Daily Picks

Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — June 24, 2026

Wednesday, June 24, 20269 racesChurchill Downs

It's a beautiful Wednesday at Churchill Downs — clear skies, 77°F, and the kind of firm, fast conditions that reward horses who want to run. Nine races are on the board today, mixing claiming routes, maiden sprints, and a pair of allowance optional claiming bouts that should draw some genuinely competitive fields.

The card has a nice range to it: you've got short sprints on the main track, a mile maiden on the turf in Race 6, and a turf AOC closer in Race 9 that should be a fun one to dig into. If you're building multi-race tickets today, this is a card that rewards patience — the real meat is in the back half.

Conditions couldn't be much better. A dry track with no rain in the forecast means surface moisture isn't a factor, and times should be honest throughout the afternoon. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A wide-open claiming opener at 1 1/16 miles where the TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear top tier — but two horses at big prices are knocking on the door of heavy favorites.

win4King of HollywoodML 8/1

King of Hollywood (4) leads our TrackWiz ratings by a comfortable margin with an 79.79 score, well clear of the next tier in this field. Alexander Bendezu gets the call for Ralph Martinez, and the 25% career win rate tells you this horse knows how to finish. At 8/1 on the morning line, he's priced like a longshot despite sitting atop our model — that's a gap we want to exploit in a 1 1/16-mile dirt route where his profile fits nicely. Don't let the odds fool you; this is our best bet in Race 1.

place9Top Gun TommyML 6/1

Top Gun Tommy (9) brings the highest average speed figure in the field at 56 and a strong 27% career win rate — both numbers that stand out in a claiming field like this. Cristian A. Torres is aboard for Robert B. Hess, Jr., and the 72.89 TrackWiz rating gives him a clear edge over the mid-pack. If King of Hollywood leads, Tommy should be tracking right behind him with a big closing kick.

show7Great EscapeML 7/2

Great Escape (7) checks in with a 66.31 rating and draws Irad Ortiz, Jr. — one of the best riders in the country — which is a meaningful upgrade in a race like this. The 7/2 morning line makes him the public's choice, and while our model has him third, that Ortiz factor keeps him very much alive in the exacta and trifecta. Use him underneath in your exotics as a safe landing spot.

Race 2

5:14 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Baby race chaos — this maiden claiming sprint is loaded with first-time starters and limited form to go on, but one horse separates himself from the pack in a way that's hard to ignore.

win9Joe Joe DudeML 5/2

Joe Joe Dude (9) is the standout here, posting a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — a full 32 points clear of the next horse in the field, which is a massive gap in any race. He's shown an average speed figure of 54, which leads the horses in this field who have any recorded works or times. Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the mount for trainer Joe Sharp, and that Sharp-Ortiz combination is one you pay attention to at Churchill Downs. At 5/2 on the morning line, he's rightly installed as the favorite and we have no interest in fading him.

place7Rhinestone RunnerML 7/2

Rhinestone Runner (7) draws Luis Saez and comes in as our second-ranked horse with a 55.83 rating — a comfortable margin over the rest of the maiden field. Trainer Eddie Kenneally has a solid reputation for getting debut runners ready, and the 7/2 morning line reflects legitimate public support. In a maiden sprint where pace can get hectic, having Saez guiding a well-prepped runner is a real advantage.

show4Jack's BackML 9/2

Jack's Back (4) is the lone Asmussen barn entry with a recorded average speed figure of 53, giving him a form edge over several first-timers in here. The 54.17 TrackWiz rating puts him third overall, and Keith J. Asmussen in the saddle keeps the operation in-house — always worth noting when a powerhouse trainer trusts a family member on a specific horse. At 9/2, he makes plenty of sense in the exotics underneath the top two.

Race 3

5:43 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A starter allowance route that sets up as a three-horse battle at the top, with the morning-line favorite actually our third choice — that kind of inversion is where value hides.

win4Miss EllaryML 5/2

Miss Ellary (4) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — the highest mark in this field — and Tyler Gaffalione is one of the most reliable jockeys in the country when it comes to sitting a trip. Trainer Lauren Robson spots her well here, and an average speed figure of 54 backs up what the model is saying. At 5/2 on the morning line, the public is on board with our thinking, and that's fine — sometimes the chalk is the right call.

place6Don't Be SaltyML 4/1

Don't Be Salty (6) has the most impressive career win rate in this field at 33%, and that winning pedigree matters in starter allowance company. Irad Ortiz, Jr. picks up the mount for Kinnon LaRose, and with an 81.53 TrackWiz rating she's only a nose behind our top pick. The 4/1 morning line offers legitimate value if she can track the pace and pounce late.

show5Next UpML 6/5

Next Up (5) is the morning-line favorite at 6/5, but our model actually ranks her third behind Miss Ellary and Don't Be Salty — a divergence worth noting. That said, an 18% career win rate and a 77.44 TrackWiz rating are both respectable, and Luan Machado is a capable pilot. We'd rather use her for show or as a saver in exactas than invest heavily at odds that may not offer value.

