Daily Picks

Belmont Park Picks & Predictions — October 28, 2026

October 28, 20268 racesAll Belmont Park picks

Belmont Park is open for business on Wednesday, October 28, and Mother Nature is throwing a curveball right out of the gate. Rain is falling and the temperature is holding at a sticky 87°F — that combination is going to play havoc with pace scenarios all afternoon, particularly on the dirt surfaces where early speed horses will be fighting through a compromised track.

We've got an 8-race card on tap, mixing claimers, maiden special weights, and an allowance optional claiming feature that gives us something to dig into at every level of the condition book. With at least two turf races on the schedule, keep an eye on the stewards — any switch to the dirt substitute could scramble the whole card, and TrackWiz will update picks in real time if scratches or surface changes hit.

Bottom line: wet-track form is the lens you need to handicap today. Horses with mud experience or pedigree that suggests they'll handle an off track are worth a serious bump in your ratings. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

1:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Two TrackWiz top-rated horses separated by less than a point set up a fascinating claiming showdown at 1 1/16 miles, with a vulnerable morning-line favorite likely to get bet down despite a weaker rating.

win5Essence L VeeML 3/1

Essence L Vee earns the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 83.48, edging out Bodegas by less than a point, and that slim margin at the top of the leaderboard often signals the most reliable win contender. Trainer Mark A. Hennig keeps horses honest and Camila Hargrove gets the call, a booking worth noting on a horse already well-regarded by our model. With an 11% career win rate and an average speed figure of 52, she's slightly below the pack on raw speed but the overall profile still leads the field. At 3/1 on the morning line, this looks like fair value for what should be the most complete horse in the race.

place6BodegasML 6/1

Bodegas brings the best career win percentage in the field at 16% — that's a meaningful edge in a claiming field where consistency matters. His TrackWiz rating of 82.71 is right at Essence L Vee's heels, and with Reylu Gutierrez aboard and an average speed figure of 53, he has the raw numbers to run second at minimum. At 6/1 on the morning line, there's genuine place value here if you're willing to run him underneath the top pick in your exotics.

show7Icy LegsML 10/1

Icy Legs at 10/1 is an interesting deeper inclusion despite a 73.28 TrackWiz rating that still comfortably clears mid-field. A 7% career win rate isn't flashy, but in a claiming sprint stretched to 1 1/16 miles, horses with tactical speed and decent figures often sneak into the frame. Pedro Pena provides solid local experience, and at double-digit odds, Icy Legs offers show-bet value and a reasonable exotic hook.

Race 2

1:41 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight dash at 6 1/2 furlongs where several first-time starters and limited speed figures make this one genuinely tough — the morning-line favorite also holds the top TrackWiz rating, but the margins are close enough to keep the exotics interesting.

win3Nevah BettahML 2/1

Nevah Bettah tops the TrackWiz ratings at 58.33 and draws the services of Manuel Franco, one of the most accomplished riders at this circuit — that combination alone puts this horse at the top of the ticket in a maiden field. Trainer Jeremiah C. Englehart is a consistent presence on the New York circuit and knows how to have first-starters ready. The 2/1 morning line reflects public respect, but the rating edge over the field is real. An average speed figure of 54 ties the class leaders, and if Franco can get a good trip from post 3, this looks like a confident top selection.

place6Jetty UpML 3/1

Jetty Up is a fascinating play at 3/1 — trainer Michael J. Maker is a nationally respected conditioner who consistently gets horses ready, especially in maiden routes and sprints. The TrackWiz rating of 56.67 slots in just behind the top pick, and while no prior speed figure is available, Maker's horses often debut with more seasoning than the form book shows. In a field where many runners lack published works or figures, the trainer angle is the edge here.

show4Key FactorML 4/1

Key Factor checks in at a solid 55.0 TrackWiz rating with Ricardo Santana Jr. up — that's a jockey who rarely takes throwaway rides in maiden fields. Like Jetty Up, there's no published speed figure, but trainer Amelia J. Green has shown ability to develop young horses. At 4/1, Key Factor is a sensible show anchor for trifecta players who want a live, fairly-priced alternative rounding out the ticket.

