Daily Picks

Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — May 25, 2026

Monday, May 25, 20269 racesChurchill Downs

Happy Memorial Day Monday at Churchill Downs, where nine races are lined up under cloudy skies and a comfortable 76°F. The track should be in solid shape — no rain in the forecast to soften things up or shift the bias — so expect the dirt to play true and speed to get its fair test.

It's a card that spans the full spectrum: maiden claimers to kickoff the day, a couple of turf routes mixed in, and a stakes sprint in Race 8 to give the afternoon some real teeth. Whether you're fading the chalk or riding the morning-line favorites, there's plenty here to work with.

TrackWiz has analysis on all nine races. Races 1–3 are open to everyone. Races 4–9 — including the stakes and a pair of grass races with some genuinely interesting longshot angles — are unlocked for subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer where the morning line tells the whole story — Wesley Ward's runner draws heavy support against a field of unproven youngsters, but a couple of sneaky form lines could make this more competitive than the odds suggest.

win9DontworryboutnothnML 2/1

Dontworryboutnothn (9) tops the TrackWiz ratings with an 58.33 score, the best in this field, and draws the coveted support of Wesley Ward — one of the sport's elite trainers when pointing first-time starters toward a spot like this. The 2/1 morning line reflects that respect, and with an average speed figure of 56 — highest among horses with recorded works in this race — there's legitimate reason to expect a forward effort. Ward's barn has a well-documented track record of sending debut runners to the wire ready to run, and that's the key angle here.

place11Captain GabeML 7/2

Captain Gabe (11) rates second in the field with a 55.83 TrackWiz score and comes in under the care of Michael W. McCarthy, a trainer who knows how to place a horse. The 7/2 morning line suggests the market agrees there's real ability here, and the average speed figure of 54 puts him right in the mix off the pace scenario. If Dontworryboutnothn gets any trouble at all, Captain Gabe looks like the natural heir to the exacta spot.

show6Ghost ProtocolML 6/1

Ghost Protocol (6) brings the top average speed figure in the field at 58 — yes, higher than the win pick — which makes the 6/1 morning line an intriguing overlay in the show slot. Trainer J. Kent Sweezey doesn't light up the barn stats, but a horse that's been working to this number deserves respect at the price. Include him in your trifecta tickets as a live outside piece.

Race 2

5:14 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Three lightly-raced first-out runners cluster at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden special weight sprint, setting up a potential three-way battle that should sort itself out in the final sixteenth.

win5Bourbon TownML 8/5

Bourbon Town (5) is the top-rated horse in the field with a 59.0 TrackWiz score and lands with Tyler Gaffalione, one of Churchill Downs' most reliable big-meet pilots. Trainer Rey Hernandez sends this one out at 8/5 on the morning line — a number that reflects genuine confidence from the connections. With no speed figures on record, the workout tab is clearly doing the talking, and Gaffalione's presence suggests they believe this horse is ready to fire first crack.

place7Hey Tuff GuyML 3/1

Hey Tuff Guy (7) rates a strong 56.67 and comes from the barn of Brian A. Lynch, a trainer who consistently gets his debut runners competitive at first asking. Mario Gutierrez, a seasoned hand at Churchill, picks up the mount at 3/1 on the morning line — that's not an accident. He could easily be the one running Bourbon Town down in the final strides if the favorite gets too far out in front early.

show1Time for ActionML 7/2

Time for Action (1) checks in with a 55.83 TrackWiz rating and wears the silks of Mark Casse, a Hall of Fame trainer whose barn regularly produces debut threats. The 7/2 morning line is fair value for a horse that figures to be sat just off the pace and finishing strong late in a five-and-a-half furlong sprint. A natural closer profile in a race that could get fast early makes him an attractive show and exotic play.

