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Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — August 20, 2026

August 20, 20268 racesAll Colonial Downs picks

This card ran on August 20, 2026.

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Best bets at Colonial Downs, August 20, 2026

Race 13Easy PickML 6/112:30 PM EDT

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Results are in — see the official Colonial Downs chart and payouts (our top pick won 3 of 8)→

It's a beautiful Thursday at Colonial Downs — clear skies, 89°F, and the kind of firm turf that separates the real grass horses from the pretenders. Eight races are on the card today, split across dirt and turf, ranging from maiden claimers to allowance company. There's something for everyone, whether you're looking to cash a single or build a multi-race ticket.

The heat is worth noting. Colonial's turf course tends to hold up well in dry conditions, and with no recent rain in the forecast, expect a fast-playing surface that should favor horses with tactical speed and the ability to rate just off a quick pace. On the dirt side, keep an eye on early pace — hot weather often produces firm footing that can amplify front-runner bias.

We've got three free races to get you started and five premium breakdowns for subscribers who want the full picture. Let's dig in.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer over 6½ furlongs on dirt, where TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear top tier but the morning line suggests the market hasn't fully caught up — expect some overlay opportunities.

win3Easy PickML 6/1

Easy Pick (#3) owns the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 74.53 — a meaningful gap over the rest of the pack — and posts the top average speed figure among her rivals at 55. Paco Lopez gets the call, and he's one of the sharpest pilots in this circuit, rarely wasting a trip in a race this short. At 6/1 on the morning line, the market is leaving value on the table relative to what our numbers say. This is a maiden claimer, so nothing is guaranteed, but Easy Pick checks the most boxes.

place4Saint ShanceML 8/1

Saint Shance (#4) rates second among horses with meaningful data at 64.96, and Declan Cannon is a capable hand in these lower-level dirt sprints. The 8/1 morning line makes this a genuine overlay if you're building exotics — a place ticket here could pay quite well if Easy Pick runs her race and Saint Shance fills the frame.

show5ChappelleML EVN

Chappelle (#5) is the morning-line favorite at even money, and while our rating of 60.0 slots her third in the field, she does carry the best average speed figure in the race at 56. Jareth Loveberry rides, and he's always dangerous on a speed horse in a sprint. If you're keying Easy Pick on top and need a safety net in the exacta or trifecta, Chappelle belongs in the mix.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:02 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A 5-furlong maiden special weight on dirt that leans heavily on an odds-on favorite, but a pair of lightly raced runners with intriguing profiles could make the exotics very interesting.

win5For the MoneyML 3/5

For the Money (#5) is the class of this field according to TrackWiz, posting a rating of 60.0 that leads everyone by a clear margin, and she backs it up with the top average speed figure at 55. Trainer Rohan G. Crichton puts Paco Lopez in the irons — that's a barn willing to spend to win — and the 3/5 morning line reflects public confidence. Five furlongs on dirt is a pure speed test, and For the Money looks primed to control this from the start.

place7Empress WarriorML 7/2

Empress Warrior (#7) is the second-best rated horse in the field at 55.83 and draws Jevian Toledo, who knows how to place a closer in a short sprint. Several horses in here show no recorded speed figures, making Empress Warrior's profile stand out even more. At 7/2, she's a solid place play and a smart key horse on the bottom of any exacta.

show9Twin StarsML 6/1

Twin Stars (#9) rates third in the field at 51.67 and gets a significant jockey upgrade landing Sonny Leon, who has been one of the busiest and most effective riders on the circuit. Mark E. Casse conditions her, and that's a trainer who doesn't send horses out to lose — especially in a maiden special weight. At 6/1, she rounds out the trifecta nicely as the third-best option in a fairly shallow field.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

The first three races give us a nice cross-section of the card. In Race 1, a 6½-furlong maiden claimer on the dirt, Easy Pick lands on top of our board at a juicy 6/1 morning line — exactly the kind of overlay we love to highlight. Race 2 shifts to a 5-furlong maiden special weight, where For the Money comes in as the morning-line favorite at 3/5. Short-priced chalk in sprint maiden races can be tricky, so the free analysis will walk you through whether the price is justified. Then in Race 3, Caldera takes center stage in a one-mile allowance optional claimer — an 83-plus TrackWiz rating and a 4/5 morning line suggest the market agrees this one is a cut above the field.

