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Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — August 27, 2026

August 27, 20268 racesAll Colonial Downs picks

Colonial Downs is rolling out an eight-race card on Thursday, August 27th, and the setup is genuinely interesting. Overcast skies and a comfortable 84°F keep conditions mild — no scorching heat to worry about, and the turf course should be in solid shape without any recent rain to soften things up.

Five of the eight races are contested on the turf, which makes grass form, breeding, and pace scenario the dominant themes today. The dirt sprints sprinkled into the card offer a change of pace, but if you're building multi-race tickets, turf versatility is going to be your best friend.

Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers, with our top picks already locked in. The back half of the card is where things get really spicy — a pair of allowance turf routes and a dirt allowance optional claimer that could produce some serious overlays.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden claimer on the Colonial turf where the morning line favorite carries a commanding TrackWiz rating edge — but at 3/2, you're not getting paid much to be right in a field full of firsters.

win4I Love InesML 3/2

I Love Ines draws the morning line favoritism at 3/2 for a reason — her TrackWiz rating of 89.27 towers over every other entrant in this field by a significant margin. Trainer Angel M. Rodriguez already saddles two horses today, which signals stable confidence, and this filly's avg speed figure of 56 leads the field among horses with recorded numbers. In a maiden field where most rivals are making their debut or have shown little, the class gap here is real and hard to ignore.

place8Feather WishML 7/2

Feather Wish hits the board at 7/2 on the morning line and backs it up with a TrackWiz rating of 65.04 — second-best in the field and nearly 25 points clear of the show pick. Jorge Ruiz gets the call, and on a Colonial turf sprint where pace can get messy, a horse with a rating this separated from mid-pack has a strong case to hit the exacta.

show3Lucky LisML 9/2

Lucky Lis at 9/2 is the third wheel here but earns her spot with a rating of 64.76 — essentially a dead heat with Feather Wish in the TrackWiz model and the best avg speed figure in the field at 57. Jean Gregor Briceno picks up the mount for Jose Magana, and in a maiden turf sprint where pace shapes can be unpredictable, having the speed-figure leader as your show horse is a reasonable exotic anchor.

Race 2

5:02 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

This maiden special weight on the Colonial dirt sets up as a two-horse battle at the top of the TrackWiz ratings, with a significant talent gap between the top pair and the rest of the field.

win5Riva RedML 9/2

Riva Red comes in at 9/2 on the morning line but owns the top TrackWiz rating in this race at 84.90 — a significant 27-point jump over the second-ranked Controlling. That kind of rating separation in a maiden sprint is the kind of edge the model was built to find, and Hamilton A. Smith sends her out with Mychel J. Sanchez in the irons, a rider who knows how to break from the gate on dirt. The avg speed figure of 54 is competitive in this group, and the 9/2 morning line represents genuine overlay potential given her model edge.

place2ControllingML 5/2

Controlling for trainer H. Graham Motion opens at 5/2 and holds the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 57.50. Motion is a sharp conditioner who knows how to spot a horse, and Samuel Marin — who has multiple looks at Colonial this card — takes the mount. The avg speed figure of 54 is right in line with the pace of this group, and Controlling's profile screams typical MSW closer that hits the board regularly before breaking through.

show1Charming CharlotteML 7/2

Charming Charlotte at 7/2 rounds out the top three in the TrackWiz ratings at 55.83, and she gets Paco Lopez — arguably the most accomplished rider in today's card — from trainer Fausto Gutierrez. In a seven-furlong dirt maiden where pace pressures can shuffle the deck late, having a Lopez-ridden horse with a competitive rating in your show spot is an entirely defensible exotic play.

Race 3

5:34 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A sprawling 13-horse maiden optional claimer going six furlongs on Colonial's dirt — bunched ratings throughout the top tier make this one of the trickier puzzles on today's card.

win7Jesse MarieML 9/2

Jesse Marie opens at 9/2 and leads the field with the top TrackWiz rating of 54.17 in a race where nothing separates cleanly. Trainer Blake Kelly sends her out with Kevin Gomez, and the avg speed figure of 55 is the highest among horses with recorded numbers in this group. In a wide-open field where the top six ratings are clustered within just a few points of each other, Jesse Marie's marginal edge combined with a pace-friendly post at 7 gives her the nod as our top selection.

place4PiggybunzML 5/1

Piggybunz at 5/1 ties for second in the TrackWiz ratings at 53.33 and gets the Sheldon Russell-Brittany T. Russell barn combination — a husband-and-wife team that knows how to win together. While no avg speed figure is on file, the morning line nod and the in-house jockey booking suggest the connections like where this filly is at. She's a natural backup in the exacta for a race that could easily flip.

show5She's the MoamentML 5/1

She's the Moament also comes in at 5/1 with a matching 53.33 TrackWiz rating and draws the five post in a race where early pace will be critical. Jeiron Barbosa takes the mount for Richard P. Sillaman, and while speed figures aren't on file, the shared odds and shared rating with Piggybunz means these two essentially form the logical top half of your show tickets. In a race this compressed, stacking both in exotics is a reasonable approach.

