Daily Picks

Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — June 27, 2026

June 27, 202612 racesAll Churchill Downs picks

This card ran on June 27, 2026.

Best bets at Churchill Downs, June 27, 2026

Race 111PowerlineML 8/512:45 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 10 races are for members.

A free account opens race 2 too. Premium opens all 12, with AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet, which splits one bet across the horses you like.

Join Free See plans · from $9.99

Rain is in the air at Churchill Downs today, and that changes everything. With temps sitting at 78°F and steady rainfall working on the main track, we're likely looking at a wet, sealed, or officially muddy strip by post time — and that shifts the calculus on almost every dirt race on the card. Horses with prior off-track form move up significantly in our model, and early pace horses can get an extra edge when the surface plays cuppy or slow.

It's a loaded 12-race Saturday card featuring no fewer than six stakes races, a mix of dirt and turf action, and a turf schedule that'll be watching the weather closely — wet weather can force turf races onto the main track, so keep an eye on any surface changes before you lock in your tickets. Between the maiden openers and the stakes closers, there's plenty of angles to dig into today.

The day's marquee attraction is Race 11, where Sovereignty goes postward as the 6/5 morning-line favorite at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt — exactly the kind of surface that could be a factor with all this rain. It's a card worth playing deep, and TrackWiz has you covered from first post to last.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A massive 16-horse maiden field at six furlongs creates a chaotic pace scenario, but TrackWiz analysis finds a clear class separation at the top — the real question is who can track the speed and finish.

win11PowerlineML 8/5

Powerline draws the eye immediately with a TrackWiz rating of 59 — the highest in the field by a comfortable margin. The Steve Asmussen–Jose Ortiz combo is one of the most productive in the country at Churchill Downs, and this horse opens at 8/5 on the morning line for good reason. In a wide-open maiden field where pedigree and connections count for a lot, Powerline looks like the class of the field from gate to wire.

place5AntivenomML 5/1

Antivenom is trained by Mark Casse and piloted by Javier Castellano, a combination that knows how to spot horses in spots where they can win. The 53.33 TrackWiz rating puts him solidly in the top tier of this field, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's real value in singling him out for the exacta.

show3SalahudinML 6/1

Salahudin carries the Bob Baffert barn's best hope with Flavien Prat in the irons — a jockey who consistently elevates first-time starters. His 51.67 rating slots him just behind Antivenom, and at 6/1 he's attractively priced for trifecta construction. Baffert debuts runners with intent, and this horse deserves respect in the bottom half of your exotic tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 16 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:17 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Direct Strike dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this 1 1/16-mile maiden dirt route, but the gap between the top three and the rest of the field is enormous — this looks like a race within a race.

win5Direct StrikeML 7/5

Direct Strike carries a massive TrackWiz rating of 89.42 — nearly 15 points clear of the second-rated runner — and goes with Irad Ortiz Jr. for Brad Cox, who is among the best route trainers in the country at Churchill Downs. His average speed figure of 53 is unremarkable on paper, but TrackWiz's full evaluation puts him in a different class. At 7/5 on the morning line, the win pool may be thin, but this horse profiles as a single in early pick sequences.

place10Our ForefathersML 6/1

Our Forefathers is the most interesting piece in this race outside of the top selection, drawing Joel Rosario for trainer Peter Eurton with a 75.01 rating — a legitimate second-best effort in this field. He shows an average speed of 54 and morning line of 6/1, making him a solid place anchor in exactas. If Direct Strike hits traffic or gets into an unexpected pace duel, Eurton's horse looks the most capable of capitalizing.

show4PresideML 7/2

Preside pairs one of the meet's hottest trainers (Steven Asmussen) with Jose Ortiz, a jockey who has been sharp at Churchill this season. The 55.83 rating and matching average speed figure of 55 give him a legitimate chance to hit the board in a race where the top two choices are doing most of the heavy lifting. At 7/2, he's fair value for show tickets and trifecta support.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

