Daily Picks

Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — July 13, 2026

Monday, July 13, 20268 racesColonial Downs

Colonial Downs is open for business on a warm Monday afternoon — partly cloudy skies, 83°F, and eight races spread across dirt and turf. Conditions look manageable for both surfaces, and with no serious weather concerns, expect the turf courses to play fair throughout the day.

Today's card is a nice mix of maiden claimers, claiming sprints, and a couple of allowance spots on the grass — something for every type of bettor. The first three races are free for all TrackWiz users, and we've got strong opinions in each of them. Races 4 through 8 go deeper on the turf side of the card, including a pair of optional claimers and a turf allowance that shapes up as one of the most interesting contests of the day.

Eight races, two surfaces, and a handful of legitimate value plays scattered across the card. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming opener where two horses dominate the TrackWiz ratings and the rest of the field looks like filler — the real question is whether the morning-line favorite can hold off a stablemate-level rival.

win6J C's BoysML 8/5

J C's Boys tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.9 and carries the morning-line favoritism at 8/5 for good reason. Jevian Toledo is one of the sharper sticks in this colony and gives the connections a legitimate tactical edge in a short six-furlong sprint. The average speed figure of 55 leads all horses with recorded numbers, and in a maiden field this thin on talent, that edge matters. This is as close to a must-use as you'll find in a maiden claimer.

place4Pippin the WarriorML 2/1

Pippin the Warrior sits just a fraction behind J C's Boys in the ratings at 88.54, making this a very tight 1-2 at the top of the field. Trainer Hugh I. McMahon sends him out with Jareth Loveberry up, a solid combo, and at 2/1 on the morning line there's decent value if he runs his number. He's the natural key underneath in exactas.

show3Charge It BabyML 2/1

Charge It Baby draws the eye at 2/1 on the morning line despite having no average speed figure on record — that blank could indicate a first-time starter or limited data, which adds some mystery. Paco Lopez is one of the top pilots on the circuit and rarely wastes his time on a bad mount. At a TrackWiz rating of 58.33, he's clearly a tier below the top two, but Lopez's presence makes him a reasonable show ticket in a thin maiden field.

Race 2

5:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite and the top-rated horse tell different stories in this six-furlong dirt claimer — a potential overlay lurks mid-card while the pace figures to be honest and contested.

win4In Honor of JeffML 6/1

In Honor of Jeff is our top-rated horse in Race 2 at 82.71, yet the morning line has him sitting at 6/1 — that gap between rating and odds is exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis is built to identify. Jean Gregor Briceno gets the call for trainer Alberto Delgado, and with a 20% career win rate, this horse has proven he knows how to find the wire. His average speed figure of 52 is middle of the pack, but the overall profile grades out well above horses priced more aggressively.

place1Fayes HeartML 5/2

Fayes Heart brings a strong 28% career win rate — tied for best in the field — and is trained by John J. Robb, who has a knack for conditioning claimers to hit the board consistently. At 5/2 on the morning line, she won't offer huge value, but with Xavier Perez aboard and an average speed of 53, she's a dependable underneath play in your exactas and trifectas.

show6Blo By'emML 5/2

Blo By'em at 5/2 is interesting despite a modest 9% career win rate, because the TrackWiz rating of 71.78 suggests she performs better than her win percentage implies — a lot of near-misses in her past. Trainer Kieron Magee keeps her competitive and Jose E. Vargas is a capable rider. She's worth including in the show spot and as a minor exotic piece.

Race 3

5:35 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

A starter allowance going seven furlongs on dirt with a clear standout at the top of the ratings but a group of live 25-30% winners underneath who could make this more of a race than the favorite's price suggests.

win8Zero BlitzML 3/1

Zero Blitz is the horse to beat here, and it isn't particularly close on paper. A TrackWiz rating of 87.08 towers over the field, and that 54% career win rate is extraordinary — more than half his career starts have ended in victory, which is an elite figure at any level. Jorge Ruiz picks up the mount and he's been sharp around this oval. At 3/1 on the morning line, Zero Blitz is fairly priced but absolutely worth anchoring as your win selection.

place1RampagiusML 2/1

Rampagius is the second choice at 2/1 on the morning line, and Paco Lopez's presence in the irons is a significant endorsement. His 28% career win rate matches Bold Diversion for third-best in the field, and a TrackWiz rating of 62.56 gives him the clearest path to the place hole. The seven-furlong distance on dirt suits a horse with his stamina profile.

show7Freeze the FireML 7/2

Freeze the Fire at 7/2 is a sneaky good show play — a rating of 61.77 and a 25% career win rate give him solid credentials, and trainer John E. Salzman Jr. is a seasoned conditioner who knows how to place horses to hit the board. Jevian Toledo rode him here, and Toledo's sharp clock sense over this track is a genuine plus. He's a worthy third piece in your exotic tickets.

