Daily Picks

Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — July 17, 2026

July 17, 20268 racesAll Colonial Downs picks

This card ran on July 17, 2026.

Best bets at Colonial Downs, July 17, 2026

Race 12Shesa MischiefladyML 5/212:35 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

A free account opens race 2 too. Premium opens all 8, with AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet, which splits one bet across the horses you like.

Join Free See plans · from $9.99

It's a hot Friday at Colonial Downs — 91°F under partly cloudy skies — and the track is serving up a full 8-race card that leans heavily on the grass. Four of today's eight races run over the turf course, which figures to be a key factor in how you build your tickets today.

The card runs the full spectrum from maiden claimers kicking things off in Race 1 to a pair of turf routes closing things out in Races 7 and 8. That mix of short sprints, turf dashes, and classic one-mile routes gives bettors plenty of angles to work across the afternoon.

Our TrackWiz analysis has identified standouts throughout the card — including a couple of heavy favorites worth trusting and at least one price horse with enough upside to anchor an exotic ticket. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint on the dirt where TrackWiz ratings create a clear hierarchy — one horse grades out well above the field, but three others are bunched close enough to make the exacta tricky.

win2Shesa MischiefladyML 5/2

Shesa Mischieflady (2) is the standout in this field by a wide margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — more than 23 points clear of the next-best horse. She also shows an average speed figure of 55, topping the horses in this field who have recorded figures. Trainer Maria Bowersock puts her out at a 5/2 morning line that looks accurate, and with Samuel Marin up, she gets a capable hand for a maiden who should be rolling forward.

place5That Thing You DoML 6/1

That Thing You Do (5) checks in with the second-highest rating in the field at 64.57 and an average speed figure of 54, showing she belongs in the conversation for the minor spots. At 6/1 on the morning line with Gerard Ochoa training and Mychel J. Sanchez in the irons, she offers some real value underneath if Shesa Mischieflady handles her business in front.

show7SedenyaML 5/2

Sedenya (7) rates at 57.5 with a 54 average speed figure, slotting neatly into the show picture in a race where the back half of the field has question marks. Luis Fuenmayor gets the call for trainer Hugh I. McMahon, and at 5/2 on the morning line, she's a logical ticket to include in exacta and trifecta plays.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:05 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

Five furlongs on the dirt for maiden special weight runners, and the ratings are remarkably compressed at the top — three horses within two points of each other set up what could be a genuinely competitive result.

win1AdelitaML 5/2

Adelita (1) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 57.5 and carries the highest average speed figure in the field at 56, giving her a small but meaningful edge over the competition. Trainer Michael B. Campbell sends her out with Jareth Loveberry aboard — a jockey who knows how to get a horse positioned from the inside post. At 5/2 on the morning line, the market agrees she's the one to beat.

place3Sassy SofML 3/1

Sassy Sof (3) grades at 56.67, just a fraction behind the top pick, and trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo knows this circuit well. She's a logical play underneath at 3/1 on the morning line, especially with Samuel Marin in the saddle bringing some experience to what could be a first-time starter situation.

show2Poll PositionML 7/2

Poll Position (2) rates at 55.83 with a 55 average speed figure, sitting right in the thick of this clustered trio at the top. Trainer Michael J. Trombetta is no stranger to placing maiden horses intelligently, and Mychel J. Sanchez gives her a sharp pilot — she's a strong show play in exotics at a reasonable 7/2 price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Three races are fully unlocked for all TrackWiz readers today. Race 1 is a dirt maiden claimer going 5½ furlongs where Shesa Mischieflady (morning line 5/2, TrackWiz rating 87.81) tops our board and looks like the class of a fairly thin field. Race 2 sends maiden special weight runners out for a quick 5-furlong dirt sprint — these first-time and lightly raced types can be tough to pin down, but Adelita at 5/2 earns the nod on our projections. Then Race 3 shifts to the turf for a 5½-furlong claiming dash where Diane Lee jumps off the page at 8/5 on the morning line with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating — she's the strongest free-race selection of the afternoon and worth making a cornerstone of any early multi-race wager.

One theme connecting these free picks: the dirt sprints in Races 1 and 2 could see some pace pressure in the heat, so horses that can stalk rather than lead may have a late edge. On the turf in Race 3, Diane Lee's profile suggests she can handle whatever scenario unfolds.