We're giving all readers a free look at the first three races on the card, and the wet dirt theme runs right through them. Powerline kicks things off in Race 1 at 8/5 on the morning line — a six-furlong sprint where pace and post position matter extra on a wet track. In Race 2, Direct Strike comes in as the 7/5 chalk going a route of ground at 1 1/16 miles, and our rating of 89.42 makes this one of the stronger free-race plays on the card. Then Race 3 brings us Tagermeen at a more generous 5/2 in another maiden special weight, this one at 6 1/2 furlongs — our rating of 87.81 suggests there's legitimate value at that price.

One thing connecting all three free races: these are maiden fields, which means unknowns abound and the wet track adds another layer of unpredictability. That's part of why we lean toward horses whose connections (trainer and jockey) have shown comfort operating in off-track conditions. Dig into the individual race cards for the full reasoning behind each pick.

Free with an account

Open the next race free

A free account opens the first 2 races at every track, and every race at our Track of the Day. No credit card needed.

Create a free account Sign in

Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:49 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Tagermeen towers over this 6.5-furlong maiden field on the TrackWiz ratings, but a pair of Baffert runners and a live 6/1 shot from Kinnon LaRose's barn give the race more dimension than the morning line suggests.

win10TagermeenML 5/2

Tagermeen lands at the top of TrackWiz analysis with an 87.81 rating — the best in the field by a wide margin — and goes postward with Jose Ortiz in the irons for Steve Asmussen. An average speed of 55 backs up the number, and the 5/2 morning line reflects legitimate market confidence. Asmussen wins at a high rate with horses he sends to the gate as favorites, and this setup checks every box.

place7Market RunnerML 6/1

Market Runner is a sneaky piece here — trainer Kinnon LaRose isn't a household name nationally, but the 57.52 TrackWiz rating leads the second tier in this race. Junior Alvarado gets the mount at 6/1 on the morning line, and an average speed of 54 shows this horse has actually run. If the pace sets up for a closer, Market Runner could easily beat out the Bob Baffert entries for the place spot.

show9CampobassoML 3/1

Campobasso drew Flavien Prat for Bob Baffert, which is all the pedigree you need to include him in trifectas. The 56.67 rating and 56 average speed figure are legitimate, and at 3/1, the market respects him — Baffert's horses with Prat in the irons at Churchill are always dangerous. He's a natural hedge against Tagermeen in multi-leg wagers.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 4

2:21 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Final Story looks like a boat race at 4/5, but Blackout Time and Non Conforming offer real exacta and trifecta value at prices that make this Allowance Optional Claiming worth playing beyond the favorite.

win7Final StoryML 4/5

Final Story is the class of this field from top to bottom — a 90 TrackWiz rating, a 33% career win percentage, and the Irad Ortiz Jr./Brad Cox combo that simply doesn't make many mistakes in spots like this. Cox's Allowance runners at Churchill Downs win at a consistently high clip, and this horse projects as a pace-presser who can hold off closers at 1 1/16 miles. At 4/5, this isn't a value bet — it's a foundation horse for exotics.

place8Blackout TimeML 4/1

Blackout Time answers the question of who beats the favorite with a 75.65 TrackWiz rating and Jose Ortiz up for Kenneth McPeek. A 20% career win percentage in a field of this caliber is respectable, and at 4/1 on the morning line, the place price should be generous enough to make the exacta worthwhile. McPeek has been dialing in runners at this level all meet.

show2Non ConformingML 8/1

Non Conforming brings the best career win percentage in the field at 40% — a stat that stands out in an Allowance field and shouldn't be ignored. Luis Saez pilots for Brian Lynch, and the 61.26 rating puts this horse comfortably in the top third of the field. At 8/1, Non Conforming gives you real trifecta value and is capable of outrunning his morning line if the pace sets up favorably.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

