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Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — July 22, 2026

July 22, 20268 racesAll Colonial Downs picks

This card ran on July 22, 2026.

Best bets at Colonial Downs, July 22, 2026

Race 12Shesa MischiefladyML 5/212:35 PM EDT

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Colonial Downs is rolling out an 8-race card on Wednesday, July 22nd, and the conditions are about as good as a mid-July Virginia afternoon gets — partly cloudy skies with temperatures sitting at a comfortable 83°F. No rain in the picture means the turf course should be holding firm, which matters a lot today because four of the eight races are contested on the grass.

The card opens with a pair of dirt sprints before shifting gears to a turf-heavy middle section, then wraps up with back-to-back mile routes on the grass. That's a lot of ground to cover, literally and figuratively, so let's set the table. TrackWiz analysis has combed through the full field today and found some genuine angles — including a longshot value play in Race 5 that premium subscribers are going to want to see before post time.

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Race 1

12:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer on the dirt sprint where TrackWiz ratings create a clear top tier but the morning line is spread across the field — expect some chaos first-time-outers breaking their maiden.

win2Shesa MischiefladyML 5/2

Shesa Mischieflady stands head and shoulders above this field on our ratings at 87.81 — nearly 22 points clear of the next horse, That Thing You Do. She carries an avg speed figure of 55, best or tied for best among horses who have figures to show, and trainer Maria Bowersock sends her out at a manageable 5/2 morning line in what looks like a prime spot. In a field full of maidens still seeking their first win, that rating gap is hard to dismiss.

place5That Thing You DoML 6/1

That Thing You Do (6/1) is our place pick and represents solid value at a price. Trainer Gerard Ochoa puts him in at 6/1 on the morning line, and his 65.30 TrackWiz rating is a clear second-best in the race with an avg speed figure of 54. He's a logical contender to pick up a piece of this pot in a race with plenty of uncertainty.

show7SedenyaML 5/2

Sedenya checks in third on our ratings at 57.50 and matches That Thing You Do's avg speed figure of 54, which keeps her firmly in the exotic conversation. Trainer Hugh I. McMahon sends her out at 5/2 alongside the morning-line co-favorite, suggesting the barn has confidence. As a show play in a maiden field this green, she's a reasonable hedge.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:05 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

This maiden special weight at five furlongs is a tight three-horse battle at the top of the ratings — Adelita, Sassy Sof, and Poll Position are separated by less than two points, making this a genuine pick-em among the top trio.

win1AdelitaML 5/2

Adelita gets the nod on top here, leading the field with a 57.50 TrackWiz rating and the highest avg speed figure in the race at 56. Jareth Loveberry, a trusted Colonial Downs rider, picks up the mount for trainer Michael B. Campbell, and the 5/2 morning line reflects real market respect. In a bunched-up MSW field, Adelita's edge in speed figures could be the tiebreaker down the lane.

place3Sassy SofML 3/1

Sassy Sof sits just a fraction behind Adelita in the ratings (56.67) and comes in for trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo at 3/1 on the morning line. Without a published avg speed figure she carries some uncertainty, but D'Angelo is a trainer who shows up ready, and Marin in the irons gives her every chance to fire first time out. She's a natural underneath play in exactas.

show2Poll PositionML 7/2

Poll Position rounds out our top three at a 55.83 rating with an avg speed of 55, and she gets Mychel J. Sanchez aboard for trainer Michael J. Trombetta — a solid barn at this level. At 7/2, she's a fair price for a horse that figures to be near the front of this field throughout. Use her in trifectas to protect yourself if the top two swap positions.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

The first three races are open to every TrackWiz reader, and they give you a solid cross-section of the day's action. Shesa Mischieflady (5/2 morning line) leads our free picks in Race 1, a maiden claimer over 5½ furlongs of dirt — she carries our highest free-race rating at 87.81 and looks like a horse whose price could compress by post time, so don't sleep on getting your bets in early. In Race 2, Adelita draws our top spot in a maiden special weight sprint, though the rating reflects a genuinely wide-open field where pace dynamics will matter. Then in Race 3 we shift to the turf, and that's where things get interesting: Diane Lee comes in as a solid 8/5 morning-line favorite with a TrackWiz rating of 89.12, the highest of any free-race pick today. On a firm Colonial turf course with no weather concerns muddying the picture, a horse at that confidence level on this surface is exactly the kind of play we love to anchor a card around.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The first turf race of the card features a legitimate top horse going against some real competition — Diane Lee is the clear class of the field on our metrics, but Pearl of Pearl's win percentage makes her a dangerous second half of any exacta.

