Unlock the other 6 races on today's card, plus AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet ticket construction.

The winner is in our top 4 picks 75% of the time, across 17 tracks.

Daily Picks

Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — August 21, 2026

August 21, 20269 racesAll Colonial Downs picks

It's a beautiful Friday at Colonial Downs — clear skies, 80°F, and the kind of afternoon that makes you want to be exactly where the horses are. Conditions are about as ideal as it gets, which means turf lovers are in for a treat: six of today's nine races are run on the grass, giving the Colonial turf course plenty of opportunity to shine.

The card covers the full spectrum — from raw maiden claimers trying to break their duck to open claimers with some legitimate back class. There's a nice mix of sprints and routes, dirt and turf, which means the pace scenarios will shift race to race and keep you thinking all afternoon.

We've got three races open to everyone today, covering the first half of the card, and six premium races with full deep-dive analysis for subscribers. Whether you're here for a casual pick or building multi-race tickets, today's Colonial card has plenty to dig into.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden claimer on the dirt where one horse towers above the field on paper — but at 4/5 on the morning line, bettors will need to decide if the chalk is worth backing or if there's upset value lurking underneath.

win2Kinda KrazyML 4/5

Kinda Krazy draws in with a TrackWiz rating of 90 — the highest mark in this field by a significant margin — and Jose E. Vargas gets the call for trainer Lacey Gaudet. At 4/5 on the morning line, the market agrees this is the standout. With an average speed figure of 53 and that dominant rating advantage, Kinda Krazy looks like the horse to beat in this maiden claiming mile.

place7Maggies BrewML 3/1

Maggies Brew comes in as the second-highest rated horse in the race at 69.67, a meaningful gap above the rest of the lower half of the field. Trainer John I. Pimental sends this one out with Sonny Leon in the irons — a solid partnership — and the 3/1 morning line reflects genuine second-choice status. If the favorite stumbles, Maggies Brew figures to be right there.

show1AshweeeML 8/1

Ashweee at 8/1 offers some sneaky exotic appeal with a TrackWiz rating of 59.28 — third-best in the field. Daniel Centeno rides for trainer Richard P. Sillaman, and the average speed figure of 54 is in line with the top contenders. At double-digit-adjacent odds, threading Ashweee into the show slot of a trifecta makes sense as a live longshot hedge.

Race 2

5:05 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A turf maiden special weight at 1 1/16 miles that features a tightly bunched trio at the top of the ratings, setting up a genuine three-way battle among Paid Vacation, Zencat, and Lex's Game.

win7Paid VacationML 5/2

Paid Vacation tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and draws trainer Timothy L. Keefe, who also saddles longshot Forget the Rules in this spot — a sign Keefe is loaded in the race. Forest Boyce takes the mount, and with an average speed of 54 on turf, Paid Vacation has the profile of a horse ready to fire on this surface. The 5/2 morning line is fair value for the top-rated horse in the field.

place5ZencatML 9/5

Zencat is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 with a strong TrackWiz rating of 81.77, and Gavin Ashton gets the call for trainer Irvin G. Flores. Posting a 54 average speed, Zencat's profile fits this distance on turf, and the market clearly respects this horse's chances. Even if Paid Vacation runs it down late, Zencat has the class to finish second.

show2Lex's GameML 2/1

Lex's Game brings a 74.6 TrackWiz rating and the powerful Sheldon Russell-Brittany T. Russell combination — the husband-and-wife trainer-jockey team is always a combination worth noting when they fire together. With an average speed of 54 and 2/1 odds, Lex's Game might actually be undervalued as a win contender, making the show slot a conservative play in what could be a competitive finish.

Race 3

5:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite is not the top-rated horse in this 5.5-furlong maiden claimer on dirt — Sisu Spirit carries the biggest TrackWiz number while sitting at a very manageable 2/1 price.

win8Sisu SpiritML 2/1

Sisu Spirit is the standout here with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — the best mark in the field by a wide margin — and pairs with Sheldon Russell for trainer Mary Lightner. Posting an average speed of 55, Sisu Spirit has the raw ability to control this short sprint, and at 2/1 the odds are actually quite reasonable for the class of the field. This is the kind of horse you feel confident anchoring your exotics around.

place6X G ManML 7/2

Trainer Mary Lightner doubles up in this race with X G Man, who carries a solid 70.89 rating and draws Rajiv Maragh, one of the sharper riders in the Mid-Atlantic circuit. An average speed of 55 matches Sisu Spirit at the top, and at 7/2 on the morning line, X G Man is a legitimate second-choice who could push the stablemate or slip by if things go sideways. Lightner clearly likes her chances with two live runners.

show3Golden FaithML 4/1

Golden Faith shows a TrackWiz rating of 55 and gets Jevian Toledo up for trainer D. Whitworth Beckman — and no average speed figure is available, which suggests a horse that may be making a debut or first surface start, adding an element of mystery. At 4/1, there's upside if Golden Faith has been working well, and Toledo is skilled at getting the most out of first-timers in sprint situations.