We're giving every reader a look at the first three races today, and there's some genuine value hiding in plain sight. King of Hollywood opens the card at 8/1 morning line in a claiming route — that kind of price on a horse our models rate at 79.79 is worth a hard look, especially early when the public money hasn't fully shaped the pools. In Race 2, Joe Joe Dude draws in as the likely favorite off a 5/2 morning line in a maiden claiming sprint, backed by one of our stronger ratings on the free portion of the card at 87.81. Miss Ellary rounds out the free trio in the Race 3 starter allowance, also checking in at 87.81 — a rating that suggests she belongs near the top of this field at a fair price.

One thing to watch across these early dirt races: horses with tactical speed who can settle just off a contested pace have been rewarded on this surface in similar conditions. Don't automatically side with the front-runners — the closers deserve a look if the early fractions heat up.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:13 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

This one-mile dirt claimer features a pair of Asmussen trainees splitting bettors, but our TrackWiz model points clearly away from the morning-line favorite toward a significant overlay.

win5BamtwentyklaterML 8/1

Bamtwentyklater (5) leads our TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 and represents outstanding value at 8/1 on the morning line — a horse this highly rated at a price like that is exactly what we look for. Summer Pauly takes the mount for Ed Moger, Jr., and the 10% career win rate is modest, but the model's confidence in this runner's recent form is strong. The pace setup in a one-mile dirt claimer should suit a horse that can sit just off the early speed and pounce, and we think Bamtwentyklater fills that role.

place7From ScratchML 3/1

From Scratch (7) is the Asmussen barn's second entry and checks in with a 75.16 TrackWiz rating, backed by the highest average speed figure in the field at 55. Keith J. Asmussen rides, keeping it in-house, and the 3/1 morning line shows the public respects this one. When a trainer like Steven Asmussen has two horses in a race and one is priced at 3/1, the other often runs big — From Scratch is the one we'd tab to hit the board.

show2BartenderML 4/1

Bartender (2) rates third in our model at 71.19 with a solid 16% career win rate, and Gabriel Saez is a professional who can navigate a pace-heavy one-miler. For trainer Eric N. Foster, this looks like a spot where the horse fits on paper, and 4/1 isn't a bad price for a show investment. Use him in your trifectas as a solid underneath horse.

Race 5

6:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A loaded seven-furlong claiming dash headlined by a dominant top-rated runner, but a legitimate second horse and a sneaky value play make this race worth spreading in exotics.

win4Banned for LifeML 9/5

Banned for Life (4) is our top-rated horse in this race with an 88.83 TrackWiz score — the highest rating in the field by five points — and posts an average speed figure of 56, matching the best in the field. Irad Ortiz, Jr. is aboard for the powerful Joe Sharp barn, and that combination alone commands respect in a sprint. The 9/5 morning line reflects justified favoritism, and the 13% career win rate is the only caveat — but speed figure dominance at a route of ground this short often wins races regardless.

place8Keep On MovingML 7/2

Keep On Moving (8) is quietly our second-best horse in the race with an 83.61 TrackWiz rating, and Ben Curtis is a steady, experienced rider who gets the most out of his mounts in sprint situations. The 15% career win rate is workmanlike, and at 7/2 on the morning line, there's legitimate value relative to the favorite. If Banned for Life sets the pace or stalks it, Keep On Moving looks like the most dangerous closer in here.

show5Colonel CalienteML 8/1

Colonel Caliente (5) offers real intrigue at 8/1 morning line with a 75.95 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — and Tyler Gaffalione takes the mount for Thomas Molloy. An average speed figure of 55 is strong, and the 11% career win rate in what appears to be tougher company suggests there's room to improve in this spot. He's our value show play and a must-use in the trifecta.

Race 6

7:18 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A full field maiden special weight on the Churchill turf with sixteen runners creates a chaotic pace picture, but our model finds a clear standout — and a strong second horse at a price worth stacking underneath.

win8Munnings TalksML 3/1

Munnings Talks (8) tops our TrackWiz ratings with an 87.08 score and draws Tyler Gaffalione — who also rides our second choice, making this a jockey booking worth tracking. Trainer Brendan P. Walsh is one of the premier grass conditioners in the country, and his maiden turf runners at Churchill command significant respect. The 3/1 morning line is fair, and in a sixteen-horse field on the grass, getting a Walsh-Gaffalione combo with the top rating is a situation we want to be on.

place16SuturaML 5/2

Sutura (16) is our second-ranked horse at 78.11 with an average speed figure of 55 — both marks standing up well in this large field. Jack Sisterson conditions this one, and the 5/2 morning line actually makes Sutura the second choice on the board. In a long-field turf maiden, stalking speed and making one sustained run is often the winning recipe, and Sisterson's runners tend to be well-prepared for their first grass starts.