Race 3

2:12 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

A maiden turf sprint with a clear top-two separated from the field, and a fascinating battle looms between the two highest-rated horses — Story of Rory and Sultan Hassan are nearly inseparable on the TrackWiz model, setting up a potentially contentious pace scenario with real implications for exotic players.

win1Story of RoryML 7/2

Story of Rory edges Sultan Hassan by just 0.51 TrackWiz rating points — 86.35 to 85.84 — and that tiny edge, combined with the rail post in a turf sprint, gives her a legitimate advantage in terms of trip efficiency. Trainer Amelia J. Green gets Samuel Marin in the irons, a jockey who has shown comfort navigating tight turf fields from inside posts. An average speed figure of 57 is the best in the field by two lengths, which is a concrete performance edge to hang your hat on. The 7/2 morning line feels right — this isn't a steal, but the top rating and top speed figure pointing the same direction makes her a confident top selection.

place7Sultan HassanML 7/2

Sultan Hassan at 7/2 is effectively a co-favorite with Story of Rory on our model, and Ricardo Santana Jr. is one of the premier riders in the country — he doesn't show up on maiden turf horses without a live chance. Trainer Horacio De Paz has the horse posting an average speed figure of 55, which ties Daisy Doo for second-best in the field. With a rating of 85.84 and a high-caliber jockey, Sultan Hassan is a natural place bet and a horse that could easily flip the result.

show4Daisy DooML 4/1

Daisy Doo earns the third-best TrackWiz rating at 75.91 with Javier Castellano — a Hall of Fame rider — aboard for trainer Robert Ribaudo. Her average speed figure of 55 ties Sultan Hassan and is well clear of the bottom half of the field. In a maiden turf sprint where the top two attract most of the money, Daisy Doo at 4/1 could offer plus-money show returns in trifectas. Don't overlook the Castellano booking in a race with multiple question marks.

Three races are open to every TrackWiz reader today, and they span the card nicely — a dirt claiming mile-and-sixteenth to kick things off, a short sprint maiden special weight, and an intriguing turf maiden that could go off the grass entirely depending on how the rail holds up. Essence L Vee tops Race 1 with an 83.48 TrackWiz rating and a morning line of 3/1 — a completely fair price if she handles the off going, which our analysis flags as a key question mark worth watching at the windows. In Race 2, Nevah Bettah is the 2/1 chalk in a maiden sprint, a race type where favorites are notoriously vulnerable — the 58.33 rating is the lowest of our three free picks, and we'll be watching the tote board hard before committing. Race 3's Story of Rory is our most confident free play at 86.35, but if that turf course gets sealed or taken off, everything changes.

The connecting thread across all three free races today is pace — rainy conditions tend to compress early fractions and set up closers. Horses that showed the ability to come from off the pace in recent starts deserve an extra look on a day like this one.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

2:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Ancient World's TrackWiz rating dominates this 6-furlong claiming field, but a 37% career win rate at favorable odds sets up a potential value play — the pace scenario with multiple speed horses could produce a contested early pace that plays right into his closer profile.

win2Ancient WorldML 4/1

Ancient World posts a commanding 85.62 TrackWiz rating — more than 12 points clear of the next horse — and a career win percentage of 37% is exceptional for a claiming horse at this level. Rocco Bowen picks up the mount, and trainer Steven I. Schauer has this horse looking like the class of the field. His average speed figure of 56 is best in the race, and if the early pace gets heated with several front-runners in the mix, a horse with these figures should be able to pounce in the stretch. The 4/1 morning line offers real value given how much the model separates him from the competition.

place4OsbourneML 2/1

Osbourne draws Manuel Franco — consistently one of the top riders at Belmont — and trainer Linda Rice has a long track record of winning with horses in these conditions. A 73.42 TrackWiz rating and a 12% career win rate don't jump off the page, but Franco's tactical ability and an average speed figure of 55 keep Osbourne firmly in the place conversation. At 2/1, he's expected to compete, and his profile as a stalker-type could be perfect if Ancient World kicks off a hot pace scenario.