win5Diane LeeML 8/5

Diane Lee enters as our top-rated horse in this field with an 89.12 TrackWiz score and the highest avg speed figure in the race at 57 — a full point better than the next group. She's the 8/5 morning-line favorite for trainer Milan Milosevic and Jorge Ruiz, and her 12% career win rate tells a steady, consistent story. On paper, she's the one to beat and the ratings back it up convincingly.

place6Pearl of PearlML 7/2

Pearl of Pearl is a horse that demands respect at 7/2 — her 33% career win rate is eye-catching and easily the highest among the contenders in this race. Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo keeps her sharp, and her 82.30 rating makes her the second-best on our scale. Sonny Leon rides, and this combo has the look of a horse that could steal the show if Diane Lee hits any trouble.

show2GranuaileML 8/1

Granuaile is our show pick at 8/1 and represents genuine value in the exotics. Her 72.05 rating puts her solidly in the top three, and a 56 avg speed figure ties her for second among horses with figures. Trainer Jose Corrales sends her in at a generous price — if the top two take each other on up front, Granuaile could be collecting at the window from third.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 4

2:06 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

White Rocks towers over this allowance optional claiming field with a near-perfect TrackWiz rating, but the real betting interest may be behind her — the secondary trio is genuinely competitive and could produce some value in exotics.

win1White RocksML 4/5

White Rocks is as close to a stone-cold top pick as you'll see — a 90.00 TrackWiz rating is elite, and the 4/5 morning line from trainer Arnaud Delacour signals serious barn confidence. Delacour is a trainer who places horses with purpose, and Samuel Marin takes the mount to complete a sharp connections package. Her 18% career win rate is respectable for a horse moving through allowance conditions, and at a mile on the dirt, she figures to control or sit close to the pace.

place4Sheilahs WarcloudML 9/2

Sheilahs Warcloud is the logical choice to fill the place slot at 9/2 — her 76.80 rating is a clear step ahead of the rest of the secondary group, and a 21% career win rate gives her real credibility. Sheldon Russell is a battle-tested jockey at this circuit, and trainer Justin J. Nixon has her at a competitive price. She's the most likely horse to be there if White Rocks falters.

show5DelrayML 7/2

Delray rounds out the top three at 70.60 on our ratings and also carries a 21% career win rate, matching Sheilahs Warcloud's win percentage. Mychel J. Sanchez picks up the mount for trainer Jamie Ness, giving her a proven rider in a race where positioning at a one-turn mile matters. At 7/2, she's not a big-price show play but she's a confident inclusion in trifecta boxes.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

2:37 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

An intriguing turf sprint where our top two picks are separated by just fractions of a rating point — Summer Bee at 6/1 versus even-money favorite Biz Biz Buzz sets up an interesting pace dynamic on the Colonial grass.

win7Summer BeeML 6/1

Summer Bee is our top selection in a race where our model says the favorite may be slightly vulnerable. She carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 82.71 and an avg speed figure of 56, and Sonny Leon is a sharp pick-up for trainer Michael Dini in what shapes up as a well-spotted spot. At 6/1 on the morning line, the potential payout relative to the rating edge makes her a legitimate best-bet candidate — this is the kind of value play that keeps you profitable long-term.

place1Biz Biz BuzzML EVN

Biz Biz Buzz is the even-money morning-line favorite and the second-rated horse at 82.35, with the field's highest avg speed figure of 58 — which is notable. Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo runs another horse in this race (K.C. Chief), showing he's comfortable in this spot, and Samuel Marin rides. She's the speed of the field and should be on the board, making her a natural place play even if Summer Bee gets there first.

show10Boss Is a PalML 4/1

Boss Is a Pal checks in third on our ratings at 76.18 with a 57 avg speed figure and a solid 19% career win rate — all numbers that belong in this race. Trainer Suzanne Stettinius sends her in at 4/1 with Jevian Toledo in the irons, one of the sharper jockeys in the Mid-Atlantic. She's the type of closer profile that sneaks into the money when the front-end speed burns itself out on Colonial's turf course.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

3:08 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A full, sprawling turf field at a mile where the morning-line favorite Beekman Street doesn't top our ratings — Flamenco Star is our pick to win at 5/1, giving bettors a legitimate reason to fade the chalk here.

