Daily Picks

Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — June 28, 2026

Sunday, June 28, 202611 racesChurchill Downs

Churchill Downs rolls out an 11-race card on Sunday, June 28, and the conditions couldn't be more cooperative. Skies are partly cloudy and temps are sitting at a comfortable 82°F — the kind of afternoon that keeps both dirt and turf surfaces honest and gives pace scenarios a chance to play out naturally.

What makes today's card worth your full attention is the stakes-heavy back half. Races 7 through 10 are all Stakes events, giving us four consecutive graded-or-conditions-level battles across both six furlongs and a classic one-mile trip. That's a rare concentration of quality that opens up some legitimate multi-race exotic angles for serious players.

Three races are available free to all TrackWiz readers — Races 1, 2, and 3 — with our full 11-race breakdown locked in for subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A wide-open 1 1/16-mile claimer on dirt where the TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear top trio separated from the rest of the field — but the morning line underestimates at least one of them.

win8GhazaalyML 2/1

Ghazaaly tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 — the highest mark in the field by a meaningful margin — and Emisael Jaramillo picks up the mount for a Doug O'Neill barn that knows how to place horses in spots where they can win. The 2/1 morning line makes him the chalk, and for once the crowd may have it right. His average speed figure of 54 is in line with the field's upper tier, but it's the overall rating gap that makes him stand out here.

place3I Don't Get ItML 6/1

I Don't Get It draws the #3 post for trainer Jordan Blair and comes in with a TrackWiz rating of 73.56 — second-best in the field — alongside a 25% career win rate that speaks to consistency. At 6/1 on the morning line, there's genuine place value here if Ghazaaly soaks up pressure on the front end and leaves the door open for a closer.

show6Alternate RealityML 5/2

Alternate Reality sits third in the TrackWiz ratings at 72.81 with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons — always a meaningful upgrade. The 5/2 morning line suggests the public respects this one, and with Joe Sharp saddling, the connections are sharp enough to have this horse fit and ready. A solid exotic anchor in a race where the top three ratings are clustered together.

Race 2

5:15 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

This 6.5-furlong allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares features a genuine pace battle brewing at the top, with the morning line undervaluing one of the highest-rated runners on the card.

win2OutrageouslyML 6/1

Outrageously is our top selection at 6/1 — a morning line that looks generous given her 82.71 TrackWiz rating and a career win percentage of 40%, which is elite in any company. Trainer Jordan Blair and jockey Edgar Morales are paired up again, and the 6.5-furlong sprint distance suits a filly posting an average speed figure of 55. If she fires her best, she should be too good for this field.

place3MargoinabubblebathML 7/2

Margoinabubblebath is a logical place play at 7/2 — she carries the top average speed figure in the race at 56 and her 30% career win rate shows she's capable of finishing the job. Axel Concepcion handles the riding duties for Michael Tomlinson, and the price represents fair value given she's one of only two horses in this field to post a speed number of 56 or better.

show7Blue FireML 3/1

Blue Fire might be the most dangerous horse in here at 3/1, and trainer Steve Asmussen's 42% career win rate on this runner is an eye-catching number. Jose Ortiz pilots, giving her a top-five jockey in North America, and her TrackWiz rating of 78.08 sits firmly in contention range. She's the logical hedge for show tickets and a key player in exotics.

Race 3

5:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A sprawling 16-horse maiden special weight sprint with first-time starters and lightly raced juveniles — the kind of wide-open race where pace shape and trainer patterns matter more than a thin speed figure record.

win4Cruising AgainML 7/2

Cruising Again gets the nod at 7/2 for trainer Dale Romans, one of the most respected maiden conditioners at Churchill Downs. Romans has a knack for having his first-time starters ready to fire, and Martin Garcia in the saddle adds a veteran presence. The TrackWiz rating of 55.83 leads this field, and in a maiden full of unknowns, that edge at a fair price is worth taking.

place5Ez Miss SassyML 9/2

Ez Miss Sassy comes in with a 54.17 rating for trainer Mark Casse, another barn that routinely sends out well-prepared debutantes. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides, and her average speed figure of 53 gives her a tangible benchmark in a field where most runners have no published figures at all. The 9/2 morning line is workable for a place ticket.

show16HormesisML 6/1

Hormesis at 6/1 is an interesting show play — also trained by Kinnon LaRose, who doubles in this race with Intraosseous. LaRose clearly has confidence in both entries, and Hormesis draws Ben Curtis, a capable veteran who can manage a large field. A TrackWiz rating of 51.67 ties her with several others, but the connections and price point make her worth including in the show spot.

