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Belmont Park Picks & Predictions — October 29, 2026

October 29, 20268 racesAll Belmont Park picks

Best bets at Belmont Park, October 29, 2026

Race 16D C Boy'sML 2/11:10 PM EDT

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We're heading to Belmont Park on Thursday, October 29, and the big story walking in is the heat — 84°F under a cloudy sky is unseasonably warm for late October in New York, and that kind of mugginess can affect how horses finish a race, especially those going longer distances. Worth keeping in the back of your mind all afternoon.

Eight races are on the board today, and the card leans heavily on turf — four of the eight events go on the grass, including a pair of maiden routes and a sharp allowance optional claiming sprint. Dirt runners get their share of action too, with a maiden claiming mile kicking things off and a six-furlong dash in Race 6. There's something here for every type of bettor.

TrackWiz has full ratings across the card. The three strongest top picks by our model — D C Boy's, Bounce Back, and Grunge — all carry ratings north of 87, which is a solid cluster of confidence. But it's the potential overlays like Expensive Cut sitting at 6/1 in Race 3 that have us most intrigued heading into post time.

Best Bets

Race 1

1:10 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden claiming mile on dirt that splits almost cleanly into two tiers — a top duo with TrackWiz ratings well above the field, and five longshots scrambling for the minor placings.

win6D C Boy'sML 2/1

D C Boy's earns our top TrackWiz rating of 87.26 in this field and lands the morning line favoritism at 2/1, which tells you the market agrees. Trainer Michael J. Maker is one of the sharper conditioners in the game, and pairing him with Ricardo Santana, Jr. adds a high-percentage jockey angle to an already compelling profile. The one-mile dirt trip suits a horse with this kind of rating edge, and with a 53 average speed figure, he's got the foundation to get the job done at this maiden claiming level.

place1Kings LandynML 4/1

Kings Landyn posts the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 85.62 — essentially a dead heat with the top pick on raw numbers — making 4/1 morning line fair value for the place slot. Christopher Elliott gets the call for trainer Michael Miceli, and with a 54 average speed figure matching the race's best, Kings Landyn has the speed to sit close to the pace and threaten late. If the favorite stumbles at all, this one is positioned to capitalize.

show7Mo CurlsML 5/2

Mo Curls at 5/2 on the morning line is a legitimate threats in this spot, trained by Rudy R. Rodriguez and handled by the steady Jose Lezcano. The TrackWiz rating of 56.27 puts him in a different conversation than the bottom half of the field, and while the 51 average speed figure is a tick below the top two, he figures to be running on at the end of this mile. A solid show ticket hedge in a race where the top two aren't entirely certain to fire.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:41 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A wide-open allowance turf route where a horse with a dominant TrackWiz rating sits at a reasonable price, but a 50% career winner lurks at mid-range odds to complicate matters.

win8Sammy C NoteML 3/1

Sammy C Note is the clear top selection here with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — a significant edge over the rest of the field — and the 3/1 morning line reflects legitimate confidence. Trainer Michael Miceli sends him out with Antonio Fresu aboard, and a 55 average speed figure on turf at this 1 1/16-mile distance checks the right boxes. The 10% career win rate is modest, but the rating separation over this field is what matters most in an allowance spot like this.

place4Crescendo's ReinML 9/2

Crescendo's Rein is the most intriguing piece of this puzzle — a 50% career win rate is remarkable and speaks to a horse who knows how to finish the job when conditions align. Trained by Charlton Baker and ridden by Kendrick Carmouche, the 72.56 TrackWiz rating slots in solidly as the second-best figure in the race. The 9/2 morning line is honest value for a horse with that kind of winning profile.

show3Calvin's RideML 7/2

Calvin's Ride at 7/2 brings a sparkling 35% career win rate into this allowance field, and Manuel Franco's presence in the irons is never a bad thing on the Belmont turf. The 63.13 TrackWiz rating puts him third in the field by our metrics, and with a 55 average speed figure matching several rivals, he has the tools to find the exacta or trifecta board even if he can't run down the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Our three free races today — Race 1 (Maiden Claiming, 1 mile, dirt), Race 2 (Allowance, 1 1/16 miles, turf), and Race 3 (Claiming, 1 1/16 miles, dirt) — share a common thread: they're all route races, which means pace scenario and stamina are going to matter more than raw early speed. On a warm day like this, horses that rate kindly early and finish strong have a built-in edge.

