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Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — May 16, 2026

Saturday, May 16, 202610 racesChurchill Downs

Here's our expert breakdown of today's 10-race card at Churchill Downs. We've identified 3 standout races with strong plays — see our analysis below. Full card picks for all 10 races are available to TrackWiz subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

2026-05-16T22:00:00

Allowance · 5 fur · Turf

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — She Wants War looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win2She Wants WarML 7/2

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 86.3 for Race 1. Ridden by Florent Geroux, trained by Wesley A. Ward. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 11.51 sec/furlong. Has placed in the last 2 races. Has placed in 2 of the last 3 races. Has 1 wins and placed in 3 of 4 of Sprint races. 1 wins and placed in 2 of 3 races on Turf tracks. Horse won last time it raced. 04/17/2026.

place4Should'veML 5/2

Rating board at 68.6 • 33% career wins. Ridden by Gerardo Corrales. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 11.67 sec/furlong. 1 wins and placed in 2 of 4 races on Turf tracks.

show10Something StrongerML 12/1

Rating board at 61.2. Ridden by Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.. Has placed in the last 2 races. Has 1 wins and placed in 3 of 4 of Sprint races.

Race 2

2026-05-16T22:28:00

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Winning Matters looks standout with daylight to the rest.

⚡ Longshot3PoiseML 8/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 48.3 for Race 2. Ridden by Johan Rosado, trained by Steven M. Asmussen. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.33 sec/furlong. Has placed in 1 of the last 1 races.

Race 3

2026-05-16T22:56:00

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Wits and Wagers looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win5Wits and WagersML 7/2

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 86.3 for Race 3. Ridden by Ben Curtis, trained by Sandino R. Hernandez, Jr.. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.70 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 18% win rate and finished in the money in 48% of races. 2 wins and placed in 14 of 26 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 2 races. Has placed in 5 of the last 6 races. 1 wins and placed in 8 of 12 races at Churchill Downs. Ranked 1st in workouts over last month at 12.08 sec/furlong.

place6CouldyoubelovedML 8/5

Rating board at 76.4 • 22% career wins. Ridden by Gabriel Saez. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.54 sec/furlong. 2 wins and placed in 4 of 7 races on Dirt tracks.

⚡ Longshot1FourfiftysevenML 12/1

Rating board at 29.4. Ridden by Mario Gutierrez.

Our top picks for today focus on races with clear edges in speed figures, trainer form, and track bias. These are the spots where we see the most value on the board.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Chambersville looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win7ChambersvilleML 5/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 77.1 for Race 4. Ridden by Emmanuel Esquivel, trained by Kenneth G. McPeek. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 21% win rate and finished in the money in 56% of races. Has placed in the last 2 races. Has placed in 4 of the last 6 races. Has placed in 2 of 3 races at 1 1/16 mi. Ranked 1st in workouts over last month at 11.65 sec/furlong. 1 wins and placed in 3 of 4 races on Turf tracks.

place10DoctrineML 6/1

Rating board at 71.0 • 50% career wins. Ridden by Cristian A. Torres. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 11.97 sec/furlong. Has placed in 2 of the last 3 races.

show8Patrol Squad SixML 6/1

Rating board at 64.5. Ridden by Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.. Has placed in 4 of the last 6 races. Has 1 wins and placed in 4 of 6 of Medium Distance races.

Race 5

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Shadow Coast looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win4Shadow CoastML 4/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 85.6 for Race 5. Ridden by Ben Curtis, trained by Rohan G. Crichton. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.00 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 18% win rate and finished in the money in 48% of races. Has placed in the last 2 races. Ranked 1st in workouts over last month at 11.80 sec/furlong. More than 1 win on today's surface/distance. Horse won last time it raced. 04/25/2026. Horse won last time raced at today's surface/distance.

place3Cool CowboyML 3/1

Rating board at 84.4 • 25% career wins. Ridden by Jaime A. Torres. 2 wins and placed in 6 of 9 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 3 races.

show1SliderML 6/1

Rating board at 62.1. Ridden by Axel Concepcion. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 11.98 sec/furlong. 1 wins and placed in 6 of 9 races on Dirt tracks.