One thread connecting these three free picks: all three races are dirt routes or sprints where early position and pace scenario matter enormously in this heat. We'll break down the pace dynamics in each write-up so you understand not just who we like, but why they win — and under what circumstances the pick falls apart.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:34 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A tight, talented allowance optional claiming mile on dirt with three horses bunched at the top of the ratings — Caldera is the narrow favorite on paper, but Aristotle and Winterfell could easily blow this open.

win3CalderaML 4/5

Caldera (#3) tops our ratings at 83.2 and leads all starters with a 37% career win rate — that's an elite figure that suggests a horse who shows up to run. Saffie A. Joseph Jr. is one of the most respected trainers in the game at this level, and Paco Lopez completes a powerhouse connections package. The 4/5 morning line makes her a short price, but in a field this competitive, the win pick has to follow the numbers — and the numbers say Caldera.

place2AristotleML 6/1

Aristotle (#2) is statistically tied with Winterfell at a 82.71 rating but gets the nod for the place position based on a 30% career win rate that shows consistency. Sonny Leon rides for Mark E. Casse, arguably the deepest barn in this race, and the one-mile dirt distance should suit a horse built for sustained pace. If Caldera gets caught up in a pace duel, Aristotle is ideally positioned to swoop.

show4WinterfellML 6/1

Winterfell (#4) matches Aristotle's 82.71 rating and actually posts the field's best average speed figure at 55, suggesting raw ability that could show up in a pace scenario that suits a closer. Jevian Toledo takes the mount for Brittany T. Russell, and at 6/1 on the morning line, Winterfell is one of the better show values on the card. Don't leave her off your trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

2:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

This 5½-furlong turf claimer is a TrackWiz premium race featuring a lopsided standout at the top of the ratings — but a morning-line favorite at 2/1 looms large, and a value play in the 10/1 range could make exotic payoffs very attractive.

win4Matthew's TicketML 5/1

Matthew's Ticket (#4) dominates this field with a TrackWiz rating of 84.17 — nearly 20 points clear of the second-ranked horse — and Forest Boyce takes the mount for the accomplished Phillip Capuano barn. The 5/1 morning line is genuinely generous for a horse rated this far above the competition, suggesting real overlay potential. With a 16% career win rate that's respectable in claiming company, Matthew's Ticket projects as the clear best bet of the first half of the card.

place6CapovivoML 2/1

Capovivo (#6) is the morning-line choice at 2/1 and brings a career win rate of 33% — by far the best in the field — along with the top average speed figure at 58. Jareth Loveberry climbs aboard for Larry Rivelli, and this combination knows how to get horses ready for short turf sprints. If Matthew's Ticket fails to fire, Capovivo is almost certainly picking up the pieces.

show2JamalamadingdongML 10/1

Jamalamadingdong (#2) checks in with a solid 59.57 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win rate that's workable in this field. Sonny Leon rides for Kathleen O'Connell, and the 10/1 morning line makes this a compelling show value or an exotic anchor. The average speed figure of 57 is second-best in the race, hinting at the raw capability to threaten on a good trip.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

2:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A packed 12-horse maiden claiming field going a mile on dirt, with a tight race at the top between two well-rated horses — and several outclassed runners that make the top of this field look even stronger by contrast.

win10Bad Boy ButchML 3/1

Bad Boy Butch (#10) leads our ratings at 81.0 and gets Paco Lopez in the irons, which is the single best jockey booking you can make in this field. Gregory D. Sacco is a trainer with a long track record of winning at this level, and the 3/1 morning line reflects a market that respects the horse's form. In a deep, confusing field like this one, the horse with the cleanest profile and the best rider tends to get the job done.

place1Divine SwaggerML 8/1

Divine Swagger (#1) rates a close 79.79 on the TrackWiz scale and gets the rail post with Forest Boyce in the saddle — a jockey who excels at getting good position early in route races. Anthony Aguirre Jr. trains this one, and at 8/1 on the morning line, the public is underestimating a horse that sits less than two points behind our top pick. Divine Swagger is a genuine value play for the place spot and belongs in your exacta combos.

show2H AbarrioML 9/2

H Abarrio (#2) rates third in the field at 73.86 and draws Daniel Centeno for Gerard Ochoa — a pairing that's produced results in similar conditions. The 9/2 morning line is fair, and with multiple long shots cluttering the bottom of this field, a show ticket on H Abarrio in a 12-horse maiden claimer could return meaningful value. Keep this one in your trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 6

3:06 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming mile on dirt that features a standout at the top of the TrackWiz ratings and a very competitive secondary layer — the pace scenario should set up for a closer, which shapes this race beautifully.

win8BrunoML 3/1

Bruno (#8) dominates this field with a career-best TrackWiz rating of 87.08 and backs it up with the highest average speed figure in the race at 55. A 25% career win rate is excellent for allowance company, and Jevian Toledo — one of the most accomplished riders in the Mid-Atlantic — takes the mount for Daniel G. Eubanks. At 3/1 on the morning line, Bruno offers legitimate value relative to his numbers and represents our strongest confidence play of the evening.

