Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — June 25, 2026
Churchill Downs has a full 8-race card on tap for Thursday, June 25, and the conditions are about as good as it gets in late June — partly cloudy skies and a pleasant 85°F to keep things moving. The dirt track should be in solid shape, and with three turf races scattered across the afternoon, grass players will have plenty to dig into.
The card mixes maiden claimers and allowance company all the way up to a pair of Allowance Optional Claiming routes, so there's something for every type of bettor. Whether you're looking to fade the chalk, find a live longshot in the early going, or build a multi-race sequence deeper on the card, today's menu delivers options. Let's break down what you need to know.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A deep maiden claiming sprint with three horses separating themselves from the pack on TrackWiz ratings — but at varying morning-line prices that create real betting interest.
Spotted (9) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 84.9 and draws the rail-friendly 9-post in a 12-horse field, giving Ben Curtis plenty of options in the early going. Her avg speed figure of 53 is right in the mix for this maiden claiming level, and her 9/2 morning line offers solid overlay potential if she fires her best effort. In a race full of first-timers and maidens with spotty form, a horse with this rating edge deserves top billing.
Imminent Risk (4) is the morning-line favorite at 3/1 for good reason — a TrackWiz rating of 83.44 and a field-best avg speed figure of 55 make her a serious threat to hit the board. Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons is never a throwaway angle, and the Joe Sharp barn knows how to spot maidens in the right spots. Even if Spotted edges her at the wire, getting Imminent Risk underneath at likely short odds still makes exotics worth building around her.
Nola Louise (10) rates third in the field at 77.68 and brings an avg speed of 54 for Troy Newton, a trainer who can get maidens ready fresh. The 6/1 morning line suggests the market isn't fully on board yet, which is exactly the kind of show-ticket value you want when the top two are short-priced. She's the logical third wheel in any trifecta you construct here.
Race 2
Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt
Awesome Ruta looks like a wire-to-wire standout in this starter allowance route, but the 8/5 morning line means bettors will need to find value underneath.
Awesome Ruta (2) is the class of this field — a TrackWiz rating of 89.12, a 30% career win rate, and an avg speed of 54 heading into a starter allowance at 1 1/16 miles. Joe Ortiz up for the Sharp barn is a top-shelf combination at Churchill, and at the mile-plus distance, this horse's style should suit the pace scenario perfectly. She's the heavy favorite for good reason, and we're comfortable standing behind her despite the short price.
Expect the Best (3) is a sneaky interesting play underneath at 10/1 — a 33% career win rate is the best in the field and his TrackWiz rating of 73.44 puts him clearly in the second tier. Ron Moquett consistently gets runners to hit the board in allowance company, and Ben Curtis has the experience to rate him off what figures to be Awesome Ruta's honest pace. At double-digit morning-line odds, he's a genuine value in the exacta.
Glen Airy (7) brings a TrackWiz rating of 69.4 and pairs Joel Rosario with the Michael Maker barn — a connection that quietly produces at Churchill. His 15% career win rate is modest, but Maker horses in routes often improve with each start and find the board more than they win. At 5/1, he's worth including in trifectas as the race's most logical third-place finisher.
Race 3
Allowance · 1 mi · Turf
Honey Dutch looks like a short-priced standout on the turf, but a small, competitive field means the place and show spots are genuinely up for grabs.
Honey Dutch (5) headlines this allowance turf mile with the race's top TrackWiz rating at 89.71 and an avg speed of 55 — both field-best marks. Tyler Gaffalione and trainer D. Whitworth Beckman have assembled a sharp combination, and the 6/5 morning line reflects genuine confidence. Yes, she's only won 10% of her career starts, but the jump in rating over her competitors suggests she's simply outclassing this field.
Maui Strong (7) is our place play at 7/2, backing Luis Saez and the Dale Romans barn in a setup that suits a versatile router. His TrackWiz rating of 56.76 and avg speed of 55 match Honey Dutch's figure, making him the most logical challenger if the favorite hits any trouble in traffic. The 7/2 price gives you real value if he fires second-best on the turf.
Whatchadoin (6) is an intriguing show option at 6/1 — Irad Ortiz Jr. doesn't take mounts without a reason, and Kelsey Danner's runner carries a TrackWiz rating of 51.67. The missing avg speed figure from our data suggests limited starts, which can cut both ways on turf — but with a rider of Ortiz's caliber, there's a ceiling worth respecting in exotics.
TrackWiz is serving up free full analysis on the first three races, and there's a nice through-line worth noting. Races 1 and 2 are both dirt sprints and routes where pace scenario figures to be a major factor — horses that can get a clean trip early without getting buried in traffic should have a leg up. Keep an eye on how the first race or two play out; if closers are grinding from off the pace and hitting the board, that's a tempo tell for the rest of the afternoon's dirt runners.
Race 3 flips to the turf at a mile, and that's where our top-rated free pick of the morning comes in. Honey Dutch opens as the morning-line favorite at 6/5, and a TrackWiz rating of 89.71 backs that price up — she grades out as the class of her field right now. Meanwhile, Spotted (Race 1, 9/2 ML) and Awesome Ruta (Race 2, 8/5 ML) both carry strong ratings for their conditions and are worth a close look before the windows close.
Full Card Analysis
Premium Content
Get the Full Card Analysis
Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.
Today at Churchill Downs, Honey Dutch is the name to know for free-card bettors, and the dirt-to-turf rotation across the afternoon sets up some compelling multi-race angles. The three free race analyses are live now — and for everything else on this 8-race card, including pace maps, exotic strategies, and the full breakdown on Somethinabouther and Munnings Challenge, TrackWiz Premium subscribers have it all waiting. Good luck out there, and may the trips be clean.