Daily Picks

Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — May 7, 2026

Thursday, May 7, 20268 racesChurchill Downs

Here's our expert breakdown of today's 8-race card at Churchill Downs. We've identified 3 standout races with strong plays — see our analysis below. Full card picks for all 8 races are available to TrackWiz subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

2026-05-07T21:00:00

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Mula looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win7MulaML 2/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 88.5 for Race 1. Ridden by Gabriel Saez, trained by Carlos Santamaria. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.64 sec/furlong. Placed in 5 of 7 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in 4 of 6 at Medium Distance races. Claiming Price Decreased from $45000 to $30000. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.

place2Go for RocketML 3/1

Rating board at 77.8. Ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.27 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 56% of races.

show6Pampered PrinceML 4/1

Rating board at 55.0. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.48 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races.

Race 2

2026-05-07T21:29:00

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — My Noble Knight looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win1My Noble KnightML 3/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 87.1 for Race 2. Career win rate of 25% shows consistency. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz, trained by Kinnon LaRose. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.66 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. 6 wins and placed in 15 of 24 races on Dirt tracks. More than 1 win on today's surface/distance. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List. Jockey appears in today's Top 50 Jockeys List.

⚡ Longshot2Slim Slow SliderML 15/1

Rating board at 57.4. Ridden by Luis Saez. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.61 sec/furlong. Ranked 1st in workouts over last month at 11.92 sec/furlong.

Race 3

2026-05-07T21:58:00

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Gypsy Art looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win4Gypsy ArtML 2/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 88.5 for Race 3. Ridden by Gerardo Corrales, trained by Wesley A. Ward. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 11.81 sec/furlong. Has placed in 3 of the last 4 races. Has placed in 3 of 4 at Sprint races. Placed in 3 of 4 races on Turf tracks. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.

place3Ink LiesML 3/1

Rating board at 66.5. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. Jockey appears in today's Top 50 Jockeys List.

⚡ Longshot1DismissML 12/1

Rating board at 49.2. Ridden by Mario Gutierrez. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 11.70 sec/furlong.

Our top picks for today focus on races with clear edges in speed figures, trainer form, and track bias. These are the spots where we see the most value on the board.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Awesome Ruta looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win1Awesome RutaML 7/5

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 89.4 for Race 4. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz, trained by Joe Sharp. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 22% win rate and finished in the money in 49% of races. 4 wins and placed in 15 of 19 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 12 races. Has placed in 6 of the last 6 races. Has 1 wins and placed in 6 of 6 races at 1 mi. Has WON 3 races in a row! Horse won last time it raced. 04/16/2026. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List. Jockey appears in today's Top 50 Jockeys List.

place4Eye Dee KayML 5/2

Rating board at 80.8 • 26% career wins. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. 11 wins and placed in 25 of 35 races on Dirt tracks.

show3CouperinML 12/1

Rating board at 67.9 • 28% career wins. Ridden by Rafael Bejarano. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.46 sec/furlong. 6 wins and placed in 14 of 23 races on Dirt tracks.

Race 5

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Llamp looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win1LlampML 7/2

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 67.7 for Race 5. Ridden by Ben Curtis, trained by Eddie Kenneally. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.48 sec/furlong.

place5NoroomformischiefML 10/1

Rating board at 63.5. Ridden by Danny Sheehy. Placed in 3 of 4 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in 3 of the last 4 races.

show11Hot GamerML 5/2

Rating board at 57.5. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.18 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races.

Race 6

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Pitkin looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win5PitkinML 2/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 88.5 for Race 6. Ridden by Edgard J. Zayas, trained by Ian R. Wilkes. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 11.67 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 21% win rate and finished in the money in 58% of races. Has placed in the last 2 races. Has placed in 2 of the last 3 races. Has 2 wins and placed in 3 of 4 of Medium Distance races. Has WON 2 races in a row! Horse won last time it raced. 02/28/2026. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.

⚡ Longshot11Heart HeadedML 10/1

Rating board at 69.1 • 36% career wins. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 11.60 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races.

Race 7

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Sutura looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win12SuturaML 3/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 87.1 for Race 7. Ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, trained by Jack Sisterson. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.27 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 56% of races. Has placed in the last 3 races. Has placed in 3 of the last 3 races. Has placed in 3 of 3 at Sprint races. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.

⚡ Longshot10Little Bit AngelML 8/1

Rating board at 48.3. Ridden by Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.. Ranked 1st in workouts over last month at 11.75 sec/furlong.

Race 8

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Nelson's Penny looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win6Nelson's PennyML 12/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 63.5 for Race 8. Career win rate of 33% shows consistency. Ridden by Jose L. Ortiz, trained by Kinnon LaRose. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 11.80 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races. Little success at sprint races - giving an endurance race a go. Jockey appears in today's Top 50 Jockeys List.

place2Rhythm LadyML 6/1

Rating board at 57.5 • 33% career wins. Ridden by Edgar Morales. Has 1 wins and placed in 2 of 3 of Medium Distance races.

⚡ Longshot12Go to GirlML 15/1

Rating board at 56.4. Ridden by Emmanuel Esquivel. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 21% win rate and finished in the money in 56% of races. Placed in 2 of 3 races at Churchill Downs.

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