Race 6

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — She's Lookin Lucky looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win1She's Lookin LuckyML 5/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 80.2 for Race 6. Ridden by Francisco Arrieta, trained by Matt A. Shirer. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 11.94 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 49% of races. Placed in 4 of 6 races at Churchill Downs. 1 wins and placed in 9 of 11 races on Turf tracks.

place12Smiling EllieML 6/1

Rating board at 73.0 • 26% career wins. Ridden by Cristian A. Torres. Has placed in the last 2 races. Has placed in 3 of the last 5 races.

show5Paynt Ya LaterML 15/1

Rating board at 69.6 • 44% career wins. Ridden by Summer Pauly. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 11.56 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 23% win rate and finished in the money in 69% of races.

Race 7

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Pelican Bay looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win3Pelican BayML 4/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 83.0 for Race 7. Ridden by Irving Moncada, trained by Thomas Drury, Jr.. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.68 sec/furlong.

place1Paul's RecoveryML 3/1

Rating board at 56.7. Ridden by Emmanuel Esquivel. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.86 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 21% win rate and finished in the money in 56% of races.

show7Champagne LiberalML 9/2

Rating board at 54.2. Ridden by Abel Cedillo. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.60 sec/furlong.

Race 8

Stakes · 1 1/2 mi · Turf

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Burnham Square looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win3Burnham SquareML 2/5

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 86.8 for Race 8. Career win rate of 27% shows consistency. Ridden by Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr., trained by Ian R. Wilkes. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.24 sec/furlong. Has placed in the last 3 races. Has placed in 4 of the last 5 races. Has 4 wins and placed in 8 of 11 of Medium Distance races. Placed in 2 of 3 races at Churchill Downs. Jockey & Horse combo has a 16% win rate and finished in the money in 45% of races. Ranked 2nd in workouts over last month at 12.23 sec/furlong. 1 wins and placed in 3 of 3 races on Turf tracks. Horse won last time it raced. 04/18/2026. Horse won last time raced at today's surface/distance.

⚡ Longshot5Dancin in Da'nileML 12/1

Rating board at 38.1. Ridden by Florent Geroux. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.43 sec/furlong. Has not raced in 195 days, may just be looking for a race to tighten up.

Race 9

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Kalahari Dreams looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win3Kalahari DreamsML 5/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 81.8 for Race 9. Ridden by Danny Sheehy, trained by Philip A. Bauer. 2 wins and placed in 10 of 14 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 5 races. Has placed in 5 of the last 6 races. 1 wins and placed in 6 of 6 races at Churchill Downs. Ranked 5th in workouts over last month at 12.15 sec/furlong.

place2Two Eagles RiverML 6/1

Rating board at 77.0 • 23% career wins. Ridden by Emmanuel Esquivel. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 11.95 sec/furlong. 6 wins and placed in 16 of 26 races on Dirt tracks.

⚡ Longshot5Track PhantomML 8/1

Rating board at 61.8 • 22% career wins. Ridden by Florent Geroux. 4 wins and placed in 10 of 18 races on Dirt tracks. 1 wins and placed in 5 of 6 races at Churchill Downs.

Race 10

Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — McAfee looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win9McAfeeML 7/5

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 89.4 for Race 10. Ridden by Gabriel Saez, trained by George Weaver. 1 wins and placed in 5 of 8 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in 2 of the last 3 races. 1 wins and placed in 2 of 2 races at Churchill Downs. Has not raced in 266 days, may just be looking for a race to tighten up. Ranked 2nd in workouts over last month at 11.90 sec/furlong. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.

place1Bourbon FlightML 6/1

Rating board at 82.5. Ridden by Cristian A. Torres. Has placed in the last 3 races. Has placed in 3 of the last 4 races.

show8Big GainML 3/1

Rating board at 68.8. Ridden by Julien R. Leparoux. 3 wins and placed in 12 of 19 races on Dirt tracks.

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