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Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — May 17, 2026

Sunday, May 17, 20269 racesChurchill Downs

Here's our expert breakdown of today's 9-race card at Churchill Downs. We've identified 3 standout races with strong plays — see our analysis below. Full card picks for all 9 races are available to TrackWiz subscribers.

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Race 1

2026-05-17T16:45:00

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Al Amjaad looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win1Al AmjaadML 4/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 85.6 for Race 1. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz, trained by Joe Sharp. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 23% win rate and finished in the money in 50% of races. Claiming Price Decreased from $30000 to $20000.

place6ConsequentialML 3/1

Rating board at 54.5. Ridden by Florent Geroux. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.84 sec/furlong. Claiming Price Decreased from $30000 to $20000.

show3WhateverML 15/1

Rating board at 51.7. Ridden by Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.. Placed in 3 of 5 races on Dirt tracks. Ranked 1st in workouts over last month at 11.95 sec/furlong.

Race 2

2026-05-17T17:14:00

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Bachelor Party looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win6Bachelor PartyML 2/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 88.5 for Race 2. Career win rate of 33% shows consistency. Ridden by Francisco Arrieta, trained by David Fawkes. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.76 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 49% of races. 1 wins and placed in 2 of 4 races on Dirt tracks. Claiming Price Decreased from $40000 to $16000. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.

⚡ Longshot2TrajectML 10/1

Rating board at 31.9 • 25% career wins. Ridden by Edgar Morales. Claiming Price Decreased from $30000 to $16000.

Race 3

2026-05-17T17:43:00

Maiden Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Issachar looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win4IssacharML 8/5

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 59.0 for Race 3. Ridden by Gerardo Corrales, trained by Wesley A. Ward. Ranked 2nd in workouts over last month at 11.87 sec/furlong.

place8Joe Joe DudeML 7/2

Rating board at 55.8. Ridden by Luan Machado. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.41 sec/furlong.

show6CubalibreML 9/2

Rating board at 54.2. Ridden by Keith J. Asmussen.

Our top picks for today focus on races with clear edges in speed figures, trainer form, and track bias. These are the spots where we see the most value on the board.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Clairita looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win1ClairitaML 8/5

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 89.1 for Race 4. Career win rate of 33% shows consistency. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr., trained by Philip A. Bauer. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. 1 wins and placed in 4 of 4 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 4 races. Has placed in 4 of the last 4 races. Has 1 wins and placed in 4 of 4 races at 1 1/16 mi. Ranked 2nd in workouts over last month at 11.96 sec/furlong. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.

place6Market ChillML 5/1

Rating board at 69.8 • 25% career wins. Ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 57% of races. Has placed in the last 2 races.

show3Go to GirlML 15/1

Rating board at 58.8. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. 1 wins and placed in 3 of 6 races on Dirt tracks.

Race 5

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Lucius Verus looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win5Lucius VerusML 5/2

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 87.8 for Race 5. Career win rate of 25% shows consistency. Ridden by Axel Concepcion, trained by Aaron M. West. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.43 sec/furlong. Jockey & Horse combo has a 14% win rate and finished in the money in 45% of races. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.

⚡ Longshot2A Cab On the RocksML 12/1

Rating board at 64.0. Ridden by Jaime A. Torres. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.57 sec/furlong. Horse won last time it raced. 03/12/2026.

Race 6

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Goats On a Tree looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win8Goats On a TreeML 6/5

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 80.4 for Race 6. Career win rate of 31% shows consistency. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr., trained by Michael J. Maker. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. Has placed in 4 of the last 6 races. Has 2 wins and placed in 4 of 6 races at 1 1/16 mi.

place1GoodbetterbestML 8/1

Rating board at 79.8 • 26% career wins. Ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 11.84 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 57% of races.

show4TakemetothebeachML 9/2

Rating board at 70.9 • 22% career wins. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 23% win rate and finished in the money in 50% of races.

Race 7

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Puteketeke looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win5PuteketekeML 8/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 79.8 for Race 7. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz, trained by Michael J. Maker. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.12 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. Placed in 3 of 3 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 3 races. Has placed in 3 of the last 3 races. Has placed in 3 of 3 races at 6 fur.

place6Great MomentML 6/1

Rating board at 66.1. Ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 57% of races. Placed in 3 of 6 races on Dirt tracks.

show9Deep FlameML 8/5

Rating board at 59.0. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 11.92 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races.

Race 8

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Beauty Reigns looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win10Beauty ReignsML 4/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 85.6 for Race 8. Career win rate of 22% shows consistency. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr., trained by William I. Mott. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 11.88 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. 2 wins and placed in 7 of 10 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in 4 of the last 5 races. Has 2 wins and placed in 7 of 8 of Sprint races.

place2Me and Molly McGeeML 5/2

Rating board at 84.8 • 50% career wins. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. 2 wins and placed in 4 of 5 races on Dirt tracks.

show8Blue FireML 3/1

Rating board at 77.2 • 50% career wins. Ridden by Florent Geroux. 6 wins and placed in 10 of 13 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in 4 of the last 6 races.

Race 9

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Schwarzenegger looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win7SchwarzeneggerML 8/5

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 87.6 for Race 9. Career win rate of 33% shows consistency. Ridden by John R. Velazquez, trained by Wesley A. Ward. For past year, Jockey has a 20% win rate and finished in the money in 47% of races. Has 1 wins and placed in 2 of 3 races at 5 1/2 fur. Jockey & Horse combo has a 20% win rate and finished in the money in 47% of races. Ranked 4th in workouts over last month at 12.12 sec/furlong. 1 wins and placed in 2 of 4 races on Turf tracks. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.

place6Double TalkerML 6/1

Rating board at 76.5 • 50% career wins. Ridden by Gerardo Corrales. Has placed in the last 3 races. Has placed in 1 of the last 1 races.

show12Military CruiserML 4/1

Rating board at 73.3. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. Has placed in 4 of the last 6 races.

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