Our three free races today span both surfaces and give you a solid cross-section of the card. Kinda Krazy opens things up in Race 1 on dirt — a heavy morning-line favorite in maiden claiming company who our ratings peg as the clear top number in the field. Race 2 moves to the turf for a maiden special weight mile-and-a-sixteenth, where Paid Vacation earns top honors at a workable 5/2 morning line. Then Race 3 brings us back to the dirt for a short 5½-furlong sprint, where Sisu Spirit at 2/1 looks like the pace controller to beat.

One thing to watch across all three: the firm turf and dry dirt should favor horses with early speed or a clean stalking trip — nothing sloppy to deal with today. If you're building a multi-race ticket around the free plays, Kinda Krazy's strong rating makes her a logical single to anchor your early sequences.

Send me tomorrow's free Colonial Downs card before post time.

Free picks in your inbox each morning. No card required, unsubscribe anytime.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:04 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A five-furlong turf claimer for older horses with real form to dissect — this field has experienced runners with career win percentages, and the top pick is not the morning-line favorite, which creates some genuine value.

win3Salty OneML 9/2

Salty One tops this field with a TrackWiz rating of 84.9 and a 12% career win rate, and Jevian Toledo pilots for trainer John E. Salzman, Jr. The average speed figure of 56 leads all horses in this race — a meaningful edge in a five-furlong sprint where early pace and raw speed are paramount. Opening at 9/2 on the morning line, Salty One looks underpriced relative to the rating advantage.

place5Over My CentsML 6/1

Over My Cents carries a 79.19 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and Jose E. Vargas takes the mount for trainer Jose J. Magana. The career win rate sits at 5%, which is modest, but the 55 average speed figure is competitive, and the 6/1 morning line suggests potential overlay territory for a horse rated this highly. A closer-style profile in a short sprint could set up nicely if the pace gets hot early.

show1Eileen's a WarriorML 3/1

Eileen's a Warrior stands out with a 20% career win rate — tied for the best in the field — and earns Rajiv Maragh for trainer Mary Lightner, who is active throughout today's card. The TrackWiz rating of 71.43 and a 55 average speed figure give this mare a solid foundation, and at 3/1 she's the morning-line co-favorite. As a show play, she's about as reliable a safety net as you'll find in a claiming field.

Race 5

6:34 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open ten-horse maiden special weight on the turf mile with several first-time or lightly raced horses and no dominant favorite — our top pick comes from well off the morning-line and represents genuine value.

win9Maximus PrincessML 15/1

Maximus Princess is the TrackWiz value play of the race at 15/1 on the morning line, carrying a field-best 69.58 rating — notably higher than the 5/2 favorite Cordova at 57.5. Angel Cruz rides for trainer Jose Corrales, and the 52 average speed figure is one of the few benchmarks available in a field full of unknowns. When the top-rated horse is also the biggest price in contention, that's a spot TrackWiz analysis targets aggressively.

place8CordovaML 5/2

Cordova draws the 5/2 morning-line ticket with Paco Lopez — one of the Mid-Atlantic's elite riders — for trainer Michael Stidham, and the 57.5 rating and 53 average speed give it a respectable profile. The market clearly favors this horse, and Lopez's ability to rate a horse and find a stalking trip on turf makes Cordova dangerous at any distance. The place spot here is secure if it fires close to its ceiling.

show1FumedML 3/1

Fumed opens at 3/1 on the morning line for the well-regarded Arnaud Delacour barn, a trainer known for getting first-time starters ready on the turf. Mychel J. Sanchez takes the mount, and the 56.67 TrackWiz rating places Fumed third in the field. With no average speed on record, there's upside here that's hard to quantify — which is exactly the kind of unknown that can result in a sharp debut on the Colonial turf.

Race 6

7:05 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

An eight-horse maiden special weight sprint on the Colonial turf where the TrackWiz top pick is NOT the morning-line favorite, suggesting a potential overlay situation worth exploiting.

win6Thunder ZeusML 9/2

Thunder Zeus earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 84.9 and is backed by a 56 average speed — the best raw figure in the field. Samuel Marin handles the mount for trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo, and the 9/2 morning line makes this one of the best-priced top-rated horses on the card. In a 5.5-furlong turf sprint, a horse with this kind of speed figure can control the race from the front or just off the pace.

place2Munny ProblemML 5/2

Munny Problem sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 76.27 and gets Paco Lopez from the Michael J. Trombetta barn — which also runs Souper Power Tapit in this very race, giving Trombetta two shots. Lopez clearly gets the stable's top horse here, and the 55 average speed figure supports a forward-running style that suits short turf routes. The 5/2 morning line makes Munny Problem the betting favorite, though our model has Thunder Zeus clearly on top.

show4FantiML 9/2

Fanti is rated 75.07 by TrackWiz — just a sliver behind Munny Problem — and Luis Fuenmayor rides for trainer Carlos Munoz. Posting an average speed of 55, Fanti's profile is nearly identical to the second pick on paper, making this 9/2 morning-line runner an interesting exotics piece. In a race where the top three are genuinely close in the ratings, threading Fanti into your trifectas is a smart play.

