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Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — June 25, 2026

June 25, 20268 racesAll Churchill Downs picks

This card ran on June 25, 2026.

Best bets at Churchill Downs, June 25, 2026

Race 19SpottedML 9/25:00 PM EDT

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Churchill Downs has a full 8-race card on tap for Thursday, June 25, and the conditions are about as good as it gets in late June — partly cloudy skies and a pleasant 85°F to keep things moving. The dirt track should be in solid shape, and with three turf races scattered across the afternoon, grass players will have plenty to dig into.

The card mixes maiden claimers and allowance company all the way up to a pair of Allowance Optional Claiming routes, so there's something for every type of bettor. Whether you're looking to fade the chalk, find a live longshot in the early going, or build a multi-race sequence deeper on the card, today's menu delivers options. Let's break down what you need to know.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A deep maiden claiming sprint with three horses separating themselves from the pack on TrackWiz ratings — but at varying morning-line prices that create real betting interest.

win9SpottedML 9/2

Spotted (9) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 84.9 and draws the rail-friendly 9-post in a 12-horse field, giving Ben Curtis plenty of options in the early going. Her avg speed figure of 53 is right in the mix for this maiden claiming level, and her 9/2 morning line offers solid overlay potential if she fires her best effort. In a race full of first-timers and maidens with spotty form, a horse with this rating edge deserves top billing.

place4Imminent RiskML 3/1

Imminent Risk (4) is the morning-line favorite at 3/1 for good reason — a TrackWiz rating of 83.44 and a field-best avg speed figure of 55 make her a serious threat to hit the board. Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons is never a throwaway angle, and the Joe Sharp barn knows how to spot maidens in the right spots. Even if Spotted edges her at the wire, getting Imminent Risk underneath at likely short odds still makes exotics worth building around her.

show10Nola LouiseML 6/1

Nola Louise (10) rates third in the field at 77.68 and brings an avg speed of 54 for Troy Newton, a trainer who can get maidens ready fresh. The 6/1 morning line suggests the market isn't fully on board yet, which is exactly the kind of show-ticket value you want when the top two are short-priced. She's the logical third wheel in any trifecta you construct here.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

5:29 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Awesome Ruta looks like a wire-to-wire standout in this starter allowance route, but the 8/5 morning line means bettors will need to find value underneath.

win2Awesome RutaML 8/5

Awesome Ruta (2) is the class of this field — a TrackWiz rating of 89.12, a 30% career win rate, and an avg speed of 54 heading into a starter allowance at 1 1/16 miles. Joe Ortiz up for the Sharp barn is a top-shelf combination at Churchill, and at the mile-plus distance, this horse's style should suit the pace scenario perfectly. She's the heavy favorite for good reason, and we're comfortable standing behind her despite the short price.

place3Expect the BestML 10/1

Expect the Best (3) is a sneaky interesting play underneath at 10/1 — a 33% career win rate is the best in the field and his TrackWiz rating of 73.44 puts him clearly in the second tier. Ron Moquett consistently gets runners to hit the board in allowance company, and Ben Curtis has the experience to rate him off what figures to be Awesome Ruta's honest pace. At double-digit morning-line odds, he's a genuine value in the exacta.

show7Glen AiryML 5/1

Glen Airy (7) brings a TrackWiz rating of 69.4 and pairs Joel Rosario with the Michael Maker barn — a connection that quietly produces at Churchill. His 15% career win rate is modest, but Maker horses in routes often improve with each start and find the board more than they win. At 5/1, he's worth including in trifectas as the race's most logical third-place finisher.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

TrackWiz is serving up free full analysis on the first three races, and there's a nice through-line worth noting. Races 1 and 2 are both dirt sprints and routes where pace scenario figures to be a major factor — horses that can get a clean trip early without getting buried in traffic should have a leg up. Keep an eye on how the first race or two play out; if closers are grinding from off the pace and hitting the board, that's a tempo tell for the rest of the afternoon's dirt runners.

