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Belmont Park Picks & Predictions — October 23, 2026

October 23, 20269 racesAll Belmont Park picks

Belmont Park is open for business on Friday, October 23, and Mother Nature is making her presence felt. Rain is falling and 83°F temperatures have the grounds crew watching both surfaces closely. When water starts pooling at the Big Sandy, pace scenarios shift, speed figures get recalibrated, and horses with known wet-track form suddenly jump to the top of every ticket.

We've got a 9-race card to break down today, and it's a genuinely interesting mix — a pair of turf stakes, maiden sprints on dirt, and a couple of spots where we think the morning line has left some serious money on the table. Three races are free for every TrackWiz reader, with full premium analysis covering the remaining six behind the paywall.

The headline story today is the wet going. Rain at Belmont doesn't just muddy up the dirt — it can make a turf course come up soft or yielding, which is a completely different game than firm going. Keep a close eye on any surface switch announcements before post, and factor bias into every ticket you build today.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:10 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming opener where the TrackWiz ratings tell a stark story — one horse towers over the field, but a pair of lightly raced rivals with upside could make the exotics interesting.

win4McMoonML EVN

McMoon is the clear standout here, posting a TrackWiz rating of 90 — more than 34 points clear of the second-best horse in the field. That kind of gap in a maiden claimer is rare, and trainer George Weaver fields this one at even-money on the morning line for good reason. With an average speed figure of 54, McMoon has shown enough raw ability to handle this company, and Edgard Zayas gets the call — a rider who knows how to get maiden winners home on the front end at Belmont. Bet accordingly at any price.

place5Greek GodML 7/2

Greek God checks in as the second-highest rated horse in the field at 55.83, and trainer Mark Casse puts Samuel Marin up — a strong combination for a horse the morning line respects at 7/2. His avg speed of 54 matches McMoon on raw numbers, and if the favorite encounters any trouble at the break, Greek God is poised to pick up the pieces.

show6El WoodsieML 5/1

El Woodsie rounds out our top three at a 53.33 TrackWiz rating, and the Javier Castellano booking is the loudest signal in his corner — connections clearly believe he's capable. An avg speed of 53 keeps him right in the mix on a pace basis, and at 5/1 morning line, he adds value to any exacta or trifecta construction.

Race 2

5:43 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

This mile maiden special weight features a legitimate standout hiding in plain sight at 5/2, while the morning-line favorite and a Chad Brown runner create enough intrigue to keep the exacta price honest.

win5Cut Down the NetsML 5/2

Cut Down the Nets is our top selection and the best bet on the card through the first two races, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 80.77 — nearly 22 points ahead of the next-best horse. Trainer Amelia Green puts Samuel Marin in the irons, and with an avg speed of 54 over a route distance that should play to a presser's strengths, this filly is set up perfectly. The 5/2 morning line undervalues what the numbers are screaming — get in early if you can.

place2Just You BabyML 8/5

Just You Baby is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and posts a solid 59 TrackWiz rating with an avg speed of 54. Jorge Abreu sends her out with Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard — one of the sharpest jockey-trainer combinations at the Belmont fall meet — and she should be running into the placings at minimum. If Cut Down the Nets gets loose on the front end, Just You Baby looks like the most likely to close for second.

show6Frequency ShiftML 7/2

Frequency Shift represents the Chad Brown / Flavien Prat combo, and that's never a pairing to ignore in a maiden special weight at Belmont. Her TrackWiz rating of 55.83 puts her squarely in the mix, and while no prior speed figure is available, Brown horses often debut with more fitness than the public realizes. At 7/2, she's a legitimate show play and a key for the trifecta.

Race 3

6:16 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

A contentious allowance optional claiming sprint on the turf where the morning-line favorite and a big-priced closer are pulling in opposite directions — pace could be the deciding factor on this field.

win8River SeineML 3/1

River Seine tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and brings a 25% career win rate to a field where consistency matters. Trainer Michelle Nevin sends her out at 3/1 with Antonio Fresu, and an avg speed figure of 57 on the grass gives her a legitimate pace profile in a race where several speed horses could set things up for a closer. The numbers here are compelling — she's the class of this field by our metrics.

place5ObstreperousML 6/1

Obstreperous is the value angle in this race, posting a 67.71 TrackWiz rating and a strong 21% career win rate while going off at 6/1 on the morning line. She runs for trainer Michael Simone with Samuel Marin up, and that avg speed of 57 on turf puts her right on the benchmark for this distance. If River Seine draws extra pressure, Obstreperous is perfectly positioned to swoop in for second.

show4Queen MartinaML 2/1

Queen Martina is Bill Mott's representative here at 2/1 with Manuel Franco, and while her 58.33 TrackWiz rating slots her third in our analysis, you rarely fade a Mott-Franco combo in a graded spot. Her avg speed of 57 matches several others in the field, and at a price that implies heavy market confidence, she's a logical show anchor for trifecta plays.