Race 7

7:36 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A full ten-horse maiden special weight on the Colonial turf where the top pick has a commanding rating advantage, but there's a standout longshot value in the show position that sharp bettors shouldn't ignore.

win3AperitifML 5/2

Aperitif is the class of this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — the highest mark by more than nine points — and checks in with an average speed figure of 56, also best in the race. Jeiron Barbosa takes the mount for trainer Elizabeth M. Merryman, and the 5/2 morning line feels like a fair price for the top-rated horse in a wide-open maiden sprint on turf. This is TrackWiz's most confident win selection in the race.

place7Charlotte's CayML 7/2

Charlotte's Cay draws a 78.41 TrackWiz rating and gets Mychel J. Sanchez for the Michael J. Trombetta stable — a trainer who is never shy about sending sharp first-timers in maiden company. The 55 average speed figure is competitive, and at 7/2 on the morning line, Charlotte's Cay shapes up as a natural stablemate threat to anyone who tries to go wire-to-wire. A solid place pick in a race where the first two choices are well-separated from the field.

show6LuxML 12/1

Lux opens at 12/1 on the morning line, which is a notable overlay given a TrackWiz rating of 72.63 — third-best in this ten-horse field. Paco Lopez takes the mount for trainer Justin Rivera, and a 54 average speed gives Lux competitive speed numbers. The odds don't reflect how close this horse is to the top two on our model, making Lux a high-value show play and a smart inclusion in any trifecta tickets.

Race 8

8:08 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A thirteen-horse claiming sprint on the Colonial turf — one of the biggest fields on today's card — with a clear top pick from the TrackWiz model that bucks the morning-line favorite and creates solid exotic opportunity.

win4Boss Is a PalML 5/1

Boss Is a Pal leads this crowded field with a 77.39 TrackWiz rating and a career win rate of 19% — among the stronger records in this group. Forest Boyce takes the mount for trainer Suzanne Stettinius, and an average speed of 57 ties for the best figure in the race. At 5/1 on the morning line, Boss Is a Pal is not the betting favorite but carries the top number, making it a potential value spot worth building exotics around.

place6Point LiamML 6/1

Point Liam checks in at 74.48 on the TrackWiz scale with a 16% career win rate and an average speed of 57 — matching the top figure in this field. Matilda Burnham takes the mount for trainer Gina Perri, and the 6/1 morning line undervalues what this horse brings on paper. In a 13-horse field, getting a horse with a 57 speed figure and a 74+ rating at this price into your exacta and trifecta is exactly the kind of edge to exploit.

show5Noble JonML 5/2

Noble Jon carries a 32% career win rate — by far the best in this field — which tells you this horse knows how to finish in the money and close out races. Horacio Karamanos handles the mount for trainer Monica McGoey, and the 57 average speed figure matches the best in the race. The 5/2 morning line makes Noble Jon the likely public choice, and while our model has Boss Is a Pal on top, Noble Jon's win percentage makes it an exceptionally reliable show-position anchor in a big field.

Race 9

8:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

The final race at Colonial Downs on Saturday is a turf mile claiming affair where one horse separates itself dramatically from the rest on the TrackWiz model — the kind of standout that bettors love to single in late-card exotics.

win6Reading TimeML 3/1

Reading Time tops this eleven-horse field with a dominant TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — nearly 15 points clear of the next-best horse — and carries a 14% career win rate for trainer Joseph F. Orseno. Samuel Marin gets the call, and a 54 average speed figure is solid for the turf mile. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is one of the most clearly defined value plays on the card — the gap between Reading Time and the field is simply too large to ignore.

place7El Ma'anyML 6/1

El Ma'any brings an impressive 27% career win rate — the best in this field — and pairs with Sonny Leon for trainer Michael Dini, a combination that can handle both front-running and stalking scenarios. The TrackWiz rating of 72.32 and 53 average speed place this horse solidly in the second tier of contenders, and the 6/1 morning line is generous for a horse with this kind of career record. El Ma'any is a strong place candidate who could steal the race entirely if Reading Time has an off day.

show9Risk and RegretML 5/2

Risk and Regret opens at 5/2 on the morning line with Paco Lopez aboard for trainer Tim Woolley — a high-profile jockey booking that demands attention. The 71.0 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field, and the 53 average speed is workable for the turf mile. While our model has Reading Time clearly on top, Risk and Regret's market support and elite jockey make it a logical inclusion in the show position for trifecta players looking to cover.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

A gorgeous day at Colonial Downs, a nine-race card loaded with turf action, and three strong free plays to get you started — Kinda Krazy, Paid Vacation, and Sisu Spirit are our public best bets. For the full card breakdown, pace projections, and exotic ticket strategies through Race 9, TrackWiz subscribers have everything they need. Good luck out there, and let's have a big Friday.

← All Colonial Downs picks & predictions

You're reading 3 of 9 races free