Race 3

5:43 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 3/8 mi · Turf

Two horses separate themselves from the rest of this allowance turf field by a wide margin — but they're trained by different top outfits and carry very different pace profiles, which should make the stretch run on the lawn a genuine battle.

win3SnipsnippitysnipML 2/1

Snipsnippitysnip (3) is the clear TrackWiz top pick here with a massive 88.54 rating, the highest in today's field by several lengths. Trained by Brendan Walsh — as sharp a turf conditioner as you'll find at Churchill — and piloted by the in-form Tyler Gaffalione, the connections alone inspire confidence. A career win rate of 11% over a distance of 1 3/8 miles on the turf suggests this horse has been pointing toward exactly this setup, and the 2/1 morning line is likely a fair price given the edge the ratings show.

place4Worry Be GoneML 8/5

Worry Be Gone (4) is no slouch — an 80.62 rating and a sparkling 33% career win rate make her one of the most proven horses on the card today. Brad Cox trains and Luan Machado rides, a potent combination on the Churchill turf. The 8/5 morning line makes her the public's slight favorite, and there's a legitimate argument she wins this race; the place slot simply reflects that Snipsnippitysnip's edge in our ratings is enough to flip the order.

show7Plaza AtheneeML 3/1

Plaza Athenee (7) is the third horse worth keeping in your exotics with a 56.67 rating and the advantage of also being trained by Brendan Walsh. When a trainer saddles two horses in the same race, the second runner sometimes benefits from pace-shaping tactics, and Walsh will have a clear team strategy. Ben Curtis, an accomplished turf jockey in his own right, picks up this mount at 3/1 — the stable knows something.

Our three free races today lean heavily on the early part of the card and give you a solid foundation before the money races heat up. Dontworryboutnothn opens the day in a maiden claimer at 2/1 on the morning line and posted one of the stronger TrackWiz ratings in the field. In Race 2, Bourbon Town steps into a maiden special weight sprint and comes in as the 8/5 favorite for good reason — the rating backs up the chalk price. Then in Race 3, we pivot to the turf for 1 3/8 miles of allowance action, where Snipsnippitysnip carries our top rating of 88.54 and looks like the most talented horse in the field at a fair price.

One thread connecting these three: the consistent, firm footing today removes a lot of the question marks around pace and trip luck. Horses who want to run their race without surprises should get that chance. Keep that in mind as you build your early pick sequences.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:13 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Ducat dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this claiming sprint, but What's Her Number is close enough to make this interesting, and the pace scenario over 6 1/2 furlongs on Churchill's main track could shake things up.

win3DucatML 7/2

Ducat (3) is the standout in this field with a stellar 86.35 TrackWiz rating and a career win percentage of 25% — among the highest in today's claiming field. Ricardo Santana Jr. gets the call for Michael Maker, and that rider-trainer combination is one you want on your side at Churchill Downs. The 7/2 morning line feels like fair value for a horse that clearly grades out above the competition.

place7What's Her NumberML 3/1

What's Her Number (7) rates a strong 80.4 and comes in at 3/1 morning line under Francisco Arrieta for trainer Carlos Santamaria. While her career win rate of just 5% raises a flag about converting, the high rating suggests consistent competitive efforts — she's often close without closing it out, which is exactly the profile you want in a place horse. In a pace duel scenario over six and a half furlongs, this is the kind of closer that can pick up the pieces.

show10MamarshaML 8/1

Mamarsha (10) checks in at 71.77 and gives trainer Hutch Holsapple a live runner at 8/1 on the morning line — that's solid overlay territory for a show bet. An 11% career win rate is respectable at this class level, and Luan Machado's aggressive riding style suits a dirt sprint well. If the top two hook each other up front, Mamarsha could be the one stalking into a clean trip and grabbing the bronze.