Our three free plays today span a full mile and a sixteenth of claiming competition, a 6½-furlong allowance optional claiming sprint, and a maiden special weight at six furlongs — a solid cross-section of the day's early card. Ghazaaly opens the day as our top-rated pick at 88.54 and draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 for good reason. In a 1 1/16-mile claiming route on dirt, pace endurance is everything, and our model likes what it sees from that corner of the field.

Race 2 is where the early value lives. Outrageously is our top selection at 6/1 on the morning line — that's a price worth circling. In allowance optional claiming sprints, overlays at 6/1 don't come around every day, and our rating of 82.71 suggests the public may be underestimating this one. Race 3 opens the maiden ranks; Cruising Again tops our board at 7/2, though the rating reflects the inherent volatility that comes with maiden dirt sprints — expect some chaos, and play accordingly.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:15 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A massive 16-horse maiden on the Churchill turf strip where two horses separate themselves from the pack on ratings, and the public is likely to underbet the most interesting price in the field.

win15DismissML 6/1

Dismiss opens at 6/1 and carries a 82.71 TrackWiz rating — by far the highest in this maiden turf field and nearly eight points clear of the second-best horse. Trainer Pavel Matejka pairs with Mario Gutierrez, and the average speed figure of 57 ties for the top mark in the race alongside Beijing. In maiden company on the turf, a horse with this kind of rating edge at a double-digit implied probability is worth backing with confidence.

place8Thunder AppealML 4/1

Thunder Appeal is the Wesley Ward entry at 4/1 with Jose Ortiz up, and Ward is one of the most respected turf debut specialists in American racing — his juveniles and first-time starters on the grass consistently outperform their morning lines. A TrackWiz rating of 74.51 is second in the field, and an average speed figure of 55 suggests real ability. He's the natural main rival to Dismiss.

show10Stable HeroML 8/1

Stable Hero at 8/1 gives us a juicy show option — a 63.35 rating for trainer Randy Morse with Edgar Morales aboard, and an average speed of 54 shows he's been doing something right in the mornings. In a large maiden field on the turf where chaos is the norm, Stable Hero has the profile of a horse who sneaks into the exacta or trifecta at a price.

Race 5

6:47 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The morning line makes Chunk of Gold the heavy favorite in this 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer, but TrackWiz sees a different horse at the top of the rankings — and the price difference is significant.

win6PublisherML 5/1

Publisher is our top pick at 5/1, leading the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 despite being third on the morning line. Trainer Steve Asmussen deploys Jose Ortiz, a combination that has delivered countless big days at Churchill Downs. Publisher's average speed figure of 54 is squarely in the mix, and at nearly 3-1 better odds than the morning-line favorite, there's a clear value argument here.

place2Chunk of GoldML 8/5

Chunk of Gold is the 8/5 favorite for good reason — a 30% career win rate and an 80.42 TrackWiz rating make her a genuine contender. Junior Alvarado rides for Ethan West, and at the 1 1/16-mile distance, her average speed of 54 should translate well. She's the logical place anchor in the exacta if Publisher steals the show at the better price.

show5Gould's GoldML 3/1

Gould's Gold at 3/1 comes in with a 78.37 TrackWiz rating and Emmanuel Esquivel in the irons for Kenny McPeek — a trainer who runs horses into form, not out of it. The average speed of 54 matches the top tier of this field, and at a fair morning line price, Gould's Gold is the natural show play and a key trifecta piece. Don't overlook her if pace devolves into a grinding stretch battle.

