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Belmont Park Picks & Predictions — October 4, 2026

October 4, 202610 racesAll Belmont Park picks

It's a warm, muggy Sunday at Belmont Park — partly cloudy with temperatures sitting at 90°F — and that heat could play a real role on both the dirt and the turf this afternoon. Ten races are on the board, spanning sprints and routes, maiden fields and allowance company, with the dirt and turf both getting a thorough workout today.

The card leans heavily toward the turf, with five of the ten races run on the green. That matters, because a baked, firm turf course in this kind of heat tends to favor horses with tactical speed — runners who can sit just off a contested pace and pounce late. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets today.

Overall, this is a card with real depth. There's a clear standout or two at the top of the ratings, but several races where the morning line feels vulnerable and value is hiding in plain sight. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:35 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden optional claimer full of first-timers and lightly raced types makes this opener a wide-open puzzle — TrackWiz ratings separate a clear top cluster but the margins are tight enough to keep this competitive.

win7Jackpot JackieML 3/1

Jackpot Jackie tops our TrackWiz ratings at 56.67 and draws the services of Paco Lopez, one of the sharpest pilots in the New York colony. Todd Pletcher is a perennial leader in first-out win percentage, and this 3/1 morning line suggests the connections have genuine confidence. At six furlongs on the dirt, a Pletcher-Lopez combo with strong ratings is exactly the kind of angle that holds up in maiden openers.

place8Nevah BettahML 4/1

Nevah Bettah comes in with a solid 55.0 TrackWiz rating and gets Manuel Franco in the irons — a jockey who consistently fires in spots like this for Jeremiah Englehart. Englehart has a knack for placing maiden runners effectively, and the 4/1 morning line represents fair value for a horse with legitimate upside.

show6Its Saturday NightML 9/2

Its Saturday Night sits just behind the top two at 54.17 on our rating scale, and Kendrick Carmouche knows how to rate a horse through a six-furlong pace. At 9/2 on the morning line, this Chad Summers trainee is worth including in exacta and trifecta coverage as a live show option.

Race 2

5:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Save Us Melania comes in as a heavy morning-line favorite at 6/5, but Vekomancer's superior TrackWiz rating sets up an intriguing upset scenario — this claiming sprint could hinge on whether the favorite's class holds against a sharper speed figure.

win8VekomancerML 7/2

Vekomancer leads the field outright with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and averages 56 speed — best in the race by a clear margin. Brad Cox is one of the top trainers in the country, and Manuel Franco takes the call at a juicy 7/2 morning line, making this a genuine value play against the chalk. A 22% career win rate adds to the profile of a horse that consistently performs when asked.

place4Save Us MelaniaML 6/5

Save Us Melania is tough to ignore at a 26% career win rate — that's elite production — and Ricardo Santana Jr. is a perfect fit for a horse that wants to press the pace. Linda Rice has her horse at 6/5 for a reason, and while we like Vekomancer on top, Save Us Melania is a near-certainty for the exacta at this level.

show6TimiaML 15/1

Timia is a legitimate sleeper at 15/1 on the morning line despite a 67.21 TrackWiz rating that ranks third in the field. Paco Lopez picks up the mount for Wayne Potts, and at this price in a claiming sprint, Timia offers excellent show-ticket and trifecta value for bettors willing to go deeper in the field.

Race 3

5:38 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

Undercover Agent dominates the ratings in this maiden claiming turf sprint, but a large, wide-open field of twelve — with several Chad Brown and George Weaver horses — creates real exacta and trifecta opportunities at big prices.

win3Undercover AgentML 5/1

Undercover Agent is the clear class figure here with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating, well ahead of the rest of the field. Brad Cox sends this one out with Manuel Franco aboard — a combination that fires at a high clip at Belmont, especially on the turf. With an average speed of 56 and the top rating in a maiden claiming field, this is the kind of horse that should control the pace scenario and be very difficult to beat.

place5ChannelviewML 6/1

Channelview runs for George Weaver and draws Ricardo Santana Jr. — a powerful barn-jockey combo that absolutely targets these spots. The 76.84 TrackWiz rating is second best in the field, and at 6/1 on the morning line, there's excellent place value here for bettors who want the top two covered in exactas.

show2Empress New GrooveML 7/2

Empress New Groove at 7/2 is the public's second choice and brings a 58.54 TrackWiz rating into the field for Saffie Joseph Jr. with Paco Lopez riding. She's an obvious show-ticket anchor, and in a 12-horse maiden field on the turf, keeping her in your trifectas provides a solid floor for exotics.

The first three races on the card are open to all TrackWiz readers, and they cover a nice range of conditions — two dirt sprints bookending a maiden turf test in Race 3. Jackpot Jackie opens the day in the Maiden Optional Claiming at 3/1 on the morning line, while Vekomancer draws our attention in Race 2's six-and-a-half furlong claiming sprint with a TrackWiz rating north of 86. If you're only watching a couple of early races, Race 2 is the one to zero in on.

