Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — July 17, 2026
It's a hot Friday at Colonial Downs — 91°F under partly cloudy skies — and the track is serving up a full 8-race card that leans heavily on the grass. Four of today's eight races run over the turf course, which figures to be a key factor in how you build your tickets today.
The card runs the full spectrum from maiden claimers kicking things off in Race 1 to a pair of turf routes closing things out in Races 7 and 8. That mix of short sprints, turf dashes, and classic one-mile routes gives bettors plenty of angles to work across the afternoon.
Our TrackWiz analysis has identified standouts throughout the card — including a couple of heavy favorites worth trusting and at least one price horse with enough upside to anchor an exotic ticket. Let's break it down.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
A maiden claiming sprint on the dirt where TrackWiz ratings create a clear hierarchy — one horse grades out well above the field, but three others are bunched close enough to make the exacta tricky.
Shesa Mischieflady (2) is the standout in this field by a wide margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — more than 23 points clear of the next-best horse. She also shows an average speed figure of 55, topping the horses in this field who have recorded figures. Trainer Maria Bowersock puts her out at a 5/2 morning line that looks accurate, and with Samuel Marin up, she gets a capable hand for a maiden who should be rolling forward.
That Thing You Do (5) checks in with the second-highest rating in the field at 64.57 and an average speed figure of 54, showing she belongs in the conversation for the minor spots. At 6/1 on the morning line with Gerard Ochoa training and Mychel J. Sanchez in the irons, she offers some real value underneath if Shesa Mischieflady handles her business in front.
Sedenya (7) rates at 57.5 with a 54 average speed figure, slotting neatly into the show picture in a race where the back half of the field has question marks. Luis Fuenmayor gets the call for trainer Hugh I. McMahon, and at 5/2 on the morning line, she's a logical ticket to include in exacta and trifecta plays.
Race 2
Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt
Five furlongs on the dirt for maiden special weight runners, and the ratings are remarkably compressed at the top — three horses within two points of each other set up what could be a genuinely competitive result.
Adelita (1) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 57.5 and carries the highest average speed figure in the field at 56, giving her a small but meaningful edge over the competition. Trainer Michael B. Campbell sends her out with Jareth Loveberry aboard — a jockey who knows how to get a horse positioned from the inside post. At 5/2 on the morning line, the market agrees she's the one to beat.
Sassy Sof (3) grades at 56.67, just a fraction behind the top pick, and trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo knows this circuit well. She's a logical play underneath at 3/1 on the morning line, especially with Samuel Marin in the saddle bringing some experience to what could be a first-time starter situation.
Poll Position (2) rates at 55.83 with a 55 average speed figure, sitting right in the thick of this clustered trio at the top. Trainer Michael J. Trombetta is no stranger to placing maiden horses intelligently, and Mychel J. Sanchez gives her a sharp pilot — she's a strong show play in exotics at a reasonable 7/2 price.
Race 3
Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf
A claiming tilt on the turf at 5½ furlongs features two standout horses well clear of the rest — the question is whether the heavy morning-line favorite can hold off a well-meant closer with serious win equity.
Diane Lee (5) leads all horses in this race with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating and the field's best average speed figure at 57. She carries a 12% career win rate and goes postward as the 8/5 morning-line choice for trainer Milan Milosevic with Jorge Ruiz up — a rider-trainer combination worth noting. On paper, she's a class apart here, and her speed edge on the turf sprint makes her the clear top selection.
Pearl of Pearl (6) is the one to beat for the place spot, rating a strong 81.64 with a 33% career win rate — the best win percentage among any horses with established records in this field. Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo has her primed at 7/2 on the morning line, and Sonny Leon is an elite tactical rider on the Colonial turf course.
Granuaile (2) is worth targeting at 8/1 as a show play and in trifecta construction, rating 72.17 with a 56 average speed figure. She sits third on the TrackWiz ratings list but carries a manageable 8/1 morning line, meaning she offers real upside in the exotics if either of the top two have any issues.
Three races are fully unlocked for all TrackWiz readers today. Race 1 is a dirt maiden claimer going 5½ furlongs where Shesa Mischieflady (morning line 5/2, TrackWiz rating 87.81) tops our board and looks like the class of a fairly thin field. Race 2 sends maiden special weight runners out for a quick 5-furlong dirt sprint — these first-time and lightly raced types can be tough to pin down, but Adelita at 5/2 earns the nod on our projections. Then Race 3 shifts to the turf for a 5½-furlong claiming dash where Diane Lee jumps off the page at 8/5 on the morning line with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating — she's the strongest free-race selection of the afternoon and worth making a cornerstone of any early multi-race wager.
One theme connecting these free picks: the dirt sprints in Races 1 and 2 could see some pace pressure in the heat, so horses that can stalk rather than lead may have a late edge. On the turf in Race 3, Diane Lee's profile suggests she can handle whatever scenario unfolds.
Full Card Analysis
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Bottom line: Diane Lee is the free-play standout, Shesa Mischieflady offers solid maiden claimer value in the opener, and the turf card closing things out has genuine exotic potential. Unlock the full TrackWiz card analysis — including pace maps, exotic structures, and ratings for all 8 races — with a subscription at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there, and enjoy the card.