The first three races give us a nice warm-up sample of what today's card has to offer. I Love Ines draws our attention in Race 1 — a turf maiden claimer at 5½ furlongs where our TrackWiz rating of 89.27 stands well above the field, and the 3/2 morning line suggests the market agrees. Short price, but the numbers back it up.

Race 2 shifts to dirt for a 7-furlong maiden special weight, and Riva Red emerges as our top selection at 9/2 on the morning line — that's potential value if the crowd overlooks her. Then Race 3 brings us Jesse Marie in a maiden optional claimer, a race where our model sees a closer field and more uncertainty, so ticket construction matters more than a single-minded win bet.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The first locked-field turf claiming event of the day throws up a genuine value bomb — our top-rated horse opens at 12/1, creating what could be the best overlay on the entire Colonial card.

win2Vaya JeffeML 12/1

Vaya Jeffe is the TrackWiz value play of the afternoon — a 12/1 morning line price on a horse carrying the top rating in the field at 73.96, which is nearly 4 points clear of Irish Gent. The 12% career win rate is honest work in a claiming field, and trainer Anthony Farrior has Jeiron Barbosa in the irons over 1 1/16 miles of Colonial turf — a distance that rewards horses who can sustain a pace. When the model's top-rated horse is also the overlay, that's when you pay attention.

place1Irish GentML 7/2

Irish Gent opens at 7/2 and holds the second-best TrackWiz rating at 69.76 with a 9% career win rate that's respectable for this claiming level. Carlos Montalvo rides for Sandino R. Hernandez Jr., and the avg speed figure of 55 is among the better marks in this field. He's got the profile of a horse who hits the board in spots like this — a natural place candidate behind the longer-priced top pick.

show10AlakanML 4/1

Alakan at 4/1 for trainer H. Graham Motion — appearing twice on today's card — brings a career win rate of 11% and a solid 55.46 TrackWiz rating. Jose E. Vargas gets the call and the avg speed figure of 54 is competitive in this group. Motion is sharp on turf, and a 4/1 shot with a top-flight trainer in the show spot of your exotics is a sensible hedge in what shapes up as a pace-contested affair.

Race 5

6:36 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

An allowance turf sprint at 5 1/2 furlongs where the top of the TrackWiz ratings is bunched between 72 and 79 — the pace scenario could matter as much as raw ability in this one.

win7Cuda CutieML 6/1

Cuda Cutie opens at 6/1 but sits atop the TrackWiz model at 79.64 — the best mark in an allowance field that has some legitimate horses. A 28% career win rate is elite for this level, and trainer Aaron M. West sends her out with Emmanuel Esquivel, who has a mount on today's card. The avg speed figure of 57 ties for the field's best, and a horse with a top rating, a top speed figure, and a near-30% win rate at 6/1 is exactly the kind of play TrackWiz analysis is built to identify.

place4NoquestionaboutitML 9/2

Noquestionaboutit at 9/2 is a fascinating secondary target — a 27% career win rate and a 76.71 TrackWiz rating for the Michael J. Trombetta barn, which also saddles top horses on this card. Jorge Ruiz picks up the mount, and the avg speed figure of 57 matches the field's best. This is a horse who wins his share and should be all over your exacta tickets behind Cuda Cutie.

show1Big EarnML 5/2

Big Earn comes in at 5/2 as the morning line favorite despite ranking third in the TrackWiz model at 72.47. What he brings to the table is a 20% career win rate and Paco Lopez in the irons — one of the most productive riders in today's card. The avg speed figure of 56 is a tick below the top pair, but trainer Michael J. Trombetta's presence on both this horse and Noquestionaboutit is a stable worth respecting in the show slot.