Race 3 shifts to the turf, where Undercover Agent (5/1 morning line, 84.17 rating) is our top selection in a maiden claiming field. Turf maiden races at longer prices are notoriously tricky, but Undercover Agent's profile stands out from the rest of this field, and at 5/1 there's genuine value attached if the price holds. The first three races give you a solid foundation for your afternoon — use them to warm up before the premium card heats up in the back half.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:11 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Chad Brown wheels out the 7/5 morning-line favorite in a maiden special weight turf route, but the rating gap in this field isn't as wide as that price suggests — making this a race where the second and third choices could outrun their odds.

win7SellonthenewsML 7/5

Sellonthenews opens as the morning-line favorite at 7/5 and carries a 59.33 TrackWiz rating, tops in this maiden special weight turf field. Chad Brown is one of the best turf trainers in the country, and Manuel Franco gets the call — you simply can't ignore that combination in a Belmont turf maiden. At 1 1/16 miles, Brown's grass horses tend to improve with experience and distance, making this a logical top choice.

place11AttachmentML 9/2

Attachment lands here for George Weaver and comes in with a 54.17 rating and an average speed of 57 — second best in the field on that measure. Samuel Marin takes the mount, and at 9/2 on the morning line this is a horse that can sit just off any pace and pounce in the stretch on Belmont's sweeping turf course.

show2Tasha's PrideML 6/1

Tasha's Pride at 6/1 brings a 51.67 TrackWiz rating and draws Kendrick Carmouche, who consistently outperforms on grass at Belmont. With no career win recorded yet, this is still a first-time or lightly raced runner for Cherie DeVaux, but the overall profile warrants show inclusion in trifectas — especially at a price that offers real value.

Race 5

6:41 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A tight three-horse war shapes up at the top of this allowance optional claiming dirt route — Yo Daddy, Georgia Magic, and Tip Top Thomas are separated by just a couple of rating points, making pace and trip the deciding factors.

win3Yo DaddyML 5/2

Yo Daddy sits atop our TrackWiz ratings at 86.74 and is trained by Linda Rice, who has quietly been one of the sharpest conditioners on the New York circuit. Jose Lezcano gets the mount at a 5/2 morning line that provides fair value in a competitive spot. A 29% career win rate tells you this horse knows how to close the deal, and the 1 1/16-mile dirt distance suits a class horse at the allowance optional claiming level.

place6Georgia MagicML 7/2

Georgia Magic is nearly inseparable from our top pick at 86.35 on the TrackWiz scale, and Manuel Franco is one of the best closers in the game. Steven Schauer places this horse confidently at 7/2, and with a 29% career win rate, Georgia Magic could just as easily be on top — she's the strongest place play on the card and should go in all your exacta combinations.

show5Tip Top ThomasML 3/1

Tip Top Thomas stands out with a remarkable 44% career win rate — best in the field by a wide margin — and Ricardo Santana Jr. knows how to ride a horse of this caliber for Todd Pletcher. The 84.39 TrackWiz rating is third in the race, and at 3/1 on the morning line, this is a live show option that's fully capable of winning outright.

Race 6

7:14 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

Escapades dominates the ratings in this starter optional claiming turf sprint, but a deep 12-horse field on the green means the pace scenario could get complicated — look for Strategic Reserve and Sod Siren to figure prominently in the stretch.

win2EscapadesML 3/1

Escapades posts an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field by a meaningful margin — and averages 57 speed figures along with a strong 25% career win rate. Ricardo Santana Jr. takes the mount for Linda Rice, a trainer who excels placing horses in exactly these starter optional claiming spots. At 3/1, this is a well-priced favorite with the form to justify confidence.

place5Strategic ReserveML 6/1

Strategic Reserve is an eye-catching place play with a 40% career win rate — third highest in the race — and gets Edgard Zayas for Saffie Joseph Jr. The 73.41 TrackWiz rating ranks second in the field, and Joseph's barn is consistently sharp with horses coming back at this level. At 6/1, there's clear overlay value for anyone looking to make this a top exacta partner.

show7Sod SirenML 4/1

Sod Siren posts the best average speed figure in the race at 59 — noticeably ahead of the field — and a 33% career win rate that screams competitive. Dylan Davis picks up the mount for Saffie Joseph Jr., who saddles two horses here, and at 4/1 Sod Siren offers strong show value and deserves a place in your trifecta construction.

Race 7

7:48 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Factory Setting is a clear standout on ratings in this allowance turf route, but Morning Prayer at 4/1 and Considerate City at 8/1 offer legitimate exacta depth — this shapes up as a race for second money behind a formidable top choice.

win8Factory SettingML 5/2

Factory Setting is our top-rated horse in Race 7 at 87.81 — the highest rating on the card through the first seven races — and gets Manuel Franco for Chad Brown, arguably the single most potent trainer-jockey combination in New York turf racing. At 5/2 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse with a 14% career win rate that likely understates true ability at this level. Brown's allowance turf horses consistently run big with top riders aboard, and this profile demands respect.

place6Morning PrayerML 4/1

Morning Prayer draws Ricardo Santana Jr. for trainer Thomas Morley and comes in with a 74.49 TrackWiz rating — second in the field. A 16% career win rate in allowance company is respectable, and at 4/1 this is the natural partner to Factory Setting in exactas. Santana is riding at a high level right now, and Morley does solid work placing horses in these Belmont turf spots.

show1Considerate CityML 8/1

Considerate City opens at 8/1 with a 56.13 TrackWiz rating and gets Christopher Elliott for trainer James Ferraro in a spot that could set up kindly for a closer. What stands out here is the pace scenario — with several horses likely to press hard early, Considerate City has the profile to be running hard late and grab a piece at a price worth playing.

