Daily Picks

Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — July 23, 2026

Thursday, July 23, 202611 racesColonial Downs

Colonial Downs is rolling out an 11-race card on Thursday, July 23, and the setup is just about as good as it gets for a summer afternoon at the track. Partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 76°F means the turf should be playing true — no moisture concerns, no heat-baked hardpan. Expect consistent, fair conditions across the board.

The card is overwhelmingly grass-centric, with nine of eleven races contested on the turf. If you've been tracking Colonial's turf bias tendencies this meet, today is a full-menu opportunity to put that knowledge to work. The lone dirt races — Races 4 and 7 — add a little variety, but the story of the day is unquestionably on the green.

Stakes action lands in Race 3, giving the card an early centerpiece, and the closer — Race 10 — features our highest-rated pick of the day in Burning Bridges. Plenty to dig into from first post to last.

Best Bets

Race 1

2:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 2 1/4 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden turf route at 2 1/4 miles where TrackWiz ratings separate the contenders from the pretenders — but several first-time starters cloud the picture at the top.

win6OnrushML 6/1

Onrush posts the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 82.71, a meaningful edge in a race full of first-time starters and horses with limited data. Trainer Jack Fisher has a strong hand with turf routers, and jockey Jamie Bargary gives this horse experienced guidance over the demanding 2 1/4-mile trip. The morning line of 6/1 looks like a gift if those figures translate — this is our top selection with room to spare over the rest of the field.

place5Coaches MeetingML 9/2

Coaches Meeting holds a 68.4 rating and brings a 16% career win rate into a maiden field where consistency matters. Trainer Katherine S. Neilson keeps this one sharp, and the 9/2 morning line suggests the market respects it — but TrackWiz analysis has it as a solid place contender behind our top pick.

show3Flash FrozenML 8/1

Flash Frozen at 8/1 is an intriguing inclusion with a 36% career win rate — best in the field — and a 64.04 rating that places it squarely in the mix for exotics. Trainer Thomas Garner gets a big price for that kind of winning pedigree, and this horse deserves a spot in your trifecta underneath.

Race 2

3:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 2 1/4 mi · Turf

Cameo Performance looks like the class of this maiden turf field, but Investment Mandate offers real value for those looking to build exotic tickets around a 6/1 price.

win7Cameo PerformanceML 5/2

Cameo Performance dominates the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — nearly 11 points clear of the next horse — and draws a perfect stalking trip in a 2 1/4-mile turf contest. Trainer Keri Brion is a recognized name in turf routing, and jockey Stephen Mulqueen is well-suited for the patient ride this distance demands. At 5/2 on the morning line, this is a short price but a justified one — the numbers say this is the best horse in the field.

place10Investment MandateML 6/1

Investment Mandate rates second in the field at 76.4 with a 33% career win rate, which is elite-level production for a horse priced at 6/1. Trainer Leslie F. Young sends this one out in good form, and Graham Watters in the irons is a capable partner — this is a strong place play at a workable price.

show4Give It a WhirlML 6/1

Give It a Whirl carries a 58.0 rating and a 25% career win rate at 6/1 — that's solid value for a show or exotic inclusion. Trainer Mark Beecher gives this horse a fair shot, and it profiles as the type that can run on in a long turf route without making a bold bid for the lead.

Race 3

3:55 PM EDT

Stakes · 2 1/4 mi · Turf

This stakes going 2 1/4 miles on turf features a legit pace battle brewing between morning-line favorites, with a potential overlay hiding in plain sight at 6/1.

win3CamanoeML 6/1

Camanoe tops the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 and is the best-priced horse at the top of the board — 6/1 against rivals rated meaningfully lower. The Jack Fisher-Freddie Procter combo has a sharp track record on turf, and a 28% career win rate shows this horse has converted when asked. In a stakes field at this marathon distance, class and fitness tend to surface late, and Camanoe has both.

place2TimetoshineML 5/2

Timetoshine sits second in the ratings at 80.01 and is the 5/2 morning-line choice, reflecting the market's confidence in trainer Mark Beecher. A 25% career win rate is respectable at stakes level, and Dan Nevin is a capable hand to navigate the long 2 1/4-mile trip — this horse belongs on top of every exotic ticket.

show4Gold CharmML 7/2

Gold Charm is the most interesting show play in this race with a staggering 58% career win rate — far and away the best of any runner — despite carrying a 70.39 rating. Trainer Cyril Murphy places horses well, and Jamie Bargary is an experienced jockey for the distance. At 7/2, the price is fair and the winning history is hard to ignore.

