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Belmont Park Picks & Predictions — October 24, 2026

October 24, 202611 racesAll Belmont Park picks

Belmont Park is serving up a big one on Saturday, October 24. Eleven races, nine of them stakes, spread across both dirt and turf — this is the kind of card that separates serious handicappers from the crowd. Temperatures are sitting at a comfortable 83°F under partly cloudy skies, and the turf should be in prime shape for the five grass races on the schedule.

The mix of distances tells the story of the day: six-furlong sprints on the turf, route races stretching to 1 1/8 miles on the dirt, and everything in between. Whether you're a pace analyst, a speed figure hunter, or a value-seeker looking for overlays, today's card has angles worth digging into from the first post to the finale.

TrackWiz has graded all 11 races, with three free best bets to get you started and full premium breakdowns on the remaining eight. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:05 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

A Starter Optional Claiming sprint on the turf with a clear top-rated standout, but enough live runners underneath to make the exotics interesting.

win5MidnightloveaffairML 3/1

Midnightloveaffair earns the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 and carries the best average speed figure (59) of any horse in this race. The 3/1 morning line is fair but not generous — this horse projects as the most accomplished runner here by a meaningful margin. Trainer Bruce N. Levine keeps runners fit and the 6½-furlong turf trip suits a horse with this kind of tactical ability. A 16% career win rate understates the overall form cycle when you factor in the raw speed advantage over the field.

place6Bella KnowsML 2/1

Bella Knows is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 for good reason — Brad H. Cox is one of the sharpest trainers in the country at hitting spots, and Manuel Franco is an elite pilot who rarely wastes a trip. The TrackWiz rating of 75.74 puts her solidly in the mix, and while her 16% career win rate mirrors Midnightloveaffair's, the Cox-Franco combination demands respect in a spot like this.

show7Oklahoma SmokeML 9/2

Oklahoma Smoke at 9/2 brings the most impressive career win percentage in this field at 42%, which tells you this horse knows how to finish. Flavien Prat in the irons is never a throwaway, and the TrackWiz rating of 75.3 keeps Oklahoma Smoke firmly in contention for the minor awards. A solid show play for exotics builders looking to round out trifectas.

Race 2

4:38 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

A compact five-horse stakes on the dirt mile that shapes up as a tight ratings cluster at the top, with two unbeaten runners creating an interesting pace and value dynamic.

win5B Yutiful CarlyML 9/5

B Yutiful Carly draws the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 58.67 and lands on the morning-line as the 9/5 favorite, which is where the algorithm and the oddsmakers agree. A 50% career win rate in a stakes environment signals genuine class, and Ricardo Santana Jr. is one of the best closers in the game when the mile sets up right. Trainer Horacio De Paz keeps horses sharp, and this looks like a well-spotted entry.

place3Cash BurnML 2/1

Cash Burn is the most intriguing horse in the race — a perfect career record (100% win rate) paired with a Chad Brown barn and Flavien Prat in the saddle is a combination that demands serious respect. The 2/1 morning line reflects that, and with a TrackWiz rating of 58.33 barely trailing our top pick, this horse could easily flip the result. Brown wins at elite rates in stakes company, so a place ticket here is well-justified.

show4Sun Kissed BlissML 5/2

Sun Kissed Bliss also enters unbeaten (100% career win rate) and draws Kendrick Carmouche for trainer Joe Sharp. The 5/2 morning line suggests the market sees this as a three-horse race, and TrackWiz analysis agrees — the 57.5 rating and a one-tick edge in average speed figures over the field make this a logical show option for trifecta coverage.

Race 3

5:11 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Munnings Express looks like a dominant class standout in this 6½-furlong dirt stakes, but a pair of underrated horses create real exotic potential underneath.

win3Munnings ExpressML EVN

Munnings Express opens at even money and carries a perfect 90.00 TrackWiz rating — the field's ceiling. Manuel Franco is one of the best in the business in these tight sprint situations, and trainer Linda Rice knows how to have horses ready for Belmont. A 46% career win rate in stakes company is substantial, and the 56 average speed figure leads the group. Fade this one at your own risk.

place5VenettaML 5/2

Venetta at 5/2 is our place pick and the most logical alternative to the chalk. Trainer Danny Gargan has placed horses well at Belmont this season, and Flavien Prat rarely takes bad mounts. The 73.67 TrackWiz rating is the second-best in the field, and a 60% career win rate — the highest of any runner here — says this horse competes when it matters. A price that reflects second billing but form that says it could easily be first.

show1Queens CatML 15/1

Queens Cat is our show play at a juicy 15/1 morning line, making this the value angle of the race. Despite that big price, the 67.01 TrackWiz rating actually ranks third in the field — ahead of Celtic Dawn, Sunday Girl, and Kay Cup. A 50% career win rate in limited spots gives this runner legitimate credentials, and Nazario Alvarado on the inside could steal a stalking trip in a race where the chalk and place pick draw all the attention.

