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Belmont Park Picks & Predictions — October 7, 2026

October 7, 20269 racesAll Belmont Park picks

Belmont Park is open for business on a warm Wednesday afternoon — partly cloudy skies and 89°F on the thermometer. That kind of late-season heat can be deceptive out here; the big Belmont turf course tends to play fast when it's been dry, and with multiple turf races on today's nine-race card, surface reading is going to be a real edge.

Today's card leans heavily on the grass — five of the nine races are contested on turf, ranging from a short 6½-furlong sprint in Race 8 to the marathon 1 5/16-mile distance in Race 4. Whether you're here for the dirt sprints or the turf routes, there's something to work with all afternoon.

Our TrackWiz ratings span a wide range today, which tells you something: a couple of these fields are genuinely competitive with real question marks at the top, while others look like cleaner betting opportunities. We'll break it all down.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:10 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/4 mi · Turf

Chad Brown sends out the class of the field on the Belmont turf, but the morning line favorite faces a pair of live longshots at big prices — this one has upset potential lurking underneath.

win3Weighted AverageML 6/5

Weighted Average is the standout in this field by a wide margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 89.71 that towers over the competition. Under Flavien Prat — one of the sharpest turf riders in the country — and conditioned by Chad Brown, whose turf win percentages are consistently elite, this horse checks every box at 1 1/4 miles on the grass. The 20% career win rate is respectable, and the average speed figure of 54 is the best or tied for best in the field. At 6/5 on the morning line, the price is short, but the profile is the right one.

place1Don't Jinx ItML 2/1

Don't Jinx It opens at 2/1 and carries a solid 63.37 rating despite a modest 11% career win mark — this horse runs consistently without always closing the deal. Trained by Miguel Clement and piloted by Manuel Franco, the connections know this distance well, and at 1 1/4 miles on turf, there's plenty of room to settle and rally. A place ticket here makes plenty of sense as a safety net underneath the favorite.

show6Amie's SymphonyML 8/1

Amie's Symphony at 8/1 is the value inclusion for exotics in this spot — a 61.39 rating and a 54 average speed figure put her squarely in the mix for a share of the prize. Javier Castellano is a turf specialist in his own right, and trainer Michael J. Trombetta regularly fires at Belmont grass routes. At nearly four times the price of the favorite, she rounds out a logical exacta and trifecta key.

Race 2

5:43 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight on the dirt with a cluster of closely matched, lightly raced horses — the top four in the morning line are separated by razor-thin margins and anyone can fire a career-best.

win6Very CleverML 2/1

Very Clever draws the rail of logic here — a 58.33 TrackWiz rating leads the field, Brad H. Cox is one of the premier maiden trainers in the country, and Manuel Franco gives this horse an A-list rider to boot. In maiden special weight company on the dirt, Cox-trained first or second-out horses frequently outrun their prices, and the 2/1 morning line suggests the market already respects the connections. The 54 average speed figure matches the top of the class.

place7MioruiltML 5/2

Mioruilt is an interesting piece here — rated 57.5, trained by Chad Brown, and ridden by Flavien Prat, this is another high-powered outfit that rarely sends out a horse without a real shot. The lack of an average speed figure suggests this one may be lightly raced or debuting, which in Brown's hands often means the bullet works are doing the talking. At 5/2, there's real place value if Very Clever fires and Mioruilt runs her race.

show1BadittudeML 3/1

Badittude comes in at 3/1 under Todd Pletcher and Ricardo Santana, Jr., a combination that has cashed plenty of tickets together. The 56.67 rating trails Very Clever narrowly, and a 54 average speed figure keeps Badittude competitive on raw numbers. In a maiden field this bunched up at the top, a show ticket is solid insurance.

Race 3

6:16 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Schlomo looms as a standout on paper in this 6 1/2-furlong claiming sprint, but the morning line doesn't reflect it — value bettors take note of the disconnect between rating and odds.

win5SchlomoML 4/1

Schlomo packs an 82.95 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field by a significant margin — yet opens at a very fair 4/1 on the morning line. That gap between performance rating and morning line price is exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis loves to surface. Manuel Franco in the irons is a significant positive, and the 54 average speed figure is the best among the speed horses in the field. A 15% career win rate is solid in claiming company, and the Ilkay Kantarmaci barn has runners that know how to compete.

place2ToscanoML 3/1

Toscano is the public's choice at 3/1 and owns a 71.55 rating to back up the confidence — second-best in the field. The 14% career win rate at a 3/1 price implies the market sees a legitimate threat, and Samuel Marin gives the horse a competent handler around the turn. A strong pace setup on a short sprint could set this one up to be closing late for the runner-up spot.

show1All the LuckML 15/1

All the Luck is a sneaky inclusion for the exotics at 15/1 — the 69.58 rating is third-best in the race, which is a notable disconnect from a double-digit morning line price. That's the definition of a value play in show position or as a trifecta key. The 8% career win rate is modest, but in a claiming field where the top horses are grouped closely, a single good trip can land this horse on the board.

