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Belmont Park Picks & Predictions — October 25, 2026

October 25, 20269 racesAll Belmont Park picks

Belmont Park is open for business on a warm Sunday afternoon, with partly cloudy skies and a sweltering 90°F at post time. That kind of late-October heat is unusual for the Big Sandy, and it's worth keeping an eye on how horses handle the conditions — especially those shipping in without a recent work in similar temperatures.

We've got a nine-race card to dig into, mixing maiden sprints and routes on the turf with a pair of stakes races that give today some real teeth. The turf courses should be in solid shape given the dry weather, and the dirt strip figures to be fast and receptive to pace-pressing runners.

Three races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, and our top picks across the free races carry TrackWiz ratings of 84.9 to 88.83 — a strong cluster that suggests the analysis lines up nicely. Buckle in.

Best Bets

Race 1

1:10 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Chad Brown sends out two live ones in this mile dirt allowance optional claimer, creating a clear two-horse class standout at the top — but the morning line underestimates at least one of them.

win3Minute by MinuteML 9/2

Minute by Minute is the standout of this field by a significant margin, posting an 84.9 TrackWiz rating — nearly 3.5 points clear of stablemate Limes Don't Lie. A 40% career win rate is elite at any level, and with Manuel Franco in the irons, Chad Brown's runner gets an A-list pilot who knows how to sit off a pace and pounce. The 9/2 morning line looks generous for a horse with this profile in a relatively short field. This is the kind of play where the model and the eye test both point the same direction.

place6Limes Don't LieML 3/1

Limes Don't Lie is the other half of the Brown barn one-two punch, carrying an 81.49 rating and a 25% career win clip. Dylan Davis has been sharp around here, and the 3/1 morning line may actually undervalue this horse slightly given the trainer's hit rate. If Minute by Minute has any trouble, this one is right there to steal the win — at minimum, she's a strong place play in exactas.

show4PurloinML 5/1

Purloin at 5/1 offers legitimate exotic value as the third distinct class tier in this race, with a 68.25 rating and a solid 26% career win percentage under Linda Rice. Jose Lezcano is a savvy veteran who can navigate a one-mile trip and park a horse in a ground-saving spot. If the two Brown horses bounce off each other or one has a troubled trip, Purloin is the most likely beneficiary.

Race 2

1:42 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A full field of maiden turf route runners makes this 1 1/16-mile affair legitimately wide open — half the field shows no available speed figures, which adds a layer of mystery but also opportunity for a standout who does have a form line.

win1Charlotte's BeachML 5/2

Charlotte's Beach is the clear class standout here, posting an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field by more than 30 points — and drawing the rail with Javier Castellano, one of the best turf pilots in the country. Mark Casse is a trainer who knows how to place maiden turf routers, and the 5/2 morning line reflects legitimate favorites support. The 55 average speed figure gives her a measurable edge over most rivals who have clocked nothing at all.

place7Col de La LozeML 7/2

Col de La Loze is the Chad Brown entry here, and Brown's record with firsters and lightly-raced maidens on the turf at Belmont speaks for itself. The 7 horse draws a clean outside post that works well on a route, and Manuel Franco knows exactly how to rate a horse around two turns on the grass. With no published speed figure, there's some projection involved — but at 7/2, the Brown-Franco combination alone makes this a horse you want underneath.

show9Aesthetic EmotionML 4/1

Aesthetic Emotion at 4/1 morning line is the third horse in this race without an available speed figure, which cuts both ways — unknown upside with a trainer in Miguel Clement who has shown he can produce sharp debut efforts. Samuel Marin gets the call, and Clement's runners have shown a pattern of being ready first off the turf. Include this one in your exacta and trifecta constructions as a price horse with real tactical possibilities.