The three free races give you a strong cross-section of the card. Munnings Express headlines the group with a TrackWiz rating of 90 — our highest mark of the day, shared only by Shoot It True later on the turf — and goes in Race 3 at even money on the morning line, which tells you the market agrees. In the opener, Midnightloveaffair (87.08 rating) draws our attention in the Starter Optional Claiming sprint on the turf at 6 1/2 furlongs, where surface conditions are playing right into today's forecast. Race 2's top pick, B Yutiful Carly, is the morning line favorite in a mile stakes on the dirt — a reminder that ratings alone don't tell the whole story, and pace scenario matters just as much.

On a warm October afternoon with turf likely riding firm and fast, grass runners with early tactical speed are worth watching all day. Keep that in mind as you look at the free plays — it's a thread that runs through the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:44 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

A stakes route on the dirt that features the three highest-rated horses in recent TrackWiz form — Grazie, Valtellina, and Bernietakescharge — running 1-2-3 in the morning line for good reason.

win4GrazieML 7/5

Grazie tops the TrackWiz ratings at 89.42 and opens at 7/5 — the morning line says it all. Flavien Prat is as good as it gets on the dirt at 1⅛ miles, and Todd Pletcher's 50% career win rate with this horse is frankly eye-catching. The 55 average speed figure leads the field, and when you combine elite ratings, a blue-chip trainer, and the top jockey, the only question is whether the price holds value — at 7/5, it may not, so exotics are the play.

place3ValtellinaML 8/5

Valtellina at 8/5 is almost as imposing as the top pick, with a 86.19 TrackWiz rating and a 35% career win rate for trainer Raymond Handal. Dylan Davis has been quietly excellent in these spots, and the one-step back in rating from Grazie could just as easily be noise given how close these two are. This looks like the core of any exacta combination you're building.

show2BernietakeschargeML 2/1

Bernietakescharge at 2/1 with Kendrick Carmouche is the third piece of a legitimate trifecta key. The 80.72 TrackWiz rating is well clear of the rest of the field, and Carmouche has shown sharp awareness around two-turn routes at Belmont. Trainer Domenick Schettino's 33% career win rate with this horse keeps it honest, and the morning line price makes it a worthwhile show ticket.

Race 5

6:17 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A deep turf stakes at 1⅛ miles where two powerhouse TrackWiz ratings are separated by just a razor-thin margin — this one could come down to the wire.

win6George BriggsML 2/1

George Briggs edges out our top rating at 88.54, just ahead of Spirit of St Louis, and the 2/1 morning line makes him the slight value play between the two. Trainer Miguel Clement has been excellent on the Belmont turf, and Flavien Prat's tactical awareness over a route of ground is exactly what you want when pace scenarios are unpredictable. A 37% career win rate across all conditions shows consistent competitiveness at this level.

place3Spirit of St LouisML 9/5

Spirit of St Louis is practically a co-favorite in our ratings at 88.38 — essentially a dead heat with the win pick — and the 9/5 morning line reflects that. Chad Brown wins at a jaw-dropping clip on New York turf, and Manuel Franco partnering with a Brown horse going a route is one of the most reliable combinations on the circuit. The 50% career win rate is the best in this field and speaks for itself.

show1Sounds Like a PlanML 3/1

Sounds Like a Plan is our show selection at 3/1 with a 77.54 TrackWiz rating that's comfortably clear of the rest of the field outside the top two. Ricardo Santana Jr. pilots for Horacio De Paz, and the 40% career win rate is legitimate. This horse figures to be on or near the lead, and in a race where the top two draw all the focus, a stalking trip at a fair price could reward show bettors nicely.