win7Flamenco StarML 5/1

Flamenco Star leads our TrackWiz ratings for this field at 84.17 and jumps out as excellent value at 5/1 on the morning line. Trainer Jorge Duarte, Jr. has put Emmanuel Esquivel in the irons — a workmanlike combination — and a 14% career win rate on a mile turf course speaks to a horse with some route experience. When our model's top-rated horse is the third choice on the morning line, that's a green light to attack.

place6Keen TalentML 8/1

Keen Talent comes in at 8/1 as our place pick with a strong 73.81 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and a 10% career win rate that's respectable in a competitive claiming field. Trainer Anthony Farrior sends him out with Jeiron Barbosa, and his avg speed of 52 suggests he may appreciate a stalking trip as the pace develops around him. At 8/1, the place price could be worth attacking on its own.

show12Let FlyML 15/1

Let Fly might be the most interesting horse on the ticket at 15/1 morning line — despite being an afterthought to the public, her 67.28 TrackWiz rating slots her third in this field. Trainer A. Ferris Allen III gives her to Mychel J. Sanchez, who knows how to find the best trip around this course. Her 6% career win rate is modest, but the rating says she's capable of sneaking into the money at a price that makes trifecta plays very attractive.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 7

3:39 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

A quality turf allowance at a mile with a legitimate top horse and a competitive secondary cluster — Altamira Sur's 37% career win rate is the headline stat in a race where the morning line undervalues her at 7/2.

win6Altamira SurML 7/2

Altamira Sur is a standout selection here — an 86.35 TrackWiz rating heads the field, and her 37% career win rate is genuinely exceptional for any level of competition. Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo sends her out with Jorge Ruiz in a distance-surface combo that suits, and at 7/2 she offers real value for a horse our model rates this highly. She's the kind of allowance horse who handles routes confidently and figures to be involved from the top of the stretch.

place7SiouxseML 3/1

Siouxse is trained by the respected H. Graham Motion and draws Mychel J. Sanchez — a sharp pairing for a horse with a 75.20 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate. Motion is exceptionally skilled at placing turf horses, and Siouxse's avg speed of 54 is in line with the top of this field. She's a confident place selection and the most likely horse to split Altamira Sur and the field.

show5IntegrityML 5/2

Integrity is interesting at 5/2 — Brendan P. Walsh is one of the premier turf conditioners in the region, and a 33% career win rate is eye-catching for a horse going off at this price. Her 70.99 TrackWiz rating puts her third in the field, and Jareth Loveberry is a trusted pilot who can navigate a full turf field. She rounds out a logical top three and is a must-use in trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

4:10 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

Little Georgie is a heavy favorite in this maiden special weight turf mile, carrying a dominant rating that suggests she belongs in a much tougher spot — the question for bettors is whether she'll be over-bet and whether anyone can fill the exotic slots behind her.

win5Little GeorgieML 2/1

Little Georgie is as dominant as any horse on today's card relative to her field — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating dwarfs the competition, and trainer Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. is one of the sharpest first-out conditioners in the country, particularly on turf. Nik Juarez picks up the mount, and at 2/1 she's a deserved favorite in a maiden field that looks genuinely thin behind her. She's our confident top selection and the foundation for any exotics in this race.

place10Muskoka KattML 7/2

Muskoka Katt is our place pick at 7/2 with a 57.87 TrackWiz rating — a comfortable second-best in this field. Trainer Jordan Blair sends her out with Daniel Centeno, and an avg speed figure of 54 gives her a published performance baseline that many in this field lack. She profiles as a stalker who could clean up in the place spot if Little Georgie goes gate-to-wire as expected.

show3Charlotte's CayML 4/1

Charlotte's Cay is trained by Michael J. Trombetta, who has a sharp eye for maiden turf routes, and Mychel J. Sanchez aboard is never a throwaway. Her 55.00 TrackWiz rating slots her third in the field, and at 4/1 she's a live show play in a race where much of the field either lacks speed figures or carries minimal ratings. Use her confidently in trifectas underneath Little Georgie.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

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Bottom line for today at Colonial: Diane Lee is the free-card standout, Shesa Mischieflady gives you a high-rated maiden play to kick off the afternoon, and the premium card is loaded with value angles headlined by a 6/1 longshot worth serious consideration. Eight races, firm turf, and a lot of opportunity — the full picture is waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there.

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