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Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — May 1, 2026

Friday, May 1, 202613 racesChurchill Downs

Here's our expert breakdown of today's 13-race card at Churchill Downs. We've identified 3 standout races with strong plays — see our analysis below. Full card picks for all 13 races are available to TrackWiz subscribers.

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Race 1

2026-05-01T16:30:58

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Phantom Blue looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win1Phantom BlueML 4/5

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 60.0 for Race 1. Ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, trained by Brendan P. Walsh. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.01 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 57% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 24% win rate and finished in the money in 58% of races. Has placed in 1 of the last 1 races. Ranked 1st in workouts over last month at 11.55 sec/furlong.

place6Soaring HighML 7/2

Rating board at 55.8. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.63 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races.

show7EpisistML 4/1

Rating board at 53.2. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 31% win rate and finished in the money in 64% of races.

Race 2

2026-05-01T17:02:20

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Quantum Burst looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win5Quantum BurstML 6/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 82.7 for Race 2. Career win rate of 28% shows consistency. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz, trained by Eddie Kenneally. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.23 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. 2 wins and placed in 7 of 8 races on Dirt tracks. Has 1 wins and placed in 3 of 3 races at 1 mi. 1 wins and placed in 2 of 2 races at Churchill Downs. Ranked 1st in workouts over last month at 11.70 sec/furlong.

place3ChopsticksML 9/2

Rating board at 82.2 • 100% career wins. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.18 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races.

show9Five a SideML 3/1

Rating board at 73.8. Ridden by Flavien Prat. For past year, Jockey has a 29% win rate and finished in the money in 68% of races. 2 wins and placed in 7 of 12 races on Dirt tracks.

Race 3

2026-05-01T17:31:07

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Star Actress looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win10Star ActressML 4/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 85.6 for Race 3. Career win rate of 50% shows consistency. Ridden by Junior Alvarado, trained by William I. Mott. For past year, Jockey has a 18% win rate and finished in the money in 49% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 61% of races. 1 wins and placed in 3 of 3 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 3 races. Has placed in 3 of the last 3 races. Jockey & Horse combo has a 18% win rate and finished in the money in 49% of races.

⚡ Longshot11Feisty Red HeadML 20/1

Rating board at 57.8. Ridden by Mike E. Smith. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.11 sec/furlong. 1 wins and placed in 3 of 3 races on Dirt tracks.

Our top picks for today focus on races with clear edges in speed figures, trainer form, and track bias. These are the spots where we see the most value on the board.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Hedge Book looks standout with daylight to the rest.

⚡ Longshot13TramuntanaML 8/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 48.3 for Race 4. Ridden by Luis Saez, trained by Eddie Kenneally. Has not raced in 197 days, may just be looking for a race to tighten up.

Race 5

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Prepped looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win10PreppedML 3/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 87.1 for Race 5. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz, trained by Cherie DeVaux. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 55% of races. Has placed in the last 3 races. Has placed in 3 of the last 4 races. Has placed in 3 of 4 at Medium Distance races. Ranked 3rd in workouts over last month at 12.00 sec/furlong. Placed in 3 of 4 races on Turf tracks.

place6ExecutiveML 4/1

Rating board at 78.1. Ridden by Junior Alvarado. For past year, Jockey has a 18% win rate and finished in the money in 49% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 61% of races.

show8War and MajestyML 8/1

Rating board at 70.9. Ridden by John R. Velazquez. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.24 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 20% win rate and finished in the money in 49% of races.

Race 6

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Paige Turner looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win5Paige TurnerML 4/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 85.6 for Race 6. Career win rate of 50% shows consistency. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz, trained by Cherie DeVaux. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.01 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 55% of races. 1 wins and placed in 3 of 3 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 3 races. Has placed in 3 of the last 3 races. Has 1 wins and placed in 3 of 3 of Sprint races. 1 wins and placed in 2 of 2 races at Churchill Downs. Has not raced in 152 days, may just be looking for a race to tighten up. Ranked 3rd in workouts over last month at 11.90 sec/furlong.

Race 7

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Shisospicy looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win6ShisospicyML 9/5

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 88.8 for Race 7. Career win rate of 71% shows consistency. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr., trained by Jose Francisco D'Angelo. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 11.26 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. Has placed in the last 8 races. Has placed in 3 of the last 3 races. Has 6 wins and placed in 8 of 8 of Sprint races. 1 wins and placed in 2 of 2 races at Churchill Downs. Jockey & Horse combo has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. Has not raced in 181 days, may just be looking for a race to tighten up. Ranked 1st in workouts over last month at 11.68 sec/furlong. 5 wins and placed in 5 of 5 races on Turf tracks. Has WON 5 races in a row! More than 1 win on today's surface/distance. Horse won last time it raced. 11/01/2025. Horse won last time raced at today's surface/distance. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.

⚡ Longshot3Time to DazzleML 15/1

Rating board at 30.8 • 28% career wins. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 11.37 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races.

