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Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — August 28, 2026

August 28, 20269 racesAll Colonial Downs picks

Results are in — see the official Colonial Downs chart and payouts (our top pick won 2 of 9)→

Colonial Downs is dealing out a 9-race Friday card on August 28, and the setup is about as turf-friendly as it gets — seven of nine races are run on the grass, and with cloudy skies keeping temperatures in the mid-80s, conditions should hold up nicely throughout the afternoon. No scorching sun baking the course, no rain softening it up. Expect a consistent surface and pace scenarios that should play fair for closers and pressers alike.

The card is a nice mix of claiming, allowance, and maiden company, with distances ranging from a quick 5-furlong sprint to a route at 1 1/8 miles. Whether you're looking for a sharp single or building out a multi-race sequence, there's plenty to work with. Our TrackWiz analysis has been through every race, and there are a few spots today where the morning line looks a little generous — always a good sign for value hunters.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open turf sprint opener where one horse carries a massive ratings edge over a field of modest claimers — but several rivals are capable of spoiling the party at generous prices.

win4ThisishowwedoitML 5/2

Thisishowwedoit is the standout in this field and it's not particularly close on paper. The TrackWiz rating of 87.81 towers over the competition, and a 33% career win rate is elite for the claiming ranks — one-in-three lifetime trips to the winner's circle speaks for itself. Declan Cannon gets the call and this 5 1/2-furlong turf distance should suit a horse with that kind of punch. At 5/2 on the morning line, this is near fair value for the class of the field.

place7Diane LeeML 3/1

Diane Lee at 3/1 is the natural backup here, posting a 72.46 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in the field. Horacio Karamanos is an experienced hand in the mid-Atlantic circuit and the 56 average speed figure gives this one the raw numbers to compete. The 11% career win rate is modest, but place finishes have been a recurring theme, making her a safe exotics anchor.

show2Dame's RocketML 6/1

Dame's Rocket is an interesting third piece at 6/1, trained by Mark Casse — one of the sharper conditioners in the game — and the 61.33 rating and 18% career win mark show she belongs. Samuel Marin has been in good form, and for exacta and trifecta players, the price makes her a worthwhile inclusion underneath the top two.

Race 2

5:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

An evening favorite dominates the ratings in this 5-furlong turf claimer, but an 11-horse field always introduces chaos, and a pair of mid-priced contenders could offer real value in the exacta.

win3Blessings BestowedML EVN

Blessings Bestowed opens as the even-money morning-line favorite and backs it up with a 90.0 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark we see across the entire card today. Trainer Roland P. Clement III keeps Ubardo Casique in the irons, a combination that clearly has confidence in this runner. The 5-furlong turf distance is a sharp test, but this horse's numbers suggest the class edge is real. At even money you're not getting value, but you're getting the most likely winner.

place6Make It QuickML 6/1

Make It Quick at 6/1 is the value play in this spot, carrying a solid 73.94 rating and a 10% career win mark in a field where several rivals are well below that threshold. Mychel Sanchez is one of the sharper jockeys on the Colonial circuit, and trainer John Robb knows how to spot a spot. For bettors building an exacta around the favorite, Make It Quick is the most sensible second choice.

show1Go to BingoML 9/2

Go to Bingo opens at 9/2 with a 68.36 rating — third best in the field — and brings back Daniel Centeno, who has been getting live mounts lately. The 5% career win rate is admittedly thin, but this is a turf sprint where pace and position can overcome raw numbers, and the horse's profile fits a late-running role. Trifecta players should have this one onside.

Race 3

5:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Two horses separate themselves from the pack in this 1 1/16-mile turf claimer, setting up a potential match race at the top — though the morning line suggests the public may be undervaluing the real class of the field.

win5Band On the RunML 9/2

Band On the Run is our top selection at 9/2, carrying an 84.9 TrackWiz rating that edges out favorite Sun Cross — a number that suggests the morning line may not fully reflect the true pecking order here. Trainer Leanne Hester has Jareth Loveberry up, and at a route distance on turf, patient closers with this profile tend to reward. A 11% career win rate is steady for the claiming level, and the pace setup over a mile and a sixteenth could set up perfectly for a late run.

place3Sun CrossML 2/1

Sun Cross opened as the 2/1 favorite, and a TrackWiz rating of 81.89 confirms there's real substance behind that price. Jevian Toledo is among the most dependable jockeys in this region when given a horse with tactical speed, and Brittany Russell conditions this one — a barn that fires at a strong clip at Colonial. The 12% career win rate at the route distance is respectable, and finishing second or better is a very realistic outcome.

show6Dawn After DawnML 7/2

Dawn After Dawn at 7/2 rounds out our vertical with a 62.86 rating and Michael Stidham's typically tidy barn management behind her. The 7% career win rate is light, but Samuel Marin gives this runner a chance to sit off a potentially honest pace and pick up the pieces. In a race where the top two have legitimate shots to battle it out, a stalker profile makes this one a smart show and trifecta inclusion.

