Daily Picks

Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — May 24, 2026

Sunday, May 24, 202610 racesChurchill Downs

Churchill Downs is getting a proper soaking on Sunday, with rain falling and temps sitting at 71°F — the kind of afternoon where mud-loving closers can steal the show and morning-line favorites get humbled. Ten races are on the card today, stretching from a 5-furlong turf sprint all the way out to a 1⅜-mile grass route, so there's plenty of variety to keep things interesting.

The wet weather is the story of the day. A rain-affected dirt track at Churchill tends to play deep and tiring, which can compress the speed figures (Beyer-style pace-and-finish numbers) across the board and throw open doors for horses that don't mind getting their faces dirty. Meanwhile, the turf races bear watching — if the going gets officially yielding or soft, turf form from European-style conditions becomes a legitimate angle our models account for.

TrackWiz has full coverage across all 10 races, with three free best-bet previews unlocked for every reader and seven premium race analyses available to subscribers. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claimer going six furlongs that's wide open on paper — every horse carries a career win percentage of zero, and the TrackWiz ratings are bunched enough that the top of the order could easily get reshuffled at the break.

win2DodecahedronML 12/1

Dodecahedron is our TrackWiz top-rated horse at 60.24 despite being a generous 12/1 on the morning line — that gap between rating and price is exactly the kind of value angle we hunt for. With an average speed figure of 53, he matches or beats most of this field, and trainer Jerry Antonuik has him ready to fire at a price the public is clearly sleeping on. Gabriel Saez gets the call, and if Dodecahedron breaks alertly from the 2-hole, he could dictate terms in what figures to be a soft pace scenario. In a race where nobody has won before, the TrackWiz model doing the heavy lifting here is justified — take the number while it lasts.

place1Hot GamerML 2/1

Hot Gamer is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 for good reason — a TrackWiz rating of 58.33 and an average speed of 54 make him one of the quicker horses in the field on paper. The Steve Asmussen-Jose Ortiz combination is one of the most powerful in the country, and when that barn sends out a morning-line chalk, you pay attention. Even if he gets outpaced on the front end, the talent level here keeps him firmly in the exotics.

show4SweetbittersML 7/2

Sweetbitters at 7/2 is the third-highest-rated horse in the race at 55.83, and Luis Saez — one of the top riders in the country — clearly liked what he saw in the mornings to take the mount. She brings a speed figure of 52, which is competitive in this spot, and her presence in the show hole of your tickets gives you a live horse at a fair price if the top two battle each other into weakness.

Race 2

5:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Systemic Change looks like the class of this one-mile claimer with a massive TrackWiz rating advantage over the field, but Big City's better raw speed figure sets up a potential pace duel that could make things interesting deep in the stretch.

win7Systemic ChangeML 5/2

Systemic Change is the standout in this field by a wide margin — a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 towers over the competition, and a 40% career win rate tells you this horse knows how to get the job done when it matters. Trainer Michael Maker is a masterful conditioner at a route of ground, and Tyler Gaffalione is the kind of jockey who can rate a horse perfectly over a mile on the Churchill dirt. At 5/2 on the morning line, you're not getting a huge overlay, but the separation in the numbers is significant enough to make him the clear single in your exotics.

place3Big CityML 3/1

Big City has the best average speed figure in the race at 55 and comes in with a respectable 21% career win rate — this is a horse who can fire on any given day. Trainer Tristan Ashford puts Rafael Bejarano up, and if Big City can establish position early and set a pressable pace, he has the raw numbers to hang on for a piece against Systemic Change. At 3/1, he's a solid play underneath.

show6Real MachoML 7/2

Real Macho at 7/2 brings a 21% career win rate and the services of Irad Ortiz Jr. — a combination that always commands respect in a claiming field. His TrackWiz rating of 59.57 puts him third in the field, and if the top two get into each other early on the front end, a patient ride from Ortiz could produce a strong late run for the show dough.