Race 3

2:16 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Linda Rice saddles both the top two contenders in this 1 1/16-mile dirt allowance optional claimer, giving her a tactical advantage — but the pace scenario among the supporting cast will determine whether her duo can coast or gets tested.

win4Lady RoseML 9/5

Lady Rose is an easy top pick here with a field-best 88.83 TrackWiz rating and an impressive 37% career win rate — that's a high-strike runner at the allowance level, and Jose Lezcano is one of the savviest mid-field pilots in the NYRA colony. The 9/5 morning line makes her the public choice, and for once, the public is right. A 53 average speed figure is competitive at this level, and with a trusted trainer-jockey combo, there's little reason to look away.

place1Sweetest PrincessML 5/2

Sweetest Princess is the other Linda Rice entry and rates as a solid second choice at 5/2, carrying an 80.71 rating with Manuel Franco aboard — an upgrade in pilot that merits attention. The 14% career win rate is the one soft spot, suggesting she's found ways to finish off the board before, but her average speed figure of 54 is right in the mix. In a race where Rice controls two horses, Franco and Lezcano can effectively set terms and protect each other's interests.

show5CharlottesuniverseML 7/2

Charlottesuniverse draws the 5 hole for Mark Casse with Javier Castellano up, and a 73.19 rating with a 25% career win rate makes her a legitimate third option in exotics. At 7/2, she won't pay much to show, but for trifecta construction she's the right call — Casse and Castellano rarely send a horse to the post without a plan, and a 55 average speed figure keeps her competitive with the top two.

Our three free races today cover a nice spread of conditions and distances. On the dirt, Minute by Minute (Race 1, Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 mile) and Lady Rose (Race 3, Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 miles) are the headliners — both rated above 84 and both worth a close look as the kind of class-sorted runners who tend to thrive on a fast Belmont dirt track. Lady Rose in particular carries an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and is sitting at a juicy 9/5 morning line, suggesting real confidence in her chances.

On the turf, Charlotte's Beach (Race 2, Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 miles) rounds out the free card at 87.81 and 5/2 on the morning line. Maiden turf routers at Belmont can be tricky — inexperience cuts both ways — but the rating here is the highest of the three free picks, and that distance suits a patient, pace-tracking style. With the turf expected to be firm under these dry, warm conditions, don't be surprised if the pace plays out in a way that benefits a closer making a sustained run down the lane.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

2:49 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Turf

This six-furlong turf maiden sprint is a locked room mystery — half the field is first-time starters or has no published speed figures, making pace projection difficult and creating value opportunities for horses with any kind of measurable form edge.

win5My Divine SpiritML 9/2

My Divine Spirit tops our TrackWiz ratings at 68.72 in a field where numbers are scarce, and a 56 average speed figure is among the best available benchmarks on the card. Jorge Abreu has been money with first-off-the-layoff types and Edgard Zayas knows the Belmont turf course well. The 9/2 morning line represents fair value for a horse who arguably owns the most complete profile in a wide-open field — this is a calculated lean, not a lock.

place6Florida PatriotML 7/5

Florida Patriot comes in as the morning-line favorite at 7/5 with Ricardo Santana Jr. up for Thomas Morley, posting a 59.33 rating and an eye-catching 58 average speed figure — the highest raw speed number in the field. The favorite role on a 6-furlong turf sprint is tricky with a large field, but Santana knows how to get out of the gate clean and secure position early. Even if the public hammer play gets beat, this one is likely to finish close.

show3Social SceneML 3/1

Social Scene at 3/1 brings a 56.67 rating and a 54 average speed figure, and William Walden's runner lands in a comfortable middle post with Antonio Fresu. The pace on a 6-furlong turf sprint often plays to mid-pack closers who can find a seam, and Fresu has the savvy to get Social Scene into the right spot. She's a sensible show option and a necessary piece in trifecta tickets given the chaos potential in this maiden sprint.