Race 3 flips to the turf at a mile, and that's where our top-rated free pick of the morning comes in. Honey Dutch opens as the morning-line favorite at 6/5, and a TrackWiz rating of 89.71 backs that price up — she grades out as the class of her field right now. Meanwhile, Spotted (Race 1, 9/2 ML) and Awesome Ruta (Race 2, 8/5 ML) both carry strong ratings for their conditions and are worth a close look before the windows close.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

5:58 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

Honey Dutch looks like a short-priced standout on the turf, but a small, competitive field means the place and show spots are genuinely up for grabs.

win5Honey DutchML 6/5

Honey Dutch (5) headlines this allowance turf mile with the race's top TrackWiz rating at 89.71 and an avg speed of 55 — both field-best marks. Tyler Gaffalione and trainer D. Whitworth Beckman have assembled a sharp combination, and the 6/5 morning line reflects genuine confidence. Yes, she's only won 10% of her career starts, but the jump in rating over her competitors suggests she's simply outclassing this field.

place7Maui StrongML 7/2

Maui Strong (7) is our place play at 7/2, backing Luis Saez and the Dale Romans barn in a setup that suits a versatile router. His TrackWiz rating of 56.76 and avg speed of 55 match Honey Dutch's figure, making him the most logical challenger if the favorite hits any trouble in traffic. The 7/2 price gives you real value if he fires second-best on the turf.

show6WhatchadoinML 6/1

Whatchadoin (6) is an intriguing show option at 6/1 — Irad Ortiz Jr. doesn't take mounts without a reason, and Kelsey Danner's runner carries a TrackWiz rating of 51.67. The missing avg speed figure from our data suggests limited starts, which can cut both ways on turf — but with a rider of Ortiz's caliber, there's a ceiling worth respecting in exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

6:27 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Warrior Richard sets up as the class standout in this one-mile claiming route, but J.P. Race and Real Macho make this a genuine three-way battle at the top.

win4Warrior RichardML 5/2

Warrior Richard (4) leads our TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and shows an avg speed of 54 at a 5/2 morning line — the right price for a horse this clear of the field on our model. Cristian Torres navigates for Robertino Diodoro, a barn with sharp claiming instincts, and a 17% career win rate in this class range is exactly what you want from a horse stepping into the spotlight. The one-mile dirt distance is a clean test, and we expect him to be running late.

place3Real MachoML 7/2

Real Macho (3) is our place pick with a TrackWiz rating of 72.06 and the hot hand of Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons for Joe Sharp. His 20% career win rate and avg speed of 53 suggest he's capable of pressing the pace or stalking before a late kick — a useful profile when Warrior Richard is the one to beat. At 7/2, the exacta combining him underneath the top selection offers fair value.

show7Hurry HurryML 8/1

Hurry Hurry (7) slots in as our show pick at 8/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 69.73 — third best in the field — and Tyler Gaffalione picking up the mount for David Jacobson. His 27% career win rate is actually the second-highest in this field, and his avg speed of 52 suggests he's been a closer type who can sneak into third. Double-digit or near-double-digit odds on a horse with that win percentage is worth a trifecta ticket.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

6:56 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Richeztoo dominates the TrackWiz ratings in a sprawling 11-horse claiming field, but it's the value spots underneath — particularly a pair of Asmussen runners — that make this race exotic-friendly.

win1RicheztooML 5/2

Richeztoo (1) tops the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and a 55 avg speed figure — both best in the race by a comfortable margin. Irad Ortiz Jr. takes the mount for the Joe Sharp barn, a combination that has been lethal at Churchill, and a 9% career win rate is modest but common at this class level. From the rail post in a one-mile dirt route, Ortiz can dictate his own terms or stalk the pace — either way, this horse is the clear top selection.

place8Vino DominusML 4/1

Vino Dominus (8) pairs Jose Ortiz with the Joe Sharp barn — same trainer, different jockey, which means Sharp is playing to win and place simultaneously. His TrackWiz rating of 68.14 and avg speed of 53 make him a legitimate second-best in the race, and the 4/1 morning line offers reasonable exacta value beneath Richeztoo. A 12% career win rate means he hits the board more than he tops it, making place the natural landing spot.

show11Carcar ExpressML 10/1

Carcar Express (11) brings a 25% career win rate — the best in the field — to a 10/1 morning line, which screams value in the show spot. His TrackWiz rating of 64.96 and avg speed of 52 suggest he runs a touch below the top two, but Erik Asmussen aboard for the Steve Asmussen barn is a family affair and a barn worth following when they wheel a runner back. At those odds, he's an easy trifecta inclusion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 6

7:25 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden special weight on the turf mile where first-time starters and lightly raced horses make projecting the outcome genuinely difficult — exactly the type of race where TrackWiz ratings separate the contenders.