Race 3

5:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A five-furlong turf sprint with two horses clearly separated from the pack in the TrackWiz ratings — Can't Deny It and Let My People Go headline a race where the pace figures to be hot and the turf sprint specialists will be sorting themselves out in the final sixteenth.

win11Can't Deny ItML 5/2

Can't Deny It earns the top TrackWiz rating in the race at 87.81 and backs it up with a field-best average speed figure of 57 and a gaudy 42% career win rate — that's the kind of profile that makes a horse hard to beat even at 5/2. Trainer Larry Rivelli has runners who know how to handle tight turf sprints, and Jareth Loveberry is a savvy grass rider who can find the rail and conserve energy over five furlongs. This is the most comfortable top pick on the card today.

place10Let My People GoML 7/2

Let My People Go is a fascinating place horse — his average speed figure of 58 is actually the best in the entire field, outpacing even our win pick, and at 7/2 with Jose Ortiz riding for Joe Sharp, there's plenty of talent in the connections. The 12% career win rate is a slight concern, but speed figures like those on a turf sprint suggest he's capable of a big effort, and the Sharp barn is sharp on the Churchill grass.

show7Nasty HabitML 8/1

Nasty Habit at 8/1 is the value piece of this trifecta — a 23% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 74.58 give him legitimate credentials, and Peter Miller is one of the premier grass trainers operating today. With a speed figure of 55, he's not the quickest in the field, but Miller horses are notoriously well-spotted, and Emmanuel Esquivel gives him a confident pilot. At that price, he's well worth including in your trifecta coverage.

Our three free races today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — give a nice cross-section of the card. Race 1 is a maiden claimer going 6 furlongs on a potentially sloppy dirt track, and our top pick Dodecahedron at 12/1 on the morning line is exactly the kind of overlooked mudlark angle you want to be on when the heavens open up. Race 2 stretches out to a mile on the dirt, where Systemic Change (5/2 ML) carries a strong TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — that's a number that commands respect at any price. Then Race 3 flips to the turf for 5 furlongs, where Can't Deny It (also 5/2 ML, 87.81 rating) is our pick in what could be an interesting surface situation depending on how the turf is playing by post time.

The connective thread across the free races is pace scenario — with rain potentially softening both surfaces, horses that can settle early and finish strong are the profile to chase. All three free picks fit that mold to varying degrees, and the 12/1 shot in Race 1 represents real overlay value if conditions play to form.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:14 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

This one-mile maiden special weight is a first-time-starter-heavy affair where pedigree and morning workouts do the talking — Quarry leads on the TrackWiz model but Flick and Diamond Eyed Jack make this a competitive three-horse race at the top.

win9QuarryML 7/2

Quarry posts an 83.31 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field — and goes postward at an attractive 7/2 on the morning line with Brian Hernandez Jr. in the irons. Trainer Thomas Drury Jr. has taken his time with this one, and the speed figure of 54 is competitive for a maiden special weight mile on the Churchill dirt. When a horse has this kind of rating gap over a maiden field, our TrackWiz model says trust it.

place4FlickML 9/2

Flick shows a speed figure of 55 — the best in the field — and a TrackWiz rating of 78.28 that slots him solidly second in our hierarchy. Trainer Michael Tomlinson and jockey Axel Concepcion team up at a price of 9/2, which represents fair value for a horse with this kind of underlying speed. If Quarry stumbles out of the gate or gets into pace trouble at the route distance, Flick has every chance to step up and win this.

show7Diamond Eyed JackML 6/1

Diamond Eyed Jack is an intriguing show piece at 6/1 — Brendan Walsh is one of the best maiden conditioners in the game, and Ben Curtis is no stranger to getting Walsh horses home. The TrackWiz rating of 72.12 is legitimate, and while the average speed figure of 52 doesn't jump off the page, Walsh's first-time starters often show more on race day than the workouts suggest. He rounds out your trifecta nicely at a price.

Race 5

6:46 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Nyquistador dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden claiming mile-and-a-sixteenth, but the thin speed figure separation across most of the field means the pace scenario over this longer route could produce a surprise in the bottom half of the tickets.

win5NyquistadorML 5/2

Nyquistador is the standout at 87.81 on the TrackWiz model — the same maximum-tier rating that topped several earlier races — and Tyler Gaffalione, one of the meet's busiest and most successful jockeys, gets the call at 5/2. The average speed figure of 52 is consistent with the field, and trainer Robert Medina clearly likes his chances enough to put the morning-line favorite tag on him. In a maiden claimer going long, a horse with this kind of model separation is your anchor.

place7Don's Last RideML 9/2

Don's Last Ride is an interesting place play at 9/2 — Irad Ortiz Jr. doesn't waste his afternoon on horses without a chance, and Joe Sharp is a dangerous trainer who places his runners thoughtfully. A TrackWiz rating of 54.17 makes him the third-best horse in the field, and at over the fair price of 9/2, he's worth keying underneath Nyquistador in your exactas.

show8Surfin' MML 6/1

Surfin' M at 6/1 carries a 51.77 TrackWiz rating and is statistically one of the more interesting value plays in this maiden field. Trainer Aaron Shorter sends him out with Mario Gutierrez aboard, and while the 52 speed figure doesn't separate him from the pack, his position in the TrackWiz rankings makes him a reasonable trifecta inclusion at a price that won't break your bankroll.

