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Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — August 22, 2026

August 22, 202611 racesAll Colonial Downs picks

It's a wet one at Colonial Downs today. Rain has moved through the area and temperatures are sitting at a sticky 78°F, which means the turf courses are going to be a central storyline all afternoon. With five turf races on an 11-race card, understanding how the going affects each contender is going to separate sharp tickets from losing ones.

The card is loaded with Handicap events from Race 4 through the finale, giving us plenty of weight-assignment intrigue and pace puzzle-solving to dig into. We've got a Maiden Special Weight sprint to kick things off, a Claiming mile to follow, and then the handicappers take over. Whether you're here for a casual bet on Race 1 or building a Pick 5 sequence through the back half, there's something for everyone today.

Keep a close eye on the dirt races — Colonial's main track can play favorably to certain pace shapes when it's been hit with rain, and that angle is baked into our TrackWiz ratings across the card.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden turf sprint where first-time starters dominate the field and no horse has a career win to their name — expect pace uncertainty and a potential upset.

win4Millford LassML 5/2

Millford Lass draws our top rating at 57.5 in this maiden field and comes in with an average speed figure of 57, the best recorded mark in the race. Trainer Keri Brion puts her out at a reasonable 5/2 morning line, suggesting connections are confident. With jockey Martin Chuan in the irons, she gets a competent pilot for what figures to be a contested but manageable pace on the Colonial turf.

place1TheclockistickingML 4/1

Theclockisticking lands in the place spot with a TrackWiz rating of 55 and the services of Paco Lopez, one of the sharper riders in this field. Trainer Michael J. Trombetta also saddles Poll Position in this race, meaning the barn has strong representation and clearly likes the conditions — that dual entry speaks volumes about Trombetta's confidence in the surface and distance.

show2Polka Dot JerseyML 9/2

Polka Dot Jersey is right in the mix with a rating of 54.17 and the best recorded average speed figure among the horses with prior data at 56 — just a tick behind Millford Lass overall. Jareth Loveberry gets the mount for trainer Michael E. Lauer, and at 9/2 on the morning line she offers solid each-way value in a race where the top three are tightly bunched in our ratings.

Race 2

4:59 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Sea Lion looks like a steamroller at 3/5 in this turf mile claimer, but the real story is whether anyone in the field can put together enough firepower to make the exotics interesting.

win6Sea LionML 3/5

Sea Lion is the class of this field by a wide margin — a TrackWiz rating of 90 towers over the competition, and trainer Kelsey Danner sends her out as a heavy 3/5 morning-line favorite. Samuel Marin gets the call and figures to have this mare sitting in a comfortable spot on the turf. The only real question is whether the price will be worth playing to win, but her dominance on paper makes her the anchor of any multi-race sequence.

place10Dream OvertureML 6/1

Dream Overture is the logical alternative at 6/1, carrying a solid 53.5 rating and a 20% career win rate that suggests she knows how to fire. Trainer Hugh I. McMahon and jockey Sheldon Russell combine for a pairing that should have her well placed over a mile of turf, and if Sea Lion hits any traffic or trouble, Dream Overture is the most likely beneficiary.

show7KatarzynaML 8/1

Katarzyna is worth a spot in the exotics at 8/1 morning line, posting a 46.24 rating for trainer Richard P. Sillaman with Daniel Centeno up. Her 7% career win rate is modest, but in a race dominated by a heavy favorite, third-place finishers can be overlooked, and her rating puts her clear of the rest of the mid-pack runners.

Race 3

5:29 PM EDT

Handicap · 6 fur · Dirt

Two legitimate standouts at the top of the TrackWiz ratings set up a potential match race on dirt, while a longshot lurks with pace-friendly attributes that could complicate the exacta.

win3Kerness KML 2/1

Kerness K tops our ratings at 88.54 and is tabbed at 2/1 on the morning line — a fair price for a horse with a staggering 57% career win rate. Trainer Jamie Ness puts Martin Chuan on board, and a six-furlong dirt handicap looks tailor-made for a horse whose profile screams class. That win percentage is the standout number in the entire race card today, and it's hard to bet against a horse who wins more than half the time it runs.

place5Twelve TreasuresML 3/2

Twelve Treasures is the other elite runner here with a 78.02 rating and a 31% career win clip, going postward at 3/2. Paco Lopez picks up the mount for trainer Renaldo Richards, giving this horse a significant rider upgrade. She's rated second-best in the field and could easily overturn Kerness K if the pace shapes up favorably — the place slot feels like a floor for her today.

show7Daufuskie IslandML 15/1

Daufuskie Island is our show selection at a generous 15/1 morning line, carrying a 48.81 rating that puts her clear of most of the field despite the longshot price. Trainer Sarah White sends her out with Carlos Eduardo Lopez, and her 19% career win rate is respectable. She's the type of runner who can sneak into the minor awards when the top two horses push each other hard up front.