The early dirt sprint portion of the card is where we start building the bankroll. J C's Boys opens the day as our top-rated horse at 88.9 on TrackWiz analysis — a solid number for a maiden claimer — and while 8/5 isn't a gift, the rating supports taking the short price. Race 2 is where casual bettors might be sleeping: In Honor of Jeff opens at 6/1 in a claiming sprint, and our numbers say that's a generous morning line for a horse with this profile. Longshots at fair prices are how you build tickets, not just favorites.

Race 3 steps up to 7 furlongs in a Starter Allowance — a class level that rewards horses who have proven themselves in prior claiming company. Zero Blitz grades out at 87.08 and lands on the morning line at 3/1, which sets up nicely. The slight distance stretch to 7 furlongs on dirt tends to sort out the field, and our pace projections favor horses with tactical speed over pure front-runners. Keep an eye on how the dirt is playing through the early races — any bias that emerges will matter here.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:05 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

One mile on turf in an optional claiming format produces a wide-open top half of the field, with four horses bunched between ratings of 73 and 80 and a couple of legitimate value angles hiding in plain sight.

win8DevastatingML 6/1

Devastating opens at 6/1 on the morning line but grades out as the top-rated horse in the field at 80.12 — another TrackWiz overlay worth circling. Trainer W. Robert Bailes doubles up in this race, showing stable confidence, and Forest Boyce is a reliable veteran who handles turf routes well. The 14% career win rate isn't flashy, but the overall rating profile suggests he consistently runs competitive numbers, and the mile on turf fits the type.

place3GripenML 10/1

Gripen is a legitimately intriguing value play at 10/1 on the morning line despite carrying the third-highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 76.88. A 28% career win rate is strong, and his average speed figure of 57 is the best in the field outright. Trainer W. Robert Bailes also has Devastating in here, but Gripen's speed numbers make him a real threat to outrun his price and provide enormous exacta value.

show5DuchessaML 3/1

Duchessa at 3/1 brings a 33% career win rate — best in the field — and trainer Arnaud Delacour is one of the more respected turf conditioners on the East Coast circuit. Samuel Marin rides, and while the average speed of 53 is modest, Delacour's horses tend to run well fresh on grass routes. She's a logical show anchor and key in the place exotics.

Race 5

6:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Five and a half furlongs on turf with a double-digit field and a clear top two in the ratings — but the pace scenario on a short turf sprint could create chaos that benefits closers and trips up front-runners.

win10Noah ChanceML 2/1

Noah Chance is the TrackWiz top pick here at a rating of 88.54 and comes in as the 2/1 morning-line choice. What stands out beyond the rating is the average speed figure of 58 — tied for highest in the field — which in a sprint on turf is the kind of raw number that tends to hold up. Xavier Perez gets the mount for trainer John J. Robb, and Robb conditions horses well for these short turf sprints. The 24% career win rate is respectable, and at 2/1, this is a legitimate odds-on type priced with a bit of fair value.

place1WhatdoyouthinkmarkML 9/2

Whatdoyouthinkmark — yes, the name is a mouthful — brings a 33% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 81.96, second in the field. Trainer Dino DiZeo sends him out from the rail with Jareth Loveberry aboard, and Loveberry is one of the better turf riders in this colony. An average speed of 55 is solid, and at 9/2 on the morning line, he's a prime underneath target in every exotic structure.

show8Biz Biz BuzzML 7/2

Biz Biz Buzz rounds out our top three at a rating of 78.53 and opens at 7/2 — making him the third choice by price but offering real speed numbers to back it up. His average speed figure of 58 matches Noah Chance for best in the field, which tells you his raw ability is there. Samuel Marin rides for Jose Francisco D'Angelo, and the 16% career win rate understates how often this type runs into the money on turf sprints.

