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Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — April 30, 2026

Thursday, April 30, 202612 racesChurchill Downs

Here's our expert breakdown of today's 12-race card at Churchill Downs. We've identified 3 standout races with strong plays — see our analysis below. Full card picks for all 12 races are available to TrackWiz subscribers.

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Race 1

2026-04-30T16:45:00

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — You Ain't Poppn looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win6You Ain't PoppnML 7/2

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 86.3 for Race 1. Career win rate of 28% shows consistency. Ridden by Micah J. Husbands, trained by Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.23 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 21% win rate and finished in the money in 56% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 29% win rate and finished in the money in 64% of races. 2 wins and placed in 5 of 7 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 3 races. Has placed in 3 of the last 3 races. Has 2 wins and placed in 3 of 4 of Sprint races. 1 wins and placed in 3 of 3 races at Churchill Downs. Jockey & Horse combo has a 21% win rate and finished in the money in 56% of races. More than 1 win on today's surface/distance. Horse won last time raced at today's surface/distance. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.

place1Banned for LifeML 8/5

Rating board at 71.2. Ridden by Luis Saez. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 11.87 sec/furlong. 2 wins and placed in 8 of 13 races on Dirt tracks.

⚡ Longshot5Keep On MovingML 8/1

Rating board at 40.8. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. Jockey appears in today's Top 50 Jockeys List.

Race 2

2026-04-30T17:15:00

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Shared Vision looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win5Shared VisionML 3/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 73.8 for Race 2. Career win rate of 50% shows consistency. Ridden by Edgar Morales, trained by George R. Arnold II. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.15 sec/furlong. 1 wins and placed in 2 of 3 races on Dirt tracks. Has 1 wins and placed in 2 of 3 of Sprint races. 1 wins and placed in 2 of 2 races at Churchill Downs. Has not raced in 222 days, may just be looking for a race to tighten up.

place2She'z the LawML 15/1

Rating board at 26.3. Ridden by Luis Saez. Ranked 1st in workouts over last month at 11.75 sec/furlong.

show3CotillardML 20/1

Rating board at 17.3. Ridden by J.J. Meza.

Race 3

2026-04-30T17:45:00

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — My Secret Dreams looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win3My Secret DreamsML 10/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 63.4 for Race 3. Ridden by Edgar Morales, trained by Genaro Garcia. Placed in 5 of 9 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in 4 of the last 6 races. Placed in 2 of 2 races at Churchill Downs. Has placed in 5 of 7 races at 1 mi. Claiming Price Decreased from $50000 to $30000.

place5SpottedML 7/2

Rating board at 55.8. Ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.52 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 20% win rate and finished in the money in 57% of races.

show6KopianaML 4/1

Rating board at 55.0. Ridden by Luis Saez.

Our top picks for today focus on races with clear edges in speed figures, trainer form, and track bias. These are the spots where we see the most value on the board.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Lexico looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win4LexicoML 6/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 67.2 for Race 4. Ridden by Julien R. Leparoux, trained by Donald J. Habeeb. Ranked 4th in workouts over last month at 12.00 sec/furlong.

place11PlotML 7/2

Rating board at 65.7. Ridden by Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.. Ranked 1st in workouts over last month at 11.75 sec/furlong.

show12Breaking HeartsML 5/1

Rating board at 64.1. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 55% of races.

Race 5

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Cliffs of Dover looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win4Cliffs of DoverML 9/2

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 84.9 for Race 5. Ridden by James Graham, trained by Destin G. Heath. Claiming Price Decreased from $16000 to $12500.

place3JinxziML 6/1

Rating board at 79.8. Ridden by Victor R. Carrasco. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.94 sec/furlong. Ranked 3rd in workouts over last month at 12.12 sec/furlong.

show12TregetourML 6/1

Rating board at 58.3. Ridden by Luan Machado. Claiming Price Decreased from $30000 to $12500.

Race 6

Stakes · 1 1/4 mi · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — RB BADONKADONK looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win6RB BADONKADONKML 6/5

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 89.7 for Race 6. Career win rate of 57% shows consistency. Ridden by Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez, trained by Jerenesto Torrez. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 13.39 sec/furlong. 3 wins and placed in 6 of 6 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 8 races. Has placed in 6 of the last 6 races. Has 2 wins and placed in 3 of 3 of Medium Distance races. Jockey & Horse combo has a 15% win rate and finished in the money in 41% of races. Has WON 3 races in a row! Horse won last time it raced. 03/28/2026. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.