We're opening up the first three races for all readers today, and they're worth your attention. Millford Lass tops our ratings in the opener, a 5½-furlong turf sprint for maiden fillies — a solid starting point on a card where turf form is going to be tested all day. In Race 2, Sea Lion carries a morning-line of 3/5 and a TrackWiz rating of 90, the highest mark on the free portion of the card — when a horse grades that cleanly in a one-mile turf claimer, you take notice. Race 3 shifts us to the dirt for a 6-furlong Handicap, where Kerness K comes in at 2/1 on the morning line with an 88.54 rating — a sharp price for a horse our model likes this much.

One theme connecting these three races: the rain-affected surfaces reward horses with tactical versatility. Whether it's the soft turf in Races 1 and 2 or a potentially sealed dirt strip in Race 3, horses that can rate comfortably off the pace and close into a track bias have an edge. All three of our free picks fit that profile to varying degrees.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:01 PM EDT

Handicap · 7 fur · Dirt

Zero Blitz looks unbeatable on paper as a 4/5 chalk with a perfect top rating, but this seven-furlong dirt handicap has legitimate horses underneath who could make the exotics very playable.

win6Zero BlitzML 4/5

Zero Blitz earns our maximum rating of 90 and a 53% career win rate that matches Willie Bird for the highest in the field — but Zero Blitz gets the nod on overall score. At 4/5, trainer Joanne Shankle sends Jorge Ruiz out on what appears to be the classiest runner in the race. Over seven furlongs of Colonial dirt, a horse with that win percentage and top rating deserves to be respected regardless of the short price.

place7Indy Charges OnML 4/1

Indy Charges On is the horse we want underneath at 4/1, boasting a 35% career win rate and a solid 69.41 TrackWiz rating. Trainer Lacey Gaudet puts Carlos Eduardo Lopez on board, and at that morning-line price there's genuine value if Zero Blitz hits any trouble. Her profile as a closer or stalker-type could position her perfectly behind a fast pace set by the top pick.

show4Bold DiversionML 3/1

Bold Diversion rounds out our selections at 3/1 with a 64.13 rating and a 25% career win percentage, trained by Joanne Shankle — the same barn as Zero Blitz. That same-trainer angle is worth noting: Shankle clearly likes these conditions enough to run two horses, and Bold Diversion with Samuel Marin up could benefit from any pace pressure created by her stablemate.

Race 5

6:29 PM EDT

Handicap · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Forrest City carries the top TrackWiz rating but sits at a generous 5/1 on the morning line, creating a genuine value scenario against a pair of shorter-priced horses who don't quite match up on our figures.

win6Forrest CityML 5/1

Forrest City is our top pick at 84.17 — the highest rating in the field — yet the morning line has her at 5/1, which immediately raises the eyebrows of any value-conscious bettor. Trainer Lacey Gaudet puts Tais Lyapustina in the irons, and over 1 1/16 miles of Colonial dirt, a horse with that rating edge and a tidy 17% win rate could easily surpass her fair market odds. This is the kind of overlay that sharp bettors circle.

place2Freedom RoadML 9/5

Freedom Road is the 9/5 morning-line co-favorite with a 68.26 rating and a strong 37% career win percentage — one of the better win rates in the field. Trainer Richard P. Sillaman sends Andrew Wolfsont out, and while our ratings have Forrest City clearly ahead, Freedom Road's overall profile makes her a very reliable place contender who likely runs into the money.

show3Curlin's MalibuML 8/5

Curlin's Malibu is the other short-priced runner at 8/5, though her 46.05 rating and 13% career win percentage leave her a bit short on both metrics compared to her odds. Trainer Michael J. Maker and Paco Lopez combine for a high-profile pairing, and connections clearly believe in her ability over the distance. She fits the show spot as a horse whose connections are strong even if our numbers aren't fully convinced at that price.

