Daily Picks

Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — June 26, 2026

Friday, June 26, 202611 racesChurchill Downs

Churchill Downs is playing host to an 11-race Friday card, and Mother Nature has shown up uninvited. Rain is falling at 75°F, which means the dirt is likely playing wet and cuppy — exactly the kind of surface that separates horses who love getting their hooves dirty from those who'd rather stay home. Track condition is the variable that ties this whole card together today, so keep it front and center as you build your tickets.

We've got a nice mix of race types on the menu — claiming races anchor the early and middle portions of the card, a pair of Maiden Special Weights give us some intrigue in the younger horse ranks, and a pair of allowance events on both dirt and turf round out the late card. The turf races in Races 5 and 9 are worth watching closely; wet weather can force late turf-to-dirt switches, and that reshuffles the deck completely. Stay tuned to track updates throughout the afternoon.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Our top-rated horse is flying under the radar at double-digit morning line odds, creating a juicy overlay situation in this 6.5-furlong dirt claimer to kick off the card.

win3Next TimeML 10/1

Next Time (3) is the TrackWiz top-rated horse in this field with an 87-point gap over the morning-line favorite, posting a rating of 76.88 that stands alone at the top. A 20% career win rate is the best among the legitimate contenders, and Ben Curtis is a steady hand who gets the most out of claiming-level runners. At 10/1 on the morning line, this is the kind of overlay that TrackWiz analysis is built to find — the numbers say he belongs much shorter.

place6Vino DominusML 7/2

Vino Dominus (6) draws the rail-skipping attention of Irad Ortiz Jr., one of the best in the business, and that jockey upgrade alone demands respect. His TrackWiz rating of 66.83 is second-best in the field, and trainer Joe Sharp has a knack for putting horses in spots where they can fire. At 7/2, he's fairly priced as the morning-line second choice, making him a safe place anchor.

show1McIlroyML 4/1

McIlroy (1) comes in as the public's 4/1 morning-line choice and backs it up with a 66.1 TrackWiz rating — he's not far off the top two. Gabriel Saez aboard keeps the connections strong, and the inside post should give him a clean trip in a race where front-runners could get involved early. Include him in your exotics as a hedge against a pace collapse.

Race 2

5:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Two horses have broken away from the pack in the ratings, setting up a potential battle between a sharp morning-line underlay and a mild overlay in this 7-furlong dirt claimer.

win8Q's Your MamaML 4/1

Q's Your Mama (8) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 — the highest mark in the field — and backs it up with a 28% career win rate that's among the very best here. The 55 average speed figure ties for best in the race, and trainer Norm W. Casse puts runners in position to succeed at Churchill. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's still solid value here for a horse that looks like the class of the field.

place3ProtomagicML 7/2

Protomagic (3) is right on Q's Your Mama's heels with a 84.43 TrackWiz rating and has Jose L. Ortiz in the irons — a combination that wins its share. The 7/2 morning line suggests the public is on him, but with a career win rate of 15% the risk is real, making place the smart spot in the wagering. Trainer Kinnon LaRose has her pointed here with purpose.

show7Nilo's RoseML 5/2

Nilo's Rose (7) owns the best career win rate in the entire field at 36%, which is a number that demands respect at any level. Irad Ortiz Jr. picks her up as a 5/2 morning-line second choice, and while the 67.24 TrackWiz rating puts her third in our rankings, that win percentage suggests she knows how to finish. She's a natural show bet and a key component in any horizontal exotic.

Race 3

5:44 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Brad Cox sends out two horses in this allowance optional claimer, and his second string is actually our top pick — a barn-mate matchup worth watching closely going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt.

win3Be the LightML 5/2

Be the Light (3) is the TrackWiz top choice with an 87.81 rating — the highest mark in this six-horse field by a comfortable margin. She sports a 33% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54, and the Brad Cox-Irad Ortiz Jr. combination is as powerful as it gets in this game. Cox winning with a horse at 5/2 who's also his second-stringer in the barn is a classic 'trainer knows something' angle.

place1Tap to OpenML 9/5

Tap to Open (1) is the morning-line favorite at 9/5, and the 72.63 TrackWiz rating reflects a consistent performer who Florent Geroux should steer into a good trip from the rail. A 25% career win rate supports the favoritism, and with two Cox horses in here, the stable's resources are clearly pointed at this race. If Be the Light gets caught wide or stumbles at the break, Tap to Open is right there.

show2Answered PrayersML 3/1

Answered Prayers (2) brings a 33% career win rate — matching Be the Light — and trainer William Mott is a Hall of Famer who doesn't miss spots. The 67.28 TrackWiz rating puts her third in this compact field, and with Jaime A. Torres up, she's a logical closer who could benefit if the Cox pair duel each other into the ground. A solid show anchor and show-parlay piece.