Race 7

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Honfleur looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win1HonfleurML 9/5

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 88.8 for Race 7. Ridden by Flavien Prat, trained by Chad C. Brown. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 11.98 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 29% win rate and finished in the money in 67% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 31% win rate and finished in the money in 75% of races. Has placed in the last 2 races. Has placed in 3 of the last 4 races. Has placed in 2 of 3 at Medium Distance races. Ranked 4th in workouts over last month at 12.00 sec/furlong. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List. Jockey appears in today's Top 50 Jockeys List.

place7Vow to ResiliencyML 6/1

Rating board at 61.3. Ridden by Joel Rosario. For past year, Jockey has a 17% win rate and finished in the money in 49% of races. Has placed in the last 2 races.

show4Cape SounionML 3/1

Rating board at 56.7. Ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. For past year, Jockey has a 20% win rate and finished in the money in 57% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 24% win rate and finished in the money in 59% of races.

Race 8

Starter Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Our Shenanigan looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win2Our ShenaniganML 3/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 87.1 for Race 8. Ridden by Flavien Prat, trained by Amelia J. Green. For past year, Jockey has a 29% win rate and finished in the money in 67% of races. 2 wins and placed in 5 of 7 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 3 races. Has placed in 3 of the last 3 races. Has 2 wins and placed in 6 of 7 of Sprint races. Ranked 2nd in workouts over last month at 11.80 sec/furlong. Has WON 2 races in a row! Horse won last time it raced. 03/26/2026. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List. Jockey appears in today's Top 50 Jockeys List.

place6JenscoML 9/5

Rating board at 79.9. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.44 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races.

show1Angel BellaML 5/2

Rating board at 74.6 • 50% career wins. Ridden by Luan Machado. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.24 sec/furlong. Has placed in the last 2 races.

Race 9

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Lagynos looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win8LagynosML 8/5

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 89.1 for Race 9. Career win rate of 25% shows consistency. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz, trained by Steven M. Asmussen. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 11.96 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 30% win rate and finished in the money in 63% of races. Has placed in the last 6 races. Has placed in 6 of the last 6 races. 2 wins and placed in 9 of 10 races at Churchill Downs. Jockey & Horse combo has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. 5 wins and placed in 15 of 19 races on Turf tracks. Has WON 2 races in a row! Horse won last time it raced. 03/21/2026. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List. Jockey appears in today's Top 50 Jockeys List.

place4QuatrocentoML 3/1

Rating board at 65.6 • 40% career wins. Ridden by Julien R. Leparoux. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 11.85 sec/furlong. Has placed in the last 2 races.

show9West HollywoodML 8/1

Rating board at 64.6 • 50% career wins. Ridden by Flavien Prat. For past year, Jockey has a 29% win rate and finished in the money in 67% of races. Has placed in 1 of the last 1 races.

Race 10

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Maximum Bourbon looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win9Maximum BourbonML 9/2

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 84.9 for Race 10. Career win rate of 75% shows consistency. Ridden by Flavien Prat, trained by Philip D'Amato. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 11.72 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 29% win rate and finished in the money in 67% of races. 3 wins and placed in 4 of 5 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 3 races. Has placed in 4 of the last 5 races. Has 3 wins and placed in 4 of 5 races at 6 fur. Ranked 3rd in workouts over last month at 11.87 sec/furlong. More than 1 win on today's surface/distance. Jockey appears in today's Top 50 Jockeys List.

place1Concrete GloryML 8/1

Rating board at 66.4 • 43% career wins. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 24% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races.

show2BuiltML 3/1

Rating board at 54.8 • 33% career wins. Ridden by Jareth Loveberry. For past year, Jockey has a 17% win rate and finished in the money in 52% of races. 4 wins and placed in 7 of 9 races on Dirt tracks.

Race 11

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Slay the Day looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win8Slay the DayML 3/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 87.1 for Race 11. Career win rate of 50% shows consistency. Ridden by John R. Velazquez, trained by Brian A. Lynch. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 11.11 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 20% win rate and finished in the money in 49% of races. Has placed in the last 4 races. Has placed in 4 of the last 5 races. Has 3 wins and placed in 4 of 5 of Sprint races. Jockey & Horse combo has a 20% win rate and finished in the money in 49% of races. Ranked 2nd in workouts over last month at 11.95 sec/furlong. Has WON 2 races in a row! Horse won last time it raced. 04/10/2026. Horse won last time raced at today's surface/distance. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.

place5Cy FairML 5/2

Rating board at 68.2 • 75% career wins. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. Has placed in the last 5 races.

show6Hen PartyML 9/2

Rating board at 57.0 • 33% career wins. Ridden by Flavien Prat. For past year, Jockey has a 29% win rate and finished in the money in 67% of races. Has placed in the last 2 races.

Race 12

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Mizzou looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win7MizzouML 3/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 68.2 for Race 12. Ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, trained by George Weaver. For past year, Jockey has a 20% win rate and finished in the money in 57% of races. Ranked 3rd in workouts over last month at 11.90 sec/furlong.

⚡ Longshot12Boss' DeedML 20/1

Rating board at 56.8. Ridden by Danny Sheehy. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.50 sec/furlong. Placed in 4 of 6 races on Dirt tracks.

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