Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — June 28, 2026

Ez Miss Sassy comes in with a 54.17 rating for trainer Mark Casse, another barn that routinely sends out well-prepared debutantes. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides, and her average speed figure of 53 gives her a tangible benchmark in a field where most runners have no published figures at all. The 9/2 morning line is workable for a place ticket.

Hormesis at 6/1 is an interesting show play — also trained by Kinnon LaRose, who doubles in this race with Intraosseous. LaRose clearly has confidence in both entries, and Hormesis draws Ben Curtis, a capable veteran who can manage a large field. A TrackWiz rating of 51.67 ties her with several others, but the connections and price point make her worth including in the show spot.

Thunder Appeal is the Wesley Ward entry at 4/1 with Jose Ortiz up, and Ward is one of the most respected turf debut specialists in American racing — his juveniles and first-time starters on the grass consistently outperform their morning lines. A TrackWiz rating of 74.51 is second in the field, and an average speed figure of 55 suggests real ability. He's the natural main rival to Dismiss.

Stable Hero at 8/1 gives us a juicy show option — a 63.35 rating for trainer Randy Morse with Edgar Morales aboard, and an average speed of 54 shows he's been doing something right in the mornings. In a large maiden field on the turf where chaos is the norm, Stable Hero has the profile of a horse who sneaks into the exacta or trifecta at a price.

Chunk of Gold is the 8/5 favorite for good reason — a 30% career win rate and an 80.42 TrackWiz rating make her a genuine contender. Junior Alvarado rides for Ethan West, and at the 1 1/16-mile distance, her average speed of 54 should translate well. She's the logical place anchor in the exacta if Publisher steals the show at the better price.

Gould's Gold at 3/1 comes in with a 78.37 TrackWiz rating and Emmanuel Esquivel in the irons for Kenny McPeek — a trainer who runs horses into form, not out of it. The average speed of 54 matches the top tier of this field, and at a fair morning line price, Gould's Gold is the natural show play and a key trifecta piece. Don't overlook her if pace devolves into a grinding stretch battle.

Big Trouble at 8/1 is the value play for place tickets — a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 makes her the second-best horse in the race by our numbers, yet she opens at more than twice the odds of the favorite. Tyler Gaffalione rides for Gregory Foley, and her average speed of 57 is second only to Mae Town in this field. She's the kind of horse who outperforms her odds in the place pool.

Satin Blue slots in as the show pick at 9/2 — a 71.96 TrackWiz rating with Jose Ortiz aboard for Joe Sharp, who sends out plenty of sharp turf runners. Her average speed of 58 is excellent for this level, and the 21% career win rate shows she can finish the job. A natural trifecta piece who could easily outrun her morning line.

Pierette ships in for Mark Casse with Jose Ortiz up, and her 56.67 TrackWiz rating is second in the field. The 3/1 morning line reflects public confidence, and with an average speed figure of 56, she has legitimate stakes-level ability. She's the natural main rival to Lack of Riesling and a must-use in exactas.

Epic Reign at 4/1 for Steve Asmussen with Keith Asmussen aboard gives you a powerful trainer-jockey combination in a six-furlong stakes. The 55.00 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the race, and an average speed figure of 54 is serviceable at this distance. For trifecta players, Epic Reign is a logical third piece who won't be overlooked by the crowd.

He Is No Lie opens at 3/1 for Doug O'Neill with Emisael Jaramillo up, and the 56.67 TrackWiz rating slots in directly behind our win pick. O'Neill has a long track record of competitive stakes runners, and while no average speed figure is published for this horse, the overall rating and connections make him a legitimate threat to take the place spot. He's the horse most likely to give Hey Tuff Guy a fight in the stretch.

Captain Luke at 5/1 is a Asmussen-trained runner with Keith Asmussen in the saddle, and a 53.33 TrackWiz rating alongside an average speed of 56 gives him measurable ability. In a race where the top two are closely matched, a pace duel could set up perfectly for a fresh-legged runner to swoop for third. Captain Luke is the right show play on a competitive trifecta ticket.

Prize Pick at 6/1 is our value play for the place — a 55.02 TrackWiz rating for Brian Lynch with Luis Saez aboard, and an average speed of 55 keeps him competitive in this seven-furlong trip. A 33% career win rate on a reasonable sample is respectable, and at 6/1, the place pool should offer genuine overlay value if the crowd hammers Deep Flame below morning line.

American Man is a sneaky show play at 12/1 — a 53.19 TrackWiz rating paired with an impressive 66% career win rate, which is the highest of any horse in this field. Trainer Dallas Stewart has a history of finding the right spots for his horses, and Cristian Torres takes the mount. The average speed of 56 matches the best in the race, and the 12/1 price makes him an attractive trifecta inclusion.

Dragoon Guard is the Brad Cox/Irad Ortiz Jr. combination at 4/1, and that barn-jockey combo in a one-mile dirt stakes is never to be overlooked. The 84.57 TrackWiz rating is essentially a dead heat with Tour Player, and a 38% career win rate on what appears to be a meaningful sample suggests consistent class. He's the most dangerous rival and a must-include in the exacta.

Crazy Mason at 6/1 is our show pick — a 66.83 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field, and an average speed of 56 gives him the best speed figure of any horse outside the top two. Junior Alvarado rides for Gregory Sacco, and a 25% career win rate shows this horse can close the deal. He's the right third leg for a competitive trifecta and could easily outrun a 6/1 tag.

Audra opens at 3/1 for Brad Cox with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle — two of the most accomplished names in the sport pairing up in a maiden sprint. The 56.67 TrackWiz rating is second in the field, and an average speed of 56 suggests she's done real work at home. Cox maidens ridden by Ortiz consistently hit the board, and she's the natural main rival to Moona Lisa.

Zengraya at 8/1 is an intriguing show play — a 53.47 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field for trainer Gregory Foley, and Adam Beschizza is an underrated rider who handles longshots and mid-priced horses with savvy. An average speed of 54 gives her a measurable edge over most of this field, and at 8/1 she offers real show overlay value in a race dominated by two short-priced runners.