place7Jolly by GollyML 5/2

Jolly by Golly (#7) rates second in the field at 77.29 with a 5/2 morning line that reflects genuine market respect. Mychel J. Sanchez rides for the reliable Jamie Ness barn, a trainer who consistently gets allowance horses placed — and with an 18% career win rate, Jolly by Golly clearly knows how to finish. If Bruno uses his speed to clear the field, Jolly by Golly is the most likely beneficiary of a clean trip.

show1Stone Cold FlexML 3/1

Stone Cold Flex (#1) rates 72.42 and gets the rail post in what shapes up as a pace-honest race — which could actually work in her favor if the speed horses soften each other up. Victor Carrasco Jr. trains this one, and a 19% career win rate shows she's a horse who competes hard. At 3/1, she's not a show price longshot, but she's a solid anchor for trifectas given her ratings profile.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

3:38 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

This 5½-furlong turf allowance has a legitimate standout at the top of our ratings, but three horses cluster tightly in the 80-86 range — making the pace scenario critical and the exacta a potential lucrative play.

win3Jungle GlowML 7/2

Jungle Glow (#3) tops our board with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 — the widest margin any leader has over the second horse in any race today — and a 21% career win rate confirms she's not just a number on paper. Jeiron Barbosa gets the call for Kevin J. Joy, and Joy has been sharp with turf sprinters in this spot all meet. At 7/2, the morning line is fair but not generous, which tells you the connections believe in this horse. Short turf sprints reward horses who can accelerate quickly, and Jungle Glow's profile suggests exactly that.

place6Then What TimeML 5/2

Then What Time (#6) rates a strong 80.73 with Paco Lopez in the irons for Jorge Duarte Jr. — that jockey booking alone is worth noting in a turf sprint where positioning off the gate is everything. The 5/2 morning line makes this the co-favorite in terms of market confidence, and while our numbers slot her just behind Jungle Glow, a 15% career win rate in allowance company is respectable. She's the most logical exacta partner with Jungle Glow on top.

show7KnockanaraML 3/1

Knockanara (#7) rates almost identically to Then What Time at 80.51 and brings the strongest career win rate in the field at 28% — a number that stands out in a turf allowance full of experienced runners. Jorge Ruiz takes the mount for Sarah Nagle, and at 3/1 on the morning line, Knockanara is the kind of closer that can sneak into the frame when the speed horses duel. Don't leave her off your trifecta tickets — the connections match up well for 5½ furlongs on turf.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

4:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A massive 14-horse turf mile claiming field wraps up the card, and while a heavy favorite leads our ratings by a comfortable margin, there's enough secondary talent to make the exotics potentially huge — this is a race built for trifecta players.

win5Mr FlowersML 7/5

Mr Flowers (#5) is the clear class of this enormous field, posting a TrackWiz rating of 89.42 — the highest mark on today's entire card — and drawing Mychel J. Sanchez for the sharp Jamie Ness operation. The 7/5 morning line will compress any win payoff, but at a 10% career win rate, Mr Flowers has shown he can be vulnerable, which is what makes the place and show plays interesting. Still, when your ratings say a horse is this far ahead of the field on a surface and distance where he's been competitive, you follow the numbers.

place2Souper CrunchyML 3/1

Souper Crunchy (#2) rates second in the field at 81.03 and gets Paco Lopez for Michael J. Trombetta — a trainer who excels with turf routers and rarely runs a horse without a plan. A 10% career win rate at the claiming level shows durability, and the 3/1 morning line on a horse rated this clearly in the second position makes the place ticket look like genuine value in a field this deep. With 14 runners, Souper Crunchy getting into the money is a strong probability play.

show10Red Sky MorningML 6/1

Red Sky Morning (#10) checks in at 75.35 on our ratings — third-best in the field — with Sonny Leon aboard for Michael Dini. A 16% career win rate shows this horse competes consistently in claiming company, and the 6/1 morning line is a real overlay for a horse rated this highly. In a sprawling turf mile with 14 horses, pace is unpredictable and trip luck matters, but Red Sky Morning's profile says she can overcome a tough trip and still hit the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

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Eight races, firm turf, hot sun, and a closing race headlined by Mr Flowers — this is a solid Thursday card with plenty of angles to attack. Start with Easy Pick, For the Money, and Caldera in the free races, then let our premium analysis guide your approach through the back half of the card. The full breakdown — pace scenarios, exotic tickets, and all — is waiting for subscribers at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there.

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