Free with an account

Open the next race free

A free account opens the first 2 races at every track, and every race at our Track of the Day. No credit card needed.

Create a free account Sign in

Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A claiming tilt on the turf at 5½ furlongs features two standout horses well clear of the rest — the question is whether the heavy morning-line favorite can hold off a well-meant closer with serious win equity.

win5Diane LeeML 8/5

Diane Lee (5) leads all horses in this race with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating and the field's best average speed figure at 57. She carries a 12% career win rate and goes postward as the 8/5 morning-line choice for trainer Milan Milosevic with Jorge Ruiz up — a rider-trainer combination worth noting. On paper, she's a class apart here, and her speed edge on the turf sprint makes her the clear top selection.

place6Pearl of PearlML 7/2

Pearl of Pearl (6) is the one to beat for the place spot, rating a strong 81.64 with a 33% career win rate — the best win percentage among any horses with established records in this field. Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo has her primed at 7/2 on the morning line, and Sonny Leon is an elite tactical rider on the Colonial turf course.

show2GranuaileML 8/1

Granuaile (2) is worth targeting at 8/1 as a show play and in trifecta construction, rating 72.17 with a 56 average speed figure. She sits third on the TrackWiz ratings list but carries a manageable 8/1 morning line, meaning she offers real upside in the exotics if either of the top two have any issues.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 4

2:05 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming route on the dirt where the favorite is as dominant on paper as you'll see all day — but at 4/5, the real game is finding the horses who can fill out the exotics at a profit.

win1White RocksML 4/5

White Rocks (1) tops the field with a 90.0 TrackWiz rating — the ceiling score — and goes as the 4/5 morning-line chalk for trainer Arnaud Delacour, who routinely competes at a high level. Samuel Marin gets the call and draws the rail, which sets up potential pace control on a one-mile dirt route. The 18% career win rate is a number you'd expect for a horse navigating allowance conditions, and nothing in this field grades close enough to pose a serious threat on ratings alone.

place4Sheilahs WarcloudML 9/2

Sheilahs Warcloud (4) rates at 76.8 with a 21% career win rate — the best win percentage in the field among horses with established records — and she gets Sheldon Russell, a trusted hand around Colonial. Justin J. Nixon's runner is priced at 9/2 on the morning line, which makes her a legitimate value play for the place slot in a race where the winner should be chalky.

show5DelrayML 7/2

Delray (5) matches Sheilahs Warcloud's 21% career win rate and posts a 70.6 TrackWiz rating, making her a solid third option in this race. Jamie Ness trains, Mychel J. Sanchez rides, and at 7/2 on the morning line she's reasonably priced for the show spot in what should be a manageable pace scenario at a mile.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

2:34 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open turf sprint with ten runners, but the top of the TrackWiz leaderboard is dominated by three horses who grade significantly above the rest — expect those three to handle the race between them.

win1Biz Biz BuzzML EVN

Biz Biz Buzz (1) draws the rail and earns even-money favorite status on the morning line for a reason — she tops this field with a 90.0 TrackWiz rating and leads all runners with an average speed figure of 58. Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo sends her out with Samuel Marin in the irons, and her 16% career win rate is respectable in claiming company on the turf. She's the horse to beat at any price.

place10Boss Is a PalML 4/1

Boss Is a Pal (10) rates a strong 84.54 with the second-best average speed figure in the field at 57 and a 19% career win rate that speaks to her consistency. Trainer Suzanne Stettinius sends her out with Jevian Toledo — one of the sharper jockeys in this region — and at 4/1 on the morning line, she's very much a live horse to fill out your exacta underneath.

show7Summer BeeML 6/1

Summer Bee (7) grades at 78.91 and matches Boss Is a Pal's 57 average speed figure, making her the third distinct tier in this race's ratings hierarchy. Michael Dini trains and Sonny Leon rides, a combination worth trusting, and at 6/1 on the morning line she offers some price value for show and trifecta slots.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

3:04 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A full field of twelve goes a mile on the turf in this claiming race, and while the morning-line favorite sits near mid-pack on TrackWiz ratings, our analysis identifies a 5/1 overlay with the top score in the field.

