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Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — August 23, 2026

August 23, 20268 racesAll Colonial Downs picks

It's a gorgeous Sunday afternoon at Colonial Downs — clear skies, 81 degrees, and firm turf conditions that should have every grass runner flying. Eight races are on tap, and with six of them contested on the Colonial turf course, today is absolutely a turf handicapper's paradise.

The card opens with a run of maiden and claiming turf sprints before escalating to a pair of allowance tests that figure to produce the day's best performances. Dirt bettors aren't forgotten either — Races 4 and 7 head to the main track, giving us a nice two-surface card to work with.

Whether you're building multi-race tickets or hunting for single-race value, today's Colonial card has something for everyone. Three races are open to all readers right now, with the full premium breakdown available to TrackWiz subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A maiden special weight opener on the Colonial turf with a clear morning-line favorite but enough intriguing second and third choices to keep things interesting — the top half of this field is separated by form, not a wide gap.

win3MontourML 6/5

Montour draws the eye immediately as the 6/5 morning-line favorite, and TrackWiz analysis backs that price up with the field's highest rating at 59.67. Sheldon Russell gets the call from the saddle — the same Russell barn (trainer Brittany T. Russell) that conditions this horse, a tight operation that tends to send horses ready. In a maiden field where most runners carry zero career wins and many show no average speed figure, Montour's overall profile stands alone at the top of the rankings.

place5BetterpartofvalourML 7/2

Betterpartofvalour at 7/2 is the natural play underneath, posting a 55.83 rating — the second-best mark in the field and a comfortable cushion over the rest of the pack. Trainer Michael J. Trombetta is a proven hand with turf maidens, and Mychel J. Sanchez gives this one a confident pilot. If the favorite faces any pressure early on this 5.5-furlong turf sprint, Betterpartofvalour is the most likely beneficiary.

show6After AllML 4/1

After All is the only horse in this field showing a recorded average speed figure (55), which gives trainer W. Thomas McMahon's runner a subtle edge in terms of proven turf form. At 4/1 on the morning line with a 55.0 rating, this one slots in neatly as the third wheel in exacta and trifecta coverage. Yomar Orlando Ortiz is a solid booking, and the existing speed data suggests After All has already learned something from prior starts.

Race 2

4:59 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Themis looms as a massive class standout in this maiden claimer — the question isn't whether she wins, it's whether the value underneath at 6/1 and 5/1 makes the exotics worth constructing.

win4ThemisML 3/5

Themis is one of those rare maiden claimers where the morning line tells the whole story — 3/5 and a TrackWiz rating of 90, a full 25 points clear of the next-best horse. Trainer Arnaud Delacour has a well-earned reputation for placing horses perfectly, and Jorge Ruiz gets a live mount here. With an average speed figure of 55 on this turf sprint distance, Themis has the look of a horse that's simply better than this field and is expected to prove it.

place8Hurricane LynnML 6/1

Hurricane Lynn at 6/1 is the logical place play, sitting second in the TrackWiz ratings at 65.02 — a sizable gap above the rest of the field outside of Themis. Trainer Kieron Magee's runner comes in with a 55 average speed figure, matching the top tier of this field, and Horacio Karamanos is a capable pilot who can put her in the right spot early on the Colonial turf. She's the clear best of the rest.

show2TootML 5/1

Toot checks in at 50.9 on the TrackWiz rating scale — third-best in the field — and connects with the hot hand of Sonny Leon, who has been active and productive on this Colonial circuit. A 56 average speed figure is the joint-highest in the field alongside Louvar and Toot herself, suggesting she's been competitive in her prior turf efforts. At 5/1, she's a reasonable show play and a sensible piece in trifecta tickets.

Race 3

5:28 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Stone Cold Jones carries the class edge and the top TrackWiz rating in this turf claiming mile, but Fly Now and Boss Lily make this a legitimate three-way battle — pace scenario here could be everything.

win8Stone Cold JonesML 3/1

Stone Cold Jones lands as our top selection with the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 and comes in at a fair 3/1 morning line. An 11% career win rate isn't flashy, but in a claiming field at this level it's competitive, and trainer Karen Dennehy's barn has been getting horses fit. Sonny Leon aboard is the standout jockey call — Leon has been one of the most effective riders on this circuit and should be able to steer Stone Cold Jones into an ideal spot early in a one-turn turf mile.

place2Fly NowML 5/2

Fly Now is the most intriguing angle in the race — a 33% career win rate is genuinely eye-catching for a claiming runner, and a 78.66 TrackWiz rating confirms that profile isn't a fluke. Trainer Keri Brion places horses with intention, and Taylor Kingsley is no stranger to getting the most out of turf types around Colonial. If Leon and Stone Cold Jones get loose on the front end, Fly Now's closing profile should have her right there at the wire.

show7Boss LilyML 2/1

Boss Lily at 2/1 is the morning-line second choice and earns her spot with a 75.46 TrackWiz rating and the services of Jevian Toledo, one of the more reliable jockeys in the mid-Atlantic region. An 8% career win rate in the claiming ranks and a 54 average speed figure suggest a consistently competitive horse. She's the right hedge in the show slot and a necessary piece for anyone building trifecta tickets in this race.