2:55 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

This turf stakes at 1 1/8 miles is headlined by a tight trio at the top of the TrackWiz ratings, making it a prime race for exacta boxes and multi-race sequences rather than single-horse bets.

win9Vive VeuveML 5/2

Vive Veuve tops TrackWiz analysis with an 87.81 rating and gets Irad Ortiz Jr. under Joe Sharp — a trainer who conditions turf horses exceptionally well out of his base. A 29% career win rate in stakes company and an average speed of 54 show a consistent, reliable profile. At 5/2 on the morning line, the price reflects value without being a throw-out number.

place8Pin Up BettyML 7/2

Pin Up Betty is trained by Michael Maker, one of the premier turf conditioners in the game, and goes with Flavien Prat — a jockey who has arguably been the best grass rider in North America over the past several years. The 74.46 rating and 55 average speed give her strong credentials, and at 7/2, the place price on a Maker turf horse in stakes company is exactly what exacta players look for.

show1WarmingML 6/1

Warming draws post 1 with Johnny V aboard for H. Graham Motion — and Motion is consistently one of the top trainers to follow in grass routes at middle distances. The 70.81 TrackWiz rating and 33% career win percentage underscore real ability, and the 6/1 morning line offers trifecta value. Post 1 on the grass at Churchill has its quirks, but Motion and Velazquez know how to manage it.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

3:29 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Bring the Smoke looms as a massive standout in this wide seven-furlong Allowance Optional Claiming field, but Kalahari Dreams at 8/1 makes the exacta genuinely interesting for bettors willing to look past the chalk.

win8Bring the SmokeML 3/1

Bring the Smoke is the horse you build your ticket around today — an 87.08 TrackWiz rating that dwarfs the competition, a stunning 50% career win percentage, and Tyler Gaffalione aboard for trainer D. Whitworth Beckman. At 3/1 on the morning line, this isn't a short price — it's fair odds for a horse that projects to control or press the pace at seven furlongs and have plenty left in the tank. The win is the play.

place5Kalahari DreamsML 8/1

Kalahari Dreams is the value angle here, sporting a 68.65 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — with Luis Saez in the irons. Yes, the 13% career win rate looks light, but Saez regularly outperforms win percentage expectations by manufacturing finishes late, and Philip Bauer has this horse placing at a solid clip. At 8/1, the place payoff on Kalahari Dreams figures to be generous.

show10Dive BomberML 15/1

Dive Bomber is a legit trifecta component at 15/1 morning line — the 53.54 TrackWiz rating puts him in the middle of the field, and a 23% career win percentage shows he's been competitive at this level. Cristian Torres has ridden confidently all meet, and for Aaron Shorter's barn, this is a horse that earns checks. Sprinkle him in the bottom slot of your trifecta tickets for live upside.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 7

4:04 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

Splendora versus Shred the Gnar looks like a two-horse battle on paper, but Immersive's credentials make this a genuine three-way stakes clash that could turn on pace scenario more than raw ability.

win1SplendoraML 4/5

Splendora draws the rail for Bob Baffert with Flavien Prat and carries a monster 57% career win percentage — the kind of number that wins stakes races. The 87.0 TrackWiz rating leads the field, and Baffert's dirt stakes horses at Churchill Downs with Prat in the irons have been nearly automatic. At 4/5, this is a short price, but the profile is that of a dominant horse in a short field of five.

place3ImmersiveML 8/1

Immersive is the most fascinating piece in this race — a 62% career win percentage that actually exceeds Splendora's, paired with an 8/1 morning line that suggests the market might be underestimating her. Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. is a blue-chip combination in stakes company, and the 79.79 TrackWiz rating puts her well within striking range. If Splendora gets into any trouble from the inside post, Immersive could steal the race.

show5Shred the GnarML 6/5

Shred the Gnar's 66% career win percentage is the highest in the field, making the 6/5 morning line entirely understandable — but TrackWiz rates her third in this field at 77.71. Luis Saez pilots for Brian Lynch, and at these odds, she belongs in your trifecta tickets as the natural foil to Splendora. In a short field, all three top selections are live, and Shred the Gnar at these numbers is worth including.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 8