Race 8

8:23 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A fascinating pace duel brews in this allowance optional claiming dirt sprint — Captain Cook is the 7/5 morning-line chalk, but Two Eagles River's superior TrackWiz rating at 9/2 sets up one of the best value plays of the afternoon.

win6Two Eagles RiverML 9/2

Two Eagles River tops the field with an 84.90 TrackWiz rating despite going off at 9/2 on the morning line — that's a significant overlay against a horse with only a 71.21 rating holding the favoritism. Kendrick Carmouche takes the mount for Rob Atras, and with a 21% career win rate in a field this competitive, the numbers strongly support this as the best bet of the race. At 6.5 furlongs on the dirt, pace will be crucial, and Two Eagles River looks well-suited to sit just off the leaders and pounce.

place1SuremeanttoobeML 12/1

Suremeanttoobe is a sneaky-good place play at 12/1 on the morning line, carrying a 71.91 TrackWiz rating — actually the highest average speed in the field at 56 alongside Captain Cook. Michael Trombetta does excellent work with dirt sprinters, Paco Lopez takes the call, and a 29% career win rate suggests this horse consistently competes. The morning-line price looks generous for what the data shows.

show2Captain CookML 7/5

Captain Cook is the crowd's favorite at 7/5, and while we have Two Eagles River on top, ignoring the Pletcher horse entirely would be a mistake. A 22% career win rate and Ricardo Santana Jr. in the irons for one of the most successful trainers in history makes this a logical show hedge — and if the pace unfolds in his favor, Captain Cook is more than capable of reversing the ratings.

Race 9

8:58 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

Counterintuitive comes in as a dominant figure on ratings in this allowance turf route, but Majaz and Nonconsecutivetrms offer legitimate underneath value — this race has the feel of a win single with live exotics underneath.

win2CounterintuitiveML 2/1

Counterintuitive leads the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — best of the day's card at this point — and a 33% career win rate that is exceptional in allowance company. Chad Brown sends this one out with Manuel Franco, and at 2/1 on the morning line this is about as clean a win selection as you'll find on the card. On a 1 1/8-mile turf route at Belmont, Brown's horses with Franco are a near-automatic play at any reasonable price.

place6MajazML 9/2

Majaz draws Javier Castellano for Mark Casse and carries a 71.66 TrackWiz rating with a 25% career win rate — legitimate credentials for a place score. At 9/2 on the morning line, there's real value using Majaz underneath Counterintuitive in exactas, and Casse regularly places horses to hit the board even when they can't quite catch the top horse.

show10NonconsecutivetrmsML 4/1

Nonconsecutivetrms comes in at 4/1 for trainer Brendan Walsh with Dylan Davis taking the mount — a combination worth noting in a turf mile-and-an-eighth. The 69.93 TrackWiz rating is third in the field, and Walsh is a sharp conditioner who targets spots carefully. Show and trifecta inclusion is warranted at this price.

Race 10

9:33 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

Instability leads on ratings but a 12-horse turf mile field gives several live horses at double-digit morning-line prices a shot — Shirl's Soul Town and Repentless both figure at big enough prices to make this an exotic player's dream closer.

win3InstabilityML 5/2

Instability tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.69 and draws Manuel Franco for Chad Brown — that pairing on the Belmont turf is about as reliable a win angle as exists in New York racing. A 25% career win rate in allowance company is solid, and at 5/2 on the morning line this represents a fair price for the class of the field. Brown's horses at one mile on the turf at Belmont are worth a hard look every single time.

place11Shirl's Soul TownML 8/1

Shirl's Soul Town is a prime value play at 8/1 with a 79.79 TrackWiz rating — second in a deep 12-horse field — and a standout 33% career win rate. Kendrick Carmouche takes the call for Linda Rice, and this horse averages the second-best speed figure in the race at 57. At this morning-line price with those credentials, Shirl's Soul Town is an excellent place bet and a key part of any exacta strategy.

show6RepentlessML 8/1

Repentless at 8/1 posts a 79.47 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate for trainer Kelsey Danner, with Samuel Marin up. The average speed of 55 is competitive in this field, and the morning-line price creates value for bettors targeting the trifecta. With Instability likely drawing most of the action, Repentless could return generous show prices if she runs to her rating.

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Bottom line: Counterintuitive is the day's top-rated pick and the name to build around in your multi-race wagers. On the free side, Vekomancer and Undercover Agent offer solid angles with real upside at their morning line prices. It's a full, competitive card at Belmont, and the turf-heavy back half is where the money is made. Subscribers get the complete picture — pace scenarios, exotic breakdowns, and every angle — at TrackWiz premium. Good luck out there.

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