Race 6

7:05 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An optional claimer at six furlongs on dirt where the morning-line favorite is also the clear ratings standout — but three horses with 33% career win rates lurk underneath and could make this trifecta spicy.

win8Cool CowboyML 2/1

Cool Cowboy checks every box here — TrackWiz rating of 88.54, the top mark in the field by a wide margin, and he opens as the 2/1 morning-line choice. Emmanuel Esquivel gets the mount for trainer Mark Simms Jr., and the average speed figure of 56 is tied for best in the race. An 18% career win rate may seem modest, but his overall form profile is clearly superior to this optional claiming field, and the six-furlong dirt sprint is a distance where his raw speed translates directly.

place5SkynetML 4/1

Skynet is our place selection at 4/1, and the TrackWiz rating of 74.72 makes him the clear second-best horse on paper. Trainer Roddina A. Barrett sends him out with Jareth Loveberry up — a meaningful jockey upgrade angle — and his average speed of 56 matches Cool Cowboy at the top of the field. The 16% career win rate suggests he finds the board more than he wins, which makes him a natural place play.

show1SometimeML 7/2

Sometime at 7/2 brings a 16% career win rate and a rating of 67.26, third in the field. Paco Lopez is a significant presence in the irons, and trainer Phillip Capuano has a solid read on optional claimers at this level. The average speed of 54 is modest but functional for a show ticket, and Lopez's ability to place horses perfectly in a short sprint makes Sometime a legitimate third-leg exotic piece.

Race 7

7:36 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A full field of twelve in a five-and-a-half furlong turf allowance with genuine depth — the top rating sits in the middle of the program, a pair of Trombetta trainees could clash, and a 60% career winner on the rail makes this a fascinating puzzle.

win2CrossingthechannelML 4/1

Crossingthechannel is our top selection with a TrackWiz rating of 85.62 and opens at 4/1 on the morning line, which looks like fair value in a wide-open field. Trainer Michael J. Trombetta, one of the more accomplished conditioners on the Mid-Atlantic circuit, also enters Virtuosity — but it's Crossingthechannel that grades higher, with a 40% career win rate that speaks to consistent competitiveness. Mychel J. Sanchez takes the mount, and for a short turf sprint, his pace instincts are a real asset. This horse looks like the one to beat.

place8Creed's VisionML 6/1

Creed's Vision opens at 6/1 and his TrackWiz rating of 73.49 puts him squarely in contention behind our top pick. Trainer Arnaud Delacour is a name that commands respect on any turf card — he consistently gets horses to run their best on grass, and a 20% career win rate for this type is solid. Jorge Ruiz rides, and at 6/1, the place price on Creed's Vision makes him an attractive exacta partner.

show4VirtuosityML 5/1

Virtuosity at 5/1 is the second Trombetta entry and rates 70.07 — third in the field. Paco Lopez in the irons for a Trombetta trainee on turf is a combination that wins races, even at a 10% career win rate. An average speed of 56 is competitive in this field, and the barn's obvious confidence in running two horses here suggests both deserve respect. He's a sensible show play and trifecta inclusion.

Race 8

8:07 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A maiden claiming route on turf with an eleven-horse field of winless horses — no career wins to analyze, so breeding, speed figures, and trainer-jockey connections become the key differentiators in what could be a chaotic affair.

win4Yeah GloML 6/1

Yeah Glo tops our TrackWiz ratings at 61.76 in a field where separation is hard to find, and Sofia Vives picks up the mount for trainer Karen Dennehy. The average speed figure of 54 is right in the middle of the field but the overall rating profile grades out cleanly above the competition. In a maiden turf route where the form is uncertain across the board, that ratings edge combined with a capable jockey-trainer duo gives Yeah Glo the best chance to break her maiden here.

place3Dream OvertureML 5/1

Dream Overture at 5/1 on the morning line is trained by Hugh I. McMahon, who also saddles Zirconia in the same race — and McMahon doesn't split his resources without reason. Jareth Loveberry gets the call, which is a meaningful rider angle in this context. An average speed of 55 and a rating of 59.57 make Dream Overture the logical second choice and a key place play in your exotic tickets.

show9Paynted by NancyML 12/1

Paynted by Nancy opens at 12/1 and rates 58.04 — third in the field, only a hair behind Dream Overture. Her average speed figure of 56 is one of the better marks in the race, and Mychel J. Sanchez is an experienced hand for these maiden turf routes. At 12/1, she's the kind of live longshot that can inflate trifecta and superfecta payouts considerably — worth including as a show anchor and deeper exotic play.

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Bottom line for today at Colonial Downs: J C's Boys is the anchor play in Race 1, In Honor of Jeff is the value dart in Race 2, and Zero Blitz rounds out the free card in Race 3. All three are worth including in your early tickets. The back half of the card — five premium races with multiple live longshots and exotic opportunities — is fully mapped out for subscribers. Don't go in blind on the turf races; get the complete TrackWiz analysis and build smarter tickets today.

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