opens at 3/1 — the second choice in the market. Michael Simone trains him and Gavin Ashton gets the call, and while his rating slots him below Uncle Zeb and Little Jerry in our model, his odds make him a solid show bet and a natural exotic wheel in a race where the top two handle the heavy lifting.

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Bottom line: Delaware Park is offering a well-rounded eight-race card under perfect conditions, and our top free plays — Hotter Than Fire, Yes Picnic, and Weekend Storm — give every reader a strong starting point. Subscribers get the rest, including our longshot angle on Squared Circle and the full exotic ticket breakdown. Good luck out there — race smart.

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