Race 6

7:19 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A sprawling 16-horse maiden special weight field on the turf at a mile-and-a-sixteenth — massive fields on the grass are famously chaotic, but Munnings Talks and a tight cluster of horses just below him give the TrackWiz model a clear top tier to work with.

win1Munnings TalksML 5/2

Munnings Talks earns the maximum TrackWiz rating of 87.81 in this field and goes off at 5/2 under Tyler Gaffalione for the Brendan Walsh barn — a combination that consistently delivers in maiden turf routes. Walsh is elite at placing first-time grass runners, and a speed figure of 54 is right in line with the core of this competitive field. In a 16-horse turf sprint, the 1-hole can be tricky, but Gaffalione has the savvy to navigate traffic and get this horse into position.

place11Core MemoriesML 4/1

Core Memories is our place pick at 4/1 with Jose Ortiz aboard for trainer Cherie DeVaux — a talented combination with a strong turf pedigree. The TrackWiz rating of 74.55 ranks second in the field, and Ortiz's ability to get horses into rhythm on the grass at Churchill is well-documented in our analysis. At the same morning-line price as the show pick, Core Memories offers a bit more model support.

show3DynaML 6/1

Dyna rounds out the exotics at 6/1 with a solid TrackWiz rating of 74.29 — nearly identical to Core Memories and firmly in the second tier of this field. Trainer Kevin Attard ships in with Junior Alvarado up, and Attard's grass runners have a habit of showing up fresh. In a big field like this, having three horses in the top tier of the model is exactly the kind of safety net you need for trifecta tickets.

Race 7

7:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Ruleroftheuniverse has a significant model advantage in this six-and-a-half furlong dirt claimer, but Bird the Legend's eye-catching 50% career win rate means the race could get complicated if the pace opens up and Irad Ortiz Jr. makes a sweeping move.

win3RuleroftheuniverseML 5/2

Ruleroftheuniverse tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and draws the 3-post under Tyler Gaffalione for Saffie Joseph Jr. — one of the most in-form claiming trainers in the country right now. A speed figure of 54 is consistent with the pace demands of a six-and-a-half furlong sprint, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the model says he's priced correctly as the top selection. Gaffalione from a good post in a sprint is a dangerous combination.

place5Rowdy RiotML 7/2

Rowdy Riot brings the best average speed figure in the race at 56 — and that kind of raw speed over six-and-a-half furlongs on dirt is no small thing. With Rafael Bejarano up and a 7/2 morning line, trainer Randy Morse has him positioned for a forward effort, and if he gets to the front early, he'll make Ruleroftheuniverse work to catch him.

show7Muir WoodsML 6/1

Muir Woods at 6/1 carries a 60.80 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate — legitimate numbers in a claiming field like this. Trainer John Alexander Ortiz and jockey Axel Concepcion form a steady local combination, and Muir Woods' speed figure of 54 puts him right in the mix. He's the kind of horse who doesn't win big but consistently earns a check, making him the ideal trifecta anchor for the show position.

Race 8

8:23 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Being Myself comes in as a heavy morning-line favorite in this allowance optional claimer, but Union Mist's higher TrackWiz rating sets up one of the more interesting potential upsets on the card — two very different horses at the top pointing toward a compelling stretch duel.

win4Union MistML 9/2

Union Mist is our TrackWiz top pick at 84.90 despite being the second choice on the morning line at 9/2 — that disconnect between the model and the public is where we find value. Tyler Gaffalione rides for Brendan Walsh, whose allowance horses routinely run to or above their figures, and a speed figure of 53 is level with the rest of the field. A 10% career win rate is lower than we'd like, but the model and connections more than compensate for that number.