Race 5

3:23 PM EDT

Stakes · 7 fur · Turf

A deep, competitive turf stakes at seven furlongs with real contenders spread across a wide range of odds — this is a race where the morning line barely tells the story, and value hides in the middle of the program.

win10Beach HeistML 6/1

Beach Heist is our top selection at 6/1 morning line, packing the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 82.71 alongside a 33% career win rate and a 57 average speed figure — the kind of numbers that suggest consistent class at the stakes level. Manuel Franco gets the mount for William Walden, and Franco on the turf at seven furlongs is one of the better jockey-distance combos on the NYRA circuit. The price makes this a strong win bet — you're getting real value on what our model considers the top horse.

place9EmblazeML 6/1

Emblaze runs for Miguel Clement with Ricardo Santana Jr. in the saddle, carrying a 79.67 rating and a matching 57 average speed figure along with a sharp 40% career win rate. The 6/1 morning line puts her at the same price as our top pick, which means the exacta combining these two could pay handsomely if they run one-two. Clement has been among the hotter trainers in the NYRA colony this meet and Santana gives him every chance.

show6Snappy ComebackML 10/1

Snappy Comeback is the show value play at 10/1 for Jose Francisco D'Angelo, showing a 76.27 rating and a 57 average speed figure that matches the top tier speed-wise. The 22% career win rate is respectable, and Samuel Marin gets a horse who has enough raw ability to sneak into the exotics at a big price. At 10/1 on the morning line, the overlay potential in trifectas and superfectas is too good to ignore.

Race 6

3:57 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite carries a modest 13% career win rate — which makes this six-furlong dirt allowance more nuanced than the tote board suggests, with two live bombs lurking at double-digit odds.

win6Mo for the KingML 6/5

Mo for the King is the morning-line favorite at 6/5 and holds our top rating at 81.67 for Robert Falcone, Jr. The 13% career win rate is the one thing that will keep bettors up at night, but TrackWiz analysis puts this horse clearly ahead of the field on pure ability metrics — a 55 average speed figure at this level is exactly what you want. Kendrick Carmouche is a steady hand in sprints, and Falcone runners often improve significantly once they get into an allowance groove.

place4East Coast GirlML 7/2

East Coast Girl brings elite credentials to this field — a 40% career win rate and a 77.25 rating for trainer Katlynn Gutterson, who draws Emanuel De Diego for the ride. A 56 average speed figure edges out the favorite slightly on raw speed, and at 7/2 she gives you real place value. If Mo for the King is vulnerable due to that low win rate, East Coast Girl is the most likely horse to expose the chink in the armor.

show2AndermanML 12/1

Anderman is the show price play at 12/1 for Jonathaniel Badillo-Casado, carrying a 64.32 rating and a very solid 30% career win rate — that's a legitimate winner in this company. Edwin Gonzalez gets the call, and a 55 average speed figure means Anderman won't be getting outrun early. At double-digit morning-line odds, this is exactly the kind of horse you want anchoring the bottom of your trifectas.

Race 7

4:31 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Three horses are bunched within less than half a point at the top of TrackWiz ratings in this 6.5-furlong dirt allowance — this is a razor-thin race at the top with a clear drop-off below, which sets up nicely for exacta and trifecta players.

win7Central to SuccessML 7/2

Central to Success earns our top rating at 86.35 and gets Jose Lezcano for trainer Robert E. Reid, Jr. — a pairing that has been productive this meet. The 7 post in a 6.5-furlong sprint is workable at Belmont, and a 55 average speed figure with a 20% career win rate makes this a horse who is capable of winning at this level without necessarily having done it often. At 7/2 morning line, the price is fair for the top-rated horse and sets up nicely as an exacta key.

place3Material GirlML 2/1

Material Girl is only a whisker behind at 86.29 with Manuel Franco in for Chad Brown — and when Brown sends a horse with Franco to post in an allowance, you take notice regardless of what the numbers say. The 2/1 morning line will attract public money, but she's legitimately one of the top two horses in here on ability. A 53 average speed figure is a tick below her main rivals, so place is the right framing — she'll likely run big even if she doesn't win.

show4Liberty's SecretML 5/2

Liberty's Secret at 5/2 for Patrick Quick with Dylan Davis is the third leg of what looks like a quality trifecta on top — posting an 85.11 rating, only marginally below the top two. A 55 average speed figure and a 20% career win rate mirror Central to Success almost exactly, which means the race could come down to post position luck or a trip. At 5/2 she's priced like a contender, and for show or trifecta purposes, she's a solid anchor.

