Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — July 16, 2026

Sisu Spirit is our place play at 3/1 with a rating of 56.67 — razor-close to the top pick — and importantly, has a recorded average speed of 54, meaning she's already been around the track. Rajiv Maragh is a capable rider who can place a horse in good position early, and trainer Mary Lightner has her ready. In a field full of unknowns, Sisu Spirit's data points are a genuine edge.

Paris by Night slots in at 4/1 on the morning line with a 55.0 rating and a 52 average speed — she's seen the track and has the profile of a horse who can be involved late. Trainer John J. Robb sends her out with Xavier Perez up, a combo that could get her into contention at a fair price. In maiden dirt sprints with a murky pace picture, a horse with real race experience often outruns her odds.

Royal County Down checks in at a 55.83 rating and 7/2 on the morning line for trainer Brendan P. Walsh — a conditioner with the chops to have this horse primed on debut. Jorge Ruiz takes the ride, and while there's no average speed on record, Walsh's program horses tend to be ready first time out. The rating is virtually dead-even with the top pick, making Royal County Down the most logical backup in the exacta.

Millford Lass at 9/2 for trainer Keri Brion is worth a long look in the show spot. Brion has a knack for placing horses well in maiden turf spots, and a TrackWiz rating of 54.17 puts her squarely in the middle of the contenders. Samuel Marin gets the call, and in a 14-horse field where pace can get messy, a horse with a calm, professional trainer on the card is always worth including in your tickets.

Vaya Jeffe is the eye-opener of this card at 15/1 on the morning line despite posting the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 69.58. Jeiron Barbosa gets the mount for trainer Anthony Farrior, and a 14% career win rate shows this horse has crossed the wire first before. When our ratings diverge this sharply from the morning line, it's a signal worth paying attention to — Vaya Jeffe is a legitimate value play across the board.

Parkes at 10/1 is worth slotting into your exotics with a rating of 58.38 and the highest average speed in the field at 56. Trainer Suzanne Stettinius sends Jevian Toledo to the saddle — a capable rider who can navigate a turf route field. A 12% career win rate isn't flashy, but the combination of that top speed figure and double-digit odds makes Parkes a prime show candidate in a race where the pace picture could set up for a late runner.

Lex's Game comes in with a 76.98 rating and a recorded average speed of 53, giving trainer Brittany T. Russell's charge a believable profile in this spot. Sheldon Russell gets the mount — keeping the horse in-house — and at 6/1, the same price as our top pick, Lex's Game represents solid value for place and exacta purposes. When two horses are priced identically but our ratings separate them clearly, the second horse makes an attractive backup.

Bourbon Dream at 4/1 carries a 68.98 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field — with Samuel Marin up for trainer Fausto Gutierrez. An average speed of 53 on turf is workmanlike, and the 4/1 price is fair for what this horse brings to the table. In a maiden turf route where fitness and pace awareness matter, Bourbon Dream's consistent speed profile makes her a logical third piece for trifecta players.

Tigre posts an 83.31 TrackWiz rating — just a touch behind Tok Tok — and gets the 9/2 morning line for trainer Monica McGoey with Jorge Ruiz in the saddle. An average speed of 54 matches several rivals, but the overall rating gap over the rest of the field is meaningful. Tigre's 11% career win rate is modest, but the rating says this horse is performing above that figure right now, making the place ticket a confident play.

Bodecream comes in with a 77.82 TrackWiz rating, a 20% career win rate, and a 5/1 morning line — and there's a case to be made this horse is undervalued relative to what our model sees. Mychel J. Sanchez gets the mount for trainer Jamie Ness, who also saddles Mo Rewards in this race, giving the barn two credible shots. With a 54 average speed and a strong career win percentage, Bodecream is the type of horse who can sit close to the pace and grind out a check in a competitive claiming field.

Light de Night at 3/1 is the logical backup with a 73.96 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and Paco Lopez, arguably the meeting's top jockey, climbing aboard for trainer Jorge Duarte Jr. An average speed of 54 over a turf mile is a respectable profile, and with a clear number two rating, this horse fits naturally as the place horse in your exactas. If Blazing Bridgette meets any trouble, Light de Night is the one most likely to capitalize.

Hop to It at 5/1 is worth including in your trifecta tickets, posting a rating of 64.48 — third in the field — with an average speed of 54 to match. Horacio Karamanos gets the call for trainer Tim Woolley, and the 5/1 morning line price makes this an attractive show option in a field where the top two are fairly obvious. At a turf mile for maidens, the race can back up and bring a hold-your-position type into contention, which is exactly the kind of horse Hop to It appears to be.