Race 6

6:50 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Turf

Wesley Ward drops a monster into this six-furlong turf stakes, and the rest of the field will need to find their best to crack the trifecta.

win3Shoot It TrueML EVN

Shoot It True carries a 90.00 TrackWiz rating — the maximum in our system — and opens at even money for Wesley Ward, the undisputed king of short turf sprints. Antonio Fresu takes the mount and gets a horse with a 45% career win rate and the top-tied average speed figure in the field at 58. When Ward spots a horse in a spot like this, you listen — the combination of blazing figures and elite trainer form is hard to argue with.

place4Boston's PhinestML 10/1

Boston's Phinest at 10/1 is our value play for the place slot and deserves more respect than that morning line suggests. Manuel Franco — arguably the best jockey in New York right now — takes the mount for Bruce R. Brown, and the 67.43 TrackWiz rating ranks third in this nine-horse field. A 26% career win rate in a tough competitive environment is respectable, and Franco's ability to put horses in the right position early makes this an intriguing underneath option at a generous price.

show9AnnascaulML 6/1

Annascaul at 6/1 rounds out our trifecta ticket with solid underlying credentials. The 63.26 TrackWiz rating is the second-best of our three picks, and Flavien Prat for Miguel Clement is a combination that keeps rolling at Belmont. A 37% career win rate shows this horse is no stranger to finishing near the front, and six furlongs on turf is squarely in the comfort zone.

Race 7

7:23 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

An unusual stakes mile where the morning-line favorite carries a perfect record but the TrackWiz model sees several horses bunched at the top — pace scenario and positioning will be decisive.

win5Hammerin HenryML 8/1

Hammerin Henry at 8/1 is our upset special, sitting on top of the TrackWiz ratings at 62.52 despite being overlooked by the morning-line makers. Samuel Marin takes the mount for Brad Cox — one of the most respected trainers in the country — and a 33% career win rate in stakes company says this horse belongs. The pace scenario sets up perfectly for a horse with this kind of tactical speed, and Cox horses in this spot have a habit of running past tired frontrunners.

place3Covered OptionML 12/1

Covered Option at 12/1 is a genuine value play with a 59.78 TrackWiz rating that barely trails the win pick. Trainer Lisa Bartkowski has this horse ready to fire, and Antonio Fresu's ability to save ground on the rail at one mile is a real asset. A 33% career win rate at this level earns consideration, and the double-digit morning line means the place pool could be generous if this horse runs to its rating.

show1ScramjetML 8/5

Scramjet is the 8/5 favorite and posts a perfect 100% career win rate — hard to completely fade, even as our third choice. Kendrick Carmouche for Linda Rice is a sharp combination, and the 59.00 TrackWiz rating is right in the cluster. Our model gives a narrow preference to others on pure form, but Scramjet's unbeaten record means it belongs in every trifecta you write.

Race 8

7:56 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Sacrosanct enters as a dominant class standout in this 6½-furlong dirt stakes, with a significant ratings gap over a field that could battle for the minor spots.

win8SacrosanctML 3/1

Sacrosanct carries an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — head and shoulders above this field — and posts a 54% career win rate that is genuinely elite. Manuel Franco takes the assignment for Linda Rice, and that jockey-trainer combo has been clicking at Belmont all meet. The 57 average speed figure leads the field by a tick, and a 3/1 morning line offers reasonable value on what shapes up as the most accomplished runner in the race. This is the kind of spot where backing the class plays.

place9Sculcos FollyML 4/1

Sculcos Folly at 4/1 has the second-best career win rate in the field at 60%, which is eye-opening for a horse at this price. Flavien Prat rarely accepts a bad mount, and trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. knows how to get horses ready to fire in sprint conditions. The 64.51 TrackWiz rating is well clear of the bottom half of this field, and Prat's ability to rate a horse in a sprint suits this setup well.

show6Acoustic AveML 6/1

Acoustic Ave at 6/1 is the third piece of the puzzle with a 58.82 TrackWiz rating that ranks third in the field. Jose Lezcano for Linda Rice gives this horse two connections that know Belmont well, and a 23% career win rate in a competitive sprint environment means Acoustic Ave isn't just filling a field. The 56 average speed figure matches the top horses, making the 6/1 price a fair show value.