place5Being MyselfML 6/5

Being Myself is the 6/5 morning-line chalk for good reason — a 40% career win rate is genuinely elite at this level, and Jose Ortiz piloting a Cherie DeVaux allowance horse is a combination that wins races. The TrackWiz rating of 79.23 is strong, and while we've positioned Union Mist above her in our model, Being Myself is the kind of horse who finds a way to get her nose on the wire. She belongs in every exotic structure today.

show2ForeseenML 5/1

Foreseen at 5/1 offers a sneaky value angle here — the TrackWiz rating of 53.89 puts him clearly third in the field, and trainer George Arnold II keeps runners fit enough to fire in spots like this allowance optional claimer. Axel Concepcion takes the mount and brings solid local experience to the table. With only six horses in the field, show betting is thin, but Foreseen earns his spot in the trifecta as a price play.

Race 9

8:56 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 3/8 mi · Turf

An allowance field going a marathon 1-3/8 miles on the turf — the longest race on the card — where stamina and grass pedigree often matter as much as raw speed, and Write Off Jerry emerges as a compelling value play over a field that includes several intriguing longshot profiles.

win3Write Off JerryML 6/1

Write Off Jerry tops the TrackWiz ratings at 80.99 despite sitting at 6/1 on the morning line — that's one of the bigger value gaps we've seen today. Irad Ortiz Jr. climbs aboard for the Michael Maker barn, and Maker is as good as anyone at stretching horses out to demanding distances on the turf. A speed figure of 54 combined with a 14% career win rate suggests a horse who has been knocking on the door and could break through at a price. At 6/1, this is the single we most want to build our exotics around in Race 9.

place6Different GravyML 12/1

Different Gravy at 12/1 is our place pick, and what a number that is — a 40% career win rate is outstanding, and trainer Eddie Kenneally is one of the sharpest grass conditioners at Churchill Downs. Jareth Loveberry takes the call on a horse whose TrackWiz rating of 73.96 ranks second in the field, and at a distance where class and fitness matter more than speed, a proven winner at 40% deserves serious respect at this price. This is the longshot angle of the card.

show11Ashley's ArcherML 5/1

Ashley's Archer brings a TrackWiz rating of 69.84 and Jose Ortiz in the irons for Mark Casse — a barn that excels in allowance grass routes. The 5/1 morning line is fair, and while a 10% career win rate isn't dazzling, Casse's horses tend to be better than their records suggest, especially around two turns on the turf. In a 13-horse field going a route of ground, Ashley's Archer belongs in your superfectas.

Race 10

9:27 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a six-furlong dirt maiden claimer with 13 runners and a clear top two on the TrackWiz model — Smokin Hot Stuff and With Kindness have a significant ratings edge, but at those prices this could be a productive trifecta race for the patient bettor.

win2Smokin Hot StuffML 4/1

Smokin Hot Stuff posts the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 85.62 and goes postward at an attractive 4/1 under Tyler Gaffalione for trainer Robert Medina — the same barn connection that topped Race 5. An average speed figure of 53 matches the competitive range of this field, and Gaffalione's ability to rate horses in six-furlong sprints is well established. When the model says 85.62 and the morning line says 4/1, you play the horse.

place9With KindnessML 6/1

With Kindness at 6/1 carries the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 75.45 with Luis Saez taking the mount — and Saez doesn't tend to accept rides on horses without realistic chances in maiden fields. A speed figure of 53 is solid for a six-furlong sprint, and trainer Sandino Hernandez Jr. has positioned this filly to fire in the nightcap. She's the value play in your exactas under Smokin Hot Stuff.

show1DiagramML 5/1

Diagram at 5/1 brings a speed figure of 55 — the best in the entire field — and a TrackWiz rating of 72.55 that makes him a legitimate threat in this 13-horse sprint. Brian Hernandez Jr. is one of the top local riders at Churchill and rarely goes to the gate without believing his horse can fire. Trainer Bret Calhoun is a volume conditioner who spots horses expertly in maiden claiming company, and Diagram is the right horse in the right race to round out your trifecta.

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Bottom line: today's rain-soaked Churchill card is one where preparation pays. Dodecahedron is the eyebrow-raiser on the free side — a 12/1 shot in a wet maiden claimer is the kind of value that makes an afternoon. Systemic Change and Can't Deny It are the confidence plays. For the full card — pace projections, exotic tickets, and all seven premium race breakdowns — subscribers have everything they need waiting at /pricing. Good luck out there, and watch that rail.

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