win7FuzzbusterML 9/2

Fuzzbuster (7) leads all comers with an 84.9 TrackWiz rating and an avg speed of 55, pairing Mario Gutierrez with trainer Victoria Oliver in what looks like a primed debut or lightly raced effort on Churchill's turf. The 9/2 morning line suggests the market is onto this one without going overboard, and in a field of maiden turf horses, that rating separation is worth trusting. This is the kind of race where the top number wins more often than the chalk.

place10Banksy'sML 5/1

Banksy's (10) is a strong underneath play at 5/1 — an 80.56 TrackWiz rating makes him the second-best horse in the race by our model, and Jose Ortiz gives David Fawkes an elite rider to navigate the turf. His avg speed of 54 is right in the mix with the winner's figure, and if Fuzzbuster gets caught in traffic or needs one more start to fire, Banksy's is the logical alternative to land on the board.

show6Melody ManML 10/1

Melody Man (6) is a live longshot at 10/1 — a TrackWiz rating of 70.6 and a field-best avg speed of 57 tell an interesting story. Joel Rosario taking the mount for J. Kent Sweezey is meaningful in a maiden turf race, and that avg speed mark suggests sharp raw numbers even if the rating lags slightly. At double-digit morning-line odds, he's a must-use in trifectas and superfectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 7

7:54 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Munnings Challenge and Doublecents look like the class pair in this allowance optional claimer, setting up a pace duel that could leave the door open for a closer to sneak into the exotics.

win7Munnings ChallengeML 7/2

Munnings Challenge (7) sits atop our TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and brings an avg speed of 56 — tied for best in the race — with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons for the Brad Cox barn. Cox and Ortiz at Churchill is about as strong a trainer-jockey combination as you'll find anywhere, and a 33% career win rate from the 7-post in a 6.5-furlong dirt sprint profiles beautifully. At 7/2, this is a confident top selection.

place6DoublecentsML 5/1

Doublecents (6) makes sense as our place pick at 5/1 — a TrackWiz rating of 74.67, an avg speed of 56 matching the top horse, and a 33% career win rate for trainer Brett Creighton. Jaime Torres navigates from post 6, a clean outside position in a sprint, and if this horse gets to the front or pressures Munnings Challenge early, he's got the figures to hang on for second. The exacta combining these two is where we'd put our primary money.

show9BlacksmithML 9/2

Blacksmith (9) gives Bob Baffert one of his characteristically patient sprint setups, and Florent Geroux knows how to rate a horse in a sprint that might get honest early. His TrackWiz rating of 63.1 and avg speed of 54 are solid third-tier marks in this field, and a 9/2 morning line in an optional claimer means the market respects him. If the top two hook up early and tire, Blacksmith sweeps up the pieces.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

8:23 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A massive 15-horse allowance optional claiming field on the turf mile-and-an-eighth creates exotic chaos, but Somethinabouther looks like the standout when the numbers are stripped away.

win4SomethinaboutherML 5/2

Somethinabouther (4) leads our TrackWiz model at 87.81 and posts an avg speed of 55 in a sprawling field that gets thin in quality quickly once you get past the top few. Tyler Gaffalione picks up the mount for Brendan Walsh — a turf-specialist trainer who knows exactly how to place a mare for success at Churchill. A 13% career win rate is modest, but Walsh runners frequently hit the board even when they don't top it, and Gaffalione's turf instincts in a big field are a genuine advantage.

place11HereforagoodtimeML 10/1

Hereforagoodtime (11) is our value place play at 10/1 — a TrackWiz rating of 61.88 and an avg speed of 58, one of the best raw speed figures in the entire field. Ben Curtis for the Brendan Walsh barn means Walsh is doubling up in this race with two credible contenders, which tells you something about his confidence in both. If Somethinabouther leads the Walsh charge home, Hereforagoodtime is the logical stable companion to follow her in.

show7EvershedML 6/1

Evershed (7) rounds out our analysis at 6/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 54.79 and a 33% career win rate — the latter being an eye-catching number for a horse not at the top of the board. Arnaud Delacour is a sharp turf trainer who targets spots deliberately, and Luan Machado's experience on the Churchill grass is underrated. In a wide-open field at a mile and an eighth, a horse with that win percentage and a patient barn is worth including in your trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 15 runners

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Today at Churchill Downs, Honey Dutch is the name to know for free-card bettors, and the dirt-to-turf rotation across the afternoon sets up some compelling multi-race angles. The three free race analyses are live now — and for everything else on this 8-race card, including pace maps, exotic strategies, and the full breakdown on Somethinabouther and Munnings Challenge, TrackWiz Premium subscribers have it all waiting. Good luck out there, and may the trips be clean.

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