TrackWiz is opening up the first three races for all readers today, and there's genuine value in that early stretch. Race 1 gives us Onrush at 6/1 — a morning line that our model thinks underestimates this horse's chances on a turf course playing fair. Race 2 brings Cameo Performance in as the class of the maiden field with the highest rating of the three free races (87.81), making the 5/2 morning line look about right for a horse who should be heavily supported. Then Race 3 — the Stakes — has us on Camanoe at 6/1, which is where casual bettors might find the most interesting overlay if the crowd undervalues the turf pedigree angle.

All three free races go 2¼ miles on turf, which is a unique distance that rewards horses with genuine stamina and turf breeding. Pace scenarios at this trip tend to unfold slowly before a genuine stretch battle — don't get caught up in early speed bias today in these longer routes.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

4:35 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The allowance sprint on dirt sets up as a three-horse battle at the top, with the morning-line favorite Jolly by Golly facing two horses that TrackWiz rates meaningfully higher — expect some fireworks at the windows.

win3OverspentML 4/1

Overspent carries the field's top TrackWiz rating of 85.62 and a 30% career win rate, making it a standout on paper despite going off at 4/1 on the morning line. Trainer Mark Shuman places runners well in allowance company, and jockey Samuel Marin handles dirt sprints with a confident style. The gap between Overspent and the 7/5 favorite Jolly by Golly in the ratings is significant — this looks like real overlay territory.

place6SkillianML 2/1

Skillian rates 83.91 — second-best in the field — and carries a 33% career win rate with Jevian Toledo up, one of the circuit's sharper jockeys in sprint situations. Trainer Lacey Gaudet spots this one well, and at 2/1 morning line, the price reflects legitimate quality. This horse threatens to beat our top pick outright.

show4Mo's GlitterML 7/2

Mo's Glitter brings a 33% career win rate and an 81.72 TrackWiz rating — third-best — with Paco Lopez in the irons for the Michael Trombetta barn. Lopez consistently fires in sprint company, and at 7/2, Mo's Glitter is a comfortable show play and a logical trifecta piece behind the top two.

Race 5

5:05 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden claiming field on the short turf sprint, but two horses stand out sharply from the rest — and both are at prices worth writing home about.

win2I Love InesML 7/2

I Love Ines leads the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and, notably, posts the highest average speed figure at 57 in a field where most runners are clustered in the low-to-mid 50s. Trainer Angel M. Rodriguez pairs with jockey Luis Fuenmayor for what looks like a well-prepped effort on the turf. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is our best-bet selection in Race 5 — the class edge is substantial.

place5Lucky LisML 5/2

Lucky Lis checks in at 82.11 with an average speed of 55, and Paco Lopez takes the mount — a significant jockey upgrade and a clear signal that connections are confident. Trainer Jose J. Magana has this one primed, and at 5/2 as the morning-line second choice, the market and the numbers agree: this horse runs well for a piece.

show14Sassy SangriaML 4/1

Sassy Sangria grades out third in the field at 70.01 with an average speed of 52 on the short turf, which plays well in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint. Trainer Kerri Raven sends this one out with Lopez in the irons (double-booked here — worth watching for a jockey change), and at 4/1, the price is fair for a show position in what shapes up as a fast-pace scenario.