Our three free previews today give you a nice cross-section of the card. We kick things off with McMoon in the Race 1 Maiden Claiming sprint — an even-money morning line that suggests a short price, but our TrackWiz rating of 90 says the favorite tag is well-earned. McMoon is exactly the type to exploit a speed-favoring wet-dirt track if the rail is playing true. In Race 2, Cut Down the Nets draws our eye in the Maiden Special Weight mile — a slightly longer trip that rewards horses with stamina, and the 5/2 morning line feels fair if the off-track doesn't expose any fitness questions. Round out the free card with River Seine in the Race 3 Allowance Optional Claiming on the turf — a 3/1 price for a horse our model grades at 87, which is the kind of gap where value lives.

The connective thread across all three free races is surface management. Whether the turf course remains open and how the dirt track is playing early will tell us a lot about which pace scenarios hold up. Early speed on a sealed, fast-playing off-track is one angle; a cuppy, tiring surface that rewards closers is another. Watch the first race or two closely before you build your exotic tickets — the track will tell you the story.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:49 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A full nine-horse maiden special weight sprint on dirt where two horses separate from the pack on the ratings, and the Chad Brown runner adds wild-card intrigue despite no speed figures on file.

win5MysticiousML 3/1

Mysticious earns our top nod here with a 84.38 TrackWiz rating — comfortably the best number in the field — and Rodolphe Brisset is a trainer who knows how to have a first-time runner ready to fire. Edgard Zayas climbs aboard at 3/1, and the avg speed of 54 gives Mysticious a credible baseline heading into this six-furlong sprint. This is a race where the ratings gap is large enough to be confident, even in maiden company.

place2Tia MelanieML 5/2

Tia Melanie posts a 57.5 TrackWiz rating and goes off at 5/2 as the co-second choice, with Miguel Clement saddling her and Samuel Marin in the saddle. Her avg speed of 55 is actually the best recorded figure among the horses who have prior races, which means she's shown real ability in the mornings. She's a natural fit for the exacta beneath Mysticious.

show4Limiting FactorML 9/2

Limiting Factor brings the Chad Brown / Flavien Prat combination — arguably the most dangerous trainer-jockey duo at the Belmont fall meet — and while no prior speed figure is on record, that's often a sign of a lightly raced horse with upside Brown is ready to unveil. At 9/2 with a 54.17 rating, she fits the show spot well and is the type who could easily leapfrog the field if she debuts with a big figure.

Race 5

7:23 PM EDT

Stakes · 7 fur · Turf

A star-studded stakes on the Belmont turf with a clear ratings leader, a Chad Brown contender at a short price, and a genuine longshot value case that could blow up the exotics.

win3Epic StyleML 7/2

Epic Style leads our TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and brings a 30% career win rate into a stakes field where consistency counts. Michael Stidham's charge gets Antonio Fresu in the irons at 7/2 on the morning line, and an avg speed of 56 on the grass keeps her pace-relevant over this seven-furlong turf trip. When a horse leads the field on both our rating and career win percentage in a stakes race, you have to respect that signal.

place7OversubscribedML 5/2

Oversubscribed is the Chad Brown morning-line favorite at 5/2, and Brown's 33% career win rate from this horse underscores the class angle. Flavien Prat takes the mount, and the TrackWiz rating of 65.6 slots her as a legitimate threat even if our model prefers Epic Style at the top. She's a horse who profiles as a pace stalker and should be finishing hard in the final furlong.

show2SomniumML 12/1

Somnium is our show selection and the value standout in the race — a 12/1 morning-line price on a horse with a 65.33 TrackWiz rating and a 28% career win rate is the kind of overlay that pays dividends in the trifecta. Ricardo Santana Jr. takes the mount for trainer Elizabeth Merryman, and an avg speed of 58 is actually the highest in the field — suggesting she's capable of running with these on pure ability. At that price, she's an essential third-leg piece.

Race 6

7:57 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong allowance on dirt features a genuine pace meltdown brewing at the top and two well-hidden overlays sitting just off the early speed — the morning-line favorite may be an illusion here.

win5Rome's ConquestML 10/1

Rome's Conquest is our best bet in this race and a standout value play at 10/1 morning line, posting a 76.88 TrackWiz rating — the best in the field — and a 42% career win rate that demands respect. Trainer Jon Arnett sends him out with Samuel Marin, and an avg speed of 57 is the highest recorded number among all eight horses, meaning he can match or exceed the pace on pure figures. At double-digit odds, this is the type of play that defines a profitable card.

place7Village PersonML 8/1

Village Person is another overlay we love here, rating 72.13 on TrackWiz and carrying a 37% career win rate — that's a horse who knows how to finish. Trainer Steve Klesaris puts Kendrick Carmouche up at 8/1, and an avg speed of 56 keeps him within range of the pace scenario. If Rome's Conquest draws all the attention on the board, Village Person can sneak in for a juicy exacta payoff.

show1Oil CapitalML 4/1

Oil Capital rates 66.95 on TrackWiz and posts a 16% career win rate — modest on the surface, but trainer Linda Rice excels at getting horses ready at Belmont and Jose Lezcano knows this track inside and out. At 4/1 morning line with an avg speed of 56, she fits the show spot perfectly and rounds out what could be a very profitable trifecta if both our top selections hit. Her consistency makes her the anchor.