Race 6

7:06 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Slewperstitus is the class of this allowance optional claiming field and the morning line makes no secret of it — the question is whether the 8/5 chalk delivers enough value to structure the right ticket.

win4SlewperstitusML 8/5

Slewperstitus is the dominant figure in this race by almost every measure — a 89.12 TrackWiz rating that's more than 20 points clear of the second-best horse, a 30% career win rate that screams consistent performer, and the 8/5 morning line reflects the market's agreement. Jevian Toledo rides for W. Robert Bailes, and while the avg speed figure of 55 is not the field's highest, the combination of rating dominance and winning percentage makes this as close to a single-horse race as you'll find today. The price is short but the case is strong.

place3Sporting LadyML 6/1

Sporting Lady at 6/1 is where the value lives underneath the favorite — a 68.99 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in the field, a 12% career win rate on the board, and an avg speed figure of 57 that actually leads the entire field. Samuel Marin rides for Keri Brion, who has a productive book today, and at 6/1 in the place slot of your exacta she's a legitimate overlay behind the short-priced chalk.

show2JustinquesoML 4/1

Justinqueso at 4/1 for trainer Ian R. Wilkes rounds out a logical trifecta bottom with a 64.77 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win rate. Declan Cannon gets the call, and the avg speed figure of 57 matches Sporting Lady as the field's top mark. Wilkes is a sharp conditioner and in a six-furlong dirt allowance optional claiming race where pace can clear the path, a horse with elite speed figures at a reasonable price is worth stacking in your tris.

Race 7

7:38 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A loaded Colonial turf allowance going 1 1/16 miles with three horses clustered between 83 and 89 in the TrackWiz ratings — expect a genuine pace battle and a contested stretch run.

win5Banksy'sML 9/5

Banksy's opens at 9/5 and owns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.83, which is remarkable in an allowance field this deep. Trainer David Fawkes sends him out with Jorge Ruiz, and despite a 14% career win rate that's modest on paper, the model suggests he belongs at the top of this order. The avg speed figure of 54 is solid on Colonial turf, and at a mile and a sixteenth, horses that rate well in the model tend to prove it when the pace gets honest in the stretch.

place2Bourbon DreamML 4/1

Bourbon Dream at 4/1 is the horse giving Banksy's the most to think about — an 83.93 TrackWiz rating that's only 5 points off the top and a 20% career win rate that projects well at this level. Paco Lopez takes the mount for Fausto Gutierrez, who is clearly having a productive meet at Colonial. The avg speed figure of 54 matches several rivals, but having Lopez in the irons on a horse this close to the top of the ratings is a meaningful upgrade in a race where trips often decide things.

show3Six O ClockML 7/2

Six O Clock at 7/2 for Hall of Fame trainer Arnaud Delacour comes in with a 72.20 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate — the kind of consistent performer who shows up in the money more often than not. Mychel J. Sanchez is a capable turf rider, and in a deep 10-horse field going a route of ground on Colonial's turf, a 25% winner at a fair price is exactly what you want anchoring your trifecta third leg.

Race 8

8:10 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A 12-horse maiden claimer on Colonial's turf going 5 1/2 furlongs — the top TrackWiz rating leads by a comfortable margin, but a cluster of competitive horses in the 55-60 range makes the exotics genuinely interesting.

win4Queen of WandsML 7/2

Queen of Wands opens at 7/2 and leads the field with a 67.78 TrackWiz rating — nearly 8 points clear of the next-best horse. Trainer Michael J. Trombetta, who is one of the busiest and sharpest conditioners on today's card, gets Paco Lopez in the irons — the top jockey booking of the afternoon. The avg speed figure of 55 is competitive in this group, and in a maiden turf sprint where consistency of preparation matters, the Trombetta-Lopez combination is worth following.

place10Blue IceML 5/1

Blue Ice at 5/1 holds the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 59.88 for trainer Abraham Gardea, with Samuel Marin picking up the mount — his third or fourth live look on today's card. The avg speed figure of 54 is right in the mix for a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint, and the 5/1 morning line on a horse this close to the top of the ratings in the place slot is a natural exacta target.

show7Crab MentalityML 4/1

Crab Mentality draws the 4/1 morning line for Keri Brion — a trainer having an active Colonial meet — with Taylor Kingsley in the irons. The 59.48 TrackWiz rating is just a fraction behind Blue Ice for third on the depth chart, and the avg speed figure of 55 ties Queen of Wands for the field lead among horses with recorded numbers. In a wide-enough field like this, stacking both Blue Ice and Crab Mentality as your show options in the trifecta is a smart approach.

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Today's Colonial Downs card is a turf-lover's playground with enough dirt action and pace dynamics to keep every type of bettor engaged. Our best bets start with I Love Ines in Race 1 and Riva Red in Race 2, but the real fireworks are in the premium races — especially that 12/1 longshot angle in Race 4. Full analysis, pace projections, and exotic plays are waiting for subscribers at /pricing. Good luck at the windows.

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