Race 8

Stakes · 7 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — On Time Girl looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win9On Time GirlML 5/2

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 87.8 for Race 8. Career win rate of 80% shows consistency. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr., trained by Brad H. Cox. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 32% win rate and finished in the money in 71% of races. 4 wins and placed in 6 of 6 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 6 races. Has placed in 6 of the last 6 races. Has 4 wins and placed in 5 of 5 of Sprint races. 2 wins and placed in 2 of 2 races at Churchill Downs. Jockey & Horse combo has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. Ranked 3rd in workouts over last month at 11.90 sec/furlong. Horse won last time raced at today's surface/distance. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.

place8GoodallML 3/1

Rating board at 78.8 • 50% career wins. Ridden by Flavien Prat. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 11.72 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 29% win rate and finished in the money in 68% of races.

⚡ Longshot4ParadiseML 15/1

Rating board at 43.0 • 66% career wins. Ridden by John R. Velazquez. For past year, Jockey has a 20% win rate and finished in the money in 49% of races. 2 wins and placed in 4 of 4 races on Dirt tracks.

Race 9

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Grande looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win3GrandeML 8/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 79.8 for Race 9. Career win rate of 75% shows consistency. Ridden by John R. Velazquez, trained by Todd A. Pletcher. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.19 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 20% win rate and finished in the money in 49% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 23% win rate and finished in the money in 50% of races. 4 wins and placed in 5 of 5 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 5 races. Has placed in 2 of the last 2 races. Has 4 wins and placed in 5 of 5 of Medium Distance races. Jockey & Horse combo has a 20% win rate and finished in the money in 49% of races. Has WON 2 races in a row! Horse won last time it raced. 03/28/2026. Horse won last time raced at today's surface/distance.

place2BaezaML 5/2

Rating board at 74.2 • 28% career wins. Ridden by Junior Alvarado. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.29 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 18% win rate and finished in the money in 49% of races.

show6Nu What's NewML 8/1

Rating board at 67.2 • 28% career wins. Ridden by Luis Saez. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.16 sec/furlong. 3 wins and placed in 7 of 8 races on Dirt tracks.

Race 10

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Proctor Street looks standout with daylight to the rest.

⚡ Longshot4Stylish SueML 20/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 39.3 for Race 10. Career win rate of 30% shows consistency. Ridden by Jaime A. Torres, trained by Joe Sharp. 2 wins and placed in 3 of 4 races at Churchill Downs. Jockey & Horse combo has a 13% win rate and finished in the money in 39% of races. Ranked 2nd in workouts over last month at 12.04 sec/furlong. 4 wins and placed in 6 of 10 races on Turf tracks. Horse won last time it raced. 03/21/2026.

Race 11

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Fully Subscribed looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win9Fully SubscribedML 7/2

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 86.3 for Race 11. Career win rate of 50% shows consistency. Ridden by Flavien Prat, trained by Chad C. Brown. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.18 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 29% win rate and finished in the money in 68% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 31% win rate and finished in the money in 75% of races. 3 wins and placed in 5 of 5 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 5 races. Has placed in 4 of the last 4 races. Has 2 wins and placed in 4 of 4 of Medium Distance races. Has not raced in 145 days, may just be looking for a race to tighten up. Has WON 2 races in a row! Horse won last time it raced. 12/07/2025. Jockey appears in today's Top 50 Jockeys List.

place1Bless the BrokenML 9/2

Rating board at 82.0 • 30% career wins. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 32% win rate and finished in the money in 71% of races.

show5Shred the GnarML 3/1

Rating board at 74.0 • 75% career wins. Ridden by Luis Saez. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.23 sec/furlong. 3 wins and placed in 4 of 5 races on Dirt tracks.

Race 12

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Lion Lake looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win8Lion LakeML 8/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 79.8 for Race 12. Career win rate of 40% shows consistency. Ridden by John R. Velazquez, trained by Brendan P. Walsh. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 11.85 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 20% win rate and finished in the money in 49% of races. Has placed in the last 5 races. Has placed in 5 of the last 6 races. Has 1 wins and placed in 3 of 4 of Medium Distance races. 2 wins and placed in 5 of 6 races on Turf tracks.

place3ImaginationtheladyML 4/1

Rating board at 73.4 • 66% career wins. Ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 57% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 24% win rate and finished in the money in 58% of races.

⚡ Longshot6Tam TamML 15/1

Rating board at 66.5 • 25% career wins. Ridden by Junior Alvarado. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 11.77 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 18% win rate and finished in the money in 49% of races.

Race 13

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Explora looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win1ExploraML 6/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 81.7 for Race 13. Career win rate of 50% shows consistency. Ridden by Flavien Prat, trained by Bob Baffert. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.16 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 29% win rate and finished in the money in 68% of races. 4 wins and placed in 7 of 7 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 7 races. Has placed in 6 of the last 6 races. Has 2 wins and placed in 4 of 4 of Medium Distance races. Ranked 2nd in workouts over last month at 11.76 sec/furlong. Horse won last time it raced. 03/01/2026. Jockey appears in today's Top 50 Jockeys List.

place2ZanyML 4/1

Rating board at 80.7 • 100% career wins. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 64% of races.

show5MeaningML 5/1

Rating board at 79.3 • 66% career wins. Ridden by Juan J. Hernandez. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.16 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 29% win rate and finished in the money in 68% of races.

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