Our first three races are fully unlocked for every reader, and they paint an interesting picture. The free portion of the card is all turf, all claiming company — three different distances giving you a sprint, a short sprint, and a mile-plus route. Thisishowwedoit (R1, 5/2 morning line, TrackWiz rating 87.81) kicks things off over 5 1/2 furlongs on the grass. In Race 2, Blessings Bestowed comes in at even money — that's a short price, but when our model spits out a 90.0 rating, you at least understand why the market agrees. And in Race 3, Band On the Run stretches to 1 1/16 miles at 9/2, where our rating of 84.9 suggests there's a legitimate edge if the pace scenario sets up right.

One thread connecting all three free picks: they're all turf runners on a day where the surface should be playing consistently. No dramatic bias toward speed or closers has been flagged — which means the horses that figure best on paper have a clean shot to deliver. Take advantage of the free looks before diving into the premium card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:03 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

This 6-furlong dirt allowance features a handful of horses with imposing win percentages, but the TrackWiz ratings tell a cleaner story — one runner stands out at a price that makes this a playable spot.

win4SkillianML 9/2

Skillian is the TrackWiz top selection with an 84.9 rating and a career win percentage of 50% — that's an extraordinary hit rate for any level of competition. Jevian Toledo gets the mount for trainer Lacey Gaudet, and the 9/2 morning line represents a mild overlay given what the numbers are saying. At 6 furlongs on dirt, a horse with that kind of winning consistency should be able to find the front or sit just off the pace and fire.

place6Village PersonML 3/1

Village Person at 3/1 is no slouch — a 71.43 TrackWiz rating and a 42% career win percentage make this one of the more accomplished horses in the field. Steve Klesaris is a savvy trainer who tends to place horses well, and Jorge Ruiz knows the Colonial circuit. The 56 average speed figure is the best in the field and could translate to a pace advantage in a 6-furlong sprint.

show2Kalea BayML 5/1

Kalea Bay at 5/1 gives the Brittany Russell barn another live runner in today's card. A 69.75 TrackWiz rating and 16% career win mark are respectable at the allowance level, and Sheldon Russell — a frequent partner for this trainer — keeps the ride. With a speed figure of 53 she may need some help from the pace scenario, but at 5/1 she's a legitimate trifecta piece.

Race 5

6:35 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden optional claiming sprint on dirt — nearly the entire field is winless and several are first-time starters or lightly raced, making this one of the trickier puzzles on today's card.

win10Tiz GeneralML 5/1

Tiz General earns the top slot with a 74.82 TrackWiz rating — clearly the class of this maiden field — and trainer Carlos Munoz puts Ubardo Casique in the irons, a booking that signals confidence. The 55 average speed figure is competitive for this level, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value for a horse whose numbers lead the field by a meaningful margin. In maiden races, the horse who shows the most consistency in workouts and preparation often takes the prize, and this one checks the right boxes.

place4Thomson FallsML 3/1

Thomson Falls at 3/1 is the public's choice and carries a 56.67 rating — close to our top pick but without the speed figure data to confirm raw ability. Trainer Horacio De Paz and jockey Samuel Marin is a pairing worth noting, and the 3/1 morning line suggests the barn is confident. In maiden races, connections matter as much as past figures, and this horse is clearly well-regarded.

show3Freedom HallML 7/2

Freedom Hall at 7/2 gives Michael Trombetta another live runner today, and Paco Lopez is exactly the type of jockey you want in a competitive maiden field. The 55.83 TrackWiz rating and 55 average speed figure are nearly identical to the place pick, making this race very hard to separate at the top — which is exactly why including Freedom Hall in exactas and trifectas is the right move.

Race 6

7:06 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

An 11-horse maiden special weight at a mile and a sixteenth on turf, where the morning-line favorite carries a short price but the TrackWiz ratings suggest a wide-open race with significant value lurking underneath.

win2ResortML 8/1

Resort opens at 8/1 — well above the morning-line favorite Blond Roast — but the TrackWiz rating of 79.79 leads this field and makes a compelling case for an overlay. Trainer Michael Trombetta and jockey Mychel Sanchez is a combination that routinely fires in maiden turf routes at this level. All horses in this race are winless, which flattens the field, but Resort's profile for a route on grass is the most encouraging in the group.

place3CrawfordML 10/1

Crawford at 10/1 is a legitimate value play in this spot, with a 64.09 TrackWiz rating that ranks third in the field and a booking of Samuel Marin for trainer Arnaud Delacour — an outfit with a strong record with first- and second-time starters on turf routes. At double-digit odds in a maiden field, this is exactly the type of horse that can win or run a big second at a price that makes exactas very lucrative.

show8Mischievous TwinsML 15/1

Mischievous Twins is a sleeper here at 15/1 with a 62.8 TrackWiz rating, third-highest among the selections in this race. Carlos Eduardo Lopez takes the mount for Jamie Ness, and a 54 average speed figure is right in line with the bulk of this field. In an 11-horse maiden race, prices like 15/1 on a horse with legitimate form deserve attention in your trifecta coverage.