Race 6

5:35 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

An all-maiden turf sprint at 1 1/16 miles where the top of the TrackWiz ratings is almost impossibly clustered — three horses within two points of each other set up a genuine photo-finish field.

win6OmahamoiselleML 6/1

Omahamoiselle tops the ratings at 82.71, matching the highest mark we've seen in any maiden race today, and trainer Benjamin W. Perkins Jr. is a highly regarded turf handler at Colonial. Sonny Leon gets the call and is a proven commodity on this circuit — when a horse this well-regarded opens at 6/1 in a maiden field, that's a number worth attacking. The TrackWiz edge over the morning-line favorite is real.

place8Magic BeamML 5/1

Magic Beam rates 81.25 — just a half-point off the top — with an average speed of 54 and Gavin Ashton up for trainer Elizabeth Merryman. The 5/1 morning line puts this squarely in the value zone for place betting, especially given that the top three horses in this field are separated by less than two rating points. Toss Magic Beam on top of every exotic wager.

show7SmileawayML 6/1

Smileaway is just 0.26 points behind Magic Beam in the ratings at 80.99, with a 54 average speed and Samuel Marin in the irons for trainer Karen Dennehy. At 6/1, this horse is interchangeable with the top picks on numbers alone and offers real trifecta value — in a race this competitive, the third slot is wide open.

Race 7

6:06 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

A maiden dirt sprint at 7 furlongs where the morning-line even-money favorite actually rates third on our figures — and a 12/1 shot carries the best TrackWiz number in the field.

win8Hurricane LynnML 12/1

Hurricane Lynn posts the top TrackWiz rating at 73.96 and clocks a 55 average speed figure — both best in field — yet opens at a generous 12/1 on the morning line. Trainer Kieron Magee sends this one out with Samuel Marin, who is riding sharply today, and the pace scenario in this field could set up perfectly for a closer. When the numbers and the price both point the same direction, you take note.

place5EndorseML EVN

Endorse is the morning-line favorite at even money with a 67.5 rating, and the Sheldon Russell-Brittany Russell husband-and-wife trainer-jockey combo is a powerful angle in maiden company. The rating places Endorse second in the field, and the market clearly expects a big effort — a place ticket here is low-risk, high-probability.

show2Bon VivantML 8/1

Bon Vivant rates 66.93 — third-best in this field — with a 52 average speed and Sonny Leon in the saddle for trainer Antonio Sano. At 8/1 morning line, this is legitimate show value in a race where the top three by our numbers are separated by just seven points. Sano ships winners to Colonial, and Leon is at home on the dirt.

Race 8

6:37 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A baker's dozen of maiden claimers on the short turf with one horse — Farooq — standing well above the rest on TrackWiz figures, even if the morning line keeps this race honest.

win11FarooqML 5/1

Farooq leads all runners with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and a solid 54 average speed figure in a field where the second-best rated horse (Governor Dutton at 68.26) is nearly 16 points back. Trainer Katharine Voss sends this one out with Jeiron Barbosa, a jockey who fires regularly at Colonial. The 5/1 morning line is a fair price for the top-rated runner in a large maiden field — this is the most confident selection in Race 8.

place5Governor DuttonML 6/1

Governor Dutton checks in at 68.26 with a 54 average speed, and Rajiv Maragh taking the mount for trainer Mary Lightner is an encouraging sign. In a field this size, the second-best horse on numbers typically runs into the exacta, and Governor Dutton at 6/1 gives you both the value and the quality to back up the win pick.

show1Red SeaML 7/2

Red Sea tops the morning line at 7/2 as the public's top choice, backed by Paco Lopez for trainer A. Ferris Allen III, with the second-best speed figure in the field at 56. The TrackWiz rating of 67.92 lands third behind Farooq and Governor Dutton, but Lopez's presence adds a real-world edge that the numbers don't always capture — a show play here is well-supported.

