Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — July 22, 2026
Colonial Downs is rolling out an 8-race card on Wednesday, July 22nd, and the conditions are about as good as a mid-July Virginia afternoon gets — partly cloudy skies with temperatures sitting at a comfortable 83°F. No rain in the picture means the turf course should be holding firm, which matters a lot today because four of the eight races are contested on the grass.
The card opens with a pair of dirt sprints before shifting gears to a turf-heavy middle section, then wraps up with back-to-back mile routes on the grass. That's a lot of ground to cover, literally and figuratively, so let's set the table. TrackWiz analysis has combed through the full field today and found some genuine angles — including a longshot value play in Race 5 that premium subscribers are going to want to see before post time.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
A wide-open maiden claimer on the dirt sprint where TrackWiz ratings create a clear top tier but the morning line is spread across the field — expect some chaos first-time-outers breaking their maiden.
Shesa Mischieflady stands head and shoulders above this field on our ratings at 87.81 — nearly 22 points clear of the next horse, That Thing You Do. She carries an avg speed figure of 55, best or tied for best among horses who have figures to show, and trainer Maria Bowersock sends her out at a manageable 5/2 morning line in what looks like a prime spot. In a field full of maidens still seeking their first win, that rating gap is hard to dismiss.
That Thing You Do (6/1) is our place pick and represents solid value at a price. Trainer Gerard Ochoa puts him in at 6/1 on the morning line, and his 65.30 TrackWiz rating is a clear second-best in the race with an avg speed figure of 54. He's a logical contender to pick up a piece of this pot in a race with plenty of uncertainty.
Sedenya checks in third on our ratings at 57.50 and matches That Thing You Do's avg speed figure of 54, which keeps her firmly in the exotic conversation. Trainer Hugh I. McMahon sends her out at 5/2 alongside the morning-line co-favorite, suggesting the barn has confidence. As a show play in a maiden field this green, she's a reasonable hedge.
Race 2
Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt
This maiden special weight at five furlongs is a tight three-horse battle at the top of the ratings — Adelita, Sassy Sof, and Poll Position are separated by less than two points, making this a genuine pick-em among the top trio.
Adelita gets the nod on top here, leading the field with a 57.50 TrackWiz rating and the highest avg speed figure in the race at 56. Jareth Loveberry, a trusted Colonial Downs rider, picks up the mount for trainer Michael B. Campbell, and the 5/2 morning line reflects real market respect. In a bunched-up MSW field, Adelita's edge in speed figures could be the tiebreaker down the lane.
Sassy Sof sits just a fraction behind Adelita in the ratings (56.67) and comes in for trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo at 3/1 on the morning line. Without a published avg speed figure she carries some uncertainty, but D'Angelo is a trainer who shows up ready, and Marin in the irons gives her every chance to fire first time out. She's a natural underneath play in exactas.
Poll Position rounds out our top three at a 55.83 rating with an avg speed of 55, and she gets Mychel J. Sanchez aboard for trainer Michael J. Trombetta — a solid barn at this level. At 7/2, she's a fair price for a horse that figures to be near the front of this field throughout. Use her in trifectas to protect yourself if the top two swap positions.
Race 3
Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf
The first turf race of the card features a legitimate top horse going against some real competition — Diane Lee is the clear class of the field on our metrics, but Pearl of Pearl's win percentage makes her a dangerous second half of any exacta.
Diane Lee enters as our top-rated horse in this field with an 89.12 TrackWiz score and the highest avg speed figure in the race at 57 — a full point better than the next group. She's the 8/5 morning-line favorite for trainer Milan Milosevic and Jorge Ruiz, and her 12% career win rate tells a steady, consistent story. On paper, she's the one to beat and the ratings back it up convincingly.
Pearl of Pearl is a horse that demands respect at 7/2 — her 33% career win rate is eye-catching and easily the highest among the contenders in this race. Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo keeps her sharp, and her 82.30 rating makes her the second-best on our scale. Sonny Leon rides, and this combo has the look of a horse that could steal the show if Diane Lee hits any trouble.
Granuaile is our show pick at 8/1 and represents genuine value in the exotics. Her 72.05 rating puts her solidly in the top three, and a 56 avg speed figure ties her for second among horses with figures. Trainer Jose Corrales sends her in at a generous price — if the top two take each other on up front, Granuaile could be collecting at the window from third.
The first three races are open to every TrackWiz reader, and they give you a solid cross-section of the day's action. Shesa Mischieflady (5/2 morning line) leads our free picks in Race 1, a maiden claimer over 5½ furlongs of dirt — she carries our highest free-race rating at 87.81 and looks like a horse whose price could compress by post time, so don't sleep on getting your bets in early. In Race 2, Adelita draws our top spot in a maiden special weight sprint, though the rating reflects a genuinely wide-open field where pace dynamics will matter. Then in Race 3 we shift to the turf, and that's where things get interesting: Diane Lee comes in as a solid 8/5 morning-line favorite with a TrackWiz rating of 89.12, the highest of any free-race pick today. On a firm Colonial turf course with no weather concerns muddying the picture, a horse at that confidence level on this surface is exactly the kind of play we love to anchor a card around.
Full Card Analysis
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Bottom line for today at Colonial: Diane Lee is the free-card standout, Shesa Mischieflady gives you a high-rated maiden play to kick off the afternoon, and the premium card is loaded with value angles headlined by a 6/1 longshot worth serious consideration. Eight races, firm turf, and a lot of opportunity — the full picture is waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there.