Three races are open to everyone today, and they cover all three main race types you'll encounter at a mid-week meet — an allowance optional claimer on turf, a maiden special weight on dirt, and a dirt claimer. Weighted Average headlines the free card in Race 1 at morning-line odds of 6/5, drawing our highest TrackWiz rating of the free races at 89.71 — that's a number that commands respect. In the wide-open maiden race (Race 2), Very Clever is our top play at 2/1, though maiden races on dirt are always a little unpredictable. Closing out the free card, Schlomo posts an 82.95 rating in the Race 3 claiming sprint at 4/1 — that's potential value if the morning line holds anywhere close to post time.

One theme connecting these free picks: pace matters everywhere today. With warm conditions and firm turf likely on the grass races, expect early fractions to be honest. On the dirt side, watch for front-runners getting tested — the 6½-furlong distance in Race 3 can expose horses who try to steal it too cheaply.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:49 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 5/16 mi · Turf

Two heavy hitters square off at the top of this 1 5/16-mile turf allowance optional claimer — Iron Sight and Urgency rate nearly identically, setting up a match race with some live price alternatives lurking.

win6Iron SightML 8/5

Iron Sight is our top selection at 8/5, carrying the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.03. Chad Brown's turf horses at route distances are among the most reliable patterns in the game, and Flavien Prat — who also rode the win pick in Race 1 — has an exceptional record at this distance on Belmont grass. The 54 average speed figure and 16% career win rate are both solid, and at a long 1 5/16 miles, Brown-trained horses tend to have the fitness edge.

place4UrgencyML 5/1

Urgency rates just a whisker below Iron Sight at 84.17 and opens at 5/1 — that's a meaningful price difference for nearly the same performance profile. Manuel Franco gets the call for Linda Rice, a trainer who knows how to spot horses into the right spots. At 18% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54, Urgency is more than capable of running Iron Sight down if the pace sets up favorably.

show1MutaawidML 3/1

Mutaawid at 3/1 brings a 64.92 rating and a 20% career win percentage, which is the best win rate among the top choices in this field. Kendrick Carmouche gives the horse a steady ride, and trainer Amelia J. Green has a live one here at a reasonable price. In a race where the top two are so closely matched, Mutaawid could easily sneak into third if either of the favorites has any trouble.

Race 5

7:23 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A sprawling 12-horse maiden claiming sprint on the dirt that's hard to pin down — the top three on the morning line come from high-profile barns and hold a clear rating edge over the rest.

win4Audible JohnnyML 2/1

Audible Johnny tops our ratings in this race at 58.33 and opens as the 2/1 morning line choice — a rare combination of value and confidence. Trainer Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. is one of the sharpest trainers in the Northeast and sends this horse out with Micah J. Husbands aboard. The 54 average speed figure is the best in the field, and in a maiden claiming sprint, front-running ability backed by solid figures often gets the job done without a fight.

place1Max O NidasML 7/2

Max O Nidas brings a 55.83 rating and connects with Manuel Franco, one of the top pilots at Belmont Park. Trainer Michelle Nevin puts this horse in at 7/2, suggesting confidence in a field that's otherwise scattered. The 53 average speed figure is competitive, and Franco's ability to get a horse into position early in a sprint is a genuine tactical advantage.

show7HotshotmcgilicudyML 4/1

Hotshotmcgilicudy at 4/1 is one to respect from the Brad H. Cox barn — Cox doesn't typically ship horses to the Northeast without a live shot, and the 55.0 rating slots in just below the top two. No average speed figure on file could mean this horse is training toward a debut performance or has limited public form, which in Cox's hands tends to mean the private work tab is encouraging.

Race 6

7:57 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Hard Circle dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this 11-horse turf starter optional claimer, but Final Denile lurks at a big price as the sneaky second choice for players hunting value.

win3Hard CircleML 7/2

Hard Circle is the clear top pick here with an 86.35 rating — the highest in this field by double digits over the next horse. Under Flavien Prat for trainer Michael J. Maker, this horse has elite connections and a 55 average speed figure that leads the pace scenarios at 1 1/16 miles on the turf. The 7/2 morning line represents real value given how much this horse outrates the competition, and Maker's horses routinely run their numbers at Belmont.

place6Final DenileML 8/1

Final Denile is the standout value angle in this race at 8/1 — a 76.24 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the field, yet the public is largely ignoring this one at the morning line. Manuel Franco takes the mount for Horacio De Paz, and the 18% career win rate shows this horse knows how to finish the job. In a starter optional claiming turf race, a horse this well-rated at 8/1 is exactly the kind of overlay you want underneath your win pick in the exacta.

show11English LawML 6/1

English Law comes in at 6/1 with a 63.17 rating and a 55 average speed figure — the best raw speed number in the field. Jose Lezcano has been sharp around Belmont's turf course, and trainer Michael Miceli slots this one in with legitimate expectations. At a fair price and the top speed figure, English Law rounds out the trifecta and makes sense as a show play for conservative bettors.