Race 8

5:05 PM EDT

Stakes · 7 fur · Turf

Life's Dynamic carries a perfect career record into this seven-furlong turf stakes, creating a fascinating dynamic against a morning-line favorite at 8/5 and a deep supporting cast — this is a race with a hidden class question at the top.

win1Life's DynamicML 9/2

Life's Dynamic is our top selection at 9/2 with a 84.9 TrackWiz rating and — worth noting — a perfect career record, according to the data. Arnaud Delacour has long been a sharp turf trainer and Mychel Sanchez is a capable pilot who can rate a horse through a seven-furlong turf trip. The 57 average speed figure is among the best in the field, and Delacour's barn has a history of producing sharp efforts in stakes spots. The 9/2 price is legitimate value on a horse whose record suggests she hasn't been beaten yet.

place5Lion LakeML 8/5

Lion Lake is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 for Brendan Walsh with Manuel Franco, carrying a 73.92 rating and a 20% career win rate. Walsh is a world-class trainer with elite turf horses, and Franco always gives his mounts every chance at this distance. The lower career win rate relative to Life's Dynamic gives us pause on the win, but in place, Lion Lake is a near-certainty to finish close — Franco doesn't let horses disappear in stakes races.

show8Hark TheangelssingML 8/1

Hark Theangelssing brings an eye-popping 62% career win rate into this race for Michael Trombetta with Ismerio Villalobos aboard, which is the kind of number that demands attention in any field. An 8/1 morning line and a 73.71 TrackWiz rating suggest the public may be sleeping on a horse who has won at a remarkably high clip — a 57 average speed figure matches Lion Lake exactly. At 8/1, the show return alone is likely strong, and trifecta players should include this one prominently.

Race 9

5:38 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

A wide-open 14-horse turf claiming sprint to close the card — a sprawling, unpredictable field where pace will be chaotic and the horse with the best late turn of foot is likely to come flying from off the pace.

win6ScorchML 9/5

Scorch is the clear standout here at 9/5 morning line with a field-best 88.83 TrackWiz rating for Fernando Abreu — a number that sits well above the rest of this claiming field. The 59 average speed figure is by far the highest on the card, suggesting this horse has a significant raw speed edge when at her best. Jose Lezcano gets the mount, and with only an 11% career win rate there's some volatility baked in — but on pure ability, nothing in this field comes close, making her a confident top selection.

place11Five Dozen RosesML 5/1

Five Dozen Roses at 5/1 brings a 73.98 rating for Linda Rice — one of the better claiming trainers on the circuit — with Javier Castellano picking up the mount, which is always an upgrade. A 56 average speed figure and only a 10% career win rate mirrors the volatility question we see with the top pick, but in a 14-horse field with chaotic pace expected, place is the right play for a horse with this profile. Castellano in a large-field sprint knows exactly how to navigate for a piece.

show10Heaven's BoltML 8/1

Heaven's Bolt at 8/1 for Michael Maker with Manuel Franco offers legitimate late value in what figures to be a strung-out pace scenario over six furlongs on turf. A 58.85 rating and a 54 average speed figure put this horse in the middle of the field ability-wise, but Maker is one of the top claiming trainers nationally and Franco will have this horse running at the right time. A 14% career win rate in claiming company shows she competes — the 8/1 price makes the show and exotic play very attractive.

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Today's Belmont card has something for everyone — fast-dirt allowance horses, turf maiden intrigue, and two legitimate stakes races to anchor your wagers. Our top free plays are Minute by Minute, Charlotte's Beach, and Lady Rose, all rated 84 or better. For the full nine-race breakdown including pace projections and exotic ticket construction, subscribers have everything they need waiting inside. Good luck at the windows — let's make it a profitable Sunday.

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