Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — May 14, 2026
Here's our expert breakdown of today's 8-race card at Churchill Downs. We've identified 3 standout races with strong plays — see our analysis below. Full card picks for all 8 races are available to TrackWiz subscribers.
Best Bets
Race 1
2026-05-14T21:00:00Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt
Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Cardio Cat looks standout with daylight to the rest.
Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 59.3 for Race 1. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr., trained by Steven M. Asmussen. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 11.56 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. Has placed in 1 of the last 1 races. Ranked 2nd in workouts over last month at 11.67 sec/furlong. Jockey appears in today's Top 50 Jockeys List.
Rating board at 55.8. Ridden by Emmanuel Esquivel. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 21% win rate and finished in the money in 56% of races. Ranked 1st in workouts over last month at 11.67 sec/furlong.
Rating board at 54.2. Ridden by Assael Espinoza. Ranked 3rd in workouts over last month at 11.80 sec/furlong.
Race 2
2026-05-14T21:29:00Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt
Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Martini Blu looks standout with daylight to the rest.
Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 85.6 for Race 2. Ridden by Rafael Bejarano, trained by Ron Moquett. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.13 sec/furlong. 5 wins and placed in 17 of 31 races on Dirt tracks.
Rating board at 73.7. Ridden by Corey J. Lanerie. Jockey & Horse combo has a 12% win rate and finished in the money in 45% of races. Claiming Price Decreased from $16000 to $12500.
Rating board at 71.5. Ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 57% of races. Claiming Price Decreased from $16000 to $12500.
Race 3
2026-05-14T21:58:00Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Beira looks standout with daylight to the rest.
Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 84.2 for Race 3. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz, trained by Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. 2 wins and placed in 11 of 16 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 2 races. Has placed in 4 of the last 5 races. Has 2 wins and placed in 5 of 7 races at 1 mi. Ranked 2nd in workouts over last month at 11.88 sec/furlong. More than 1 win on today's surface/distance. Jockey appears in today's Top 50 Jockeys List.
Our top picks for today focus on races with clear edges in speed figures, trainer form, and track bias. These are the spots where we see the most value on the board.
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Good luck at Churchill Downs today! Remember to check back for live odds updates and follow us for real-time picks throughout the card. Subscribe to TrackWiz for full access to every race at every track.