Our three free plays today are all turf sprints or routes, and TrackWiz analysis points to a consistent pace scenario across them: expect speed to be honest on this firm going, giving closers a fair shot without necessarily getting a complete gift up front. Montour opens the day as the morning-line favorite in Race 1 at 6/5 — that modest number in a maiden special weight suggests a horse the connections believe is ready to fire first out. In Race 2, Themis is a heavy 3/5 chalk and carries a dominant 90.0 TrackWiz rating, the kind of number that says "beat me." Stone Cold Jones at 3/1 in Race 3 is our most interesting free play — that morning line implies real competition, but our figures suggest he's got a meaningful edge in a 1 1/16-mile turf claiming route where pace dynamics should set up kindly for him.

Across all three free races, look for horses that have turf experience on similar firm or good-to-firm courses — Colonial's turf has been riding fast this summer meet, and form translates well from similar surfaces.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

In for a Spin vs. Wickedwithbourbon looks like the two-horse show in this six-furlong dirt claimer — a pace duel between these two could set things up for a closer, but the ratings gap from the top to the middle of the field is real.

win7In for a SpinML 2/1

In for a Spin tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 — the best number in the field — and Sonny Leon is back in the irons, giving this horse one of the circuit's most reliable pilots. An 11% career win rate in the claiming ranks and a 53 average speed figure round out a profile that fits a competitive six-furlong dirt sprint. The 2/1 morning line is fair, not generous, but the edge in our numbers is clear.

place1WickedwithbourbonML 5/2

Wickedwithbourbon at 5/2 is the other horse at the top of this field, rated 80.49 by TrackWiz, and Jareth Loveberry is a quality booking for trainer J. Keith Desormeaux. A 54 average speed figure and 10% career win rate suggest a consistent dirt runner who shows up reliably. If the pace gets hot early with In for a Spin, Wickedwithbourbon should have enough left in the tank to secure the place spot.

show2Chasing SunsetsML 6/1

Chasing Sunsets is easy to underestimate at 6/1, but a 79.05 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win rate make this one of the more deceptively strong show contenders on the card today. The 55 average speed figure is actually the joint-top mark in the field, suggesting she's been running fast — just maybe not winning at the right moment. Martin Chuan gets the mount and the value in the show slot makes her a smart trifecta inclusion.

Race 5

6:30 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

Set Ablaze and Emerald Spun are separated by fractions in the ratings in this allowance mile on the turf — this is a race where two horses are clearly better than the field, and sorting them out is the whole game.

win8Set AblazeML 5/2

Set Ablaze edges Emerald Spun in the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and brings a 30% career win rate — an elite number for this level — that signals a horse who knows how to finish first. Sonny Leon is a key booking and has had tremendous success guiding turf runners around Colonial. Trainer Karen Dennehy has her in sharp form, and a 55 average speed figure on the Colonial turf gives this horse proven credentials at the distance.

place3Emerald SpunML 3/2

Emerald Spun at 3/2 is only a fraction behind in the TrackWiz ratings at 87.49 and draws the services of Jareth Loveberry for trainer Rodolphe Brisset — a trainer-jockey combo that carries serious turf credentials. A 14% career win rate might not jump off the page, but the quality of her speed figures and the allowance conditions suit her profile well. She's the most likely horse to beat Set Ablaze and belongs on every ticket.

show2GripenML 5/1

Gripen at 5/1 brings one of the most compelling win percentages in the entire race — 37% for the career — and a 75.26 TrackWiz rating that places him well clear of the bottom half of this field. Trainer W. Robert Bailes is patient with his horses and Taylor Kingsley gets a horse who should be running on in the stretch of this one-mile turf contest. At 5/1 in the show slot, Gripen is a value addition to any exotic ticket.