Race 7

8:31 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A deep ten-horse allowance optional claiming mile on dirt where the morning-line favorite is significantly outrated by three TrackWiz contenders — expect fireworks in the wagering pools.

win6Scarlett's HaloML 6/1

Scarlett's Halo is our top selection at 6/1 with a 82.71 TrackWiz rating — the best number in the field — and Chad Brown conditions her with Flavien Prat taking the call. Her 10% career win rate is modest on paper, but that TrackWiz rating gap over the competition suggests she's been performing at a consistently high level regardless of trip luck. Brown's barn doesn't fire Prat in allowance races expecting to lose — this is a live threat at a workable price.

place10Minnesota MunnyML 8/1

Minnesota Munny checks in at 76.72 on our ratings and brings a strong 37% career win rate for trainer Linda Rice, who doubled up by also entering Adrian in this spot. Jose Lezcano takes this one, and while the avg speed of 52 is on the lower end for the field, the career win percentage tells a story about a horse that closes out races when things set up right. At 8/1, she's a strong place contender and a key in exotic wagers.

show2AdrianML 6/1

Adrian is the other Linda Rice runner at 6/1 with Manuel Franco, rating 75.55 on TrackWiz — just a tick below stablemate Minnesota Munny. With a 12% career win rate, she's not the most proven finisher, but the avg speed of 54 is solid and the Franco-Rice partnership at Belmont in the fall is one of the more quietly effective combinations on the grounds. She rounds out the exotics nicely and gives Rice a powerful one-two punch.

Race 8

9:05 PM EDT

Stakes · 7 fur · Turf

The first evening stakes features a horse with a jaw-dropping 80% career win rate going off at 4/1 — this field is deep and talented, but one runner's record is simply impossible to ignore.

win8GratefullyML 4/1

Gratefully is the most compelling pick on tonight's card. An 80% career win rate is extraordinary at any level of competition, and her TrackWiz rating of 85.62 confirms the raw ability behind that number. Robert Falcone Jr. sends her out at 4/1 with Umberto Rispoli up, and an avg speed of 57 on the turf keeps her in the pace conversation over seven furlongs. When a horse wins four out of five lifetime starts and the ratings agree, you trust the data.

place9AbientotML 10/1

Abientot is a genuine longshot value play at 10/1 with a 76.36 TrackWiz rating — that's a number that should be attracting much shorter odds in a field this competitive. Trainer Mark Casse puts Dylan Davis in the irons, and an avg speed of 57 on the turf matches several of the top contenders head-to-head on raw speed. At double-digit morning-line odds with a strong rating, she's the kind of place play that can return serious value in the exacta.

show7Love CervereML 5/2

Love Cervere is the morning-line co-favorite at 5/2 with a 42% career win rate — among the highest in the field — and Manuel Franco gets the mount for Miguel Clement. Her TrackWiz rating of 72.98 and avg speed of 57 both fit the profile of a stakes-quality turf sprinter, and the win percentage makes clear she's competitive when she fires. She's a solid show anchor and a horse to keep onside in the trifecta.

Race 9

9:38 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

The finale is a sprawling 13-horse turf stakes at a mile and an eighth — wide open on paper but our ratings isolate one horse running well clear of the field, with a double-digit sleeper lurking for big exotic payouts.

win7Crossover CapitalML 3/1

Crossover Capital is the pick of the day in Race 9 and arguably the most important bet on the entire Belmont card. A TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — tied for the highest on the card — combined with a 66% career win rate makes this a straightforward top selection despite the 3/1 morning line. Chad Brown conditions this one with Flavien Prat up, the most lethal turf combination in the game right now, and an avg speed of 55 over a route distance that favors a pressing style sets this up perfectly. Trust the rating, trust the trainer, trust the jockey.

place3AmericathegreatML 10/1

Americathegreat is the value case in the exotics, rating 72.64 on TrackWiz and going off at 10/1 morning line in a race where the public will likely stack up on shorter-priced runners. Trainer Mark Casse gives this one to Javier Castellano — a rider who has excelled at staying out of trouble in large field turf routes — and a 25% career win rate is exactly the kind of quiet consistency that produces place finishes at big prices. She's the trifecta key we want beneath Crossover Capital.

show11TulipML 8/1

Tulip is our show selection in this wide-open finale, rating 63.38 on TrackWiz and bringing a 20% career win rate for trainer William Walden. An avg speed of 53 over this longer trip is respectable in a 13-horse field, and at 8/1 morning line, she represents a meaningful payout opportunity in the trifecta and superfecta. In races with fields this large, having a horse in the 8/1 range who the ratings genuinely support is exactly the kind of edge TrackWiz is built to find.

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Bottom line for today at Belmont: the rain is the story, and every bet you make should have a wet-track lens on it. Our top free plays — McMoon, Cut Down the Nets, and River Seine — give every reader a strong starting point, while Crossover Capital headlines a premium card full of pace intrigue and exotic value. Good luck at the windows, and as always, bet smart. Become a TrackWiz subscriber to access the full 9-race breakdown before first post.

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