We're unlocking three races for everyone today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and they form a solid foundation for the afternoon. Next Time opens the card at an eye-catching 10/1 morning line in Race 1, a 6.5-furlong dirt claiming sprint where our TrackWiz rating of 76.88 makes this horse an undervalued early play if the pace scenario sets up right. In Race 2, Q's Your Mama checks in with a strong 85.62 rating at a reasonable 4/1 — a price that offers genuine value in a 7-furlong dirt claimer. Then Race 3 steps up in class with the Allowance Optional Claiming route at 1 1/16 miles, where Be the Light (87.81 TrackWiz rating) is our highest-rated free pick of the day at a fair 5/2.

The wet dirt is a connecting thread across all three of these free selections. Horses that have shown an ability to handle off tracks, or who carry strong early speed to avoid trouble in the slop, get a meaningful edge today. Look for those angles in the full race breakdowns below.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:15 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This wide-open maiden claimer over 6 furlongs features three horses clustered near the top of the TrackWiz ratings, making the outcome genuinely hard to call — but a mild overlay catches our eye.

win5Chief MorterML 6/1

Chief Morter (5) edges out the field with the top TrackWiz rating of 81.36 — just a razor's edge over Jack Charles — and comes in at a playable 6/1 on the morning line. Trainer Larry Rivelli has a history of conditioning maiden claimers for a first-out effort, and Gerardo Corrales gives him a capable pilot. In a race where everyone is searching for a first win, that ratings edge combined with fair odds makes Chief Morter our top selection.

place1Jack CharlesML 4/1

Jack Charles (1) is just a whisker behind at 81.12 and draws in with the high-profile Jose L. Ortiz-Joe Sharp combo — a pairing that routinely fires in spots like this. The 4/1 morning line makes him the public's top choice, and frankly the market isn't wrong; Sharp conditions maidens well. He's a strong exacta partner and a confident place bet.

show11MunicipalML 5/2

Municipal (11) rates third in the field at 77.01 and has Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons for Saffie Joseph Jr. — two names that regularly appear in the winner's circle. The 5/2 morning line will likely compress further with public money, but he's a natural show bet and a useful third leg in any trifecta or superfecta. Don't overlook the talent in this barn when it comes to first-time starters.

Race 5

6:47 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A full field of maiden special weight runners hit the Churchill turf for 5 furlongs — first-time starters and lightly raced horses dominate, making this a speed-figure and trainer-pattern puzzle.

win13RetrospectiveML 4/1

Retrospective (13) tops our TrackWiz ratings in this field at 76.47 and comes in at a very workable 4/1 morning line. Adam Beschizza teams up with trainer Gregory D. Foley, and Retrospective shows a 54 average speed figure that's competitive on this surface. In first-time turf situations, the horses that show some underlying form in their workouts tend to stand out, and our model likes what it sees here.

place11R P ByrneML 5/1

R P Byrne (11) is trained by Wesley A. Ward, which is essentially a cheat code in short-turf maiden sprints — Ward's record at this specialty distance is exceptional. The 63.64 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the field, and the 56 average speed figure is the best among all horses who have a recorded figure. Joseph D. Ramos gets the call and Ward runners at Churchill in this spot are not to be taken lightly.

show7Spin a TuneML 7/2

Spin a Tune (7) posts the single highest average speed figure in the entire race at 58 — a number that really pops in what figures to be a pace-dependent short turf sprint. Eoin G. Harty sends her out with Jose L. Ortiz aboard, and the 7/2 morning line reflects public confidence. She's our show selection and a horse to include in all your multi-race verticals.