Race 5

6:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A deep claiming field goes a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt, with Arthur's Court and Storm the Streets separating from the pack in the ratings — but at least four horses in this field have the class and form to grab a piece.

win2Arthur's CourtML 5/1

Arthur's Court (2) leads the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 and lands the services of Tyler Gaffalione for trainer Kinnon LaRose. A 20% career win rate is solid in claiming company, and the 5/1 morning line represents genuine value for a horse rated this highly. The mile-and-a-sixteenth distance over dirt suits a horse that can settle behind the pace and accelerate into the stretch — and Gaffalione is the ideal jockey for that kind of tactical ride.

place1Storm the StreetsML 7/2

Storm the Streets (1) rates 80.43 and draws the rail under Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. for trainer Richard Dutrow — a combination that historically gets horses into position early. The 7/2 morning line reflects legitimate public confidence, and a 13% career win rate shows this horse knows how to find the wire. Rail posts can be tricky over a mile-plus trip, but Hernandez Jr. has the experience to navigate that without burning too much early energy.

show9Yellow BrickML 6/1

Yellow Brick (9) is the value angle in the show slot at 6/1 morning line with a 64.35 TrackWiz rating. Trainer Rick Hiles has this one pointed right, and Rafael Bejarano — a veteran Churchill hand — gives the horse a legitimate chance to run its best race. A 7% career win rate is modest, but at this morning line you're playing for the exotic ticket, and Yellow Brick's rating puts it firmly in the frame for a trifecta slot.

Race 6

7:18 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Rational Theory looks like the class of this starter allowance field on the TrackWiz ratings, but Transatlantic's 100% career win rate is the kind of number that makes you look twice, even at a 6/1 price.

win2Rational TheoryML 5/2

Rational Theory (2) sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at a commanding 87.81 and comes in for the powerful Steven Asmussen barn, with Keith Asmussen aboard — keeping it very much in the family. The 5/2 morning line is justified by the numbers: a 56 average speed figure (tied for best in the field) and the kind of rating gap over the third-place horse that suggests a legitimate edge. In starter allowance company, class advantages tend to hold up, and Rational Theory looks like the class of this field.

place6Our ShenaniganML 7/2

Our Shenanigan (6) rates 82.9 under Joe Sharp — one of the meet's sharper trainers — with Tyler Gaffalione up at 7/2. A career win rate of 22% is excellent for this level, and the 54 average speed figure is consistent. The place slot is actually interesting here because if Rational Theory goes to the front and gets contested early, Our Shenanigan's tactical versatility with Gaffalione could mean a well-timed run up the rail in the stretch.

show3ShanettML 4/1

Shanett (3) may be the most underrated horse on the board in this race — a 72.68 TrackWiz rating, an eye-catching 40% career win rate, and the top average speed figure in the field at 55. Gabriel Saez picks up the mount for trainer S. Jade Cunningham, and 4/1 is a reasonable enough price for a horse showing those win percentages. The career win rate is the stat that jumps off the page — horses who win 40% of their starts don't typically stay quiet at that price for long.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Tamino enters this large claiming field as an overwhelming TrackWiz favorite with the highest rating on today's card, but a 14-horse field over six and a half furlongs creates plenty of pace chaos — making the place and show horses critical to any exotic construction.

win5TaminoML 8/5

Tamino (5) is simply the best horse in this field on the numbers — an 89.12 TrackWiz rating, the highest of any horse across the entire nine-race card today. Ben Curtis gets the mount for Eddie Kenneally, a trainer who places horses with precision in claiming ranks. A 20% career win rate combined with a 54 average speed figure and the 8/5 morning line suggests the public already knows what the data confirms — this is a horse that should be competitive against any field at this level.

place4McIlroyML 8/1

McIlroy (4) rates 75.99 and gives trainer J. Kent Sweezey a strong runner in what shapes up as a pace-heavy field. Gabriel Saez, who has been active at the meet, takes the mount at 8/1 — a price that represents real overlay value for a horse this well-rated. With only a 10% career win rate, McIlroy may be prone to finishing second and third, which makes the place slot a natural fit and the exacta with Tamino an appealing investment.

show10WearebackyoungmanML 9/2

Wearebackyoungman (10) gets the marquee call of Tyler Gaffalione for Michael Maker, and Maker is one of the most dangerous claiming trainers in the country when he targets a specific spot. The 70.15 TrackWiz rating and 16% career win rate show a horse that fires consistently, and the 9/2 morning line is fair. In a 14-horse field, having an elite jockey who can find room and position late could be the difference between second and fourth.