show3Conquering MarinML 5/1

Conquering Marin (3) rates third in our model at 68.73 and brings Flavien Prat — one of the finest turf riders in North America — for trainer Brendan P. Walsh. Walsh fires with two horses here, which is a confident statement from a barn that knows how to place horses. At 5/1 morning line, Conquering Marin is a value play underneath in a race where the top of our model is loaded with solid runners.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The six-furlong sprint in Race 7 sets up as a clash between the morning-line favorite and a horse our model rates higher — that kind of divergence from the public is exactly where overlay value gets created.

win9TaqdeerML 6/1

Taqdeer (9) leads our TrackWiz model at 79.53 — nearly two full points ahead of the 9/5 favorite Modern Sound — and comes in at 6/1 on the morning line, creating immediate overlay value. Luan Machado takes the mount for trainer Robert C. Cline, and a 16% career win rate in what looks like a competitive field is respectable. The average speed figure of 54 is right in the mix, and in a six-furlong sprint, a horse with this rating at this price is precisely the kind of bet that builds a bankroll.

place5Modern SoundML 9/5

Modern Sound (5) is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 with Irad Ortiz, Jr. aboard for Michael J. Maker — a formidable combination — and a 77.92 TrackWiz rating confirms she belongs at the top of this field. The 12% career win rate is a bit underwhelming for a horse sent off this short, but Maker knows how to get horses ready, and Ortiz rarely loses ground in sprint races. She's a solid place investment if the price compresses too much to play win.

show1Call Me ChristineML 12/1

Call Me Christine (1) is the most intriguing value play on the board here at 12/1, carrying a 73.96 TrackWiz rating that ranks third in the field — a horse rated this highly at double-digit odds in a sprint deserves attention. The 50% career win rate jumps off the page, and while sample size may be modest, that number reflects a horse that consistently converts when pointed correctly. Alexander Bendezu gets the rail draw for Ralph Martinez, and if she gets a clean break, the price makes her a must-use in your trifecta.

Race 8

8:22 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming sprint that looks like a public battle between two short-priced horses — but our model says the real standout is the one drawing the least chalk.

win2Wrong ShoesML 4/1

Wrong Shoes (2) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 — well clear of the next horse in the model — and posts a 20% career win rate with an average speed figure of 56 that matches the best in this field. Trainer John Alexander Ortiz spots her perfectly here, and Jaime A. Torres knows how to handle sprint trips from off the pace. At 4/1 on the morning line, she's a legitimate overlay relative to her model position, and we're making her our best bet in Race 8.

place7RileytoleML 8/1

Rileytole (7) rates second in our model at 61.9 and draws Keith J. Asmussen for trainer Steven Asmussen — the barn clearly showing confidence by keeping the mount in-house. A 25% career win rate in allowance company tells you this horse can get the job done, and the 8/1 morning line offers real value for a horse trained by one of the sport's elite conditioners. She's our top value play for the place and a great underneath horse in exactas.

show5Movie NightML 7/5

Movie Night (5) carries a 50% career win rate and Flavien Prat in the irons — one of the highest-profile jockey bookings on the card — for trainer William Walden. The 7/5 morning line makes her the public's top choice, but our model has her third at 59.33, suggesting she may be slightly overbet. She's a reasonable show play and saver, but we'd rather be on Wrong Shoes at the longer price than chase this one down to near even money.

Race 9

8:55 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

The closing turf allowance mile features a deep field with genuine contenders spread across the card, but our model finds two horses clearly separated from the pack — and a longshot show play with solid credentials.

win3Love'm Or LiamML 5/2

Love'm Or Liam (3) leads our TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and is trained by the legendary William I. Mott — one of the premier grass conditioners in North American racing. A 20% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54 are both respectable in allowance optional claiming turf company, and Jaime A. Torres takes the call. At 5/2 on the morning line, this is fairly priced for a Mott turf runner in a spot the trainer clearly identified as a fit.

place7Exact EstimateML 4/1

Exact Estimate (7) checks in second in our model at 82.7 with a 25% career win rate — one of the stronger winning percentages among the contenders — and Irad Ortiz, Jr. picks up the mount for Joe Sharp. Sharp is a consistent winner at Churchill Downs, and pairing him with Ortiz on a grass mile is a combination you don't fade lightly. The 4/1 morning line gives you a touch of value on a horse that projects to run a very big race.

show8Tough Little NutML 8/1

Tough Little Nut (8) rates third in our model at 60.51 and draws Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. for trainer Chris M. Block — a solid local combination on the Churchill turf. At 8/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value for a horse that sits clearly above the mid-pack in our ratings. An 11% career win rate with an average speed figure of 54 isn't flashy, but in a wide-open turf field, the third-best horse at double-digit odds is exactly the show play you want.

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Churchill Downs is set up beautifully today — fast conditions, a full nine-race card, and a handful of legitimate value angles scattered throughout. King of Hollywood, Joe Joe Dude, and Miss Ellary headline the free picks, but the premium card is where the sharpest plays are hiding, including Banned for Life and Wrong Shoes in two of the more competitive spots of the afternoon. Get the complete breakdown — pace projections, exotic tickets, and all nine races — with a TrackWiz Premium subscription. Good luck out there.

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