Race 6

7:19 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite looks beatable here — our top-rated horse comes in at more than double the odds of the chalk, setting up a classic overlay spot in this 6.5-furlong dirt claimer.

win8Show TimeML 7/2

Show Time (8) is the clear TrackWiz top choice with an 86.35 rating, well clear of the field, and at 7/2 on the morning line he's a genuine overlay against the 7/5 favorite. His 26% career win rate and a 56 average speed figure — tied for best in the race — paint the picture of a horse who is fast and wins his share. Joe Sharp conditions him and Jose L. Ortiz gets the mount, which is one of the most dangerous trainer-jockey combos in the country.

place1ThoughtthatcountsML 7/5

Thoughtthatcounts (1) will be heavily backed at 7/5, and a 77.14 TrackWiz rating with a 22% career win rate shows why. Tyler Gaffalione is an excellent rider who knows Churchill Downs like his living room, and David Jacobson ships in with purpose. Even if she gets run down by Show Time, she figures to be right there at the wire, making her a strong place anchor.

show2Nasty HabitML 8/1

Nasty Habit (2) comes in at 8/1 with a 64.37 TrackWiz rating and the best average speed figure in the race at 56 — tied with our top pick. Trainer Peter Miller is a volume winner who keeps horses fit and ready, and Abel Cedillo is a capable pilot on the Churchill circuit. At those odds, she's the kind of show bet that can pay a little something extra and is worth including in your trifecta keys.

Race 7

7:53 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A sprawling 12-horse claiming field at 6.5 furlongs presents a muddled pace picture, but one horse sits meaningfully clear in the ratings while going off at morning-line value.

win7MamarshaML 8/1

Mamarsha (7) tops the TrackWiz ratings in this deep field at 79.79 — nearly 10 points clear of the next-best — and comes in at 8/1 on the morning line, which is excellent value for the top-rated runner. Tyler Gaffalione is one of the most in-demand jockeys in the country right now, and trainer Norm W. Casse puts horses in spots to succeed. In a field this large with pace likely to get messy early, a horse with this rating edge and a quality pilot is exactly what you want.

place12No Time LeftML 5/2

No Time Left (12) draws the services of Irad Ortiz Jr. at 5/2 on the morning line and shows a 70.29 TrackWiz rating that puts her second in this field. A 55 average speed figure is competitive, and trainer Gregory D. Foley has had a productive week. She's a natural place horse in a race where pace could soften things up for a closer.

show10Sassy FoxML 9/2

Sassy Fox (10) posts a 68.41 TrackWiz rating with a 55 average speed figure and a 20% career win rate, all of which say she belongs near the top of this field. Edgar Morales gives her a live outside post and trainer Randy L. Morse keeps her sharp. At 9/2, the return on a show ticket is modest, but she's a critical piece in trifecta and superfecta constructions.

Race 8

8:25 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Steven Asmussen drops a highly regarded maiden into this 1 1/16-mile dirt MSW, and our model agrees with the market — this is a two-horse race with a clear standout.

win5Fast GunML 5/2

Fast Gun (5) is our top-rated horse at 87.81, matching the highest TrackWiz mark on the card today, and at 5/2 he's a reasonable play against a field of fellow maidens. Jose L. Ortiz takes the mount for the powerful Steven Asmussen barn — a combination that routinely converts at a high clip in maiden special weight company. He's a horse our model has significant confidence in, and while MSW races always carry uncertainty with lightly-raced horses, the rating here is hard to argue with.

place2WedeliaML 3/1

Wedelia (2) gets Brad Cox saddling her with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard — two of the best in the sport — and the 56.67 TrackWiz rating puts her second in the field. The 3/1 morning line makes her the public's second choice, and Cox has a sharp eye for placing maidens in races they can win. If Fast Gun stumbles out of the gate or gets into trouble early, Wedelia is ready to capitalize.

show8Bodacious BayML 4/1

Bodacious Bay (8) comes in at 4/1 on the morning line and has a 55 average speed figure — tied for best in the field alongside Curlin's Charm. Trainer Rodolphe Brisset is a name that keeps improving year over year at Churchill, and Cristian A. Torres has the horse positioned to run a forward race. She's a legitimate show contender and a useful fourth in any superfecta ticket.