Race 8

8:22 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

This stakes sprint over six furlongs looks like a three-horse affair at the top, with Kapoor's TrackWiz rating and career win percentage separating it from Usha's Baffert-trained star power — making this one of the best betting races on the card.

win5KapoorML 3/1

Kapoor (5) leads all starters in this stakes field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and an extraordinary 66% career win rate — a number that frankly demands your attention. Trainer William Mott is a Hall of Famer who doesn't nominate horses to stakes events without strong form, and Junior Alvarado is a top-tier jockey who excels in sprint situations. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a horse with an elite win rate in a stakes field that, on the numbers, it rates to handle.

place6One Magic PhillyML 6/1

One Magic Philly (6) rates 72.65 with a 35% career win rate — numbers that hold up against any horse in this field except Kapoor and Usha. Trainer Brendan Walsh sends this one out with Tyler Gaffalione, and Walsh's horses consistently run their races. The 6/1 morning line looks like a value overlay for a horse that wins more than a third of its starts; the place bet here is one of the most attractive on the card.

show8Jersey PearlML 10/1

Jersey Pearl (8) rates 72.64 — nearly identical to One Magic Philly — and brings a 37% career win rate that actually tops the field. Francisco Arrieta picks up the mount at 10/1, and trainer Darrin Miller clearly has this one ready. The morning line feels generous for a horse with that win percentage in this kind of company, and the 56 average speed figure matches the best in the race. Show and exotic players should absolutely include Jersey Pearl in trifecta tickets.

Race 9

8:55 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A sprawling 16-horse maiden special weight field on the turf sets up as a wide-open affair, but the top of the TrackWiz ratings is unusually tight — three horses cluster within five points of each other, all pointing to a competitive finish on the lawn.

win10VivaldiML 6/1

Vivaldi (10) tops the ratings at 82.71 and gets the services of Tyler Gaffalione for Chad Brown — and Brown's first-out turf runners are among the most reliably competitive in the sport. The 6/1 morning line is a genuine price for a horse at the top of the ratings trained by arguably the best grass trainer in North America. An average speed figure of 55 is the top mark among horses with recorded figures, and Gaffalione's ability to secure position in a large turf field is a significant tactical edge.

place6LahainalunaML 9/2

Lahainaluna (6) rates 78.11 and comes out of Joe Sharp's barn with Junior Alvarado in the irons — a combination that has been sharp on the grass throughout the Churchill meet. The 9/2 morning line puts this one near the top of public support as well, validating the rating. Alvarado is a crafty turf rider who can place a horse where it needs to be in a 16-horse field, which matters enormously over a mile and a sixteenth on the lawn.

show12ProviderML 6/1

Provider (12) rates 77.28 and draws Ben Curtis for trainer Peter Eurton — Eurton sends horses to Churchill from California with a purpose, and Curtis is an accomplished jockey on any surface. The 6/1 morning line matches Vivaldi's price for a horse just five points behind in the ratings, which suggests real value. In a 16-horse maiden turf field, the show slot can be lucrative, and Provider's rating makes it one of the most legitimate horses in the bottom half of the draw.

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Bottom line: this is a well-rounded Memorial Day card at one of racing's iconic venues. Dontworryboutnothn, Bourbon Town, and Snipsnippitysnip are your free best bets to start. Kapoor in the Race 8 stakes is the marquee play of the afternoon. And if you're hunting value, Vivaldi on the grass and Arthur's Court in the route are the two names our models keep circling. Full breakdowns, pace figures, and exotic ticket strategies are waiting for subscribers — head to /pricing to unlock the complete card. Good luck out there.

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