show7Treaty ObligationML 3/1

Treaty Obligation comes in rated 69.75 by TrackWiz with Samuel Marin in the saddle and a 17% career win rate that shows this horse has found the winner's circle before. Trainer Rudy R. Rodriguez is a seasoned conditioner, and an average speed figure of 55 puts Treaty Obligation right in the mix on raw numbers. At 3/1 on the morning line, he'll likely go off near that price, and in a race where the top horses could set a contested pace, he's a solid show bet and a useful underneath leg in trifectas.

Race 5

3:14 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A full field of maiden claimers going 1 1/16 on the turf creates a complex pace puzzle — three horses cluster tightly at the top of the TrackWiz model, and the rider and trainer quality in this race is genuinely elite, making pace setup and trip luck especially critical.

win4Old Time RocknrollML 3/1

Old Time Rocknroll tops our pick list with a 82.73 TrackWiz rating and draws the legendary Javier Castellano, who excels around two turns on the turf — exactly what this 1 1/16-mile trip requires. Trainer Linda Rice knows how to have maiden claimers primed, and an average speed figure of 54 is among the best in this field. At 3/1 on the morning line, the combination of top-tier jockey, respected barn, and strong model rating makes this the horse to beat. In a big field, Castellano's ability to find a clean trip is a genuine handicapping advantage.

place12DutyML 6/1

Duty comes in with a 79.81 TrackWiz rating — essentially tied with Languid at the top of the supporting cast — and Samuel Marin provides solid competent riding for trainer Miguel Clement. An average speed figure of 53 is mid-range for this field, but the overall profile at 6/1 on the morning line offers legitimate place value. If Old Time Rocknroll controls the pace scenario, a closer like Duty could be picking up pieces late on the turf.

show10LanguidML 8/1

Languid is the other 79.79-rated horse in the supporting tier and presents a nearly identical profile to Duty on the model — which is why both land in our vertical coverage here. Trainer Richard E. Dutrow Jr. is a known quantity, and Antonio Fresu is a capable tactician who can find positions in large fields. At 8/1, Languid offers show value and is an appealing trifecta play underneath the top two, especially in a 12-horse maiden claimer on turf where pace can shuffle the deck.

Race 6

3:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

That'sthefactjack leads the TrackWiz ratings convincingly in what looks like a two-horse battle at the top — the presence of a 50% career win percentage horse complicates the pace picture and makes Dia Por Dia a threat despite a lower rating.

win2That'sthefactjackML 3/1

That'sthefactjack owns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.08 — a clear margin over the field — and Edgard J. Zayas gets the mount for trainer Domenick L. Schettino. A 12% career win rate in a claiming field is reasonable, but it's the model separation that stands out here. An average speed figure of 53 keeps him competitive on raw numbers, and at 3/1 on the morning line, this is one of the stronger win plays on the card where the rating advantage is unambiguous.

place4Vino FrizzanteML 7/2

Vino Frizzante rates second on the TrackWiz model at 85.62 — just 1.46 points behind the top pick — and trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci saddles two horses in this race, a common pattern when a barn is hot and wants coverage. Manuel Franco is an elite rider on any surface, and an average speed figure of 54 with a 10% career win rate puts this filly in legitimate contention. At 7/2, there's enough overlap in the ratings to make her a strong place inclusion.

show5Dia Por DiaML 2/1

Dia Por Dia is the wild card here — a 50% career win percentage is an extraordinary number, though it likely reflects a small sample in maiden or limited conditions. Jose Lezcano gets the call for Linda Rice, and the 79.69 TrackWiz rating is the third-best in the field. She goes off at 2/1 as the morning-line favorite based on connections and the win percentage, making her a show hedge with the model suggesting she's slightly overbet — but never discount a horse who hits the board half the time she runs.