Race 9

8:56 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

Brad Cox fires in a top-rated closer for this mile turf allowance, and if the pace develops honestly on the grass, the favorite could wire the field — but there's solid supporting value underneath.

win6ConceitML 3/1

Conceit (6) is the TrackWiz top choice at 87.08 and draws in at a very fair 3/1 morning line for a Brad Cox-Irad Ortiz Jr. entry. A 25% career win rate is solid for an allowance-level grass runner, and the Cox barn rarely misses at Churchill when they have this kind of firepower assembled. On a mile turf, a horse with these credentials going off at morning-line odds of 3/1 is a play we're happy to make.

place3MechayaML 6/1

Mechaya (3) shows a 63.66 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and Ben Curtis has him rolling at 6/1 on the morning line. A 16% career win rate at the allowance level suggests he runs competitively without always closing the deal, which makes place the natural spot. Trainer James P. DiVito sends him out fit, and on a turf course that can favor closers, he's poised for a big effort.

show7LeinaniML 9/2

Leinani (7) represents the Chad C. Brown barn at 9/2 — and Brown's turf record speaks for itself. The 57.92 TrackWiz rating puts her third in the field, and a 33% career win rate shows she's been productive. Tyler Gaffalione can work magic on the Churchill turf course, and she's the kind of mare who can sit just off the pace and pounce when the leaders come back to her.

Race 10

9:28 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

Three horses are genuinely in play in this 1 1/8-mile dirt allowance optional claimer, with our top two separated by less than two points in the ratings — expect a real battle in the stretch.

win3InterceptorML 5/2

Interceptor (3) leads the TrackWiz ratings at 83.88 and gets the call of Luis Saez, who is riding at an elite level right now. A 25% career win rate at the allowance level is a quality number, and trainer Michael J. Maker is one of the most accomplished conditioners in the country when it comes to routing on the dirt. At 5/2, there's no significant overlay here, but you're backing a top-rated horse with a hall-of-fame-caliber trainer — that's a play.

place4StowawayML 7/2

Stowaway (4) is just barely behind at 81.93 with Jose L. Ortiz taking the mount for D. Whitworth Beckman. The 7/2 morning line makes him a narrow second choice, and a horse that gets Ortiz aboard at a route distance at Churchill is never to be dismissed. If Interceptor fires and wins, Stowaway has the talent to be right there for place money.

show5AristotleML 10/1

Aristotle (5) is the sneaky third choice in our ratings at 76.88 — a full 5 points clear of the fourth-best horse in the field. Mark E. Casse is a sharp trainer with a 27% career win rate backing his runner, and at 10/1 on the morning line Aristotle represents the best odds-to-rating ratio in this field. He's the show bet that could pay real money and a strong underneath piece in your trifecta.

Race 11

9:59 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

This 12-horse starter allowance at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt has a clear ratings standout, but the secondary tier is tightly bunched — making the underneath spots the real handicapping puzzle on the nightcap.

win3Funny UncleML 7/2

Funny Uncle (3) is the TrackWiz top-rated horse in this field at 86.35, the highest mark by a considerable margin, and the Irad Ortiz Jr.-Joe Sharp combination is the single most dangerous pairing you can throw at a field like this. A 55 average speed figure and a morning line of 7/2 suggests the market hasn't fully caught up to what our model sees. Sharp has been clicking at Churchill and Ortiz doesn't take bad mounts — trust this one.

place9Spirit of a WalkonML 8/1

Spirit of a Walkon (9) comes in as our second-rated horse at 72.91 with Corey J. Lanerie up for Dale Romans — a Churchill-centric barn that knows how to win at home. A 22% career win rate is a healthy number in starter allowance company, and at 8/1 on the morning line there's genuine overlay value here for a horse sitting comfortably second in the ratings. He's a confident place selection and a value play in exactas.

show6Fear of UnionML 3/1

Fear of Union (6) brings a 23% career win rate and a 72.26 TrackWiz rating — third-best in a field of twelve — to this complex nightcap. Tyler Gaffalione handles her for trainer Jade Cunningham, and at 3/1 she's the public's second choice for good reason. She's a legitimate contender who figures to sit within striking distance of the pace and have every chance in the stretch, making her a natural show leg in all your multi-horse tickets.

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Bottom line for today at Churchill Downs: the rain is the story, and horses with proven off-track form are the edge. Our top free plays — Next Time, Q's Your Mama, and Be the Light — give everyone a strong starting point, but the full 11-race card is where the real value is buried, especially in the turf alternatives and the late-card allowance events. Subscribers have everything they need. Not yet a subscriber? Head to our pricing page and get in on the action before the first race goes off. Good luck out there — keep it smart, keep it fun.

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