Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — May 21, 2026
Here's our expert breakdown of today's 8-race card at Churchill Downs. We've identified 3 standout races with strong plays — see our analysis below. Full card picks for all 8 races are available to TrackWiz subscribers.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt
Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Go New York Go looks standout with daylight to the rest.
Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 56.7 for Race 1. Ridden by Jareth Loveberry, trained by Larry Rivelli. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 11.73 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 17% win rate and finished in the money in 51% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 24% win rate and finished in the money in 70% of races. Has placed in 1 of the last 1 races.
Race 2
Starter Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt
Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Sassy Princess looks standout with daylight to the rest.
Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 89.4 for Race 2. Career win rate of 27% shows consistency. Ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, trained by David Jacobson. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 56% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 31% win rate and finished in the money in 66% of races. 4 wins and placed in 7 of 10 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 2 races. Has placed in 4 of the last 6 races. Has 1 wins and placed in 3 of 3 of Sprint races. Jockey & Horse combo has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 56% of races. Has WON 2 races in a row! Horse won last time it raced. 05/08/2026. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.
Rating board at 33.2. Ridden by Ramon A. Vazquez. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 55% of races. 5 wins and placed in 13 of 25 races on Dirt tracks.
Race 3
Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf
Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Hazy Horizon looks standout with daylight to the rest.
Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 48.3 for Race 3. Ridden by Alex Achard, trained by Israel Acevedo. Has placed in 1 of the last 1 races.
Our top picks for today focus on races with clear edges in speed figures, trainer form, and track bias. These are the spots where we see the most value on the board.
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Good luck at Churchill Downs today! Remember to check back for live odds updates and follow us for real-time picks throughout the card. Subscribe to TrackWiz for full access to every race at every track.