Race 6

7:19 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Mae Town figures to be a short-priced favorite in this 5.5-furlong turf allowance, but there's a legitimate double-digit underdog lurking that could disrupt the exotics.

win2Mae TownML 3/1

Mae Town is our top selection and frankly the standout in this field — an 84.50 TrackWiz rating, a 40% career win rate, and the highest average speed figure in the race at 59. Florent Geroux takes the mount for Brian Lynch, and this filly's profile screams class superiority in a sprint turf allowance. The 3/1 morning line is short, but the numbers back it up.

place4Big TroubleML 8/1

Big Trouble at 8/1 is the value play for place tickets — a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 makes her the second-best horse in the race by our numbers, yet she opens at more than twice the odds of the favorite. Tyler Gaffalione rides for Gregory Foley, and her average speed of 57 is second only to Mae Town in this field. She's the kind of horse who outperforms her odds in the place pool.

show7Satin BlueML 9/2

Satin Blue slots in as the show pick at 9/2 — a 71.96 TrackWiz rating with Jose Ortiz aboard for Joe Sharp, who sends out plenty of sharp turf runners. Her average speed of 58 is excellent for this level, and the 21% career win rate shows she can finish the job. A natural trifecta piece who could easily outrun her morning line.

Race 7

7:53 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

A stakes sprint on dirt where most of the field shows perfect career records but limited published data — making this a ratings-driven puzzle where the one horse with a different profile stands out.

win6Lack of RieslingML 5/2

Lack of Riesling is our win pick at 5/2, and the key differentiator here is straightforward — she carries the top TrackWiz rating at 57.50 with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons for Philip D'Amato. While several horses in this field show 100% career win rates suggesting limited racing experience, Lack of Riesling's 50% win rate on a larger sample size — combined with the top rating — signals a more seasoned competitor. D'Amato and Ortiz Jr. is a formidable combination for a stakes sprint.

place2PieretteML 3/1

Pierette ships in for Mark Casse with Jose Ortiz up, and her 56.67 TrackWiz rating is second in the field. The 3/1 morning line reflects public confidence, and with an average speed figure of 56, she has legitimate stakes-level ability. She's the natural main rival to Lack of Riesling and a must-use in exactas.

show3Epic ReignML 4/1

Epic Reign at 4/1 for Steve Asmussen with Keith Asmussen aboard gives you a powerful trainer-jockey combination in a six-furlong stakes. The 55.00 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the race, and an average speed figure of 54 is serviceable at this distance. For trifecta players, Epic Reign is a logical third piece who won't be overlooked by the crowd.

Race 8

8:25 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

Another stakes sprint for what appears to be lightly raced runners, with Hey Tuff Guy emerging as the clear ratings leader — though a pair of horses trained by powerhouse barns could spring an upset.

win8Hey Tuff GuyML 9/5

Hey Tuff Guy is our top selection at 9/5, and the TrackWiz rating of 58.67 is the highest in this stakes field. Brian Lynch sends him out with Mario Gutierrez in the irons — a trainer who has been sharp in sprint company — and an average speed figure of 56 gives him a concrete benchmark most rivals can't match. The public has correctly identified him as the favorite, and the numbers support that assessment.

place7He Is No LieML 3/1

He Is No Lie opens at 3/1 for Doug O'Neill with Emisael Jaramillo up, and the 56.67 TrackWiz rating slots in directly behind our win pick. O'Neill has a long track record of competitive stakes runners, and while no average speed figure is published for this horse, the overall rating and connections make him a legitimate threat to take the place spot. He's the horse most likely to give Hey Tuff Guy a fight in the stretch.

show5Captain LukeML 5/1

Captain Luke at 5/1 is a Asmussen-trained runner with Keith Asmussen in the saddle, and a 53.33 TrackWiz rating alongside an average speed of 56 gives him measurable ability. In a race where the top two are closely matched, a pace duel could set up perfectly for a fresh-legged runner to swoop for third. Captain Luke is the right show play on a competitive trifecta ticket.