4:36 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Three horses cluster within a razor-thin band at the top of TrackWiz's turf stakes ratings — Prepped, Alpyland, and Immortalised are separated by less than four points, which makes pace and post position pivotal.

win2PreppedML 6/1

Prepped is our top selection despite going off at 6/1 — a significant overlay compared to the morning line favorite Alpyland. The 82.71 TrackWiz rating tops the field, Jose Ortiz gets the mount for trainer Cherie DeVaux, and Ortiz on turf has been a force all season. A 20% career win rate might look modest, but DeVaux regularly fires fresh horses that improve dramatically off their recent efforts.

place6AlpylandML 8/5

Alpyland is the morning line chalk at 8/5 for good reason — Mark Casse is a premier turf trainer, Javier Castellano is elite on the grass, and the 82.2 TrackWiz rating is essentially a dead heat with the top selection. A 50% career win percentage underscores consistent class, and if Prepped underperforms, Alpyland looks like the automatic place horse in this spot.

show1ImmortalisedML 4/1

Immortalised brings a 60% career win percentage that stands out even in this quality field, and the 4/1 morning line reflects real market respect. Brendan Walsh saddles his horse with John Velazquez — a Hall of Famer who excels in turf stakes at Churchill — and the 78.7 TrackWiz rating keeps him firmly in the conversation. At 4/1, trifecta inclusion here is a no-brainer.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 9

5:08 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Cornucopian is the even-money steamroller Bob Baffert sends out in this 6.5-furlong dirt stakes, but Dr. Venkman and Built give serious price players a legitimate reason to key against the favorite.

win2CornucopianML EVN

Cornucopian is as close to a lock as you'll find on the card — a 90 TrackWiz rating (the maximum in our system), a 57% career win percentage, and a blistering 57 average speed figure that tops every horse in the field. Flavien Prat rides for Baffert, and this horse goes to the gate as the even-money choice for very good reason. The speed figure advantage combined with that career win rate tells you this horse has been dominant at this level.

place6Dr. VenkmanML 7/2

Dr. Venkman is the most compelling price on the board in this race — a 81.62 TrackWiz rating, a 33% career win percentage, and a 57 average speed figure that matches the favorite. Joel Rosario gets the mount for Mark Glatt, and at 7/2 on the morning line, the exacta combining Cornucopian on top with Dr. Venkman underneath projects to pay well. This is a horse with genuine ability who just happens to be facing the best horse on today's card.

show7BuiltML 4/1

Built goes with Irad Ortiz Jr. for Wayne Catalano and brings a 41% career win percentage — strong credentials in open stakes company. The 65.1 TrackWiz rating trails the top two but is well clear of the rest, and a 57 average speed figure puts him in the same conversation on raw figures. At 4/1, Built is the natural trifecta completer behind Cornucopian and Dr. Venkman.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 10

5:43 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Lagynos is a clear TrackWiz standout in this turf stakes at 1 1/16 miles, but Dresden Row's 47% career win percentage makes the exacta a must-play at projected odds that should be generous.

win2LagynosML 5/2

Lagynos tops TrackWiz analysis with an 87.81 rating and goes with Jose Ortiz for Steve Asmussen — a combination that fires on all cylinders in stakes turf races. A 33% career win percentage and 55 average speed figure are consistent with a horse that runs well every time out, and at 5/2 on the morning line, there's fair value here. Asmussen's grass horses at Churchill Downs win at a clip that demands respect.

place6Dresden RowML 7/2

Dresden Row is the value angle that serious exacta players will target — a 74.78 TrackWiz rating backed by a 47% career win percentage that leads the entire field. Irad Ortiz Jr. is on board for trainer Anthony Sciametta, and at 7/2, the exacta combining Lagynos on top with Dresden Row underneath looks like the play of the race. That win percentage in stakes company is not a number you ignore.