Race 7

4:16 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 5/16 mi · Turf

Chad Brown's Arkhipov enters as the clear TrackWiz favorite with Flavien Prat aboard in a deep allowance optional claiming field on the turf — but Market Timing, also from the Brown barn, complicates the picture and could split support while creating a genuinely interesting pace scenario at the unique 1 5/16-mile distance.

win7ArkhipovML 3/1

Arkhipov tops this field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the same high mark shared with Race 6's top pick, but in a stronger allowance optional claiming field. Chad Brown is arguably the premier turf trainer in the country, and Flavien Prat is the ideal jockey for a longer turf route — his patient style at 1 5/16 miles is tailor-made for this distance. A 28% career win rate is genuinely strong, and an average speed figure of 54 ties several rivals — but it's the trainer-jockey combination and model confidence that separates Arkhipov. At 3/1, there's no great value overlay, but this is as reliable a top selection as you'll find today.

place4Eff Thirty FiveML 7/2

Eff Thirty Five brings the second-best career win percentage in this field at 36% — that's a horse who knows how to win. Trainer Michael J. Maker and jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. form a lethal pairing, and a 64.75 TrackWiz rating slots comfortably in the second tier. An average speed figure of 54 matches Arkhipov evenly on that metric, and at 7/2 on the morning line, place money on Eff Thirty Five is both logical and well-priced in what could be a tempo-friendly race for a horse with this win profile.

show6Market TimingML 4/1

Market Timing is the other Chad Brown runner in the field, which raises an interesting tactical question — will Prat hold Arkhipov back to let Market Timing lead, or will Brown simply let them run their races? A 50% career win percentage is impossible to ignore even in a small sample, and a 64.39 TrackWiz rating nearly matches Eff Thirty Five. Dylan Davis handles the mount, and at 4/1, Market Timing is a logical show anchor and trifecta leg — especially if the pace sets up for a Brown one-two.

Race 8

4:47 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

A massive 15-horse maiden claiming field on the turf creates a wide-open betting race — two horses share the highest TrackWiz rating in the field, setting up one of the most intriguing co-top pick scenarios on the card today.

win11Suited ConnectorsML 6/1

Suited Connectors earns a 80.21 TrackWiz rating — tied for the field's best — and gets Manuel Franco for trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci, who is no stranger to winning with turf maidens. Program number 11 means she'll need to navigate a big field from an outside post, but Franco's ability to find cover and make one run late on turf is well-established. An average speed figure of 53 is solid for this level, and at 6/1 on the morning line, there's legitimate overlay value given the tied-for-best rating. In a race this size on turf, a patient pace setup and a clean run to the line is often all a quality horse needs.

place3Copper CaduceusML 3/1

Copper Caduceus shares the 80.21 TrackWiz rating with Suited Connectors — exactly tied — but draws a much more favorable post at number 3 with Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard for trainer Thomas Morley. An average speed figure of 55 is second-best in the entire field and gives Copper Caduceus a measurable edge on raw performance numbers. At 3/1 morning line, he's expected to be well-supported, and the better post draw in a large field could be the difference between a good trip and a troubled one.

show10Midnight BlueML 6/1

Midnight Blue checks in at 74.58 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field — and draws Javier Castellano for trainer John S. Pregman Jr. in a spot that screams value at 6/1. An average speed figure of 54 is comfortably above mid-field, and Castellano rarely gets on a horse without a real shot to hit the board. In a 15-horse maiden claimer on turf, show prices can balloon — making Midnight Blue a compelling show bet and a key trifecta piece at these odds.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Rain at Belmont means today's card rewards preparation over gut feel. Story of Rory is our best free play, Essence L Vee sets the early tone in Race 1, and the premium card is loaded with pace angles and exotic opportunities that could make for a very profitable afternoon. Upgrade at /pricing to see the full picture — and as always, bet smart and stay flexible as conditions evolve.

← All Belmont Park picks & predictions

Best Bets

Race 1↗

Race 2↗

Race 3↗

Full Card Analysis

Get the Full Card Analysis

Race 1

Race 2

Race 3