Race 9

8:29 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Turf

Waralo looks like the dominant force in this six-furlong turf stakes, but the horses right behind it in the ratings create a compelling exotics battle underneath.

win2WaraloML 7/5

Waralo opens at 7/5 and leads the field with a 89.42 TrackWiz rating — one of the highest marks you'll see all day. Jose Lezcano takes over the mount for Chris Englehart, and this horse's 40% career win rate in stakes company backs up the model's confidence. The 58 average speed figure is tied for the field's best, and in a six-furlong turf sprint, that kind of early punch can be decisive. This is a horse that the data consistently points to, and the price, while short, reflects a legitimate standout.

place3Twenty Six BlackML 2/1

Twenty Six Black at 2/1 is our place selection and the most likely horse to give Waralo a fight. Manuel Franco takes the mount for Horacio De Paz, and a 59 average speed figure is actually the highest in the entire race — making this horse the most dangerous closer in the field. The 75.81 TrackWiz rating is a clear second-best, and a 36% career win rate means Twenty Six Black knows how to put a number on the board.

show5Bold JourneyML 5/1

Bold Journey at 5/1 is our show selection for William Mott — a Hall of Fame trainer who rarely runs horses unprepared. The 72.35 TrackWiz rating is a solid third-best in the field, and Junior Alvarado can coax a pace-pressing performance from a horse with this kind of talent. A 21% career win rate looks modest, but in a quality stakes field, that context matters less than the underlying speed figures.

Race 10

9:02 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

A deep 10-horse dirt stakes going 1⅛ miles where the TrackWiz model identifies a significant gap between the top-rated contender and the rest of the field — but the 6/1 price makes this one of the day's better value opportunities.

win6Bank FrenzyML 6/1

Bank Frenzy at 6/1 owns the top TrackWiz rating in this 10-horse field at 82.71, which is a meaningful edge over the second-best contender at 69.71. Manuel Franco in the irons is as reliable as it gets going two turns, and a 41% career win rate for trainer Linda Rice speaks to consistent form at this level. The 6/1 morning line is legitimately appealing for the top-rated horse — this is the kind of overlay our model identifies and bettors should take advantage of.

place9Doc SullivanML 4/1

Doc Sullivan at 4/1 is our place pick with a 69.71 TrackWiz rating that checks in as the field's second-best. Samuel Marin takes the mount for Amelia J. Green, and a 28% career win rate in route conditions keeps this horse honest. The pace scenario at 1⅛ miles often sets up well for a horse with this profile — tracking the leaders and pouncing in the stretch — and the 4/1 price is fair for a secondary wager.

show4PandagateML 6/1

Pandagate at 6/1 boasts the best career win rate of our three picks at 50%, which is exceptional in a double-digit field like this. Dylan Davis for Miguel Clement is a productive combination at Belmont, and the 62.95 TrackWiz rating places Pandagate solidly in the top tier of this field. A horse with a coin-flip win record going a route deserves show consideration, especially at a price that matches the win pick's morning line.

Race 11

9:35 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

The day's biggest field — 12 horses going 1⅛ miles on the turf — and TrackWiz sees a clear top cluster of four horses separating themselves from the rest of the pack.

win4Midnight ConcertoML 3/1

Midnight Concerto at 3/1 earns our top pick with an 86.08 TrackWiz rating and the backing of Kenneth McPeek, a trainer with a long history of peaking horses for exactly this type of stakes spot. Manuel Franco in the irons means this horse will get every opportunity at a route of turf ground, and a 31% career win rate in open stakes company is solid. The 54 average speed figure is right in line with the top contenders, and the 3/1 morning line offers genuine value relative to the rating.

place2Awesome CzechML 4/1

Awesome Czech at 4/1 is our place pick with an 84.62 TrackWiz rating that's barely a step behind the win pick. Ricardo Santana Jr. for Horacio De Paz means this horse will be in the right place at the right time — Santana is masterful at conserving energy in large-field routes. A 25% career win rate in a field this deep is competitive, and the 4/1 price is an honest reflection of a horse that's right there on the numbers.

show9Gallant GretaML 4/1

Gallant Greta at 4/1 rounds out our ticket with an 81.12 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field — and Flavien Prat on board for Michael Maker. This is a horse with legitimate turf credentials and a 26% career win rate that holds up well in a 12-horse stakes field. Prat's ability to navigate traffic in big fields and find openings late is exactly the skill set you want going 1⅛ on the turf, and the 4/1 price means show bettors get solid return on a well-supported selection.

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Bottom line: Belmont is giving us a genuine stakes card worth your full attention on October 24. Munnings Express and Shoot It True lead our top-rated plays, with Waralo and Grazie close behind as horses to build tickets around. The three free best bets — Midnightloveaffair, B Yutiful Carly, and Munnings Express — are a strong starting point, but the real value today lives in the premium races. Full analysis, pace projections, and exotic ticket structures are waiting for subscribers. Don't go in blind on a card like this.

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