Race 7

8:31 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

Come Full Circle looks like the class of this one-mile dirt starter allowance, but a 50% career winner and a sneaky pace setup make this race more competitive than the ratings suggest on the surface.

win8Come Full CircleML 7/2

Come Full Circle is the standout, posting an 86.35 TrackWiz rating that leads this field by a country mile. Manuel Franco picks up the mount for Joe Sharp, and a 54 average speed figure puts this horse on top of the pace scenario at one mile on the dirt. The 7/2 price is fair for a horse this well-rated — it's not a chalk play, which means there's genuine overlay here if you believe the numbers.

place2Who's Your ZaddyML 8/1

Who's Your Zaddy opens at 8/1 with a 59.6 rating — the second-best figure in this field — and represents serious place value for exotics players. Trainer Orlando Noda and jockey Samuel Marin bring solid connections, and the 16% career win rate is respectable in a starter allowance field. If Come Full Circle gets caught up in a pace battle, this closer profile could be sitting on a career-best at a juicy price.

show3Dinner RoyaleML 6/1

Dinner Royale brings a 25% career win rate to the table — one of the more impressive records in this race — along with a 55.59 rating that slots in solidly. Ricardo Santana, Jr. rides for Amelia J. Green, and the 6/1 morning line suggests the market respects this horse's record even if the raw ratings put her third. That kind of experience and win rate in starter company is a genuine asset when the race gets honest.

Race 8

9:05 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

A large, competitive turf sprint with some eye-catching profiles — Tuthilltown headlines on the ratings, but Mobile's standout speed figures and perfect record make this one genuinely intriguing.

win12TuthilltownML 3/1

Tuthilltown earns our top nod with an 84.94 TrackWiz rating — second only to Aperitif in raw figure, but the full profile tips the scale. Dylan Davis rides for Michael Miceli, and an average speed figure of 57 puts this horse in elite company in this field. The 3/1 morning line is a fair reflection of talent, and at 6 1/2 furlongs on turf, a horse sitting on a 57 speed figure should have enough horsepower to handle this starter allowance group.

place4AperitifML 8/1

Aperitif at 8/1 is the prime value play in this race — a 76.58 TrackWiz rating that's the second-highest in the field, yet the public has the morning line nearly three times the price of Tuthilltown. Javier Castellano takes the reins for Elizabeth M. Merryman, and a 57 average speed figure matches the top horses. This is exactly the kind of horse you want in your exacta underneath — competitive figures, live connections, and an overlooked price.

show9Garden of GraceML 6/1

Garden of Grace comes in at 6/1 with a 65.57 rating and a 56 average speed figure — both respectable for a 6 1/2-furlong turf sprint. Flavien Prat gets the mount for Richard E. Dutrow, Jr., and in a race this spread out across a 12-horse field, a horse with Prat in the irons at a fair price is a legitimate show ticket. The 7% career win rate is modest, but speed figures and jockey are the two most predictive variables in a sprint, and this horse has both.

Race 9

9:38 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A deep 12-horse turf starter optional claiming mile with legitimate contenders stacked at the top — Ori, Griselda, and Lucky Louisa form a formidable top three, but the morning lines offer real spread for exotic players.

win12OriML 2/1

Ori is our top selection at 2/1 morning line, backed by the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.44. Javier Castellano is one of the most accomplished turf riders in North American racing, and trainer Mark E. Casse has a deep history winning with horses at this level on the grass. The 25% career win rate is legitimately strong, and a 54 average speed figure at one mile on turf makes this horse the complete package. At 2/1, there's not a ton of value, but the profile justifies the favoritism.

place6GriseldaML 3/1

Griselda is the interesting angle here — an 82.12 rating that's a razor's edge below Ori, yet available at 3/1 on the morning line. Manuel Franco picks up the ride for Linda Rice, a trainer who has this horse in the right spot in a starter optional claimer. The 55 average speed figure is the best in the field and a 20% career win rate backs it up. If Ori gets stuck in traffic in a 12-horse field, Griselda has the raw tools to capitalize.

show1Lucky LouisaML 8/1

Lucky Louisa is a fascinating inclusion at 8/1 — a 79.79 rating that's third-best in the race and a 50% career win rate that stands out like a beacon on the program. Luis Raul Rivera, Jr. gets the call for Michael V. Simone, and that win percentage in career starts is the kind of stat that makes you look twice at a 8/1 price. A horse who wins half her races deserves more respect than this morning line implies, and she's a prime show bet and trifecta piece.

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Bottom line: Weighted Average is the marquee free play of the day, and the turf-heavy card rewards anyone who does their homework on surface conditions. If you want the full picture — pace scenarios, exotic angles, and plays in all nine races including Iron Sight, Hard Circle, and Ori — the complete breakdown is waiting for subscribers. Check out TrackWiz Premium and make today count.

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