win7Flamenco StarML 5/1

Flamenco Star (7) tops all twelve horses with a 79.61 TrackWiz rating and carries a 14% career win rate in claiming company, which is respectable for a turf miler. Trainer Jorge Duarte, Jr. has Emmanuel Esquivel in the saddle, and Esquivel is comfortable at this distance on the Colonial turf. At 5/1 on the morning line, this is a genuine overlay situation — our top-rated horse is not the chalk, which is where the value lives.

place6Keen TalentML 8/1

Keen Talent (6) rates at 75.74 with a 10% career win rate and goes at 8/1 on the morning line with Jeiron Barbosa up for trainer Anthony Farrior. The price is the angle here — second on our ratings list but well overlooked in the morning line, making her a strong candidate to offer positive expected value in exacta construction underneath Flamenco Star.

show12Let FlyML 15/1

Let Fly (12) is a genuine price play at 15/1 on the morning line, rating 69.58 — third-best in the field — which makes her significantly undervalued by the oddsmakers. Trainer A. Ferris Allen III puts Mychel J. Sanchez up, and Sanchez has the experience to navigate a full turf field from a wide post. At that morning-line number, she's a must-include in trifecta and superfecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 7

3:36 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

A mile on the turf in allowance conditions draws a ten-horse field where the top of the TrackWiz ratings sheet separates three horses clearly from the rest — and the overlay sits squarely in the win spot.

win6Altamira SurML 7/2

Altamira Sur (6) leads the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and an eye-catching 37% career win rate — the highest among all runners in this race. Jorge Ruiz gets the mount for trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo, a barn that has been active and well-placed throughout this Colonial meet. At 7/2 on the morning line, she's actually a mild overlay given that win rate, and she looks like the right horse to anchor your tickets.

place7SiouxseML 3/1

Siouxse (7) rates at 75.2 with a 20% career win rate and gets the services of Mychel J. Sanchez for trainer H. Graham Motion — a combination that regularly finds the board. At 3/1 on the morning line she's fairly priced for the place slot, and her rating separation from the show pick gives us confidence she'll factor in the finish.

show5IntegrityML 5/2

Integrity (5) checks in at 70.99 on our ratings with a 33% career win rate, the second-best win percentage in the field. Trainer Brendan P. Walsh is a seasoned conditioner who doesn't run horses without a plan, and Jareth Loveberry takes the mount at 5/2 on the morning line. She's a logical show play and worth including in exacta combinations as a potential place horse.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

4:08 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

An eleven-horse maiden special weight mile on the turf features one horse with a TrackWiz rating significantly clear of the field — the story here is whether the odds-on favorite lives up to lofty expectations on debut or first out.

win5Little GeorgieML 2/1

Little Georgie (5) is the standout in this maiden field, posting an 88.54 TrackWiz rating that is more than 30 points above the third-highest-rated runner. Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. is one of the sharpest maiden trainers in the game at any level, and Nik Juarez is a solid tactical rider for a turf route at one mile. At 2/1 on the morning line, the market has her right — she's the clear top pick and the one this race is built around.

place10Muskoka KattML 7/2

Muskoka Katt (10) rates second in the field at 58.63 with a 54 average speed figure, and trainer Jordan Blair sends her out at 7/2 on the morning line with Daniel Centeno aboard. She profiles as the most likely runner to chase Little Georgie home, and in a maiden turf route where pace scenarios can be forgiving for closers, she's a logical place anchor.

show3Charlotte's CayML 4/1

Charlotte's Cay (3) grades at 55.0 with a 54 average speed figure for trainer Michael J. Trombetta, who consistently produces ready maiden runners. Mychel J. Sanchez takes the mount at 4/1 on the morning line, which is a fair price for a horse that fits cleanly in the third tier of this field's ratings — she's the natural show selection and a worthy trifecta component.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Bottom line: Diane Lee is the free-play standout, Shesa Mischieflady offers solid maiden claimer value in the opener, and the turf card closing things out has genuine exotic potential. Unlock the full TrackWiz card analysis — including pace maps, exotic structures, and ratings for all 8 races — with a subscription at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there, and enjoy the card.

← All Colonial Downs picks & predictions