Race 9

8:56 PM EDT

Stakes · 7 fur · Dirt

Deep Flame enters this seven-furlong stakes as the overwhelming TrackWiz favorite with a rating nearly 34 points clear of the field — a potential wire-to-wire performance looms if the pace sets up in his favor.

win7Deep FlameML 9/5

Deep Flame is as close to a standout as you'll find on today's card — an 88.83 TrackWiz rating, Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons, and Brad Cox training. That's about as strong a connections profile as it gets at Churchill Downs. The 9/5 morning line reflects public respect, and an average speed figure of 56 gives him a legitimate edge on a field where no other horse cracks 56. Ortiz Jr. will have this horse in the right spot throughout.

place6Prize PickML 6/1

Prize Pick at 6/1 is our value play for the place — a 55.02 TrackWiz rating for Brian Lynch with Luis Saez aboard, and an average speed of 55 keeps him competitive in this seven-furlong trip. A 33% career win rate on a reasonable sample is respectable, and at 6/1, the place pool should offer genuine overlay value if the crowd hammers Deep Flame below morning line.

show5American ManML 12/1

American Man is a sneaky show play at 12/1 — a 53.19 TrackWiz rating paired with an impressive 66% career win rate, which is the highest of any horse in this field. Trainer Dallas Stewart has a history of finding the right spots for his horses, and Cristian Torres takes the mount. The average speed of 56 matches the best in the race, and the 12/1 price makes him an attractive trifecta inclusion.

Race 10

9:28 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

The nightcap features two horses — Tour Player and Dragoon Guard — locked in a dead heat on TrackWiz ratings at the top of a competitive one-mile stakes, setting up what could be the best race of the night.

win10Tour PlayerML 9/2

Tour Player edges out our win pick spot with an 84.90 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field by a razor-thin margin. Tyler Gaffalione rides for D. Whitworth Beckman, and a 45% career win rate is exceptional in stakes company. The 9/2 morning line represents genuine value for a horse who tops the ratings, and an average speed of 55 fits the profile of a one-mile specialist who should be comfortable going long.

place5Dragoon GuardML 4/1

Dragoon Guard is the Brad Cox/Irad Ortiz Jr. combination at 4/1, and that barn-jockey combo in a one-mile dirt stakes is never to be overlooked. The 84.57 TrackWiz rating is essentially a dead heat with Tour Player, and a 38% career win rate on what appears to be a meaningful sample suggests consistent class. He's the most dangerous rival and a must-include in the exacta.

show7Crazy MasonML 6/1

Crazy Mason at 6/1 is our show pick — a 66.83 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field, and an average speed of 56 gives him the best speed figure of any horse outside the top two. Junior Alvarado rides for Gregory Sacco, and a 25% career win rate shows this horse can close the deal. He's the right third leg for a competitive trifecta and could easily outrun a 6/1 tag.

Race 11

9:59 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The finale is a 14-horse maiden sprint on dirt where two horses with powerful connections separate themselves at the top — but a mid-priced filly trained by an elite barn lurks as a dangerous underneath play.

win2Moona LisaML 5/2

Moona Lisa is our top pick at 5/2 — the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 57.50 and the highest average speed figure at 57, which stands out in a maiden field where most runners are unproven. Bob Baffert trains and Flavien Prat rides, a combination that routinely wins maiden races at major tracks. That trainer-jockey pairing alone would warrant attention, and the underlying numbers make this a confident selection.

place10AudraML 3/1

Audra opens at 3/1 for Brad Cox with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle — two of the most accomplished names in the sport pairing up in a maiden sprint. The 56.67 TrackWiz rating is second in the field, and an average speed of 56 suggests she's done real work at home. Cox maidens ridden by Ortiz consistently hit the board, and she's the natural main rival to Moona Lisa.

show6ZengrayaML 8/1

Zengraya at 8/1 is an intriguing show play — a 53.47 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field for trainer Gregory Foley, and Adam Beschizza is an underrated rider who handles longshots and mid-priced horses with savvy. An average speed of 54 gives her a measurable edge over most of this field, and at 8/1 she offers real show overlay value in a race dominated by two short-priced runners.

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Today's Churchill Downs card is headlined by a deep stakes sequence and a handful of genuine overlay opportunities early. Ghazaaly and Outrageously are the free best bets to know, but Deep Flame is the name to watch when the afternoon really heats up. For pace projections, exotic ticket structures, and the full 11-race breakdown, TrackWiz subscribers have everything they need — check out /pricing to get on board before post time.

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