Race 6

6:59 PM EDT

Handicap · 6 fur · Dirt

Julee's Legacy is the dominant force in this six-furlong dirt handicap, but a 3/5 price means the real action is in the exacta and trifecta spots where Stylet and Miguel's Belle offer legitimate upside.

win9Julee's LegacyML 3/5

Julee's Legacy walks in with our maximum 90 rating and a jaw-dropping 60% career win rate — by far the highest in this field and among the best on today's entire card. Trainer Michael E. Jones, Jr. and jockey Jeiron Barbosa combine on a horse who simply wins more than anyone else in this race. The 3/5 morning line isn't generous, but the numbers back up the confidence — this is a horse you build your ticket around.

place3StyletML 5/1

Stylet is our place pick at 5/1 and makes a strong case with a 70.85 rating and a 30% career win percentage — the best among the horses chasing Julee's Legacy. Samuel Marin gets the mount for trainer S. Matthew Kintz, and at that price you're getting genuine value on a horse who could push the favorite and should comfortably fill the place spot in this field.

show4Miguel's BelleML 12/1

Miguel's Belle is an interesting show play at 12/1 with a 60.64 rating that's close to Stylet and clear of the rest of the field. Paco Lopez in the irons for trainer Michael V. Simone adds rider quality, and her 17% win rate is modest but functional. For trifecta players, she's the most logical third-place finisher at a price that rewards inclusion.

Race 7

7:31 PM EDT

Handicap · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A loaded five-and-a-half furlong turf handicap with four horses rated above 70 makes this one of the toughest races on the card — and Normandy Hero at 8/1 looks like the standout value play of the day.

win6Normandy HeroML 8/1

Normandy Hero tops our ratings at 79.79 — the highest in the field — yet opens at 8/1 on the morning line, which makes him our best value play on today's card. Trainer Jamie Ness puts Mychel J. Sanchez on board, a sharp combination for a turf sprint. With an average speed figure of 56 and a 23% career win rate, Normandy Hero has the tools to run a top figure and the price to deliver real profit.

place3BushidoML 5/2

Bushido is the 5/2 morning-line favorite and deservedly so — a 78.37 rating and an average speed figure of 58 (the top mark in the field) give Forest Boyce a live mount for trainer Lacey Gaudet. His 29% career win rate is solid, and in a race where the speed figures are closely bunched at the top, Bushido's consistency makes him a reliable place contender.

show2If Not for LuckML 6/1

If Not for Luck brings a 71.6 rating and the best average speed figure alongside Bushido at 58, giving trainer Beau J. Chapman's horse a legitimate shot to hit the board. Samuel Marin gets the call, and at 6/1 morning line the value is there. In a race this competitive, having two speed-figure standouts rated within a few points of each other makes If Not for Luck a smart inclusion in trifecta tickets.

Race 8

8:03 PM EDT

Handicap · 1 mi · Dirt

Coquito heads into this mile dirt handicap as the class of the field, but La Girvina and Golden Eib Micrphn make this one of the tightest top-three matchups of the afternoon.

win6CoquitoML 9/5

Coquito earns our top rating of 88.83 and goes to post at 9/5 with Paco Lopez aboard for trainer Joe Sharp — a formidable combination by any measure. A 32% career win rate backs up the strong figure, and over a one-mile Colonial dirt track, Sharp's horses tend to be well-prepared. This is a horse who looks the part at a price that's fair rather than prohibitive.

place2La GirvinaML 5/1

La Girvina is our place pick at 5/1 with an 80.71 rating and a 36% career win rate — one of the stronger win percentages in the field outside the top pick. Trainer S. Matthew Kintz sends Samuel Marin out on a horse who carries legitimate form into this spot. The gap between Coquito and La Girvina on our ratings is real, but the place slot looks like a very comfortable fit.

show3Golden Eib MicrphnML 9/2

Golden Eib Micrphn rounds out the top three at 9/2 with a 79.13 rating and a 35% career win percentage, giving Jevian Toledo a horse who is consistently competitive. Trainer Jonathan Maldonado has her ready to fire, and with three horses bunched between 79 and 89 in our ratings, the trifecta here looks extremely playable with these three on top.