D C Boy's opens as the 2/1 morning line favorite in Race 1, and our model backs that up with an 87.26 rating — the top mark among the free races. In Race 2, Sammy C Note draws our attention on the Belmont turf at 3/1, a fair price for an allowance contender with an 87.08 grade. The best value play in the free trio? That's Expensive Cut in Race 3 — a 6/1 morning line in a dirt claiming route is exactly the kind of number that gets us leaning in. At that price with an 82.71 rating, there's real overlay potential if the pace sets up right.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

2:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The top two horses by TrackWiz rating are actually sitting at overlaid prices in this claiming route, making Expensive Cut one of the more interesting value plays on the card today.

win6Expensive CutML 6/1

Expensive Cut is our value play of the race — an 82.71 TrackWiz rating that towers over most of this field, yet the morning line sits at 6/1, suggesting the market hasn't fully caught up. Manuel Franco, one of the premier riders at this meet, has the call for trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci, and a 53 average speed figure is competitive over this 1 1/16-mile dirt trip. The 13% career win rate is workmanlike, but with a big rating edge and a live jockey, this is a genuine overlay worth attacking.

place2Sara's ShamanML 4/1

Sara's Shaman nearly matches the race favorite Quick to Accuse on our rating scale — 62.24 to 62.20 — but gets significantly better morning line value at 4/1. Trainer Mertkan Kantarmaci has this one pointed right, and with a 54 average speed figure on par with the top competition, Sara's Shaman should be running close to the end of this thing. A 12% career win rate won't knock your socks off, but the place slot at this price is worth including in your exotics.

show1Quick to AccuseML 8/5

Quick to Accuse is the 8/5 morning line choice, and with a 20% career win rate and the top jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. in the saddle for trainer Fernando Abreu, the market respect is understandable. The 62.2 TrackWiz rating is top-tier in this field, and the 54 average speed figure fits the distance well. Even if our top pick fires at 6/1, Quick to Accuse's class and connections make him a reliable show ticket in a competitive claiming field.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

2:43 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

A large maiden claiming turf sprint with a clear top three by TrackWiz metrics — but it's a wide-open race below that tier, and several 15/1 shots carry enough raw speed to muddy the exacta.

win6Magnum's MicrobrstML 9/2

Magnum's Microbrst leads our ratings at 83.65 for this maiden claiming turf sprint and draws the rail-friendly six-hole for trainer David G. Donk, who knows this circuit well. Kendrick Carmouche gets the mount, and a 54 average speed figure is respectable in a field where several runners are unraced or lightly tested. At 9/2 on the morning line, this is a horse whose rating justifies favorite-level support, and the connections give you confidence the horse will be properly placed and prepped.

place9Saint TropezML 6/1

Saint Tropez enters with an 80.83 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field — and pulls Manuel Franco, one of the hottest jockeys at this meet. Trainer Philip Antonacci sends him out with a 56 average speed figure, which is among the highest recorded in this field, and the 6/1 morning line offers genuine value for a horse this well-figured. In a maiden field with plenty of unknowns, having Franco on board adds a significant tactical edge.

show11Empress New GrooveML 7/2

Empress New Groove is trained by Saffie A. Joseph, Jr., who consistently shows up ready in grass sprints, and the 77.6 TrackWiz rating is the third-best figure in the race. Paco Lopez takes the mount, and a 55 average speed figure is solid for a six-furlong turf dash. The 7/2 morning line makes her the second choice, and with top-shelf connections and a strong rating, she's a must-use in trifecta tickets even for players focused on our top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 5

3:14 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Turf

A large maiden special weight turf route with a dominant standout at the top — Bounce Back opens at 9/5 and our metrics back it up emphatically — though the deep field with several first-time starters creates exacta and trifecta intrigue.

win3Bounce BackML 9/5

Bounce Back has the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.83 — and it's not particularly close — making the 9/5 morning line feel like fair money given the caliber of connections. Trainer Mark E. Casse is one of the best in North America with grass maidens, and Antonio Fresu picks up what should be a live mount. The 55 average speed figure is solid, and in a field loaded with first-time starters and lightly-raced maidens, a horse with Casse's preparation behind it deserves the chalk.

place7Time Is SweetML 4/1

Time Is Sweet is a Chad C. Brown trainee, and Brown's record with maiden turf runners at Belmont is the stuff of legend. Manuel Franco takes the call, which is about as good as it gets for tactical positioning in a seven-furlong grass race. The 55 TrackWiz rating and 4/1 morning line represent fair value for a horse whose primary appeal is the trainer angle — Brown routinely sends these types out ready to run big on debut or return.

show5AttachmentML 8/1

Attachment at 8/1 is worth including in your exotic plays as a deeper option trained by the capable George Weaver, who also has Bonne Nuit in this race. Ricardo Santana, Jr. has the call, and the 48.33 TrackWiz rating and 56 average speed figure show enough raw ability to hit the board in this field. The price is right for trifecta coverage, and having Santana aboard is never a throwaway angle in a maiden turf sprint.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 6

3:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Six furlongs on dirt for maiden claimers — the pace scenario here should be honest with multiple speed horses, setting it up for a presser or closer to emerge at a price.

win9Dry DrasticML 5/2

Dry Drastic tops our TrackWiz ratings at 57.5 in what is genuinely a wide-open field, and the 5/2 morning line reflects that narrow edge. Kendrick Carmouche takes the mount for trainer Gustavo Rodriguez, and a 53 average speed figure is right in the mix for six furlongs on the main track. In a maiden claiming sprint where the field is bunched tightly on metrics, having the top-rated runner with a quality jockey is the safest path to a winner.

place2Risky MissionML 7/2

Risky Mission is the second-highest rated horse at 55.83 with Manuel Franco in the saddle for trainer Rudy R. Rodriguez — a consistent barn at this level. The 53 average speed figure matches pace rivals, and the 7/2 morning line is workable value for the place slot. Franco has a knack for finding the right position on speed horses in maiden sprints, which could make the difference if this race develops a pace duel up front.

show3UnderwoodML 9/2

Underwood at 9/2 brings a 54.17 TrackWiz rating and a 54 average speed figure — among the better recorded in this field — for trainer Timothy A. Hills and jockey Christopher Elliott. Elliott has been active at this meet and knows the track well. As a show ticket, Underwood represents a horse with enough raw speed to hang in behind the top two and hit the board in a race that figures to be competitive throughout.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 7

4:16 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

An allowance optional claiming turf sprint that shapes up as a genuine pace duel between speedsters, with the top two horses by TrackWiz rating carrying high average speed figures that set up a fast tempo.

win3GrungeML 5/2

Grunge is our top selection with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the best in the field — and arrives with the highest average speed figure in the race at 58. Trainer Miguel Clement and jockey Manuel Franco team up, and that's a combination that demands respect at any level. The 5/2 morning line is fair for a horse this well-rated, and with a 12% career win rate in a field that includes some legitimate rivals, the quality of the past performances has to be respected over raw win percentage.

place1Money Makes MoneyML 5/1

Money Makes Money brings a very strong 33% career win rate into this spot — meaning one in three career starts has ended in a visit to the winner's circle — and the 83.34 TrackWiz rating confirms the form is genuine. Trainer Robertino Diodoro sends him out with Kendrick Carmouche, and a 57 average speed figure ties for second in the race. At 5/1 on the morning line, this horse is a legitimate place threat and a must-use in exacta combinations.

show5Pivotal MomentML 3/1

Pivotal Moment is the other Clement trainee in the race, and when a barn doubles up in an optional claimer, it's worth noting that both horses deserve respect. Samuel Marin picks up the mount, and a 57 average speed figure matches Money Makes Money for second-best in the field. The 78.45 TrackWiz rating is third overall, and a 3/1 morning line keeps this horse from being classified as a true value, but in trifecta tickets he's a solid anchor in the show slot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

4:47 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A deep maiden special weight turf mile with a full field of first-timers and lightly-raced types — the kind of wide-open race where pace position and jockey savvy often matter more than raw figures.

win9Jordan the CaddyML 3/1

Jordan the Caddy tops our TrackWiz ratings for this maiden turf mile at 56.67 and draws Manuel Franco for trainer Linda Rice, which is about as strong a jockey-trainer connection as you'll find in a New York maiden race. The 56 average speed figure is the highest recorded in this field, suggesting meaningful upside in a race where several rivals haven't yet established their benchmarks. At 3/1 on the morning line, the market is aligned with our analysis — this horse is the one to beat.

place5NystateofmindML 4/1

Nystateofmind gets Javier Castellano for trainer George Weaver, and that's a pairing that has produced results at this level before. The 55 TrackWiz rating and 53 average speed figure are competitive, and at 4/1 on the morning line, this horse represents honest value in a field where connections often provide the separating factor on debut. Castellano's ability to get horses into position in a full gate on Belmont's turf course is a real asset.

show10Farmer JimML 6/1

Farmer Jim is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott — who has a second runner in this race with Charge the Mound — and Jose Lezcano gets the call. A 54 average speed figure and 51.67 TrackWiz rating place him comfortably in the top third of the field, and the 6/1 morning line offers genuine trifecta value. Mott doesn't run horses without confidence, and Lezcano knows how to manage pace on a turf course of this configuration.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

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Belmont delivers an interesting mix today — longshot value in Race 3 with Expensive Cut, a model-backed favorite in Race 1 with D C Boy's, and a loaded turf card in the back half of the afternoon. Those are your free anchors. For pace projections, exotic tickets, and full analysis on every race including Bounce Back and Grunge, subscribers have everything they need. Get the full card breakdown at TrackWiz Premium and hit the windows with confidence.

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