Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — July 19, 2026

Wonder Girl checks in at 80.48 on our ratings — just a point behind the top pick — and Horacio Karamanos has a strong feel for the Colonial turf. The 7/2 morning line feels fair for a horse this closely rated to the favorite, and the 57 average speed figure ties her for the field-best mark. She's an ideal place play: competitive enough to hit the board, priced well enough to provide value.

Casa Juanita comes in at 79.79 — the third horse in a very tight cluster at the top — and the 8/1 morning line is where it gets interesting. She's only a couple of rating points off Bahamian Moon, which makes her a potential overlay in exactas and trifectas if the crowd pushes the top two short. Trainer Jill Spangler has her ready to fire, and Denis Vicente Araujo knows his way around this course.

Atlas Major sits at 57.50 in our model — just 1.5 points off the top — and Arnaud Delacour is one of the sharper trainers you'll find on any East Coast card. Samuel Marin in the irons is a quality pairing with a proven conditioner. At 5/2 on the morning line, Atlas Major offers solid value as a place play and makes a strong exacta partner alongside Money Man Mike.

Freedom Hall rounds out our top three at 55.00 with trainer Michael J. Trombetta having a strong track record with first-out runners. Mychel J. Sanchez is one of the meet's leading pilots, and the 4/1 morning line gives you reasonable show value in what should be a tightly contested finish. He's the logical third wheel in trifecta plays targeting the top two.

Farooq enters with a 79.03 TrackWiz rating — a full nine points behind Kraken but well clear of the rest — and Jeiron Barbosa picks up a live mount here. The 54 average speed figure is respectable, and trainer Katharine M. Voss has targeted this spot carefully. At 9/2 on the morning line, Farooq projects as the main threat to Kraken and is the clear place key in exotics.

Repurpose rates third in our model at 71.42 and flashes the field's top average speed figure at 57 — that raw speed number stands out in a maiden turf sprint where early position can matter. Trainer Thomas Garner sends out a horse that appears to have more experience than many rivals based on our data. At 2/1 on the morning line, Repurpose is fairly priced as the show component of trifecta tickets.

Classicals Finale rates at 72.82 in our model — second in the field — and Daniel Centeno gets the call for trainer Richard P. Sillaman. The 10% career win rate is modest, but the form profile our model is identifying here is worth respecting at 8/1 on the morning line. This is a horse that could be quietly primed for a big effort at a price that will pay well in exactas.

Don't Tell Deren brings a 71.14 rating and a 26% career win rate — a legitimately strong percentage for a claiming horse that suggests he fires regularly when conditions suit him. Xavier Perez has ridden well at Colonial, and the 7/2 morning line makes this one of the more reasonably priced logical contenders. In a race where Americandreammaker figures to control the pace scenario, a closer like Don't Tell Deren with a strong career win percentage could be set up perfectly.

Pure Bliss is the most accomplished horse in the field on a career win percentage basis at 33% — a standout number in any field. Taylor Kingsley gets the mount, and trainer Jorge Duarte, Jr. is sending out a horse that has consistently hit the board. At 10/1 on the morning line, Pure Bliss is a value bomb in exactas and trifectas underneath Frappart — a horse this consistent rarely goes off that long.

Clowning Around is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 from the powerful Wesley A. Ward barn, with Jareth Loveberry riding. The 57 average speed figure is the field-best, and the 20% career win rate is respectable. Our model has her third at 73.98 — not far off the top — and she'll likely run well, making her a safe show inclusion while offering better value as part of multi-race wagers than as a single.

Evershed rates second in our model at 71.34 and owns a 33% career win rate for trainer Arnaud Delacour — a Hall of Fame-caliber conditioner for turf routes. Jorge Ruiz gets the call, and the 3/1 morning line is fair for a horse with that kind of win frequency. The place profile here is strong: Evershed is the most likely horse in the field to finish second to Souper Zonda, and the exacta could return solid value.

Amie's Symphony sneaks in at 15/1 on the morning line with a 69.58 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — and Horacio Karamanos picks up a live-looking mount for Michael J. Trombetta. The 18% career win rate suggests she's capable of contributing to exacta and trifecta payouts regularly. At a price more than triple that of the favorite, she's a must-use in the show slot of any trifecta ticket and worth a small win-single flier as well.

Boat's a Rockin is our second choice at 66.31 in the model with an impressive 33% career win rate and the field's top average speed figure at 58 — that combination of raw speed and winning frequency is a potent one in turf routes. Horacio Karamanos rides for trainer Jonathan Maldonado, and at 10/1 on the morning line, this horse is significantly underestimated by the market. He's a strong play in exactas underneath Battle Call.

Class Photo rates at 66.02 — virtually identical to Boat's a Rockin — and matches the field-best career win percentage at 36%. Forest Boyce is a respected Colonial pilot, and trainer Suzanne Stettinius keeps her horses tight. At 8/1 on the morning line, Class Photo is a value inclusion in trifectas and should be on every ticket in a race where the top of the field is tightly bunched from second place down.