Race 9

8:35 PM EDT

Handicap · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Smiling Ellie opens at even money but carries only the third-highest TrackWiz rating in the field, while Put a Rock On It lurks at a massive 20/1 with a figure that suggests the morning line may be significantly off.

win5Smiling EllieML EVN

Smiling Ellie is our top pick here with a 74.75 rating for trainer Mark E. Casse, one of the most accomplished conditioners in the sport. Samuel Marin takes the mount at even money, and over 1 1/16 miles of Colonial turf, Casse's horses are always worth respecting. A 22% career win rate is steady rather than spectacular, but the trainer angle and the rating edge give her the nod.

place2GoodbetterbestML 8/1

Goodbetterbest at 8/1 with a 71.4 rating is a horse we really like underneath, and trainer Joe Sharp's consistent record makes this a value play. Jareth Loveberry rides, and at that morning-line price you're getting a horse rated within four points of the favorite for significantly better odds. The place spot looks like Goodbetterbest's floor given the profile.

show3Put a Rock On ItML 20/1

Put a Rock On It is the show pick and the best value in the race at 20/1 — a horse with a 62.29 rating that ranks third in the field behind only Smiling Ellie and Goodbetterbest. Jose E. Vargas rides for trainer Kieron Magee, and that morning-line price seems far too generous for a horse whose rating puts her clearly ahead of most of the field. Trifecta players absolutely need her in the mix.

Race 10

9:07 PM EDT

Handicap · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

Nogradi brings elite credentials into this 1 1/8-mile dirt handicap, but Groveland and Baytown Bruiser make this a race where the exacta and trifecta could pay very nicely.

win1NogradiML 2/1

Nogradi posts an 88.54 rating — the top mark in the field — and a 44% career win rate that is exceptional at any level. Trainer Keri Brion puts Martin Chuan on board, and the 2/1 morning line reflects legitimate confidence from the connections. Over 1 1/8 miles of Colonial dirt, a horse who wins 44% of the time and carries our top figure is tough to fade.

place2GrovelandML 5/1

Groveland is the place selection at 5/1 with a 74.88 rating and a 25% career win rate, giving trainer Eddie Kenneally a horse who figures to be competitive throughout. Mychel J. Sanchez gets the mount, and the 14-point gap between Groveland and Nogradi on our ratings is real — but second or third place looks very achievable for this horse against this field.

show6Baytown BruiserML 8/1

Baytown Bruiser is our show pick at 8/1 with a 73.36 rating and an average speed figure of 54 — the best in the race. Samuel Marin rides for trainer Barry L. King, and while his 15% career win rate is modest, that speed figure edge over a longer distance suggests he could be doing his best running late. At 8/1 he's the kind of horse who makes trifecta tickets very profitable when he hits the board.

Race 11

9:37 PM EDT

Handicap · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A full field of twelve goes to post in this closing turf handicap, with three horses tightly clustered at the top of our ratings and a wide-open supporting cast that makes exotic wagering extremely appealing.

win1Two's a CrowdML 9/2

Two's a Crowd earns our top rating at 84.9 and opens at 9/2 — arguably the best price on a top-rated horse anywhere on today's card. Trainer Derek S. Ryan sends Edwin Gonzalez out on a horse with a 31% career win rate, and over 1 1/16 miles of Colonial turf that figure should hold up in a big field. The combination of top rating and an attractive price is exactly what TrackWiz analysis targets.

place10Westside TideML 5/2

Westside Tide at 5/2 morning line carries an 83.42 rating for trainer Joe Sharp, with Paco Lopez taking the mount — a rider-trainer combination that consistently fires at Colonial. A 16% career win rate is modest, but Sharp-trained turf horses at this distance are worth a closer look, and the rating puts Westside Tide right in the thick of the win picture even if we like Two's a Crowd marginally more.

show2What Say TheeML 2/1

What Say Thee opens as the 2/1 morning-line favorite despite our ratings having her third at 76.47, which sets up a fascinating wagering angle. Johan Rosado rides for trainer Horacio De Paz, and a 29% career win rate gives her legitimate credentials. If the betting public overloads her to even shorter odds, Two's a Crowd and Westside Tide become overlays — but What Say Thee's show position is nearly locked up based on her overall form.

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Bottom line: Colonial Downs is serving up a full 11-race card on a rainy Saturday, and the conditions are going to create real separation between horses. Our top free plays — Millford Lass, Sea Lion, and Kerness K — give every reader a solid foundation. For the full card, including pace projections, longshot angles like Normandy Hero, and our complete exotic wagering breakdowns, the premium analysis has you covered. Good luck out there — and as always, bet responsibly.

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