Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — June 24, 2026

Don't Be Salty (6) has the most impressive career win rate in this field at 33%, and that winning pedigree matters in starter allowance company. Irad Ortiz, Jr. picks up the mount for Kinnon LaRose, and with an 81.53 TrackWiz rating she's only a nose behind our top pick. The 4/1 morning line offers legitimate value if she can track the pace and pounce late.

Next Up (5) is the morning-line favorite at 6/5, but our model actually ranks her third behind Miss Ellary and Don't Be Salty — a divergence worth noting. That said, an 18% career win rate and a 77.44 TrackWiz rating are both respectable, and Luan Machado is a capable pilot. We'd rather use her for show or as a saver in exactas than invest heavily at odds that may not offer value.

From Scratch (7) is the Asmussen barn's second entry and checks in with a 75.16 TrackWiz rating, backed by the highest average speed figure in the field at 55. Keith J. Asmussen rides, keeping it in-house, and the 3/1 morning line shows the public respects this one. When a trainer like Steven Asmussen has two horses in a race and one is priced at 3/1, the other often runs big — From Scratch is the one we'd tab to hit the board.

Bartender (2) rates third in our model at 71.19 with a solid 16% career win rate, and Gabriel Saez is a professional who can navigate a pace-heavy one-miler. For trainer Eric N. Foster, this looks like a spot where the horse fits on paper, and 4/1 isn't a bad price for a show investment. Use him in your trifectas as a solid underneath horse.

Keep On Moving (8) is quietly our second-best horse in the race with an 83.61 TrackWiz rating, and Ben Curtis is a steady, experienced rider who gets the most out of his mounts in sprint situations. The 15% career win rate is workmanlike, and at 7/2 on the morning line, there's legitimate value relative to the favorite. If Banned for Life sets the pace or stalks it, Keep On Moving looks like the most dangerous closer in here.

Colonel Caliente (5) offers real intrigue at 8/1 morning line with a 75.95 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — and Tyler Gaffalione takes the mount for Thomas Molloy. An average speed figure of 55 is strong, and the 11% career win rate in what appears to be tougher company suggests there's room to improve in this spot. He's our value show play and a must-use in the trifecta.

Sutura (16) is our second-ranked horse at 78.11 with an average speed figure of 55 — both marks standing up well in this large field. Jack Sisterson conditions this one, and the 5/2 morning line actually makes Sutura the second choice on the board. In a long-field turf maiden, stalking speed and making one sustained run is often the winning recipe, and Sisterson's runners tend to be well-prepared for their first grass starts.

Conquering Marin (3) rates third in our model at 68.73 and brings Flavien Prat — one of the finest turf riders in North America — for trainer Brendan P. Walsh. Walsh fires with two horses here, which is a confident statement from a barn that knows how to place horses. At 5/1 morning line, Conquering Marin is a value play underneath in a race where the top of our model is loaded with solid runners.

Modern Sound (5) is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 with Irad Ortiz, Jr. aboard for Michael J. Maker — a formidable combination — and a 77.92 TrackWiz rating confirms she belongs at the top of this field. The 12% career win rate is a bit underwhelming for a horse sent off this short, but Maker knows how to get horses ready, and Ortiz rarely loses ground in sprint races. She's a solid place investment if the price compresses too much to play win.

Call Me Christine (1) is the most intriguing value play on the board here at 12/1, carrying a 73.96 TrackWiz rating that ranks third in the field — a horse rated this highly at double-digit odds in a sprint deserves attention. The 50% career win rate jumps off the page, and while sample size may be modest, that number reflects a horse that consistently converts when pointed correctly. Alexander Bendezu gets the rail draw for Ralph Martinez, and if she gets a clean break, the price makes her a must-use in your trifecta.

Rileytole (7) rates second in our model at 61.9 and draws Keith J. Asmussen for trainer Steven Asmussen — the barn clearly showing confidence by keeping the mount in-house. A 25% career win rate in allowance company tells you this horse can get the job done, and the 8/1 morning line offers real value for a horse trained by one of the sport's elite conditioners. She's our top value play for the place and a great underneath horse in exactas.

Movie Night (5) carries a 50% career win rate and Flavien Prat in the irons — one of the highest-profile jockey bookings on the card — for trainer William Walden. The 7/5 morning line makes her the public's top choice, but our model has her third at 59.33, suggesting she may be slightly overbet. She's a reasonable show play and saver, but we'd rather be on Wrong Shoes at the longer price than chase this one down to near even money.

Exact Estimate (7) checks in second in our model at 82.7 with a 25% career win rate — one of the stronger winning percentages among the contenders — and Irad Ortiz, Jr. picks up the mount for Joe Sharp. Sharp is a consistent winner at Churchill Downs, and pairing him with Ortiz on a grass mile is a combination you don't fade lightly. The 4/1 morning line gives you a touch of value on a horse that projects to run a very big race.

Tough Little Nut (8) rates third in our model at 60.51 and draws Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. for trainer Chris M. Block — a solid local combination on the Churchill turf. At 8/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value for a horse that sits clearly above the mid-pack in our ratings. An 11% career win rate with an average speed figure of 54 isn't flashy, but in a wide-open turf field, the third-best horse at double-digit odds is exactly the show play you want.