Race 9

7:08 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A 14-horse claiming turf field at a mile and a sixteenth that is absolutely loaded with horses in the 50-75 rating range — but one horse, Bint Mischief, grades out on another level entirely.

win4Bint MischiefML 7/2

Bint Mischief leads the enormous field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — more than 10 points clear of the next horse — and brings a 12% career win rate in claiming company where that margin in quality is decisive. Trainer Monica McGoey pairs with Jorge Ruiz for a 7/2 morning-line shot on turf at 1 1/16 miles, a trip that suits the profile. The rating advantage in a field this large is a genuine edge, and we're confident in Bint Mischief as the top selection.

place8ApicturesworthML 8/1

Apicturesworth rates second in the field at 75.84 with a 25% career win rate — tied for highest in the field — bringing legitimate winning credentials into claiming company. Sunday Diaz Jr. navigates for trainer Ollie Figgins III at 8/1, a price that represents solid overlay value for a horse with both the numbers and the winning history to contend. A place ticket here is well worth it.

show5Too Loose La TrekML 10/1

Too Loose La Trek rates 74.9 — just a fraction behind Apicturesworth — with a 12% career win rate and Mychel Sanchez up for trainer Michael Trombetta. Trombetta is a sharp claiming trainer who finds spots well, and at 10/1, this is a show play with real upside if the pace sets up for a sustained run at the end of the 1 1/16-mile trip.

Race 10

7:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Burning Bridges is a potential steamroller in this claiming turf sprint — the TrackWiz rating is 23 points clear of the field, and the 2/1 morning line might actually be a value price.

win6Burning BridgesML 2/1

Burning Bridges posts an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest of any horse on today's card — and pairs it with a 25% career win rate and the best average speed figure in the race at 57. Trainer Mark Casse is one of the elite names in North American racing, and Sonny Leon provides a top-tier jockey connection. The 2/1 morning line is short but justified — when the numbers scream this loudly, you don't fade the horse on price alone.

place10ParkesML 6/1

Parkes rates 65.98 — tied for second in the field — with a 12% career win rate and a sharp 56 average speed figure for trainer Suzanne Stettinius. Jevian Toledo is an excellent booking in sprint turf company, and at 6/1, Parkes makes for a clean exacta partner with Burning Bridges atop the ticket.

show9NeonateML 6/1

Neonate matches Parkes exactly at 65.98 in the TrackWiz ratings with a 12% career win rate and a 57 average speed — identical numbers but a potentially different running style that could create separation in the final furlong. Trainer Steve Klesaris has a good feel for sprint turf, and Jorge Ruiz is capable in this spot. At 6/1, Neonate is a legitimate show alternative or trifecta option alongside Parkes.

Race 11

8:11 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The closing allowance optional claiming on turf features Papa Golf as a massive ratings outlier in an 11-horse field full of competitive-but-flawed résumés — looks like a solid play to end the card.

win7Papa GolfML 3/1

Papa Golf dominates the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — more than 26 points clear of the next-best horse — and carries a 22% career win rate with a 55 average speed figure. Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo spots this one perfectly at the AOC level, and Jevian Toledo in the irons is a premium jockey booking for the 1 1/16-mile turf trip. At 3/1 morning line, this is the best structured win bet of the late card.

place5FuerteventuraML 5/2

Fuerteventura rates second in the field at 60.44 with a 22% career win rate — matching Papa Golf's production — and draws Paco Lopez for trainer Jamie Ness in what looks like a sharp setup. The 5/2 morning line puts Fuerteventura as the public's pick, and our numbers agree it belongs second; a place ticket here offers solid coverage with real probability.

show9NaptownML 4/1

Naptown grades out third at 59.65 with a 23% career win rate — actually the best winning percentage among the top three by ratings — for trainer Jose J. Magana with Jorge Ruiz in the irons. At 4/1, this is a well-priced show play with a horse that clearly knows how to find the winner's circle, making it a natural trifecta anchor beneath the top two.

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It's a strong Thursday card at Colonial — fair turf, a stakes race midway through, and a legitimate top selection in Burning Bridges capping the day. Start with Onrush, Cameo Performance, and Camanoe in the free races, then let TrackWiz's full-card analysis guide your exotic plays through the back half. Subscribers, your complete race-by-race breakdown, pace projections, and ticket builds are ready to go. Not subscribed yet? Head to our pricing page and get in before the first race.

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