Race 7

7:38 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A massive 14-horse optional claiming field on turf going a flat mile — one horse's ratings stand well apart from a muddled pack, but the big field and generous prices open the door for exotics players.

win4King CoveeML 5/1

King Covee is the clear TrackWiz top selection here with an 84.17 rating, separating himself meaningfully from the rest of a deep optional claiming field. Taylor Kingsley gets the mount for trainer Phil Schoenthal, and while the 7% career win percentage looks light, the raw performance data paints a more optimistic picture for today's spot. At 5/1, this is a legitimate value — you're getting a top-rated horse at a price that typically reflects a mid-tier contender. In a route on turf, pace and position will matter, and King Covee's speed figure of 56 leads all of our picks in this race.

place8PromissioML 8/1

Promissio at 8/1 is an intriguing secondary play — an 8% career win rate is modest, but the 68.54 TrackWiz rating ranks second among our picks and the Lacey Gaudet barn has been placing horses well all summer. Carlos Eduardo Lopez inherits a horse that could settle nicely in a 14-runner turf mile and make a sustained run into the stretch. At 8/1, there's real money to be made if this one runs second.

show2TimshelML 12/1

Timshel at 12/1 catches the eye as a longshot with substance — a 58.49 TrackWiz rating and a remarkable 50% career win percentage for trainer Kathleen O'Connell. That win rate in a horse carrying 12/1 morning-line odds is genuinely puzzling, and it could reflect a recent layoff or class context that TrackWiz's rating adjusts for. Jareth Loveberry is a jockey who consistently gets horses into good positions in traffic, and trifecta players should absolutely include Timshel at this price.

Race 8

8:10 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

The starter allowance nightcap features a bona fide top selection sitting at a low price and a deep field on turf — but a trio of horses rated in the 70s and 80s sets up a genuine battle for the superfecta spots.

win3The BrigadeML 2/1

The Brigade opens at 2/1 and earns it with the highest TrackWiz rating on tonight's card at 88.54. Mark Casse is among the finest conditioners in North American racing, and Samuel Marin provides a polished pilot in what should be a pace-honest 1 1/8-mile turf test. A 22% career win percentage is solid at this level, and the 55 average speed figure is comfortably competitive. Yes, 2/1 is thin, but when a horse's numbers are this decisive, the chalk can still be the smart play.

place6LonghiML 9/2

Longhi at 9/2 is a legitimate threat to beat the favorite outright — an 84.45 TrackWiz rating and 33% career win percentage make this one of the most accomplished horses in today's entire card. Jorge Ruiz takes the mount for W. Robert Bailes, and in a route on turf where pace can scramble, a horse with this win rate and these ratings can easily run past a short-priced favorite. At 9/2, Longhi represents real place value.

show2The TownML 8/1

The Town at 8/1 is the value anchor in this race — a 75.82 TrackWiz rating and 30% career win percentage are credentials that would make this horse a top selection in many other races on this card. Mychel Sanchez picks up the mount for Sandino Hernandez Jr., and a 54 average speed figure keeps this one right in the mix. If the top two hit the board as expected, The Town is the most logical third-place finisher at a price that makes trifecta investment very worthwhile.

Race 9

8:42 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Tonight's turf mile maiden claimer goes 14-deep, and while two horses dominate the TrackWiz ratings, the sheer size of the field ensures chaos — making exacta and trifecta construction more important than picking a winner outright.

win2KrakenML 2/1

Kraken is the top-rated horse in tonight's finale with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the joint-highest mark on the entire card today. Samuel Marin takes the mount for Joseph Orseno, a Hall of Fame-caliber trainer who knows how to win maiden routes. The 56 average speed figure leads all horses in this race and the 2/1 morning line, while short, reflects what the data is already telling us. In a field of maidens, the horse with the best numbers often wins, and Kraken's profile is as clean as it gets.

place6Red SeaML 5/2

Red Sea at 5/2 is the public's second choice and backs it up with a 79.2 TrackWiz rating and a field-best 57 average speed figure — the fastest raw number among all 14 runners. Horacio Karamanos gets the mount for A. Ferris Allen III, and on a turf mile where speed can be an asset in the final turn, that raw figure matters. If the pace comes back to the field, Red Sea is perfectly positioned to collect a big check.

show9Shirley's BoyzML 5/1

Shirley's Boyz at 5/1 completes the vertical with a 70.28 TrackWiz rating — third-best in this wide field — and Sheldon Russell in the irons for Tim Girten. The 52 average speed figure is a tick below the top two picks, but in a 14-horse maiden claimer, things get messy and a closer with this profile can find room late. At 5/1, the show value is strong and trifecta players should make this one a cornerstone in their bottom half.

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Bottom line: Colonial Downs is serving up a turf-dominated card on a benign afternoon, with Blessings Bestowed standing out as the marquee free pick and The Brigade looming as the premium card's top-rated horse. Three free race previews are live and ready to read right now — and if you want the full 9-race breakdown, pace projections, and exotic ticket builds, your complete guide is waiting at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there, and let's cash some tickets.

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