Race 6

6:57 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Fourteen runners create a traffic nightmare in this five-and-a-half furlong turf claimer — post position and early positioning will matter enormously, and the value play at 6/1 jumps out from a field where the top morning-line choices aren't dramatically faster.

win8Say You Love MeML 6/1

Say You Love Me is our top selection at 6/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 — the highest number in this sprawling field — and a 20% career win rate that stands above most of the competition. Trainer Michael J. Trombetta placing a horse with Mychel J. Sanchez aboard in a large turf field is a combination that carries weight; Trombetta knows how to spot his horses. The 6/1 morning line represents genuine value given the ratings edge, and this is a race where the TrackWiz number matters in sorting out the chaos.

place5Yo AdrianML 2/1

Yo Adrian at 2/1 is the public's choice but checks in at 76.0 on the TrackWiz scale — a strong number, though it trails Say You Love Me. The Brittany T. Russell and Sheldon Russell combination is worth noting since it's the same tight operation that saddles Montour in Race 1, and they send horses ready. A 9% career win rate in the claiming ranks at this turf sprint distance is workmanlike, and Yo Adrian figures to be involved in the early pace scenario.

show13Horsing AroundML 5/2

Horsing Around at 5/2 for trainer Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. — one of the sharpest conditioners in the game — is a name that earns respect regardless of odds. A 16% career win rate and a 70.8 TrackWiz rating make this horse the third-best number in a fourteen-runner field, which is meaningful. Daniel Centeno has the mount and should be able to navigate the large field from post 13 — an outside post that actually helps avoid early traffic issues in a turf sprint.

Race 7

7:30 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Celtic Contender is a dominant 4/5 morning-line favorite in this allowance optional claiming route on the dirt — the real handicapping puzzle here is finding who beats the 90-rated chalk for exacta and trifecta purposes.

win5Celtic ContenderML 4/5

Celtic Contender carries a perfect 90 TrackWiz rating — the maximum in our system — and goes postward at 4/5 for trainer Hamilton A. Smith with Forest Boyce in the irons. A 28% career win rate in allowance company is genuinely impressive and tells you this horse has earned its way to the top of a field. The 56 average speed figure is competitive in this spot, and Boyce is a smart, experience jockey who won't waste this opportunity.

place4SuremeanttoobeML 8/1

Suremeanttoobe at 8/1 is a fascinating place play — a 31% career win rate is one of the best numbers in the race and suggests a horse who actually wins when it gets the right setup, not just one that hangs around. Trainer Michael J. Trombetta is again relevant on this card, sending Mychel J. Sanchez aboard in an allowance optional claiming spot that might be a favorable class level for this runner. The 59.85 TrackWiz rating gives this one the second-best number behind the heavy favorite.

show1Going UpML 20/1

Going Up at 20/1 might be the most interesting number on the card — a 40% career win rate is extraordinary and suggests this horse has been a consistent winner at some point in its career, even if current form has cooled. Trainer Maria Bowersock sends this one out with Sonny Leon aboard, which is a very serious booking for a 20/1 shot, and the 57 average speed figure is the highest in the entire race. If there's a longshot to sprinkle in the show slot here, Going Up's career win rate and speed figure combination make a compelling case.

Race 8

8:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Light de Night controls the TrackWiz ratings in this turf maiden claimer at a mile, but Lazy Y Legacy and It's Fine make this race more competitive than the morning line suggests — this one could go down to the wire.

win7Light de NightML 5/2

Light de Night tops the field with a 87.81 TrackWiz rating and draws a favorable 5/2 morning line that still offers some value given the numbers edge. Trainer Jorge Duarte, Jr. has Emmanuel Esquivel in the irons — a combination worth tracking in turf maiden claimers at Colonial. A 54 average speed figure is solid for this level, and the one-mile turf distance is a distance where pace intelligence and positioning often outweigh raw speed, an area where a professionally trained horse has an edge.

place3Lazy Y LegacyML 5/1

Lazy Y Legacy at 5/1 is the sleeper threat in this race — a 79.57 TrackWiz rating is the second-best mark in the field and trainer Aaron M. West has Sheldon Russell secured for the mount. The 54 average speed figure matches Light de Night exactly, suggesting these two may be evenly matched on the clock — the form edge between them could come down to how the race sets up. At 5/1 in the place slot, this is strong value for a horse who can genuinely win this race.

show4It's FineML 9/2

It's Fine at 9/2 fills out the trifecta wheel nicely with a 76.62 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — and the services of Jareth Loveberry for trainer Hugh I. McMahon. The 54 average speed figure is right in the mix, and McMahon does solid work with turf types at Colonial. If the top two set a quick pace in front, It's Fine looks like a logical beneficiary late in this mile turf maiden claimer.

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Bottom line: Colonial Downs is serving up a clean, turf-forward Sunday card under ideal conditions. Our top free plays — Montour, Themis, and Stone Cold Jones — give casual bettors a strong starting point, while subscribers get the full picture including pace projections, longshot angles, and exotic ticket breakdowns across all eight races. Good luck at the windows today.

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