show4Chasing the CrownML 9/2

Chasing the Crown draws Flavien Prat for Michael Maker — a turf trainer who knows exactly how to place a horse in spots like this. The 63.47 TrackWiz rating and 25% career win percentage are respectable, and at 9/2, the show price and trifecta value are both live. Maker's turf horses at Churchill routinely outperform their market positions.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 11

6:14 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

Sovereignty enters as one of the most dominant horses on today's entire card, but Magnitude's 50% career win percentage and Baeza's price suggest there's more here than a one-horse race if pace unfolds awkwardly.

win3SovereigntyML 6/5

Sovereignty is a borderline monster on TrackWiz analysis — an 89.71 rating, a staggering 60% career win percentage, and William Mott in the barn. Junior Alvarado gets the call, and Mott's top-notch dirt stakes horses at Churchill Downs are among the most reliable bets on the board. At 6/5 on the morning line, the price is short, but the credentials are extraordinary.

place5MagnitudeML 7/2

Magnitude goes with Jose Ortiz for Asmussen and carries a 50% career win percentage — the kind of number that says this horse belongs in stakes fields and knows how to finish. The 79.18 TrackWiz rating keeps him well within reach of the top selection, and at 7/2, the place payoff could be very strong if Sovereignty runs back to form. Ortiz doesn't ride horses he doesn't believe in.

show4BaezaML 6/1

Baeza is an intriguing trifecta piece at 6/1 — trained by William Mott, who also handles the race favorite, meaning Baeza gets blue-chip care and preparation. Flavien Prat takes the mount, and the 68.36 TrackWiz rating puts him in the middle of the competitive cluster. A 22% career win rate looks mild, but horses trained by Mott who land in the money more often than their win rate suggests are a longstanding pattern worth exploiting.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 12

6:44 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

A deep, wide-open 11-horse turf stakes closer on an even-mile trip — Tam Tam and Ground Support both bring top TrackWiz ratings but neither is a runaway, which is exactly what makes this race a late-sequence gem.

win9Tam TamML 5/1

Tam Tam rates as the top selection on TrackWiz analysis at 84.17, goes with Junior Alvarado for Philip Bauer, and opens at a workable 5/1 on the morning line. A 55 average speed figure is solid on this turf course, and a 28% career win percentage in what has clearly been competitive company shows this horse runs hard every time. Bauer is a competent conditioner who doesn't waste a spot like this on horses that aren't ready.

place8Ground SupportML 3/1

Ground Support is the most dangerous horse in this race outside of Tam Tam — a 66% career win percentage that shouts class, a 80.03 TrackWiz rating just off the top, and Adam Beschizza in the saddle for trainer Kelsey Danner. At 3/1 on the morning line, the market also respects him, and the exacta with Tam Tam on top should pay attractively. That career win rate in stakes turf company is the best number on the board.

show4Final AccordML 6/1

Final Accord gets Flavien Prat for Mark Casse — a grass trainer whose record speaks for itself — and carries a 71.24 TrackWiz rating that puts him squarely in the top third of this field. An average speed figure of 56 is the highest in the field, suggesting raw pace ability that could translate on this one-mile turf trip. At 6/1, Final Accord is the natural trifecta anchor for a race where the top two choices carry legitimate risk.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Bottom line: today at Churchill Downs is a card you want to be active on — six stakes races, a rain-affected track with real off-track angles, and a handful of morning-line prices that already look beatable. Sovereignty in Race 11 is the headline, but don't sleep on Prepped at 6/1 in Race 8 or Tam Tam at 5/1 in the finale. Free picks on Races 1–3 are live now. For the full card — pace scenarios, exotic tickets, and every stakes race broken down — subscribe to TrackWiz at /pricing and get in before first post.

← All Churchill Downs picks & predictions